The hottest Diplomacy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top World Politics Topics

Israel and Iran: "Don't"

Diane Francis • 819 implied HN points • 15 Apr 24
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Iran recently launched an attack on Israel using missiles and drones, but it was unsuccessful and failed to hit any targets. This shows a weakness in Iran's military capabilities.
  2. The attack was a response to an Israeli bombing in Damascus, which Iran views as a violation of its sovereignty. This highlights ongoing tensions between the two countries.
  3. Both nations seem to be stuck in a cycle of retaliation, where one action prompts a reaction, but the effectiveness of these responses is questionable. It raises concerns about the escalation of conflict in the region.

Iran War, Day Three. All hell breaks loose.

The Cosmopolitan Globalist • 11 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The war escalated sharply as US and Israeli strikes hit Iranian targets, killing and injuring many people, including several US service members, while Iran launched missiles and drones in retaliation. The fighting also involved friendly-fire losses of US jets and reports of senior Iranian figures killed.
  2. The conflict is spilling across the region: Hezbollah fired into northern Israel and Israel hit Lebanon hard, Gulf energy infrastructure was struck (including an Aramco refinery and Qatar’s LNG facility), and regional powers and European countries are preparing to defend partners or target Iran’s missile and drone capabilities.
  3. There is a high risk of wider instability and asymmetric attacks, with Iran declaring a global "fire and revenge" campaign, authorities warning about lone-wolf and cyber attacks, and angry rhetoric and talk of possible US ground forces raising the chance of further escalation.

‘Western dominance has ended’, EU foreign-policy chief admits, warning of ‘West against the Rest’ geopolitics

Geopolitical Economy Report • 1116 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The era of Western dominance has ended, according to the EU foreign-policy chief. Europe should not see the world as 'the West against the Rest'.
  2. Global geopolitical tensions could push Europe into a bleak future. Europe must improve relations with the Global South to avoid becoming geopolitically irrelevant.
  3. In international forums like the UN, Europe often aligns with the US against the majority of countries from the Global South. This shows a stark division in voting patterns.

Jia Qingguo: a rare opening for steadier China–U.S. relations in 2026

Pekingnology • 56 implied HN points • 13 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The current U.S. approach puts tariffs at the center while deliberately avoiding the sharpest political flashpoints and publicly offering cooperation.
  2. That mix has created a rare opening for steadier ties — suspended tariff actions, resumed talks, planned leader visits, and possible cooperation on practical issues like AI risks, ceasefires, and trade.
  3. The stability is fragile because Congress, U.S. bureaucrats, allies, and Taiwan-related incidents could quickly reignite tensions, so crisis-management channels, downplaying ideology, and focused cooperation are urgently needed.

What The US Is Doing To Ukraine Is Far Worse Than Yalta

Phillips’s Newsletter • 254 implied HN points • 16 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Diplomacy
  1. The U.S. is pressuring Ukraine to give up territory, resources, and people to Russia, which effectively helps Putin’s dictatorship instead of defending Ukrainian democracy.
  2. Comparing this to Yalta is misleading because Roosevelt was constrained by Soviet control and intended to keep fighting for Polish freedom, while today the U.S. has real options to support Ukraine but is not using them.
  3. What’s happening now is unprecedented and runs against public opinion, as it strengthens an authoritarian regime when the U.S. could be helping Ukraine resist and preserve democracy.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Second Breakfast: Trump’s National Security Strategy

ChinaTalk • 237 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Diplomacy
  1. A National Security Strategy (NSS) outlines the administration's goals and how to use various national powers to achieve them. It's meant as a clear guide for the public, not just a defense plan.
  2. The new NSS has some bold ideas, especially around economic strength and deterrence. However, it also sends confusing messages to allies about what the U.S. expects of them and its own military priorities.
  3. The language and ideas in the NSS sometimes echo China's and Russia's messaging, which raises concerns about its implications. Some of the concepts seem overly simplistic and not well thought out.

Wu Xinbo Says We Are Witnessing Yet Another Turning Point in China–U.S. Relations

Pekingnology • 113 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The United States is undergoing a deep strategic recalibration: it is retrenching in some areas (notably Europe) while selectively expanding influence in the Western Hemisphere and the Indo‑Pacific, with a stronger focus on economic returns and reallocating resources.
  2. The 2025 tariff fight and China’s use of export controls exposed limits in Washington’s toolkit and showed China’s resilience and strategic leverage, nudging both sides toward a more pragmatic balance of competition and controlled cooperation.
  3. The long-term momentum toward cross‑Strait reunification is increasing, so the United States needs to rethink its Taiwan policy to avoid military confrontation and find ways to protect its interests as the situation evolves.

Why Russia Can't Win, Part Two

Diane Francis • 859 implied HN points • 21 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Ukrainians have a strong sense of identity and civil society, showing their pride through cultural differences from Russia. They resist oppression and demonstrate unity in protest and defense.
  2. Despite losing part of their territory, Ukraine remains a rich country with valuable resources and intellectual talent. This strength enables them to innovate and fight back against Russian aggression.
  3. The conflict has shown that Ukraine's determination to fight is unwavering, and many allies in Europe recognize the urgency to support them against an existential threat.

Things Worth Remembering: ‘A New World Order’

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2851 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Diplomacy
  1. George H.W. Bush's 'Chicken Kiev' speech was seen as controversial at the time but is now viewed as an exemplary model of diplomacy.
  2. The speech illustrated how America could support democracy in other countries without taking on the role of a global policeman.
  3. Reflecting on past leadership can help us understand and navigate current political issues more effectively.

War Analysis

Black Mountain Analysis • 2397 implied HN points • 25 May 23
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Artemovsk has fallen, marking the beginning of the collapse of Ukraine.
  2. Russian military strategy is goal-driven and not date/time-driven.
  3. The war efforts in Ukraine are financed in Rubel, allowing Russia to produce war equipment without financial concerns.

Secret U.S. Army Lab Shipped Live Anthrax to 194 Facilities Worldwide for Over a Decade

Who is Robert Malone • 11 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. A U.S. Army lab repeatedly failed to inactivate anthrax and ended up shipping live spores to nearly 200 labs over more than a decade, revealing major biosafety and quality-control breakdowns.
  2. The facility’s large production scale, advanced capabilities, and its ties to the 2001 anthrax investigation raise real dual-use concerns and unanswered questions about whether oversight and stated defensive needs matched what was produced.
  3. An AI-driven, six-layer verification approach could help spot warning signs and distinguish defensive work from misuse, but it will need transparency, independent oversight, and broad international cooperation to be effective.

The glory of Europe

Striking 13 • 1577 implied HN points • 15 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The European Union navigated complex political challenges with a mix of negotiation and compromise, showcasing the effectiveness of careful diplomacy over populism.
  2. The European Union's core principle of uniting economies to prevent war is facing challenges from rising populism, border control issues, and shifts in global trade dynamics.
  3. The recent events surrounding Ukraine's EU membership aspirations highlight the importance of the European Union's approach to politics, emphasizing peace, compromise, and true freedom.

Groundhog Day?

Comment is Freed • 73 implied HN points • 27 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Negotiations over Ukraine keep cycling through the same pattern: proposals look promising but stall on the hardest issues, especially territory, leaving Ukrainians frustrated and vulnerable.
  2. Donald Trump and his envoys are driving a new peace push with trilateral talks, but Putin appears willing to engage in talks mainly to avoid blame rather than to make major concessions.
  3. Zelensky is trying to stay constructive so any failure looks like Russia's fault, yet without stronger pressure on Moscow the same stalemate may repeat; the Abu Dhabi talks could address substance but the crucial last 10% is still unresolved.

Beijing appears to warn it could intercept Evergreen ships transporting HIMARS to Taiwan, in war or peace.

Pekingnology • 150 implied HN points • 02 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. China signaled it might intercept and seize civilian cargo ships carrying HIMARS or other military supplies, and presented such actions as lawful both in wartime and peacetime.
  2. The warning was unusually specific and was pushed through multiple official channels — coast guard and PLA posters, state media, and a foreign affairs account — making the scenario explicitly highlighted.
  3. Because that specific message may not have registered widely outside Chinese-language outlets, there is an information gap that could increase the risk of miscalculation if an interception happens.

Get the “Chinese Trump” to the White House

Pekingnology • 169 implied HN points • 27 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Ryan Chen's January U.S. trip is a rare chance for a low-risk, high-reach, de-politicised media moment that could be staged as a short, tightly managed meet-and-greet.
  2. Chen's persona deliberately avoids policy and mainstream outlets have already profiled him, which lowers the chance the encounter would become a serious diplomatic symbol.
  3. A playful, photo-ready meeting could humanize U.S.-China narratives and generate the short clips and headlines Trump values, so organizers would gain outsized attention for little strategic cost.

Why the Pantomime? Its Always Been About Defending Putin

Phillips’s Newsletter • 157 implied HN points • 29 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Diplomacy
  1. The long-running negotiations between the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia have mostly been a pantomime that ends up defending Putin's position.
  2. Trump publicly framed Putin as generous and wanting Ukraine to succeed, presenting a conciliatory image of him.
  3. Close insiders and advisers believe the opposite — that Putin aims to seize all of Ukraine — and that the public praise is likely misleading.

The Miracle Man of Suez

Kvetch • 43 implied HN points • 07 Feb 26
💾 History Diplomacy
  1. A single leader's stubborn, relentless will can push an audacious engineering project past political and technical barriers.
  2. Monumental success required new machines, massive labor, and clever engineering, but it came at a terrible human cost and nearly bankrupted local authorities.
  3. Selling shares to thousands of small investors can raise huge sums and build public support. But relying on that and on personal confidence while downplaying engineering and financial risks can lead to ruin.

INSIDE TRUMP AND NETANYAHU’S MEETING ON IRAN

Seymour Hersh • 29 implied HN points • 19 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Benjamin Netanyahu made a hurried, urgent trip to Washington to meet President Trump on February 11, arriving without his wife as a sign of urgency.
  2. Israeli officials believe Iran smuggled as much as 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to about 60% into tunnels under the Isfahan nuclear site before US B-2 bombers struck three main facilities last June.
  3. The meeting put further attacks on Iran and even discussions of regime change on the table, with Netanyahu framing his position in moral terms drawn from Genesis.

Just What Do Trump's "Trade Deals" Consist of? Nothing

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 261 implied HN points • 19 Nov 25
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. These so‑called trade "deals" are mostly PR and consultation clauses without independent dispute resolution, so they don’t create binding commitments or stop arbitrary unilateral actions.
  2. Countries like Malaysia sign to protect market access and get advance warning, but they simultaneously diversify and derisk by keeping ties with China and other partners instead of fully aligning with the U.S.
  3. Because these agreements don’t provide long‑term certainty, they erode foreign confidence in the U.S. and risk hurting American strategic and economic interests unless replaced by stable institutions and enforceable mechanisms.

It's World War III

Diane Francis • 1678 implied HN points • 06 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The conflicts in Israel and Ukraine are seen as part of a larger world war driven by Russia. Putin's actions are creating unrest globally, not just in those regions.
  2. Russia uses various tactics, including hybrid warfare, to destabilize nations and influence events. This includes supporting groups like Hamas and using misinformation.
  3. A unified global response is necessary to counter Russia's influence. Without international cooperation, the ongoing conflicts and instability will persist.

Peace Through Profit: The Problem with Steve Witkoff’s Ukraine Strategy

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 222 implied HN points • 03 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. A prominent U.S. dealmaker is promoting a "peace through profit" plan that aims to end the war by turning Russia and Ukraine into business partners.
  2. He argues that shared economic gains and interdependence would create incentives for lasting peace because everyone would benefit.
  3. Critics warn this approach may be naive since Putin’s inner circle could have different motives and secretive ties with Russian elites might undermine or corrupt any deal.

Who Does Europe Call If It Wants to Talk to the United States?

Drezner’s World • 943 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Europe faced challenges in making foreign policy decisions due to internal disagreements, but eventually reached an agreement by employing strong tactics.
  2. The European Union managed to secure financial support for Ukraine despite obstacles from Hungary by applying pressure and using negotiation strategies effectively.
  3. The United States encountered difficulties in passing aid packages for Ukraine as negotiations were linked to immigration policies, ultimately leading to a stalled process and uncertain outcomes.

Don't Negotiate with Terrorists

Heterodox STEM • 71 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
🌐 International Diplomacy
  1. Long negotiations with Iran have failed and allowed the regime to advance its nuclear program and carry out violent attacks. Treating such actors as negotiable partners has not produced security or reform.
  2. U.S. political leadership has been compromised by personal interests, corruption, and strategic deals, which leads to weak or inconsistent responses to threats. Those influences discourage decisive action even when national security is at stake.
  3. Many foreign-policy elites are guided by optimistic ideological models that downplay militant Islam and treat all conflicts as solvable by diplomacy. That worldview blinds policymakers to real risks and makes them stick with failing approaches instead of reassessing strategy.

Dementia-Ridden Cognitively-Addled Chaos-Monkey Causes Chaos at Alaska Summit

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 622 implied HN points • 17 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Diplomacy
  1. A ceasefire in Ukraine could stop the fighting, but giving up more territory to Russia might encourage further aggression. It's important to be cautious about what compromises are made.
  2. The situation in Ukraine's conflict reflects a shift in power to European nations, as U.S. influence lessens. Europe now has to decide how committed and unified they are in supporting Ukraine.
  3. Understanding the historical context of the conflict is crucial. Russia's view of Ukraine is rooted in history and past governance, which complicates the current situation and makes resolution challenging.

Secretary Marco Rubio remarks - Munich Security Conference

Who is Robert Malone • 27 implied HN points • 14 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Diplomacy
  1. The West must renew its economy and technology by re-industrializing, securing supply chains, and competing strongly in AI, commercial space, and other critical industries.
  2. Strong border control and immigration limits are presented as necessary expressions of national sovereignty to protect social cohesion and cultural continuity.
  3. The transatlantic alliance should be reinvigorated around shared Western heritage and reciprocity, with Europe taking more responsibility for defense, international institutions reformed, and hard power used when diplomacy fails.

Drill at the drop of a hat

Taipology • 83 implied HN points • 30 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit changed the operational environment around Taiwan and led to regular PLA drills that have become a steady salami‑slicing pressure.
  2. China’s surprise “Justice Mission” drills came extremely close to the island, including inside the 12‑nautical‑mile line, creating a horrible double‑bind for Taiwan’s forces: shoot and risk escalation, or hold fire and set a precedent of tolerated intrusions.
  3. Beijing amplified the pressure with a mocking vlog while Taiwan showed logistical hiccups and international backing looked shaky, especially with U.S. leadership taking a hands‑off tone, raising the risk that any future invasion would aim to exploit surprise and limited diplomatic time.

"Peace summit" without negotiations to end the Ukraine War

Glenn’s Substack • 179 implied HN points • 19 Jun 24
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The recent 'peace summit' didn't include Russia or discuss everyone’s security concerns, which is a big problem.
  2. The summit focused more on getting signatures for a declaration instead of really solving the conflict.
  3. There might be pressure now for a real peace summit that actually tries to end the war instead of just picking a side.

Is Trump Wavering on Iran?

John’s Substack • 14 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Trump's State of the Union can be read as him pulling back from attacking Iran because he only demanded a clear pledge that Iran will never get nuclear weapons.
  2. Iran's foreign minister already publicly said Iran will never develop nuclear weapons, and Trump did not insist Iran give up enrichment, ballistic missiles, or support for proxies, which makes a negotiated outcome more feasible.
  3. Almost every country, US military leaders, and Trump's advisers are urging against a war due to its risks and political costs, while Israel and its powerful US lobby remain the main forces pushing for military action.

Did We Learn Nothing From Jeff Goldblum’s Speech in Jurassic Park?

I Might Be Wrong • 7 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. Toppling Iran could be worth it only if it’s replaced by a genuinely better government; a limited outcome like a weapons deal wouldn’t justify the destruction and death.
  2. The outcome of war is highly unpredictable — removing leaders might bring hopeful change, chaotic collapse, or an even worse, competent authoritarian replacement.
  3. Any postwar government linked to the U.S. or Israel will face a huge legitimacy problem and likely be rejected at home, and history shows foreign‑backed regime changes often fail.

Fullbore Friday

CDR Salamander • 845 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
💾 History Diplomacy
  1. The importance of responsibility and trust in wartime scenarios.
  2. The story of the SMS Dresden and its fate during WWI.
  3. Highlighting the decision-making process of a German Commanding Officer during a crucial moment.

Between Western Hegemony & Eurasian Multipolarity

Glenn’s Substack • 179 implied HN points • 17 Jun 24
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. NATO and Russia have had tensions for 30 years, leading to a potential conflict. It's important to understand this history to see how we got here.
  2. There is a growing idea of a multipolar world, especially in Eurasia, that could lead to more stability. Different countries working together can balance power and prevent wars.
  3. Shifting from a Western-dominated world to a multipolar approach might help create a more peaceful global environment. Looking beyond just one powerful nation can support better international relations.

Is Peace Between Israel and Syria Really Possible?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 737 implied HN points • 10 Jul 25
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. There is a chance for peace between Israel and Syria with new leadership in Syria. This new government seems more open to deals than the previous regime.
  2. If Israel makes peace with Syria, it could lead to better stability in the region and might help end conflicts involving groups like Hamas.
  3. The idea of peace with Syria is not new for Israel, and past history shows that making this peace could still be very difficult.

On America's structural inability to effectively compete with China in Africa

An Africanist Perspective • 1345 implied HN points • 27 Mar 23
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The US faces challenges competing with China in Africa due to ineffective policy tools and institutions.
  2. America's focus on humanitarian aid and public health through USAID limits its ability to compete effectively with China in infrastructure and commercial projects in Africa.
  3. The structural and institutional biases within American foreign policy result in a lack of attention to African priorities, hindering the ability to effectively engage with the continent.

America's Place in the World: What Do We See?

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 75 implied HN points • 13 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The U.S. is losing global dominance as China builds industrial self‑sufficiency and leads in critical technologies, threatening dollar hegemony and key military supply chains.
  2. Long-term neoliberal policies and elite capture have hollowed out U.S. industry and power, and those elites are unlikely to willingly cede control as decline accelerates.
  3. The next decades will be driven by three linked crises—geopolitical rivalry, domestic social fracture, and an escalating climate emergency—with the climate shock set to reshape global stability and responses.

Trump's National Security Strategy and the European Union, or: A sly plan to make life much, much harder for the Eurotards in Brussels

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 138 implied HN points • 12 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. The new US National Security Strategy is intentionally provocative and treats the European Union more as a strategic rival than a close institutional partner, signaling a clear policy shift.
  2. The strategy favors bilateral engagement over Brussels-led cooperation, aiming to build direct partnerships with key countries like Germany to expand American influence in Europe.
  3. It signals willingness to use aggressive or coercive tactics and to exploit European divisions to weaken EU institutions and challenge the idea of a unified "normative West," which has alarmed European leaders.

Wang Yi's concluding address on China's diplomacy in 2025

Pekingnology • 98 implied HN points • 30 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy
  1. China presents itself as a stabilizing major power that seeks to prevent war and mediate conflicts. It emphasizes managing major-country relations on mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and firm defense of core interests.
  2. China is deepening ties with neighbors and the Global South through trade, infrastructure and diplomacy to build a community with a shared future and boost regional stability and development. It is expanding Belt and Road projects, free-trade talks, and people-to-people links like visa waivers.
  3. China is pushing to reshape global governance and lead development by promoting multilateralism, new global initiatives, and institutions to increase the Global South’s voice. It champions openness, trade liberalization, and proposals like a Global Governance Initiative and new cooperation bodies.