The hottest Equities Substack posts right now

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Top Links 540 Gloom over US equities. Soros on investing first and investigating later. Active clubs & the cellular landscape.

Chartbook • 371 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
💰 Finance Equities Investing Market Trends Investment strategy Financial Analysis
  1. There's a lot of concern about the future of US stocks, as some experts like Goldman Sachs are predicting gloominess. Many investors are feeling nervous about what comes next.
  2. Soros believes in investing quickly and doing research afterwards, suggesting a bold approach to investing. This method can be risky but may lead to interesting opportunities.
  3. The discussion includes active clubs and the cellular industry, indicating that there are various sectors to pay attention to. These areas might be key for future growth and innovation.

The 1%

Market Sentiment • 589 implied HN points • 09 Apr 23
💰 Finance Investing Wealth Management Asset allocation Equities Real Estate
  1. Many millionaires invest their money wisely, not just through income.
  2. The top 1% of Americans own more stocks than the other 99%, highlighting the importance of investing in equities for wealth growth.
  3. Affluent retail investors typically have a long-term risk orientation with high equity exposure and minimal panic selling tendencies.

Let me fix those forecasts for you

Klement on Investing • 7 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Forecasting Equities Financial trends
  1. Forecasts for stock market returns are often inaccurate. For example, analysts expected the S&P 500 to rise by about 8% in 2024, but it actually rose by 23%.
  2. Historical data shows a low correlation between predicted and actual stock market returns. Over the last 20 years, the correlation for analysts' forecasts has been very weak.
  3. Using forecast errors, we can adjust predictions for the next year. For 2025, the S&P 500's return could realistically range from a 29% drop to a 47% increase.

European equities won’t provide safety if US bubble bursts

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Equities Economic Trends Risk management
  1. If the US stock market crashes, it can impact European markets too. Investors shouldn't expect safety by moving their money to Europe.
  2. Currently, US stocks are very expensive, which raises concerns about a potential market correction.
  3. A downturn in the US could be more harmful to Europe than past market crashes, like the tech bubble in 2000.
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How to read a stock chart

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 119 implied HN points • 14 Feb 23
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Financial Analysis Market Trends Equities
  1. Stock charts show how a company's stock performs over time. You can see if the price is going up, down, or staying the same.
  2. Important parts of a stock chart are the price, high/low for the day, and market cap. These help you understand how the stock is doing right now and in the past.
  3. You can set different timeframes to see how a stock has performed over days or even a year. This helps you get a better picture of its trends.

What happens if China sneezes?

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 08 Feb 24
💰 Finance Global Markets Commodities Equities
  1. Commodity prices are sensitive to both Chinese and US macro developments, with oil reacting similarly to both.
  2. Global equities are less sensitive to Chinese shocks compared to US shocks, needing a larger Chinese shock to create a similar reaction.
  3. While the impact on global equities from the Chinese economy might be smaller than a US recession, a large enough shock from China could still derail global equity markets.

January 2019 Data Update 1: A reminder that equities are risky, in case you forgot!

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 03 Jan 19
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Equities Risk management Economic Analysis
  1. Investing in stocks comes with risk, and it’s important to remember that not every dip in prices is a chance to buy. Stocks can lose value, and there are reasons why they usually offer higher returns than safer investments.
  2. The equity risk premium, which tells us how much investors are being paid to take on the risk of stocks, has increased recently. This might suggest that stocks are undervalued compared to historical norms.
  3. Looking ahead, market conditions could be challenging with potential slowdowns in economic growth and global crises. Understanding these risks helps investors make more informed decisions.

Market Meltdown

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 17 Sep 08
💰 Finance Markets Equities Investments Economy Financial Services
  1. The stock market dropped significantly this week, with the S&P 500 down nearly 20% for the year, which is troubling but not yet disastrous.
  2. Financial companies have suffered the most from the market decline, while most other sectors are doing okay.
  3. Despite the market's fears and panic, the overall economy is still holding up well, except for the housing sector.

The IPO of the decade? My valuation of Facebook

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 16 Feb 12
💰 Finance Investing Valuation Equities Market Analysis Corporate Finance
  1. Facebook's growth has been huge, with revenues doubling every year for a while. The company seems to have a solid plan to continue growing, but there are questions about how long that can last.
  2. Operating profits for Facebook are impressive, but they might drop as the company tries to grow even more. Still, expectations are high for Facebook's financial performance compared to other companies like Google.
  3. Investing in Facebook comes with risks. While it has a lot of potential, the company is not set up to give shareholders much say in how it operates, which could be a red flag for some investors.

Data Update 2 for 2021: The Price of Risk!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 20 Jan 21
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Risk Assessment Bond Markets Equities
  1. The price of risk is the extra return investors seek to earn when taking on risky investments. It’s shaped by how much people are willing to spend and their feelings about market conditions.
  2. Risk premiums can change based on investors' fears and greed. When fear is high, people usually want higher risk premiums, which can lower the prices of investments.
  3. There are different ways to evaluate market risk, like looking at bond yields or estimating earnings for stocks, and these methods help us understand if investments are overvalued or undervalued.

Data Update 3 for 2020: The Price of Risk!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 11 Feb 20
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Market Analysis Equities Bonds Real Estate
  1. Risk is a necessary part of investing, and avoiding it completely can cost you potential returns. It's important to find a balance between taking on risk and ensuring enough return for that risk.
  2. The price of risk varies between different asset classes like bonds and equities, with markets setting these prices based on demand and supply. For instance, the default spread for bonds and the equity risk premium for stocks can help gauge expected returns.
  3. Real estate also has its own risk premium, which can change over time like stocks and bonds. Understanding this can help you make better decisions about how to allocate your investments.

January 2017 Data Update 2: The Resilience of US Equities!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 13 Jan 17
💰 Finance Investing Equities Market Analysis Economic Trends Risk management
  1. US stocks showed resilience in 2016 despite initial fears of a market bubble due to economic concerns. Investors were surprised by the market's recovery after significant drops early in the year.
  2. The expected return on stocks for 2017 is estimated at around 8.14%, which is higher than the historical average. However, there are concerns about companies paying out more cash than they're earning, which isn't sustainable in the long term.
  3. Interest rates are likely to rise in 2017 due to economic growth and inflation. This could impact stock prices if earnings don't keep pace, but there's also a chance that rising earnings will support the market.

Inflation and Investing: False Alarm or Fair Warning?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 24 May 21
💰 Finance Investing Inflation Bonds Equities Market Trends
  1. Inflation is rising, and many people are debating whether it will be temporary or a more lasting issue. This uncertainty affects how investors think about their money.
  2. Different investments react to inflation in various ways. For example, bonds often struggle with unexpected inflation, while real estate and commodities like gold tend to do better.
  3. Understanding inflation can help you make better investment choices. Knowing how different sectors and asset types might perform can guide your decisions in uncertain economic times.