The hottest Bonds Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Top Links 997 AI in the bond market. How the UK ended coal. Pasolini on Gramsci and Trotsky on Europe.

Chartbook • 672 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Big Tech’s move into AI is creating new risks for the bond market by concentrating data, models, and trading influence in a few platforms that could amplify shocks.
  2. The UK’s phase-out of coal shows how coordinated policy and market shifts can rapidly retire fossil fuel capacity and offers a practical model for energy transition elsewhere.
  3. Engagements like Pasolini on Gramsci and Trotsky on Europe show that cultural and political theory still shape how we understand national identity and continental politics, offering different lenses on power and change.

Making Sense of the Markets Right Now

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 1176 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Japan’s huge debt, rising interest rates, and a weakening yen risk triggering a global unwind of yen-funded carry trades that could force selling of US Treasuries and equities.
  2. Massive government overspending and money-supply expansion are debasing fiat currencies, pushing investors and central banks to buy physical gold as a long-term store of value and weakening the dollar’s dominance.
  3. Silver faces a real physical shortage because paper contracts far exceed available metal and industrial demand is rising, causing backwardation, squeeze risk, and extreme price volatility.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 11 Aug 24
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Market corrections are normal and can be healthy for long-term growth. It's important to own a mix of investments and stay calm during downturns.
  2. After a drop in the stock market, like with the S&P 500, there's often a bounce back, with strong average returns in the months that follow.
  3. Media companies are struggling with changes in viewer habits, which may lead to consolidations in the industry. This means fewer players but potentially stronger companies in the long run.

How to Look Smart On TV And Dumb in History

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 56 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Financial media often mocks and belittles warnings about structural risk because their incentives favor keeping the party going, so being early on a correct call can look like being wrong.
  2. Persistent central-bank interventions, debt monetization, and yield suppression create market distortions that eventually unwind, with bond markets a likely pressure point when they do.
  3. Gold and miners acted like effective insurance against those distortions, outperforming equities and validating skeptics who warned about asset inflation.
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The Economy Enters the D-Zone

The Informationist • 1179 implied HN points • 23 Jul 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Rising interest rates may lead to debt defaults as borrowing costs increase
  2. Tripping covenants signal liquidity problems at companies and can lead to defaults
  3. Higher default rates could indicate an economic downturn and the need for careful portfolio management

Top Links 824 Ukrainian bonds. Talking about currencies. Rebuilding The Kingdom & The Men of 1924.

Chartbook • 414 implied HN points • 09 Aug 25
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Ukrainian bonds are gaining value, rising from 62 to 67 cents on the dollar recently. This shows that investors are hopeful about peace and economic recovery in Ukraine.
  2. Discussing currencies can help people understand how money works and influences the economy. Learning about different currencies is important for making informed financial decisions.
  3. Rebuilding efforts and historical perspectives can shape how a country develops. Looking back at events like those in 1924 can provide insights into current challenges and opportunities.

Are TIPS and I-Bonds Good Investments?

The Informationist • 963 implied HN points • 28 May 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. TIPS are Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities that protect investors from inflation by adjusting principal based on changes in CPI.
  2. I-Bonds are similar to TIPS in protecting from inflation, but have fixed rates and are not tradable in the secondary market.
  3. Both TIPS and I-Bonds are highly dependent on CPI for pricing and may not offer positive real rates of return in the real world.

Greenland Exposes The Greenback

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 35 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Forcing a takeover of Greenland would look like overreach and weakness, not strength; seizing territory signals an empire that’s compensating rather than leading.
  2. Aggressive moves would shatter credibility with allies, neutrals, and investors, making the country seem reckless and pushing people toward safer assets like gold.
  3. Loss of reserve status happens quietly through market reactions, so the real indicator is how bond, currency, and gold markets reallocate capital afterward.

The “Sell America” Trade Isn’t A One-Off

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 26 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries is weakening at the same time U.S. deficits are growing, driven by Japan’s rate normalization, higher European borrowing, and less Chinese dollar recycling. That mix points to a weaker dollar, higher long-term yields, and more reliance on policy support for the Treasury market.
  2. Geopolitical and trade shocks can quickly trigger a "Sell America" trade where stocks, Treasuries, and the dollar all fall together, because foreign holders can and will reprice political risk and divest U.S. assets. Even small divestments by big foreign investors signal that demand for Treasuries is a choice, not an automatic safe-haven.
  3. Because concentration risk in U.S. bonds is rising, investors should diversify into foreign stocks and bonds and consider physical gold for balance-sheet protection. The Fed's recent reserve-management purchases of T-bills show the market may be becoming increasingly dependent on central-bank support rather than organic global demand.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 119 implied HN points • 05 May 24
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Selling stocks in May may not be the best strategy, as historical data shows it only works about a quarter of the time since 2008.
  2. The current stock market is looking healthier, with positive earnings and potential interest rate cuts, which might lead to steady gains this year.
  3. Investors are keeping an eye on dividend stocks and marijuana stocks, as both sectors show potential for growth and steady income.

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY’S TOBACCO HISTORY

Reflections on "Going Down Tobacco Road" and Investing • 530 implied HN points • 18 Jul 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Warren Buffett invested in tobacco businesses like R.J. Reynolds, showing a historical investment pattern.
  2. Buffett sold his R.J. Reynolds stock in 1984, missing out on higher returns, showcasing his investment strategy.
  3. Buffett made a successful investment in RJR Nabisco bonds in 1989, demonstrating his keen awareness of financial risks and rewards.

Are Bond Yields Too High, or Too Low?

The Overshoot • 511 implied HN points • 07 Oct 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Employment growth in the US has been strong, but it's not translating to higher wages.
  2. Despite strong employment numbers, bond yields have risen rather than fallen.
  3. The rise in bond yields might be influenced by factors beyond interest rate expectations, presenting potential opportunities for investors.

3 Fund Portfolio

Market Sentiment • 452 implied HN points • 19 Mar 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Successful investing comes down to diversification, low costs, and discipline.
  2. The 3-fund portfolio includes U.S. stocks, international stocks, and bonds to ensure balance and minimize risks.
  3. International diversification balances home country bias, while bonds provide stability during stock market downturns.

The Definitive Guide to Bonds

Market Sentiment • 432 implied HN points • 02 Apr 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Leverage in bond investments can work well but also lead to significant losses if market conditions change rapidly.
  2. Bond prices are impacted by interest rate movements, where older bonds may lose value with rate hikes.
  3. The choice between individual bonds and bond ETFs depends on factors like diversification needs, fees, and level of investment sophistication.

Hedging Inflation with Real Assets

In My Tribe • 622 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Investing in real assets like real estate, gold, and commodities can help protect against inflation. These assets are expected to appreciate more when inflation rises.
  2. Understanding profitability is key when investing. It combines rental income, appreciation, and interest rates to determine if an investment is worth it.
  3. Inflation-indexed bonds (like i-bonds) can be a good hedge but have limits on how much you can buy. They provide some safety against inflation, even though their performance can vary.

10 Questions with InflationX

Asian Century Stocks • 393 implied HN points • 26 Sep 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. The interview discusses the background and focus of InflationX, a fixed-income investor turning to equities.
  2. Inflation is expected to rise over the next 5-10 years due to various factors.
  3. The rapid rise in interest rates may lead to a crisis, especially with the high levels of debt.

Daily Chartbook #296

Daily Chartbook • 1886 implied HN points • 07 Oct 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Global food prices have steadied at a two-year low.
  2. Global GDP growth in Q3 has been solid, driving earnings growth into positive territory.
  3. Used car prices saw a 1.0% increase in September compared to August.

Daily Chartbook #289

Daily Chartbook • 1676 implied HN points • 28 Sep 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Rising mortgage rates are impacting demand in the housing market
  2. The total value of the US housing market is significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels
  3. Consumer credit card and home equity utilization remains below pre-pandemic levels

Daily Chartbook #305

Daily Chartbook • 1572 implied HN points • 20 Oct 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Homebuyer demand is at its lowest level in nearly a year.
  2. Existing home sales have dropped to their lowest point since October 2010.
  3. The national median existing-home price rose 2.8% in September from a year earlier to $394,300.

Endgame #2

The Dollar Endgame • 319 implied HN points • 28 Sep 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Japan is facing challenges with its currency and bond market, with the USD/JPY crossing critical levels and the market pressuring the Yen amidst debt concerns.
  2. The US bond market is experiencing significant turbulence, with record lows in various instruments and rising yields posing challenges for investors.
  3. China is grappling with an economic slowdown fueled by a declining property market and potential need for widespread bailouts, leading to concerns about the country's economic future.

Daily Chartbook #295

Daily Chartbook • 1572 implied HN points • 06 Oct 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Typical mortgage rates fluctuate around the average rate.
  2. Median monthly mortgage payment has increased by 10.2% YoY.
  3. Homebuyers with a $3,000 budget have lost $40,000 in purchasing power since last year due to rising mortgage rates.

Daily Chartbook #294

Daily Chartbook • 1572 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. MBA Mortgage Purchase Index fell to its lowest since 1995 due to rising mortgage rates
  2. UAW strike caused a significant drop in trucking volumes
  3. Global economic growth cooled as the composite PMI slipped to 50.5 in September

The Zero-Coupon Convertible

Lewis Enterprises • 255 implied HN points • 07 Nov 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Investment returns boil down to coupon, credit, duration, and convexity.
  2. Zero-coupon convertibles combine features of debt and equity, offering companies a hybrid form of financing.
  3. Zero-coupon bonds and zero-coupon convertibles serve different investor needs and preferences.

Daily Chartbook #280

Daily Chartbook • 1545 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. The median asking price for newly listed homes rose 4.3% YoY.
  2. The median monthly mortgage payment hit an all-time high of $2,632.
  3. Initial jobless claims were 220k, continuing claims at 1,688k.

Daily Chartbook #262

Daily Chartbook • 1598 implied HN points • 19 Aug 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. China real estate market poses risks globally, but international policy response is expected
  2. Default rates are rising slowly over the past 12 months
  3. Large-scale M&A deals above $10 billion have increased in the second quarter

Daily Chartbook #290

Daily Chartbook • 1467 implied HN points • 29 Sep 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Pending home sales fell 7.1% in August, hitting Covid lows.
  2. Median monthly new homebuyer payments are at a record $2,666.
  3. Average interest rate on a 30 year mortgage is now 7.83%, the highest since October 2000.

Data Update 3 for 2023: Interest Rates and Bond Returns

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 31 Jan 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. In 2022, both stocks and treasury bonds saw very bad returns, with treasury bonds performing the worst in historical terms. Investors lost significant money as interest rates rose sharply, which was unexpected for a market often seen as safe.
  2. Interest rates increased due to rising inflation and not just the actions of the Federal Reserve. As inflation went up, so did investor expectations, which led to higher rates across the board.
  3. Corporate bonds were also hit hard, especially lower-rated ones, leading to increased costs for companies. As a result, many companies may struggle to pay back debt, especially if the economy weakens.

The Big Bond Week

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 137 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. The FOMC meeting and the Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement are key events affecting policy and market reactions.
  2. Investors are closely watching for details on rate cuts, balance sheet reduction, and labor conditions.
  3. The upcoming employment report could impact policy decisions, especially in relation to labor demand and supply.

Longer, Higher For Longer

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Interest rates are the core price that coordinates savings and investment, and heavy central-bank intervention has turned them into an administered price that can obscure real market signals.
  2. After a forty-year decline, long-term rates may be shifting higher because of large government debt, weaker anti-inflation norms, and adverse demographics — implying bonds could be "longer, higher for longer."
  3. If long rates stay higher, long-term bonds and real stock returns will likely suffer while commodities (especially gold) may outperform; keeping a very low fixed-rate mortgage and favoring companies with easy access to commodities could make sense.

The Damocles Sword of Asset Allocation

Lewis Enterprises • 235 implied HN points • 11 Oct 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. The assumption of negative correlation between stocks and bonds is being challenged in asset management.
  2. Traditional portfolio strategies like 60/40 have faced challenges due to changing asset behavior.
  3. Investors may need to reconsider fixed asset allocations based on historical correlations to adapt to market changes.

Top Links 557 Inflation worries and the US bond market. Russian oil mega merger. Van Gogh & the art of dying.

Chartbook • 386 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Inflation concerns are becoming a big issue again for the US bond market. This can affect interest rates and borrowing costs for everyone.
  2. There is a significant merger happening in the Russian oil sector. This might change the landscape of oil supply and prices globally.
  3. Van Gogh's life and art are being explored in a new way, touching on themes of mortality and creativity. His work continues to inspire deep reflections on life and death.

Daily Chartbook #168

Daily Chartbook • 1572 implied HN points • 25 Mar 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. The Biden administration planned to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserves at lower oil prices but hasn't yet.
  2. For-hire truck tonnage has been increasing consistently for the last three months.
  3. There is concern over a foreign central bank maxing out the FIMA repo, not covered by FX swap lines.

Top Links 552 Nasty bonds on underwater office buildings. Indian top earners in Germany. Avian flu & U.S. military food insecurity.

Chartbook • 286 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. There are problematic bonds tied to office buildings that may not hold value. This means investors could face significant losses.
  2. There are many Indian professionals earning high salaries in Germany. This indicates a strong presence of Indian talent in the German job market.
  3. Avian flu is affecting food security for U.S. military personnel. This raises concerns about the availability of safe food for those in service.

Payroll Preview & Return of the Policy Put

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time' • 137 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. The Federal Reserve may not raise rates if certain conditions are met, such as softening labor market data or 10-year Treasury rates staying near 5%.
  2. A sustainable rally in the Treasury and equity markets requires a rally in 2-year Treasuries to stabilize the banking system.
  3. To reduce damage to bank balance sheets and profitability, yield curve normalization with a starting point at 4.75% could be beneficial.

What is a bond?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 219 implied HN points • 23 Mar 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. A bond is like an IOU. When you buy one, you're lending money to a government or company for interest over time.
  2. There are different types of bonds, like government bonds for public projects and corporate bonds for business funding.
  3. Bonds have important terms like issuer, coupon rate, and maturity date, which help determine how they work and what investors earn.

Why are stocks not dropping?

Philoinvestor • 98 implied HN points • 12 Apr 23
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Comparing bond yields to stock earnings yields may not be the same due to real vs. fixed assets
  2. Real assets like businesses can adjust to inflation, unlike fixed assets like bonds
  3. Investors feel the need to invest in assets that can beat inflation and create value

THE MACRO-FINANCE SITCH: The Streams (of Falling Short-Term & Rising Long-Term U.S. Treasury Rates) Cross

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 115 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Bonds
  1. Short-term Treasury rates are falling while long-term rates are rising, showing a change in investor expectations about future interest rates. This shift hints at more uncertainty in the market.
  2. The current economic situation could lead to tumultuous changes similar to past events in the UK, with concerns about the U.S. government's approach to debt and fiscal policy.
  3. Investors seem to be valuing flexibility over fixed returns, suggesting they want to avoid risks associated with long-term bonds in a fluctuating economy.