The hottest Volatility Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Crypto Topics

Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 239 implied HN points • 23 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Volatility
  1. Current-coupon agency MBS yields surged about 63 basis points since late February to roughly 5.44%, marking the largest three-week increase since October 2024 and the highest level since August 2025. This repricing followed global bond-market adjustments tied to the Iran War.
  2. MBS spreads to Treasuries widened significantly, with CCMBS/10-year near 105 bp and CCMBS/7-year near 124 bp, reaching their widest levels since December 2025. The spread widening largely reflects a sharp rise in actual and implied interest-rate volatility (MOVE Index).
  3. Treasury yields moved most in the belly of the curve, and the yield curve is now monotonically increasing from 6 months out to 20 years for the first time since May 2022. This indicates a broad shift toward higher medium- and longer-term yields.

Bitcoin ETF Options Could Send Bitcoin Much Higher

The Pomp Letter • 439 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
đź”® Crypto Volatility
  1. Bitcoin ETF options are expected to attract more investors, which may help stabilize its price and reduce volatility over time.
  2. Unlike traditional assets, Bitcoin tends to become more volatile when its price rises, which encourages more buying during bull markets.
  3. The new ETF options will provide a familiar way for institutional investors to access Bitcoin, potentially leading to a significant increase in prices, similar to past market events like GameStop.

This Crash Is Bitcoin's Biggest Test Yet

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 36 implied HN points • 07 Feb 26
đź”® Crypto Volatility
  1. Bitcoin just had a dramatic ~50% drawdown that feels like a real moment of truth, forcing both believers and skeptics to rethink what the asset actually is, not just its price,
  2. Mainstream adoption in the U.S. — ETFs, banks, retirement accounts, political support — means there may be fewer new buyers left domestically, which is the core bearish case about demand peaking,
  3. From here the paths split: it could slowly fade into a niche asset, enter a long sideways crypto winter, or rebound to new highs; either way, volatility remains Bitcoin’s defining feature.

Investing Update: Bearish Data Emerges

Spilled Coffee • 28 implied HN points • 14 Feb 26
đź’° Finance Volatility
  1. Major U.S. indexes pulled back this week, led by technology, signaling a modest consolidation as investors reassess valuations and seasonal weakness approaches.
  2. On the surface breadth is strong—every S&P sector is above its 200‑day moving average and equal‑weight stocks are outperforming—but the leadership is defensive (materials, energy, utilities) while tech and communications lag, which raises questions about the rally's durability.
  3. There’s hidden stress under the indexes: an unusually large number of individual S&P stocks plunged 7%+ in a short period, a pattern that historically precedes much larger market drawdowns and increases the risk of a bigger selloff.

CHEAP JAPANESE STOCK INDEX FORWARDS

The MacroTourist • 412 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Volatility
  1. The author has a new favorite Japanese stock index position betting on Nikkei outperforming S&P 500 and getting long volatility.
  2. The focus of the article is not on fundamental reasons for the position, but on a unique trading edge.
  3. The content of the post is available only to paid subscribers.
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How to identify distress in the financial system?

Global Markets Investor • 39 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Volatility
  1. It's crucial to understand the credit rating scale of bonds to identify distress in the financial system, as issues in the bond market can quickly impact other financial sectors.
  2. Monitoring indicators like bond spreads, such as the ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread, can help determine the financial system's strength. Lower spreads usually indicate a healthier market.
  3. Using indices like the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index offers a comprehensive view of financial market stress, incorporating various metrics like interest rates, yield spreads, and stock and bond volatility.

The media is lying about Stock Market Volatility [Finance Fridays]

Technology Made Simple • 79 implied HN points • 12 Aug 22
đź’° Finance Volatility
  1. Stock market volatility is not solely caused by 'Robinhood investors'; experts' claims are not well-supported by research and basic math
  2. While individual firms have seen increased volatility, overall market volatility has remained relatively consistent, highlighting the importance of looking beyond surface-level narratives
  3. Opportunity cost plays a significant role in firm-level volatility, with investors impacting individual stocks based on trends, emotions, and investment decisions, even if market-wide volatility does not reflect this

The Road Narrows

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 27 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
đź”® Crypto Volatility
  1. Crypto might be an early warning sign for future market troubles. If things go bad in crypto, it could affect the whole economy too.
  2. The introduction of powerful quantum computers raises questions about the security of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. If hackers can crack the code, it could lead to serious issues.
  3. Many American consumers and investors are feeling financially strained right now. This situation could lead to bigger problems in the stock market.

Volatility "Can Be Beneficial": Trading The Election Results

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 14 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
đź’° Finance Volatility
  1. Volatility in the market can actually provide good trading opportunities. When things are uncertain, smart traders can find chances to profit.
  2. Listening to expert traders can be really helpful, especially those who are honest about their successes and failures. It helps build trust and understand the market better.
  3. Election results often change market dynamics, creating unique situations for investors. Keeping track of these changes can be essential for making informed decisions.

Exploring Crypto Market Dynamics through Options Data

Coin Metrics' State of the Network • 0 implied HN points • 20 May 25
đź”® Crypto Volatility
  1. Options are becoming a key part of trading in crypto. They help traders manage risks, express their views on price changes, and understand market sentiment better.
  2. The use of Bitcoin options has surged significantly, showing that more people are getting involved in options trading. Most of the activity happens on the Deribit exchange, which is quite popular among traders.
  3. Market positioning through options shows a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, while Ethereum has a more mixed sentiment. This means traders are more confident about Bitcoin's future price than they are about Ethereum's direction.

Making Sense of Bitcoin’s Changing Market Rythm

Coin Metrics' State of the Network • 0 implied HN points • 11 Nov 25
đź”® Crypto Volatility
  1. Bitcoin supply is changing slowly, with long-term holders moving coins gradually. This shows a steady shift in who owns Bitcoin now.
  2. Bitcoin ETFs and Digital Asset Treasuries have taken up a large chunk of new supply, providing a consistent demand. This means more stability in who holds Bitcoin.
  3. Bitcoin's price movements are less volatile now, resembling steady tech stocks. This suggests that the market is maturing and becoming less wild than before.

Credit where It's Due: An Interview with Boaz Weinstein

The Octavian Report • 0 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Volatility
  1. Volatility is at historic lows because lots of investors are selling volatility, which suppresses price swings now but makes the market fragile and likely to see a much bigger spike if a breakout happens.
  2. Credit and equity markets can diverge for months, so companies whose stocks have collapsed sometimes still have debt trading high, creating both hidden risk and capital‑structure arbitrage opportunities.
  3. Discounted closed‑end funds and niche strategies like capital‑structure and volatility arbitrage look especially attractive right now, since active managers can earn yield and profit from mispricings that most institutions overlook.

The most exciting flat week ever?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 19 Sep 08
đź’° Finance Volatility
  1. The S&P 500 had a very eventful week, starting at 1250 and ending at 1255. There were big ups and downs throughout the week, showing market volatility.
  2. The financial landscape changed significantly, with many investment banks struggling and the government playing a larger role. This shift indicates a major transformation in the market.
  3. Next week is expected to be volatile, with uncertainty about whether the market will go up or down. It's a time to brace for potential wild fluctuations.

Coin Metrics’ State of the Network: Issue 209

Coin Metrics' State of the Network • 0 implied HN points • 31 May 23
đź”® Crypto Volatility
  1. The digital asset market has evolved significantly since Bitcoin's inception, with emerging sectors like blockchain infrastructure, on-chain derivatives, DeFi, and NFTs.
  2. Sector correlations, like BTC and ETH, can provide insights into the relationships among different sectors within the digital asset market.
  3. Market volatility varies across sectors, with assets in the Decentralized Finance sector experiencing the highest average volatility in 2023.