Joshua Gans' Newsletter

Joshua Gans' Newsletter focuses on analyzing impacts and responses to COVID-19 across various fields including economics, education, health protocols, and technology. It explores pandemic management strategies, vaccine distribution, data management in health crises, and the adaptation of businesses and societal structures amidst the pandemic, emphasizing on innovation and the need for swift adaptation.

Pandemic Management Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Education and COVID-19 Health Protocols and Screening Vaccine Development and Distribution Data Management in Health Crises Technological Adaptations to Pandemics Business Adaptation and Strategy Public Health Communication Societal Changes due to COVID-19

The hottest Substack posts of Joshua Gans' Newsletter

And their main takeaways

BA.2: Your 2022 Variant De Jour

0 implied HN points • 29 Jan 22

A new Omicron variant, BA.2, has emerged and appears to be 1.5 times as transmissible as the original BA.1 variant, leading to concerns about rapid spread.
Studies suggest that BA.2 is not more lethal than Omicron and current vaccines are effective in preventing serious illness.
There are concerns about potential reinfections with Omicron, as evidence shows higher reinfection rates and possible waning immunity within just 10 weeks.

Rationing rapid tests

0 implied HN points • 03 Jan 22

🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Rapid tests Isolation

Rapid tests are important for managing the risk of infecting others, especially in situations where isolation decisions need to be made.
Concentrating repeated tests in one person can be a strategy for rationing tests, especially in households where everyone is likely to be infected if one person tests positive.
Consider who in your household comes into contact with vulnerable individuals or is the most likely to bring COVID into the house when deciding on whom to test.

The Rapid Test Epiphany

0 implied HN points • 21 Dec 21

🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health COVID-19 Pandemic Management Rapid tests

Public health officials are now embracing the use of rapid tests for Covid-19, marking a significant shift in attitude after over 20 months of resistance.
Rapid testing offers individuals the ability to know their Covid status and manage their risk when meeting in groups or with vulnerable individuals.
Rapid testing, while helpful, may not be enough to fully prevent the spread of the Omicron variant and should be paired with other measures like social distancing and masking.

The worst will come in 2021-22

0 implied HN points • 15 Dec 21

🏥 Health & Wellness Epidemiology Prevention Vaccination Healthcare system Immunity

The forecasted surge in Covid-19 cases for early 2022, particularly due to factors like reduced mitigation efforts, insufficient vaccination rates, and new variants, appears to be unfolding with the Omicron variant spreading rapidly.
Preparation for the upcoming outbreaks includes obtaining N95 masks and rapid tests, having a plan to care for vulnerable individuals cautiously, and prioritizing booster shots for older individuals.
Despite the likelihood of increased Covid-19 cases in the near future, the message emphasizes the importance of patience over panic, with outbreaks expected to be intense but relatively short-lived.

Nu or COVID-21?

0 implied HN points • 26 Nov 21

🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccines Epidemiology

The concern is about a new strain, B.1.1.529, and its impact compared to existing variants of COVID-19 - the key question being whether it is new enough to cause significant issues.
The worrying factor includes the high mutation rate in the spike protein of B.1.1.529, the uncertainty about its classification as a new variant or a new disease, and the potential origin from animal populations.
The positive aspects involve B.1.1.529 being detectable by existing tests, limited data showing it spreading in a population with a low vaccination rate, and the opportunity for quicker monitoring of cases due to specific patterns in diagnostic tests.

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How bad can it all be?

0 implied HN points • 15 Nov 21

The book reviewed is "What's the Worst that Could Happen? Existential Risk and Extreme Politics" by Andrew Leigh, which is a pessimistic exploration of various catastrophic risks facing humanity.
Andrew Leigh emphasizes the importance of democracy and adopting a more stoic approach as potential solutions to address existential risks, suggesting that these approaches may offer some form of protection.
The book encourages readers and those in power to think critically about existential risks, even if they do not fully agree with the author's conclusions, as the primary goal is to spark contemplation and discussion on these important issues.

NSW vs Ontario: Another Month

0 implied HN points • 16 Oct 21

🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccination Lockdowns Immunity

NSW and Ontario were used as comparison cases for the Delta variant, with NSW passing 80% of its 16+ population fully vaccinated and starting to ease restrictions.
In Ontario, despite concerns of an outbreak when kids returned to school, the outbreak was relatively stunted compared to NSW, showcasing the value of vaccination over lockdowns.
Winter will be the true test of resilience for vaccinations in Ontario, as well as dealing with waning immunity that will hit Ontario sooner than NSW.

A Big Unknown: Long Covid-19

0 implied HN points • 06 Sep 21

🏥 Health & Wellness Long Covid Vaccines Scientific research Pandemic impact

Long Covid-19 is a significant concern as it involves persistent symptoms even after recovery from the initial infection.
Vaccines may offer some protection against Long Covid-19, but more research is needed to fully understand their impact on this condition.
There is a current debate between Long Covid-19 patients and researchers on the seriousness and study approach towards this condition, emphasizing the need for more objective research and timely understanding.

Supply of Rapid Tests

0 implied HN points • 21 Aug 21

🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health COVID-19 Vaccination Testing Supply Chain

Abbott destroyed millions of rapid test products due to a mistaken prediction of decreased demand, leading to supply shortages when demand surged again.
Public health recommendations, like CDC's guidance on testing, heavily influence the demand for rapid tests.
Vaccine mandates and the requirement for negative tests are increasing the demand for testing, highlighting the importance for governments to act promptly to ensure sufficient supply.

A Tale of Two Regions

0 implied HN points • 15 Aug 21

🌍 World Politics COVID-19 Lockdowns Vaccinations

NSW and Ontario have similar Covid-19 infection rates, but experience different outcomes - NSW has higher infection rates and more hospitalizations despite being in lockdown.
Vaccination rates play a crucial role in controlling Covid-19 - higher vaccination rates in Ontario contribute to its relative openness compared to NSW.
Weather differences between regions may impact Covid-19 spread - with Ontario in summer and NSW in winter, it's suggested that infections may be weather-related.

Resetting expectations

0 implied HN points • 13 Aug 21

🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health Pandemic Management Vaccination Immunity Testing

The previous plan of waiting for a vaccine and declaring victory is no longer feasible with the emergence of the Delta variant.
In dealing with the Delta variant, it is important to flatten the curve to prevent overwhelming hospitals and buy time to vaccinate more people.
Policies to address the Delta variant should include restrictions on non-essential gatherings, rapid testing in schools, encouraging mask-wearing, and providing support for those who cannot be vaccinated.

It's worse (maybe)

0 implied HN points • 30 Jul 21

🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccination Pandemic Management Health data

The Delta variant of Covid-19 is concerning as it shows high viral load in both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, longer infectious period, and a high R0 value.
Superspreading events indoors may remain risky, leading to continued need to avoid crowded indoor spaces. Entry requirements might shift to requiring negative tests along with vaccinations.
There is a greater importance placed on rapid antigen testing in various settings due to the spread of the virus by vaccinated individuals, emphasizing the need for more accessible and widespread testing.

Political tensions and the endgame

0 implied HN points • 24 Jul 21

🏥 Health Politics Pandemic response Vaccination Political Tensions Policy Implications

During a pandemic, there is a trade-off between prioritizing the economy and prioritizing health, and this choice changes with developments like vaccinations.
Countries like South Korea and Australia managed to balance the economy and health without relying solely on lockdowns by using testing and tracing methods.
Vaccines play a critical role in improving production possibilities and reducing the impact of a pandemic, but they also complicate political choices by potentially shifting priorities and increasing tensions.

Vaccine Passports are unlikely to counter vaccine hesitancy

0 implied HN points • 16 Jul 21

🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccine Hesitancy Public Health Pandemic Management Risk Communication

Vaccine passports may not effectively address vaccine hesitancy due to their potential to act more as a punishment than a motivator.
Implementing vaccine passports could lead to 'vaccine theatre,' where the requirement of proof of vaccination at events may not necessarily protect or benefit individuals.
The use of vaccine passports may paradoxically lower the demand for vaccination by reducing the prevalence of the virus, making it a temporary solution rather than a long-term strategy.

Australia's Art of the Deal

0 implied HN points • 11 Jul 21

🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccines Pandemic Public Health Economics Government

Negotiation strategies in deals should consider future promises and relationships, not just focus on the present moment.
Australia's vaccine strategy, specifically with Pfizer, has put the country behind compared to some peers, highlighting the importance of making thoughtful deals.
The global distribution of vaccines involves a complex 'grand deal' where richer countries pay for upfront costs, showcasing the economic considerations in allocating resources during a pandemic.

Endgame experiments

0 implied HN points • 10 Jul 21

🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemic Management Vaccination rates Global impact

The world is conducting experiments to understand how to manage the pandemic going forward, with examples like the UK, US, Ontario, NSW, and Japan.
Some experiments, like those in NSW and Japan, may not be as informative due to factors like low vaccination rates and existing management tools.
The US experiment is particularly valuable, as it can provide insights on how outbreaks in one state with low vaccination rates can affect other states with higher vaccination levels.

The Triumph of Economists

0 implied HN points • 16 Jun 21

💼 Business Economics Government Policy Employment Finance

Macroeconomists in government played a crucial role in avoiding economic and societal collapse during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The successful approach taken by economists involved keeping payments flowing, providing subsidies, and implementing programs to support workers and businesses.
Despite challenges such as potential fraud and unbalanced interventions, the economists' actions in government are seen as a significant triumph for the system.

B.1.617.2

0 implied HN points • 01 Jun 21

🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccination Transmission

Vaccination rates in Canada are high and cases are decreasing, but the B.1.617.2 variant is a cause for concern due to its increased transmissibility.
New variants of COVID-19 may have advantages over older variants based on environmental conditions and spread through superspreading events.
The uncertainty surrounding the B.1.617.2 variant and its potential for causing outbreaks emphasizes the need for caution and monitoring before widespread reopening.

Australia's upcoming storm

0 implied HN points • 26 May 21

🏥 Health Politics COVID-19 Response Public Health Government Strategy Vaccination policy Epidemiology

Australia's strict quarantine and closed borders may not be sustainable in the long run due to vaccine hesitancy and slow vaccination rates.
Historical examples show that successfully keeping a respiratory virus out of Australia is extremely challenging.
The alternative to Australia's current strategy is to give up on Covid-Zero and focus on containing outbreaks through testing, tracing, and vaccination while living with the virus.

What Covid can teach us about entrepreneurship?

0 implied HN points • 25 May 21

💼 Business Entrepreneurship Economics Financing Discrimination Research

Covid-19 led to shifts in entrepreneurial opportunities, with some ventures thriving (like online businesses) while others struggled (like physical stores).
The pandemic allowed for some individuals to reevaluate their career paths and possibly pursue entrepreneurial endeavors, especially due to the pause it enforced and the time it provided for reflection.
Research indicates that discrimination in lending markets may have made it difficult for certain neighborhoods, particularly those with higher proportions of black residents, to secure loans for new business ventures.

Covid-19 Information Confusion

0 implied HN points • 21 May 21

🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Data

The data on hospitalizations of children with Covid-19 may be misleading - a significant portion of children hospitalized weren't there primarily due to Covid-19.
Vaccinated individuals can still get Covid-19, but the context matters - most will not get severely ill or be highly infectious.
Testing post-vaccination should focus more on viral load to determine infectiousness accurately, rather than simply detecting viral presence - antigen tests are suggested for better understanding.

The CDC's Big Surprise!

0 implied HN points • 15 May 21

🏥 Health & Wellness CDC Vaccines Pandemic Management Public Health Pandemic impact

The CDC's decision to lift all restrictions for the vaccinated was surprising and hard to understand, leading to doubts and confusion about their motives and future decisions.
Understanding the CDC's decision-making process is crucial for individuals and businesses to navigate through the changing guidelines effectively.
The lack of a clear plan and sudden shift in policy regarding restrictions raised concerns, especially in areas with high COVID-19 cases, indicating the need for a more consistent and strategic approach.

Did exposure apps work?

0 implied HN points • 14 May 21

🔬 Science Public Health Technology Research Pandemic Management Data Analysis

Exposure notification apps have potential but were not very effective during the crisis due to lack of take-up and false positives.
A study on the NHS app showed a 6% secondary attack rate for app-notified individuals who subsequently tested positive, similar to manually traced close contacts.
The study highlighted the need for further improvements in exposure notification apps, such as tailoring notifications, specifying locations, and adjusting for the type of contacts for better efficiency.

Review of Michael Lewis's Premonition

0 implied HN points • 09 May 21

🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemics Public Health Policy Making Social Distancing

Social distancing as a pandemic control measure has only been accepted for about 15 years by epidemiologists and public health experts.
Understanding first-order effects is crucial in formulating policies and responses, as they present fundamental insights that apply universally.
The resistance to social distancing as a policy option before 2006 highlights the importance of prioritizing logical reasoning over data-driven decision making in certain cases.

Michigan's Big Vaccine Game

0 implied HN points • 30 Apr 21

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy COVID-19 Government Incentives Vaccination

Michigan's re-opening plan tying restrictions to vaccine thresholds is a sensible approach that shifts vaccine hesitancy from individual to societal responsibility.
Creating a team effort by rewarding everyone involved when individual milestones are met can be an effective motivator, as seen in the comparison to toilet training children.
The Michigan plan of gradually lifting restrictions at specific vaccination thresholds with built-in measures to prevent gaming could serve as a successful template for other regions.

Credentials versus passports

0 implied HN points • 28 Apr 21

🏥 Health & Wellness Risk Assessment Public Health Vaccine distribution

The distinction between a 'passport' and a 'credential' is important in managing individual risk and allowing economies to function with minimal restrictions.
Denmark's digital app for showing negative test results, vaccinations, and previous infections can serve as a useful information substrate allowing markets to operate more effectively.
There is value in using verified information as credentials rather than passports, as it provides organizations the flexibility to manage their own Covid-19 risks and policies.

Where are we now?

0 implied HN points • 24 Apr 21

🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Pandemic Management Vaccines

Covid-19 is likely becoming endemic, meaning it will continue circulating and need ongoing efforts to manage
Vaccine hesitancy and new variants may lead to large outbreaks in the near future, posing challenges worldwide
Variants of the virus are evolving to bypass current measures, indicating the need for serious attention and action

The coming vaccine wall in Ontario

0 implied HN points • 19 Apr 21

🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccination Public Health Immunity Prevention

Increasing vaccine supply is crucial to maintain vaccination rates and prevent the pandemic from resurging when needed.
Extending the length between vaccine doses beyond 16 weeks presents uncertainties, and experts are still unsure of the outcomes.
Monitoring the effectiveness of first doses over time and preparing for potential booster shots post-second dose are crucial for informed decision-making before July.

What are the barriers to sensible public health data?

0 implied HN points • 14 Apr 21

🏥 Health Politics Public Health Data Management Health Systems Decision-making

Having comprehensive public health data is crucial for running an effective health system and monitoring trends.
Political leaders need to prioritize and commit to improving public health data systems for better outcomes.
Implementing a balanced growth strategy instead of a 'big bang' approach can lead to more sustainable progress in developing national public health data systems.

Let's check in on Slovakia

0 implied HN points • 13 Apr 21

🌍 World Politics COVID-19 Testing Isolation Government

Slovakia conducted mass testing twice on its population in a short period and implemented continuous weekly testing to bring down COVID-19 cases. They made testing mandatory for certain activities and made isolation voluntary for family members with a positive case.
Slovakia's approach relied heavily on regular testing and isolation of cases and household members, showing significant success in managing outbreaks and decreasing case numbers.
The success of Slovakia's testing strategy was facilitated by its small size, efficient decision-making process, and strong community adherence to regulations. A small group of epidemiologists made decisions quickly, and the country swiftly mobilized resources for mass testing.

What does vaccination mean for rapid screening?

0 implied HN points • 12 Apr 21

🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccination Immunity Monitoring Screening Epidemiology

As vaccination rates increase, the need for rapid screening to prevent outbreaks remains crucial because both vaccines and screening can help control the spread of Covid-19.
The effectiveness of rapid screening in reducing the risk of outbreaks significantly increases as the percentage of vaccinated individuals rises, highlighting the importance of combining vaccination with screening.
There is a potential issue of waning immunity post-vaccination, especially among older populations, which could lead to the re-emergence of Covid-19. This emphasizes the need for a surveillance plan to monitor immunity levels in the vaccinated population and address any possible resurgence.

What to make of AstraZeneca?

0 implied HN points • 09 Apr 21

🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccination COVID-19 Risk Assessment Public Health Vaccine Hesitancy

AstraZeneca has been linked to rare blood clot issues, particularly in younger individuals, presenting a challenge in vaccine distribution and risk assessment.
The distribution of AstraZeneca vaccine is crucial due to its wide availability, but balancing the risk of blood clots against the benefits of vaccination is a complex task.
Messaging around AstraZeneca vaccination plays a significant role in managing vaccine hesitancy and public perception, highlighting the need for a balanced approach and continual adjustment based on new information.

My mistakes

0 implied HN points • 05 Apr 21

🏥 Health & Wellness Learning Reflection Mistakes Decision-making

It's important to reflect on our mistakes and learn from them, especially in challenging situations like a pandemic.
Relying solely on scientific experts for predictions and policies can sometimes lead to incomplete assessments, highlighting the importance of questioning and exposing expert's risk calculations.
Acknowledging and learning from past mistakes is key to improving and increasing accuracy in decision-making and predictions.

A rapid screening Regime is just as sensitive as PCR testing

0 implied HN points • 26 Mar 21

🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Testing Screening

A new study shows that rapid antigen tests can be just as effective as PCR tests at identifying infected individuals if used at least twice a week.
PCR tests have higher sensitivity than rapid antigen tests, but with frequent testing, the differences become insignificant.
Frequent rapid antigen screenings (twice a week) can be more effective and cost-efficient compared to weekly PCR tests.

Is LTC screening worth it?

0 implied HN points • 24 Mar 21

🏥 Health Politics Public Health Testing

A report questions the worth of routine asymptomatic COVID-19 testing in LTC facilities in Ontario due to low positivity rates and perceived costs and burdens.
The report overlooks the potential benefits of preventing outbreaks through testing, especially considering the high-risk nature of LTC facilities.
Suggestions in the report about transitioning to rapid antigen testing are met with skepticism regarding the claimed higher costs and operational challenges.

Should you wait for the 'good' vaccine?

0 implied HN points • 03 Mar 21

🏥 Health Politics Vaccines Public Health Government Decision-making Messaging

The real choice between vaccines is to take the one available now and get a booster of the 'good' vaccine later.
Governments should inform people about their vaccine choices and guarantee availability of booster shots in the future.
Encouraging a portfolio approach to vaccine selection is more effective than promoting one vaccine over another.

Reading and other recommendations

0 implied HN points • 26 Feb 21

🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemic response

Austria conducts regular self-testing in schools by children which has shown initial low positivity rates. This innovative approach is worth keeping an eye on.
Different countries have varied success rates in dealing with the pandemic, leading to intriguing yet uncertain explanations.
Apart from pandemic-related news, the writer discusses digital economics topics, like critiquing Australia's news media bargaining code and Amazon's new receipts, and recommends watching the impactful TV series, 'It's a Sin'.

Dealing with the next pandemic

0 implied HN points • 19 Feb 21

🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemics Vaccination Surveillance Prevention Disease Control

Understanding the connection between bats and viruses is crucial for preventing future pandemics.
Focusing on early identification of human-to-human transmission is key to mitigating the health and economic impacts of pandemics.
Developing a global surveillance system to monitor antibodies to various viruses can provide real-time information to detect and respond to outbreaks.

Making at-home screens a thing

0 implied HN points • 17 Feb 21

🏥 Health & Wellness Health Testing Trust Issues Information Sharing Public Policy Preventive measures

At-home screening for Covid-19 can be efficient and effective, according to evidence from studies.
Trust issues regarding reporting test results and ensuring people follow safety measures can be addressed through penalties or verification processes.
Regular at-home screening, even if not perfect, can help minimize the risk of transmission and improve our ability to measure and manage risks during the pandemic.