Joshua Gans' Newsletter

Joshua Gans' Newsletter focuses on analyzing impacts and responses to COVID-19 across various fields including economics, education, health protocols, and technology. It explores pandemic management strategies, vaccine distribution, data management in health crises, and the adaptation of businesses and societal structures amidst the pandemic, emphasizing on innovation and the need for swift adaptation.

Pandemic Management Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Education and COVID-19 Health Protocols and Screening Vaccine Development and Distribution Data Management in Health Crises Technological Adaptations to Pandemics Business Adaptation and Strategy Public Health Communication Societal Changes due to COVID-19

The hottest Substack posts of Joshua Gans' Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Validation of the value of rapid tests

0 implied HN points • 09 Oct 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Covid-19 testing Infectiousness Rapid tests
  1. Rapid tests are seen as valuable for finding and isolating infectious people, possibly even more so than PCR tests.
  2. A study found that antigen-based testing had similar sensitivity to PCR tests when it comes to detecting infectious individuals, with slightly less false positives.
  3. At higher viral loads, rapid antigen tests showed good agreement with PCR tests in detecting positive cases, indicating their potential effectiveness in identifying infectious individuals.

Vaccine doses ... again

0 implied HN points • 04 Jan 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccines COVID-19 Public Health Epidemiology Immunity
  1. There is a debate about the effectiveness of administering two vaccine doses versus one, with some evidence showing that a single dose could be adequate in certain situations.
  2. The timing of vaccine doses is crucial, with considerations on how to maximize the number of people vaccinated and the potential risks of delaying the second dose.
  3. Mathematical calculations play a role in determining the efficacy of first doses first strategy, but there are complexities involved, including capacity, prevalence of the virus, and the role of vaccines in reducing spread.

Covid-19 and Leisure at Scale

0 implied HN points • 02 Sep 20
💼 Business Economics Workforce Consumption Technology Leisure
  1. Covid-19 has made workers more expensive for businesses, causing job losses, especially for poorer individuals.
  2. Covid-19 has made consumers more expensive for businesses, leading to changes in spending patterns and a shift towards more scalable leisure activities.
  3. The pandemic has disrupted the consumption of leisure, impacting both expensive and affordable leisure options, and potentially leading to long-term changes in leisure consumption habits.

Why the best isn't best

0 implied HN points • 31 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Testing Infectiousness Treatment
  1. The precision of a test doesn't always make it the best choice, especially in cases like testing for infectious diseases.
  2. Having the best test can sometimes be a disadvantage, like with PCR tests that can be too sensitive, leading to unnecessary costs and false positives.
  3. Lowering the sensitivity threshold of tests, like PCR, can be more beneficial in identifying active infections and informing isolation decisions.

Test Week: Let's talk about Sewage

0 implied HN points • 21 Aug 20
🔬 Science Research Monitoring Public Health Infectious Diseases
  1. Testing sewage for the novel coronavirus can help in early detection of outbreaks before they spread widely.
  2. Analyzing sewage can provide valuable information about the presence of infectious diseases in a population, and monitoring waste patterns could lead to new public health insights.
  3. Challenges in using sewage testing for surveillance include factors like rainwater affecting the virus presence, variations in viral material survival, and the need for careful data interpretation.
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What if it’s worse?

0 implied HN points • 12 Apr 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Immunity Testing Vaccine Pandemic
  1. Immunity from COVID-19 is a critical assumption in policy discussions, but what if this assumption is wrong? If immunity is not guaranteed, the virus may never go away.
  2. Investing in extensive testing, especially HAVE tests, can still be valuable even if immunity or a vaccine is not a solution. Testing can help contain the spread of the virus and eventually eradicate it.
  3. The possibility of not achieving permanent immunity emphasizes the need for testing as a hedge against uncertainty. Testing, regardless of immunity status, plays a crucial role in managing the pandemic.

Science and the Policy Response

0 implied HN points • 13 Jan 21
🔬 Science Research Policy COVID-19 Peer Review Institutions
  1. Science heavily influenced policy-making during the Covid-19 pandemic, tracking the number of cases and playing a significant role in the global response.
  2. Recent research on Covid-19 had a substantial impact on policy-making and was highly cited by both policy-makers and other scientists.
  3. International governmental organizations like the World Health Organization (WHO) played a key role in connecting policy to science, producing more impactful documents compared to national governments or think tanks.

The problem with Numerai’s Erasure protocol

0 implied HN points • 05 Oct 18
🕹 Technology Blockchain Cryptocurrency Predictions Quality Staking
  1. Quality of predictions can be a challenge to assess before the fact, leading to market issues.
  2. Flooding the market with predictions can be avoided by having predictors earn reputations and stake their predictions.
  3. The mechanism of using staking and griefing in prediction markets may not effectively deter bad predictions and flooding, suggesting the need for alternative strategies.

Scholarly Publishing and its Discontents

0 implied HN points • 02 Feb 17
💼 Business Publishing Economics Market Power
  1. Scholarly publishing faces challenges with market power despite attempts like boycotts and open access to change the status quo.
  2. The book discusses economic theories related to scholarly publishing and suggests untried options like reverse price discrimination and unlocking knowledge inside journals.
  3. The aim of the book is to be a valuable read on the economics of scholarly publishing, focusing on roots of market power and proposing alternative solutions.

Trump Training: Twitter may have created Trump (just not in the way you think)

0 implied HN points • 18 Sep 16
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Social media Political Communication Social influence
  1. Twitter played a crucial role in Trump's rise by giving him a direct line to voters without media filters.
  2. Trump's Twitter use may have enhanced his persuasive abilities by forcing him into concise, impactful communication.
  3. With Twitter's character limit and real-time feedback, Trump developed a unique communication style that resonated with many.

Is Kayne West leveraging monopoly power?

0 implied HN points • 16 Feb 16
💼 Business Antitrust Music Monopoly power Competition Market Power
  1. Kayne West released his new album exclusively on Tidal, which he partly owns, possibly leveraging monopoly power to drive traffic away from competitors like Apple.
  2. Determining if Kayne West has monopoly power involves evaluating his impact on the music market and competition levels.
  3. The exclusivity of Kayne West's album on Tidal could potentially lead to increased music service prices, raising concerns about competition and antitrust regulations.

How to generate a Golden Age: TV Edition

0 implied HN points • 25 Dec 15
🎭️ Culture Television Entertainment Media Content creation Streaming
  1. Television is currently in a Golden Age with better content and widespread recognition of its quality.
  2. The shift in television content quality is not due to an explosion in talent, but rather a structural change in how programs are brought to consumers, utilizing time-shifting and social marketing.
  3. The evolution of television programming involves designing content that viewers want as an option, marking a departure from routine-based content delivery.

Oh Air Canada!

0 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Chatbots Legal Customer Service Data Privacy
  1. Businesses are responsible for what their chatbots say, as established by Air Canada paying compensation due to inaccurate information provided by their chatbot.
  2. It's crucial for companies to ensure that the information provided by AI or chatbots is accurate and aligns with their actual policies to prevent legal issues and PR nightmares.
  3. Being reasonable with customers and resolving issues effectively can prevent situations from escalating to legal battles and negative publicity for a company.

Can AI works get copyright protection? (Redux)

0 implied HN points • 07 Sep 23
🕹 Technology AI Copyright Digital Art AI Tools
  1. Copyright protection for AI-generated works is a complex issue that raises questions about authorship, ownership, and the role of AI in the creative process.
  2. The distinction between human creativity and AI technology is blurred in digital works like music, photography, and writing, where AI tools play a significant role.
  3. Determining authorship of AI-generated works involves considering the fine line between human input in guiding AI creations and the independent creative ability of machines.

Begun the Copyright Wars have

0 implied HN points • 09 Jul 23
🕹 Technology Copyright AI Chatbots Data Privacy
  1. Comedian Sarah Silverman and others have filed a class action suit against OpenAI and Meta for alleged copyright infringement related to their works being used in training datasets for AI models like ChatGPT and LLaMA.
  2. This particular case is one of the first instances of copyright disputes emerging about written work involving AI technology.
  3. Despite attempts to prompt the AI model, ChatGPT did not directly reproduce content from the copyrighted books, leading to questions about how these AI systems were trained and what information they have access to.

That Fake AI Generated Photo and the Stock Market

0 implied HN points • 23 May 23
🕹 Technology AI Misinformation Social media Verification Market Reaction
  1. Fake AI-generated images caused a brief dip in the stock market, but the market quickly recovered, showing resilience to misinformation.
  2. The incident highlighted the importance of verifying information before reacting, leading to a discussion on the role of trusted sources in combating misinformation.
  3. The removal of artisanal verification on Twitter raised concerns about the impact on reliable information sources, emphasizing the need for trusted signals in a fast-paced digital world.

How worried should we be about AI misinformation?

0 implied HN points • 14 Apr 23
🕹 Technology AI Misinformation Deception Ethics
  1. AI-generated misinformation may not have a significant impact because when examined closely, the inaccuracies become apparent and unlikely to change beliefs.
  2. While AI tools could flood us with misinformation, it might not necessarily deceive people or lead to major consequences, just confusion about what to believe.
  3. There's concern that AI could be used to create more convincing misinformation, potentially leading to deception and damage, but so far, the evidence for such sophisticated manipulation is lacking.

Two years on

0 implied HN points • 12 Mar 22
🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemic Vaccines Reflection Predictions Rapid tests
  1. Year two of the pandemic has seen a positive shift with vaccines making Covid-19 less life-threatening and more manageable.
  2. Some predictions made for the pandemic's second year were accurate, like widespread vaccination in certain regions, while others, like the elimination of masks and social distancing, have not entirely materialized.
  3. Rapid testing has become a significant tool during the pandemic, though the rise of the Omicron variant has posed challenges to its effectiveness.

NSW vs Ontario: A month later

0 implied HN points • 15 Sep 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccines Public Health Policy
  1. The comparison between New South Wales and Ontario shows a clear divergence in Delta experiences, highlighting the effectiveness of vaccines.
  2. Ontario faces challenges with schools reopening and colder weather ahead, which might test vaccine resistance.
  3. NSW seems to have shifted away from the Covid-Zero strategy, leading to interesting political and economic dynamics within Australia.

Living with the virus

0 implied HN points • 22 Jul 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Pandemic Management Vaccination Leadership
  1. Living with the virus requires leadership to navigate uncertainties and make decisions for the well-being of all.
  2. Regular screening and vaccination are crucial in managing risks associated with the virus, especially in shared spaces like gyms and universities.
  3. Adapting to living with Covid-19 involves shifting mindset from complete avoidance to understanding and managing risks, requiring a balance between precautions and returning to normalcy.

Variance

0 implied HN points • 26 Jun 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Vaccination Economic Impact Mental health Preventive measures
  1. Living with Covid as endemic means acknowledging variance in outbreaks and economic disruption.
  2. Continued outbreaks will disrupt plans and economic activity, leading to supply constraints and potential inflation in the near future.
  3. Investing in systems like rapid screening can help minimize disruptions, but adoption must happen before serious outbreaks occur.

Platinum Government

0 implied HN points • 07 May 14
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Taxation Government programs
  1. There is a growing wealth gap globally and a call to have the rich contribute more in taxes.
  2. The government could adopt a strategy similar to the private sector to encourage the wealthy to pay more taxes voluntarily.
  3. Creating a 'US Platinum' status for individuals who have paid substantial taxes could offer recognition and privileges, potentially changing attitudes towards tax payments.

A Taste of Disruption

0 implied HN points • 24 Feb 16
💼 Business Research Disruption Management
  1. Firms facing demand-side disruption have options to react and defend against the threat.
  2. Supply-side disruption requires firms to be more integrative in how they conduct their business.
  3. The articles mentioned provide a 'lite' treatment of the disruption dilemma for those seeking a quick overview.

Compute, compute, compute!

0 implied HN points • 06 Mar 24
🕹 Technology AI Investment Compute Chips Models
  1. Massive investments are going into AI for developing foundational models like GPT-4 and beyond, with accelerating costs speculated to reach mind-boggling amounts.
  2. Considering basic investment principles, it may be wise to invest in AI when costs are low, demand is known, and there is potential for repurposing resources like chips to maximize value.
  3. There are concerns about the economic justification and practical utility of rapidly escalating AI investments, suggesting a need for a more measured and thoughtful approach.

The next phase of the copyright-AI wars

0 implied HN points • 28 Dec 23
🕹 Technology AI Copyright Legal Battles Language Models Internet
  1. The legal battles around copyright and generative AI are escalating, with the New York Times suing OpenAI and Microsoft for alleged copyright infringement.
  2. Many examples in the lawsuit involve large language models generating text that resembles NYT content, raising questions about whether it constitutes copying.
  3. Understanding how AI prediction machines like LLMs work is crucial in evaluating copyright infringement claims, especially when models generate text probabilistically from publicly available data.

Using AI to research a book

0 implied HN points • 18 Dec 23
🕹 Technology AI Data Analysis Book Writing AI Revolution Image Generation
  1. Author Seth Stephens-Davidowitz utilized AI to significantly speed up his book writing process, completing it in just 30 days with the help of tools like Code Interpreter and ChatGPT.
  2. Stephens-Davidowitz integrated AI for tasks like data analysis, image generation, and even some text writing in his book, showcasing the potential of AI in the creative process.
  3. The author ensured the accuracy of the content by supervising AI-generated material closely, highlighting the importance of human oversight when using AI for writing projects.

Would OpenAI's High-Minded Goals have ever worked?

0 implied HN points • 03 Dec 23
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence AGI Social Impact
  1. Setting up an organization to develop safe AGI with socially-minded governance may not work effectively due to financial constraints and competition from for-profit entities.
  2. Even if OpenAI were to develop AGI first, they may face challenges in maintaining safe AGI products in a competitive market against for-profit entities.
  3. To ensure the availability of safe AGI, a government-run endeavor on a global scale might be more effective than relying on socially-minded organizations.

AI and Election Misinformation

0 implied HN points • 17 Nov 23
🕹 Technology AI Misinformation Elections Deep fakes Trust
  1. Generative AI models can create deepfake content that looks real, leading to misinformation during elections.
  2. People are likely to become more skeptical of information due to the prevalence of AI-generated misinformation, which could reduce the impact of fake content on changing minds.
  3. Organizations capable of identifying and promoting truthful content may gain trust in a world filled with misinformation, but polarization in news sources could hinder their effectiveness in swaying voter preferences.

A whole heap of AI news

0 implied HN points • 12 Nov 23
🕹 Technology AI Regulation Risk
  1. The new AI Executive Orders are heavily critiqued for their lack of embracing uncertainty, trust in human capability, and dictating innovation outcomes.
  2. OpenAI introduces a tool that allows users to create ChatBots without coding, an interesting advancement in AI accessibility.
  3. A new AI wearable device called AI pin aims to replace traditional phones, projecting information on the user's hand, signaling possible future tech advancements.

Bolder experiments for return to the office

0 implied HN points • 14 Oct 23
💼 Business Management Workplace culture Productivity Employee engagement
  1. Organizations are struggling to get employees back into the office after working from home during the pandemic.
  2. Various strategies have been attempted, from forcing employees back to offering office perks, but the desired changes have not been achieved.
  3. A hypothesis suggests that forcing employees back to the office for a sustained period may help establish new routines and show the benefits of in-office work, potentially increasing office attendance in the long run.

Are AI works now copyright free?

0 implied HN points • 22 Aug 23
  1. AI-generated works without human authorship may not be copyright protected, according to a recent court ruling.
  2. The comparison between a monkey's photograph and AI-generated art highlights the requirement of authorship for copyright claims.
  3. Current AI technology does not allow for full authorship rights, but future advancements may change this interpretation.

The White House does "something" on AI

0 implied HN points • 22 Jul 23
🕹 Technology AI Policy Government Research Companies
  1. The White House met with seven AI companies and they agreed to eight commitments on AI, such as internal and external security testing.
  2. Some of the commitments seem like things the companies are already doing, while others may not have a significant impact.
  3. There were some notable absences, like Apple, Tesla, and NVIDIA, from the meeting with the White House, which raises questions about the inclusivity and seriousness of the discussions.

Big Startup News for Australia

0 implied HN points • 19 Jul 23
💼 Business Startups Innovation Education
  1. The Creative Destruction Lab, known for its startup development program, is expanding to Melbourne, Australia.
  2. Australia's potential in startups and innovation is being recognized with the arrival of the Creative Destruction Lab in Melbourne.
  3. The program aims to bring science to market by providing a judgment market, helping Australian startups gain access to resources and support.

The AI Worries of Hollywood Actors

0 implied HN points • 16 Jul 23
🕹 Technology AI Streaming Digital Media Artificial Intelligence Computer Science
  1. The Hollywood writers and actors are on strike due to concerns about how streaming services have impacted their residuals, leading to a renegotiation of contracts.
  2. The writers are worried about generative AI replacing them, leading to demands to regulate the use of AI in writing, while actors are concerned about exploitation by studios when it comes to AI usage in projects.
  3. There is uncertainty about the future impacts of AI on these professions, with a warning for writers and actors to make the most of the current situation while planning for potential career shifts.

Why I am not worried about Superintelligent machines killing us all

0 implied HN points • 23 Jun 23
🕹 Technology AI Superintelligence
  1. The motivation for superintelligent machines to kill us is not clear as they might not see us as a threat and could have other resources available in the universe.
  2. Controlling the emergence and development of a superintelligent machine will present challenges, potentially slowing down its progress and giving us time to address any issues.
  3. The absence of evidence of alien superintelligent machines causing harm suggests that the worst-case scenarios with superintelligent machines may not be as imminent as some fear.

Apple's Big Experiment

0 implied HN points • 06 Jun 23
🕹 Technology AI Virtual reality Augmented reality Artificial Intelligence User Interface
  1. Apple's new Vision Pro device is heavily powered by AI, despite Apple not explicitly mentioning AI in its marketing. The device uses AI for interactions, user interface, latency reduction, and even predicting user behavior.
  2. Apple's approach with the Vision Pro is a 'best foot forward' experiment, focusing on creating a functional and user-friendly spatial computer. The success or failure of this experiment could impact the future of AR and VR technology development.
  3. The Vision Pro's high price tag of $3,499 positions it as a premium product, akin to Apple's previous pricey but successful launches like the original iPhone. The device's success may determine the future of AR and VR investments in the tech industry.

Waiving vaccine patent rights

0 implied HN points • 07 May 21
🏥 Health Politics Vaccine distribution Government funding
  1. Waiving vaccine patent rights is more symbolic than impactful in incentivizing R&D versus broader vaccine distribution.
  2. Patents were not a significant factor in speeding up vaccine development during the pandemic.
  3. The main focus should be on investing in manufacturing facilities and supply chain to produce and distribute vaccines efficiently.

Learning about Estonia's Digital Society

0 implied HN points • 22 May 23
🕹 Technology Digital Society Start-ups Cybersecurity Information Management
  1. Estonia leads the world in having the most $1 billion-plus valued start-ups per capita, showcasing a thriving entrepreneurial ecosystem.
  2. Estonia has achieved an outstanding digital society, with a government that operates paperlessly and based on the principle of entering information only once, setting a new standard for efficiency and convenience.
  3. The success of Estonia's digital transformation was not immediately evident in the physical environment, highlighting the importance of deliberate legal and political decisions driving technological advancements.

Are Acemoglu and Johnson right about AI?

0 implied HN points • 19 May 23
🕹 Technology AI Economics Automation Productivity Innovation
  1. Acemoglu and Johnson discuss how power in the economy is determined by persuasion and political institutions, not just by economic forces. They stress the importance of understanding and addressing these power dynamics.
  2. The authors argue that technology, including AI, is not predetermined to drive inequality; instead, it depends on the choices made by companies and powerful actors. This challenges the idea of inevitable inequality due to technological advancement.
  3. Acemoglu and Johnson express concerns about AI automation potentially leading to the loss of valuable human skills and expertise, emphasizing the importance of considering the long-term impacts of AI adoption. They caution against short-term views on worker contributions.

The aspiration needs perspiration

0 implied HN points • 22 Jan 21
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Pandemic response Policy decisions
  1. The new Biden Pandemic report, while a step forward, lacks hard decisions and specifics like measurable goals, targets, timeline, and direction.
  2. Prioritizing actions like testing in the pandemic response requires hard trade-offs, which need clear priorities and decision-making.
  3. Time is of the essence in addressing the ongoing pandemic crisis, demanding urgent, prioritized, and impactful actions from the new administration.