Joshua Gans' Newsletter

Joshua Gans' Newsletter focuses on analyzing impacts and responses to COVID-19 across various fields including economics, education, health protocols, and technology. It explores pandemic management strategies, vaccine distribution, data management in health crises, and the adaptation of businesses and societal structures amidst the pandemic, emphasizing on innovation and the need for swift adaptation.

Pandemic Management Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Education and COVID-19 Health Protocols and Screening Vaccine Development and Distribution Data Management in Health Crises Technological Adaptations to Pandemics Business Adaptation and Strategy Public Health Communication Societal Changes due to COVID-19

The hottest Substack posts of Joshua Gans' Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Is your professor alive? A Guide

0 implied HN points • 12 Feb 21
🚌 Education Economics Online Learning Student experience
  1. Online education allows professors to scale and reach more students, but the reality is different from the initial hype.
  2. A story of a student unknowingly learning from a deceased professor emphasizes the challenges of discerning if a professor is alive or not in online classes.
  3. Universities might need to be more transparent about the faculty's status to avoid potential long-term issues, like unintentionally paying a deceased professor for years.

Where are things working

0 implied HN points • 03 Feb 21
🏥 Health Politics Screening Contact Tracing Vaccination
  1. Regular screening programs in Nova Scotia and Davis, California have shown success in controlling the spread of Covid-19, highlighting the importance of testing and contact tracing.
  2. The University of California, Davis implemented an ambitious and successful screening bubble that included the surrounding town, which proved to be a model for other universities.
  3. Australia's effective information collection and contact tracing efforts have contributed to their ability to keep Covid-19 cases in check, showing the importance of proactive engagement in data collection even before situations become critical.

What cheeses me off

0 implied HN points • 27 Jan 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccination Public Health Immunity Behavior Science
  1. Vaccination has benefits beyond protection that are being overlooked, like conserving scarce vaccine doses by testing for antibodies in individuals who have already had Covid-19.
  2. Public health messages are simplistic and may not account for evolving situations, such as the potential for vaccinated individuals to spread the virus.
  3. Locking up vaccinated individuals without allowing them more freedom can hinder understanding their role in spreading the virus, and a lack of flexibility in responses may lead to behavioral challenges in the future.

Information provision and individual response

0 implied HN points • 15 Jan 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Public Health Pandemic Management Risk management Behavior Change
  1. People's knowledge about COVID-19 symptoms and transmission mechanisms influenced their adoption of risk mitigation measures like mask-wearing and social distancing.
  2. Government actions such as messaging, mask mandates, and lockdowns played a significant role in changing behavior, with noticeable differences in behavior between countries with and without these measures.
  3. While knowledge was associated with increased protective measures, adoption of social distancing practices was not sufficient, indicating that other factors may influence this behavior.

The Liverpool Experiment

0 implied HN points • 08 Jan 21
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Rapid tests Public Health Epidemiology
  1. A large-scale Covid-19 testing experiment was conducted in Liverpool using a combination of PCR and rapid antigen tests, impacting almost 500,000 people.
  2. Confirmatory PCR tests for positive rapid test results had poor uptake, highlighting challenges in ensuring follow-up testing.
  3. The quality of rapid tests varied, emphasizing the importance of recording and evaluating batch and test type information to identify production issues.
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Eyes on Israel

0 implied HN points • 06 Jan 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccines COVID-19 Immunity Side Effects Public Health
  1. Israel's efficient vaccine distribution showcases excellent preparation and organization.
  2. Israel has a unique opportunity to provide insights into the effectiveness of vaccination against COVID-19.
  3. Israel's approach to vaccine distribution may offer hope for addressing long-term problems, such as providing vaccines to neighboring territories.

Holiday viewing recommendation: the Bee Gees

0 implied HN points • 23 Dec 20
🎶 Music
  1. The Bee Gees' story of overcoming adversity and reinventing themselves can serve as an inspiration during challenging times.
  2. The band faced significant setbacks but chose to adapt, showcasing resilience in the face of uncontrollable circumstances.
  3. Reflecting on the Bee Gees' journey can prompt individuals to consider their own responses to adverse situations and find inspiration to persevere.

Revisiting the number of doses

0 implied HN points • 14 Dec 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccines Immunity Health Management Pandemic Management
  1. Consideration is being given to whether a single dose of the Covid-19 vaccine could be enough, given the potential benefits of quicker vaccination and less logistical constraints.
  2. The effectiveness of one dose of the vaccine is being debated, as initial data suggests it may offer some protection, but uncertainty remains about how long immunity from a single dose lasts.
  3. Ensuring people receive the second vaccine dose may pose a challenge due to potential beliefs that one dose is sufficient, highlighting the importance of clear communication and tracking systems.

Zoom games

0 implied HN points • 04 Dec 20
🎭️ Culture Games
  1. Predict where someone walking during a Zoom meeting will end up for a fun game that boosts meeting energy.
  2. Observe signs to tell if someone is paying attention in a Zoom meeting, like mismatched emotions or frequent video turning off.
  3. Notice private chats happening in Zoom by observing people's reactions and then publicly calling them out to see their response.

Contact tracing works!

0 implied HN points • 30 Nov 20
🏥 Health Politics Contact Tracing Data Management Pandemic response
  1. Contact tracing is an effective method to reduce infections by identifying and isolating those exposed to a virus proactively.
  2. Randomized experiments in scientific inquiries can provide valuable insights, but ethical concerns often prevent conducting them.
  3. The UK Excel spreadsheet error provided inadvertent data for economists to study the impact of contact tracing, revealing its value in reducing infections and deaths.

Economists "versus" epidemiologists

0 implied HN points • 25 Nov 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Epidemiology Public Health Economics Data Communication
  1. Economists and epidemiologists have distinct biases, with the former focused on persuasive economic arguments while the latter often struggles to convince people to act on health advice.
  2. Epidemiologists tend to highlight worst-case scenarios to persuade action, which can sometimes lead to mistrust in projections and slower government responses.
  3. The tools of persuasion differ between economists and epidemiologists, with economists relying on data while epidemiologists are still evolving their policy-making approaches.

The Slovakian model

0 implied HN points • 20 Nov 20
🏥 Health Politics Government Response Policies Public Health
  1. Slovakia implemented mass testing using rapid antigen tests to control an outbreak, which helped identify cases quickly and turn the situation around.
  2. The testing in Slovakia was voluntary but supported by strict isolation measures and fines for non-compliance, leading to successful results and an easing of restrictions.
  3. The success of mass testing in Slovakia serves as an example for other regions to consider in their efforts to combat the pandemic.

A little window on the pandemic

0 implied HN points • 16 Nov 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemic impact
  1. Covid-19 has led to significant economic impacts, with a decrease in mobility and increased vacancies in businesses.
  2. Data from a 25-year study on Bloor Street in Toronto shows a 50% increase in vacancies in 2020 compared to 2019, especially affecting restaurants.
  3. The study reveals that while some businesses did not survive, vacancies will be filled eventually, highlighting the resilience and evolution of local economies.

Pre-emptive warnings to take care

0 implied HN points • 02 Nov 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Prevention Innovation Data Collection Testing
  1. NOVID app offers a different approach to COVID-19 exposure tracking by focusing on self-protection rather than just protecting others.
  2. The app allows users to prepare for potential exposure by managing their contact budget and taking preventive measures.
  3. NOVID can serve as a valuable early warning system for communities like schools or workplaces to take extra precautions and drive further information through rapid testing.

Time to adjust your assessment

0 implied HN points • 06 Nov 20
🚌 Education Assessment Online Learning Diversity Equity Inclusion
  1. When transitioning to online assessments, consider the implications of privacy when using surveillance software - it can invade students' personal spaces and raise trust issues.
  2. Using surveillance software can signal a lack of trust and respect towards students - consider alternative assessment methods to avoid creating a disruptive and distrustful environment.
  3. Surveillance software for exams may disproportionately impact students of color and other protected classes, highlighting the importance of considering diversity, equity, and inclusion in assessment approaches.

Social distancing at the end

0 implied HN points • 28 Oct 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemic response Vaccines Social Distancing Economic Impact Public Health Measures
  1. Vaccines and treatments for the pandemic take time to distribute and may not be perfect when they become available
  2. People's social distancing behavior changes when a vaccine is on the horizon, impacting economic activity
  3. The impact of a vaccine versus a treatment on social distancing behavior and economic activity can differ significantly

Largely out of government control

0 implied HN points • 26 Oct 20
🏥 Health Politics Pandemic response Government intervention Economic Impact Public Health Herd Immunity
  1. Government actions have limited impact on the overall course of the pandemic, with people and their behaviors playing a significant role.
  2. Advocates of 'letting it rip' to achieve herd immunity quickly overlook the potential long-term health costs and economic impacts of such a strategy.
  3. Voluntary social distancing and population density have been crucial factors in influencing the spread of the virus, showing that personal behavior plays a key role in controlling the outbreak.

We can do better on pre-risk assessment

0 implied HN points • 23 Oct 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Information Management Risk Assessment Data Collection
  1. Pre-risk assessment is crucial for better allocation of Covid-19 tests. Higher pre-risk means test results carry more weight.
  2. CDC's protocol for point-of-care tests at nursing homes considers pre-risk, but lacks specific numerical data. More granular information would enhance testing protocols.
  3. Contact tracing apps could be leveraged to assess pre-risk levels, aiding in more accurate test allocation without compromising privacy.

Data Week: How to collect data

0 implied HN points • 16 Oct 20
🔬 Science Data Collection Analysis Innovation Public Health Statistics
  1. Data collected at a manhole level can help detect outbreaks more rapidly and support targeted interventions.
  2. Sophisticated statistical techniques can provide a deeper understanding of outbreaks by leveraging sewage system data.
  3. Bayesian framework can convert sewage flows into probability flows to identify hot spot neighborhoods with just a few samples.

What have we learned about the coronavirus?

0 implied HN points • 21 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Policy Data Analysis Epidemiology Public Health
  1. The growth rate of daily deaths from COVID-19 falls rapidly within 30 days post reaching 25 cumulative deaths, a pattern observed universally.
  2. After the initial decline, the growth rate of daily deaths hovers around zero or slightly below, suggesting a steady rate of new deaths each day.
  3. Variability in growth rates of deaths among regions decreases after the initial epidemic period, stabilizing around zero, indicating similar experiences across regions.

Vaccine Week: How fast can it be distributed?

0 implied HN points • 14 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccine distribution Vaccine Efficacy Health Policy
  1. The distribution of a Covid-19 vaccine involves complex challenges such as raw material shortages, unique supply chain links, and production innovation issues like mRNA vaccine technologies.
  2. Governments will need to prioritize who receives the vaccine first due to limited initial supplies, potentially leading to lottery-based allocations and individualistic or regional distribution strategies.
  3. Efficiently distributing vaccines to accelerate the end of the pandemic requires balancing targeted distribution to achieve herd immunity in specific areas versus more widespread distribution to lower the overall reproduction rate across the country.

Things left lying around

0 implied HN points • 11 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19 Masks Movies
  1. Testing wastewater from dorms can be an effective way to manage the spread of viruses on college campuses.
  2. Health Canada is now considering approving at-home COVID-19 tests, showing a willingness to adapt during the pandemic.
  3. The UK subsidizing restaurant meals results in increased interest, showing that incentives like these can have a positive impact on the economy.

How often should you test?

0 implied HN points • 09 Sep 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Wellness COVID-19 Economics Rapid Testing
  1. Frequent and rapid testing plays a key role in limiting the spread of viruses like COVID-19.
  2. The frequency of testing and the accuracy of the tests are crucial in determining how effectively infectious individuals can be isolated.
  3. Testing every two to three days with a moderate error rate can be more effective than testing less frequently with higher accuracy.

Job performance and parental leave in Covid-19

0 implied HN points • 07 Sep 20
💼 Business Performance reviews Incentives Crisis Management
  1. Companies reacted to challenges faced by parents during Covid-19 by granting them extra leave, which was necessary for maintaining productivity and work-life balance.
  2. Leadership decisions during crises like Covid-19 show the importance of balancing fairness with acknowledging the need for superior performance.
  3. Effective communication, fair treatment for all employees, and providing incentives for performance are critical for ensuring resilience and success during major events like Covid-19.

Special Post on the New Australian Lockdown

0 implied HN points • 06 Sep 20
🌍 World Politics Economic Implications
  1. The reopening plan after the Australian lockdown is cautious with staged relaxations of restrictions based on decreasing daily cases.
  2. The Victorian government's modeling for reopening is based on an agent-based epidemiological model, focusing on limiting people's movement to stop virus spread.
  3. Suggestions for Victoria include trying other modeling approaches, monitoring low prevalence areas for outbreaks, and emphasizing aggressive testing and tracing when cases are low.

Test Week: Scale and Speed

0 implied HN points • 19 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Testing Costs Speed Mitigation Strategy
  1. Widespread testing for Covid-19 requires cheap tests and fast results to isolate infected individuals quickly.
  2. Lowering costs and increasing speed of testing are essential for successful mitigation of Covid-19 spread.
  3. Using a strategic testing approach, combining low-cost, rapid tests with high sensitivity tests, can significantly enhance the effectiveness of mitigation strategies.

Test Week: Finding the Right Fit

0 implied HN points • 18 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness
  1. Choosing the right test type matters in decision-making - depending on whether you want few false positives for diagnosis or few false negatives for clearance.
  2. Tests like PCR have high specificity but can miss the window of contagiousness due to the threshold chosen, affecting accuracy for isolation decisions.
  3. Tests need to be evaluated based on the context they are used for, like clearance, rather than relying solely on diagnostic benchmarks, to effectively mitigate the spread of the virus.

Test Week: The Information Gap

0 implied HN points • 17 Aug 20
🔬 Science Health Testing Epidemiology Information Decisions
  1. Testing for a virus like Covid-19 helps solve the information problem for pandemics, potentially saving costs and impacting decisions like diagnosis, clearance, surveillance, and mitigation.
  2. The effectiveness of tests relies on the prevalence of the virus in the population; when prevalence is low, test results can be noisier and less useful.
  3. Contact tracing complements testing by providing additional information, especially in increasing the value of imperfect tests by identifying those more likely to be infected.

The Reopening Party

0 implied HN points • 13 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemic response Government Influence Consumer behavior Risk Assessment Safety measures
  1. People responded to government reopening by venturing out quickly, even more eagerly than they curtailed activities before lockdowns.
  2. The trusted government theory suggests that people trusted government information post-lockdown, but not pre-lockdown, leading to their swift return to activities.
  3. Alternative theories suggest that post-lockdown rush could be due to pent-up demand after restrictions, or due to perceived safety improvements like social distancing measures.

Why R tends towards 1

0 implied HN points • 12 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Epidemiology Human behavior Public Health Pandemics Immunity
  1. People's behavior plays a significant role in determining how a pandemic like Covid-19 progresses, even more than epidemiological models predict.
  2. Understanding the concept of R0, the basic reproduction number, helps in identifying peak infection points and herd immunity thresholds.
  3. Human behavior can cause fluctuations in the effective reproduction rate of a virus, ultimately leading to an equilibrium point where the virus becomes stable and endemic.

How's Work From Home going?

0 implied HN points • 10 Aug 20
💼 Business Remote work Productivity Collaboration Economics Management
  1. The forced work-from-home experiment during Covid-19 has led to longer work hours and increased meetings, possibly changing future work habits permanently.
  2. People have been surprisingly productive while working from home, leading to businesses reevaluating the necessity of physical office spaces.
  3. While working from home can be beneficial, there are disparities between richer and poorer individuals and impacts on businesses in city centers.

Assigning blame for Covid

0 implied HN points • 06 Aug 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemics
  1. Blaming others during the Covid crisis is natural, but it's more important to evaluate decisions and focus on improving institutions for future pandemics.
  2. During outbreaks, the handling and reporting of information are crucial for effective response; in past pandemics, issues with information dissemination caused delays and panic.
  3. The blame game can have long-lasting consequences and it's essential to set the right incentives for future situations, even if identifying responsibility for the initial Covid-19 response may take years.

That DisneyWorld Reopening: An Opportunity Lost

0 implied HN points • 13 Jul 20
🎭️ Culture Entertainment Fashion Travel
  1. Disney missed an opportunity to make mask-wearing fun and whimsical at the reopening of DisneyWorld in Florida.
  2. Despite the company's ability to get people to buy and wear fun accessories like ears, they fell short in creating appealing mask solutions for the park.
  3. The employees and visitors at Disney parks were seen wearing plain masks, missing a chance to showcase creativity and magic during these challenging times.

Will a COVID-19 vaccine exacerbate the economic downturn?

0 implied HN points • 12 Jul 20
🏥 Health Politics Vaccine distribution Economic Impact Public Behavior Pandemic response
  1. Many are pinning hopes on a COVID-19 vaccine to end the pandemic, but the distribution process may lead to a prolonged economic downturn.
  2. The arrival of a vaccine could bring about changes in social distancing behaviors, leading to negative impacts on consumer activities and businesses.
  3. While a vaccine may be beneficial in the long run, in the short term, it could pose challenges for the economy, requiring preparation for the potential consequences.

Hey Apple! Apple’s App Store Controversies

0 implied HN points • 20 Jun 20
🕹 Technology App Store Policies Economics Antitrust Developers
  1. Apple's App Store policies regarding in-app purchases have sparked controversy, with Hey.com's app being halted for not offering in-app subscription purchases and wanting to avoid Apple's fees.
  2. Apple's 30 percent revenue cut from in-app purchases is seen as a form of price discrimination that could potentially lower iPhone prices by redistributing costs.
  3. Concerns have been raised about developers' fear of publicly criticizing Apple's rules, highlighting a potential issue of stifled voice that should be addressed for a healthy ecosystem.

Smell Test Now

0 implied HN points • 01 Apr 20
🏥 Health & Wellness COVID-19
  1. Around March 20, COVID-19 patients reported a loss of smell, which sparked news reports and discussions about using this symptom for screening.
  2. Google search trends for 'can't smell' and 'sense of smell' suggested a possible correlation with news reports rather than actual symptoms, warranting more detailed data analysis.
  3. Monitoring search trends for 'Anosmia' and 'Ageusia' across different countries could provide insights into how news and localized outbreaks influence public awareness of COVID-19 symptoms.

A War Footing: Surfing the Curve

0 implied HN points • 14 Mar 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemic response Economic Impact Policy Solutions
  1. In dealing with Covid-19, there is a need to balance between minimizing short-term costs and minimizing medium-term costs, which presents a conflict.
  2. Flattening the curve is not enough to combat the pandemic effectively and can be very costly due to its impact on the health care system capacity.
  3. To address the limitations of flattening the curve, there is a critical need for a dramatic, immediate increase in healthcare capacity like what was done in Wuhan, calling for a war-like mindset.

The Podcast Business Model

0 implied HN points • 26 Apr 19
💼 Business Podcasts Startups Business Models Content Monetization
  1. Luminary aims to be the Netflix of Podcasts by offering a subscription-based, ad-free platform with high-profile content creators.
  2. The podcasting evolution started with free content and ads, but now Luminary's strategy of offering premium content but with flaws in execution has raised questions about their business model.
  3. Failure to define target audience, unclear technology choices, and lack of differentiation from other podcast platforms are key challenges faced by Luminary, highlighting the importance of a well-thought-out strategy in the podcast industry.