Daily Chartbook

Daily Chartbook is a Substack focusing on economic and market trends through curated charts and insights. It covers aspects of the housing market, consumer behavior, global economic indicators, financial conditions, and sector-specific challenges, providing a broad view of current economic health and future expectations.

Housing Market Trends Consumer Behavior Global Economic Indicators Financial Conditions Sector-Specific Challenges Labor Market Dynamics Trade and Commerce Monetary Policy Impacts

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Daily Chartbook #309

1179 implied HN points • 26 Oct 23
  1. Mortgage rates reached the highest point in over 20 years at 8.04%.
  2. Everyone except Millennials locked in lower 3% mortgage rates.
  3. Mortgage demand is on the decline.

Daily Chartbook #260

1493 implied HN points • 17 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy Investing Markets Banking Assets
  1. Mortgage purchase applications decrease, showing minimal demand
  2. Housing starts rise, with single-family starts at a high and multi-family starts at a low
  3. Building permits increase slightly, with single-family permits at a high and multi-family permits at a low

Daily Chartbook #252

1545 implied HN points • 05 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy Markets Investing Inflation Debt
  1. The median home sale price increased by 3.2% from a year earlier, reaching $380,250.
  2. Monthly mortgage payments for the typical U.S. homebuyer increased by 19% to $2,605 compared to a year earlier.
  3. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index rose to -0.90 in July from -1.14 in June.

Daily Chartbook #307

1179 implied HN points • 24 Oct 23
  1. The cost of buying a home versus renting is at its most extreme since 1996, with new mortgage payments 52% higher than average apartment rent.
  2. Home purchases are falling through at the highest rate in nearly a year.
  3. Companies globally accelerated price increases this month.
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Daily Chartbook #285

1310 implied HN points • 22 Sep 23
  1. Existing home sales dropped 0.7% MoM leaving sales down 15.3% YoY.
  2. Prices of existing homes have held firm with median price above $400,000 for three months.
  3. The Federal Reserve expects stronger growth, lower unemployment, and slightly cooler inflation.

Daily Chartbook #304

1152 implied HN points • 19 Oct 23
  1. Mortgage demand is historically weak, hitting lowest levels in decades.
  2. Mortgage rates on 30-year fixed mortgages have reached 8%, the highest since 2000.
  3. Building permits beat expectations, but housing starts saw a smaller than expected rise.

Daily Chartbook #248

1493 implied HN points • 01 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy Investments Markets Banking Stocks
  1. Zillow expects U.S. home prices to rise 6.3% between June 2023 and June 2024.
  2. Zillow's rent index indicates a sharp decline in rent prices ahead.
  3. Resuming student loan payments in October will decrease consumer spending by about $9 billion per month.

Daily Chartbook #311

1100 implied HN points • 28 Oct 23
  1. Tighter credit conditions for small companies could lead to lower employment growth.
  2. Deutsche Bank's models show a higher neutral rate known as R-Star.
  3. Market expectations about Federal Reserve actions often prove to be inaccurate in the long term.

Daily Chartbook #283

1257 implied HN points • 20 Sep 23
  1. Home construction activity is fluctuating with varying trends in housing starts and building permits.
  2. US freight market is experiencing challenges with negative year-over-year comparisons and unexpected declines in September.
  3. Global GDP growth is expected to ease in 2024 after a modest expansion this year, according to OECD forecasts.

Daily Chartbook #269

1336 implied HN points • 30 Aug 23
  1. Home prices in America's 20 largest cities rose for the 4th straight month but are still down over 1% YoY.
  2. The FHFA House Price Index had a 3.1% YoY increase and marked the 6th consecutive monthly gain.
  3. Financial conditions are currently tight, indicated by the Real 10-Year Yield Less The Neutral Rate being at its highest level since before the last 4 recessions.

Daily Chartbook #251

1441 implied HN points • 04 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy Investing Markets Stocks Analysis
  1. Newly listed homes declined by 20.8% in July compared to the previous year.
  2. Active listings of homes decreased by 6.4% compared to last year.
  3. The U.S. homeowner vacancy rate dropped to 0.7% in the second quarter, the lowest since 1956.

Daily Chartbook #275

1283 implied HN points • 08 Sep 23
  1. There is a supply shortage in the housing market, leading to rising prices.
  2. Consumer sentiment towards homebuying is currently at multi-decade lows.
  3. Remote job postings are declining faster than other groups, indicating a shift in work dynamics.

Daily Chartbook #277

1257 implied HN points • 12 Sep 23
  1. Logistics Managers Index improved after 4 months
  2. Q2 saw lowest number of S&P 500 companies citing 'inflation'
  3. Home price growth expectations are back at pre-pandemic levels

Daily Chartbook #282

1205 implied HN points • 19 Sep 23
  1. US homebuilder sentiment at lowest since April based on NAHB report
  2. US labor market showing signs of cooling down
  3. Divergent GDP estimates between Atlanta Fed and St. Louis Fed

Daily Chartbook #256

1362 implied HN points • 11 Aug 23
  1. New listings for homes for sale fell 16.5% year over year.
  2. Active listings dropped 17.9% compared to a year earlier.
  3. Median home sale price increased by 3% from a year earlier, the largest rise since November.

Daily Chartbook #270

1257 implied HN points • 31 Aug 23
  1. Pending home sales rose 0.9% in July, surprising analysts.
  2. Real estate investors saw a 45% drop in home purchases compared to last year's second quarter.
  3. Rent growth turned negative last month for the first time since the pandemic began.

Daily Chartbook #308

1021 implied HN points • 25 Oct 23
  1. The ATA Truck Tonnage Index dropped 1.1% in September.
  2. The latest S&P Global Flash US PMIs showed growth in private sector output.
  3. The US is the only region not in contraction according to Global PMIs.

Daily Chartbook #257

1310 implied HN points • 12 Aug 23
  1. US home values reached a record $47 trillion in June due to a shortage of houses for sale
  2. Bank lending standards are tightening while financial conditions remain low
  3. Non-financial firms' net profit margins are twice as high as in the late 1990s despite recent contractions

Daily Chartbook #245

1362 implied HN points • 27 Jul 23
  1. New home sales dropped 2.5% last month but are still up almost 24% YoY.
  2. The US Census Bureau reports the largest decline in US home prices in the first half of 2023.
  3. There are 600k more realtors than there are homes for sale.

Daily Chartbook #259

1257 implied HN points • 16 Aug 23
  1. Homebuilder sentiment deteriorated in August with all components, like prospective buyers traffic, falling.
  2. US and EU commercial real estate is a top credit concern among FMS investors.
  3. High inflation and hawkish central banks are the biggest tail risks for FMS investors.

Daily Chartbook #244

1336 implied HN points • 26 Jul 23
  1. Home prices are rising more than expected for the past 3 months.
  2. Prices of single-family homes increased by 0.7% in May.
  3. Office transaction volumes decreased significantly compared to the previous year.

Daily Chartbook #238

1362 implied HN points • 18 Jul 23
  1. Home listings at an all-time low in June
  2. Median home sale price close to all-time high in June
  3. Smallest decline in home sale price in June compared to past months

Daily Chartbook #250

1283 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
  1. Heavy truck sales increased by 18% compared to the same time last year.
  2. Global trade appears to be recovering as seen in container throughput.
  3. Changes in the supply index indicate the possibility of future goods deflation.

Daily Chartbook #254

1257 implied HN points • 09 Aug 23
  1. Shadow banks hold almost half of global financial assets.
  2. Fed's tightening cycle has increased funding costs for businesses.
  3. Corporate debt maturing is expected to rise sharply from 2024.

Daily Chartbook #274

1100 implied HN points • 07 Sep 23
  1. Mortgage demand has dropped for the 6th time in 7 weeks.
  2. There is upward pressure on US rates due to $7.6 trillion in maturing US government bonds.
  3. Credit management survey shows bankruptcies increased by 2.1 and stand at 50.2.

Daily Chartbook #170

1755 implied HN points • 29 Mar 23
💰 Finance Markets Economy Investing Stocks
  1. US home prices fell for the 7th straight month, lowest growth since Nov 2019
  2. Container traffic in US ports dropped compared to the same time last year
  3. February goods deficit increased with exports down by 3.8% and imports by 2.3%

Daily Chartbook #234

1310 implied HN points • 12 Jul 23
  1. Home prices are expected to grow by 4.5% in the next 12 months.
  2. Office investment is predicted to decrease by 30% by the end of 2024.
  3. Excess savings could turn into precautionary savings based on the labor market's condition.

Daily Chartbook #169

1755 implied HN points • 28 Mar 23
💰 Finance Banking Investing Market Trends Economy Stocks
  1. US banks have tightened lending standards in autos and credit cards this quarter.
  2. Probability of the economy entering a recession in the next 12 months is at 35%.
  3. Bank deposits in the banking sector have declined by almost $600bn since the Fed began to raise interest rates.

Daily Chartbook #247

1231 implied HN points • 29 Jul 23
  1. A first-time homebuyer needs to earn $64,500 per year to afford a typical 'starter' home in the U.S., a 13% increase from the previous year.
  2. Household debt service in the U.S. remains low despite higher interest rates.
  3. Countries that have raised policy rates show mostly positive GDP growth and decreasing unemployment rates.