Don't Worry About the Vase

A world made of gears. Doing both speed premium short term updates and long term world model building. Currently focused on weekly AI updates. Explorations include AI, policy, rationality, medicine and fertility, education and games.

The hottest Substack posts of Don't Worry About the Vase

And their main takeaways

Change Is Bad

0 implied HN points • 20 Jul 17
  1. Almost all changes are bad
  2. The more optimized things are, the less likely a change is good
  3. Change is necessary, but must be approached cautiously

Covid 10/14: Less Long Covid

0 implied HN points • 14 Oct 21
  1. Cases and deaths are declining as expected.
  2. Approvals for boosters and children vaccines are progressing slowly.
  3. A study on Long Covid had a significant error, leading to overestimation.

Covid 7/8: Delta Takes Over

0 implied HN points • 08 Jul 21
  1. The Delta variant is becoming dominant in Covid cases globally.
  2. Vaccination progress is key in dealing with the Delta variant.
  3. Analysis of lockdown effectiveness shows the importance of making decisions considering uncertainty.

The Apprentice Thread

0 implied HN points • 17 Jun 21
  1. Apprenticeships are a successful but underused strategy for learning
  2. Chutzpah, or boldness, is important for asking for what you want
  3. Encouraging mentorship and apprenticeship can lead to positive outcomes

Covid 7/1: Don't Panic

0 implied HN points • 01 Jul 21
  1. Don't panic about the recent increase in Covid cases - it might not all be due to the Delta variant.
  2. Consider the regional differences in vaccination rates when analyzing Covid data.
  3. Stay informed about Covid variants like Delta, and how they might impact different regions.
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Covid 5/6: Vaccine Patent Suspension

0 implied HN points • 06 May 21
  1. The Biden administration is suspending vaccine patents without compensation, impacting future medical advancements.
  2. Young children aren't at high risk from Covid, so if everyone around them is vaccinated, summer camp should be fine.
  3. Sabotaging vaccine production by removing intellectual property protections is a harmful precedent with no real benefits.

Return to New York City

0 implied HN points • 15 Mar 21
  1. The author loves New York City and feels like it's their home.
  2. Getting the vaccine in New York City felt efficient and safe, with good precautions in place.
  3. Despite rumors of New York City being a ghost town, the author found that the city was still vibrant and full of life.

Covid: Bill Gates and Vaccine Production

0 implied HN points • 28 Jan 21
  1. Vaccine production, especially by Pfizer and Moderna, needed more funding, but only Bill Gates took steps towards solving the issue.
  2. Although Gates pledged billions for vaccine development, the actual amount contributed was only 1.5 billion, which wasn't enough.
  3. Efforts by Gates Foundation seem to prioritize third-world distribution over accelerating vaccine production, potentially hindered by corporate deals and public perception.

Covid 11/19: Don't Do Stupid Things

0 implied HN points • 19 Nov 20
  1. Two vaccines are showing high effectiveness against Covid-19 - over 90%
  2. Cases and hospitalizations are increasing, but Midwest may be peaking
  3. It's crucial to avoid stupid things like indoor gatherings without masks to stay safe

Covid 10/15: Playtime is Over

0 implied HN points • 15 Oct 20
  1. A deadly pandemic has serious economic and social impacts, dividing people with different approaches to handling it.
  2. Midwest sees a significant increase in COVID-19 cases, while positive test percentages also rise in other regions.
  3. Monoclonal antibodies show promise in lowering death rates, but logistical challenges and equity concerns arise in administering the treatment.

Covid 9/17: It's Worse

0 implied HN points • 17 Sep 20
  1. Precautions against COVID-19 proving insufficient as pandemic worsens
  2. Decline in testing and rise in positive test percentages indicate a major change
  3. Europe experiencing a second wave of COVID-19, emphasizing continuous vigilance

Covid 9/3: Meet the New CDC

0 implied HN points • 03 Sep 20
  1. CDC's transformation into a White House arm is complete.
  2. Midwest COVID cases are concerning, but deaths are decreasing overall.
  3. CDC advises states to prepare for vaccine distribution by November 1, hinting at potential political motives.

Spoiler-Free Review: Death and Taxes

0 implied HN points • 29 Aug 20
  1. Death and Taxes is a short Tier 3 game, worth trying but not a must-play
  2. It involves making discrete choices and poses interesting questions
  3. Best experienced with minimal information beforehand

I Started a Sports and Gambling Substack

0 implied HN points • 25 Aug 20
  1. The author started a sports and gambling Substack.
  2. The Substack contains predictions for baseball games.
  3. The author aims to keep sports modeling and gambling content separate from their rationality blog.

Covid 8/20: A Little Progress

0 implied HN points • 20 Aug 20
  1. Covid numbers show signs of improvement with decreasing positive tests and hospitalizations
  2. There's new FDA-approved rapid test due to NBA's collaboration
  3. CDC and Sweden's differing views on mask usage causing debate

Covid 8/13: Same As It Ever Was

0 implied HN points • 13 Aug 20
  1. Questions about Covid testing and data inconsistencies need attention and follow-up.
  2. The decline in testing and rise in positive test rates are concerning trends to monitor closely.
  3. Bill Gates is commended for his efforts in Covid response and funding for vaccines, highlighting the challenges and inefficiencies in Covid testing and government response.

Covid 7/30: Whack a Mole

0 implied HN points • 30 Jul 20
  1. Positive test rates are improving in the South and West, but worsening in the Midwest and Northeast.
  2. Deaths are increasing in the South, indicating a troubling trend.
  3. Different regions have varying Covid situations, and critical decision-making surrounding the virus is crucial for containment.

Covid-19 5/29: Dumb Reopening

0 implied HN points • 29 May 20
  1. New York is improving in terms of infection risk and has seen a significant decrease in infections.
  2. The rest of the nation is experiencing mixed results, with some regions showing improvements while others are moving backwards.
  3. The reopening and increased activity could potentially lead to a second wave of COVID-19 infections, especially if behaviors do not adapt to the 'new normal.'

Spoiler-Free Review: Assassin's Creed Odyssey

0 implied HN points • 26 May 20
  1. Assassin's Creed Odyssey is a lengthy, expansive game set in ancient Greece with a gorgeous open world and strong story.
  2. Gameplay involves real-time battles, quests, improving gear, and choosing abilities in a one-player MMO style.
  3. Considerations include the game's length, combat mechanics, and balance of exploration with guided gameplay.

Plague in Assassin's Creed Odyssey

0 implied HN points • 24 May 20
  1. Assassin's Creed Odyssey portrays how society reacts to a plague: the choices you make affect how you are perceived.
  2. The game shows that even when you do the right thing, you can still be punished for allowing others to take harmful actions.
  3. The game reflects how societies historically have reacted to plagues - with fear, confusion, and sometimes misguided actions.

Covid 5/14: Limbo Under

0 implied HN points • 14 May 20
  1. Nation is reopening slowly, uncertain if it's too soon or too much.
  2. Positive test counts dropped in all regions as testing expanded.
  3. Deaths are a lagging indicator, but overall situation is improving.

Covid-19: Comorbidity

0 implied HN points • 10 May 20
  1. The biggest risk factor for death from Covid-19 is age.
  2. Hypertension and diabetes are significant comorbidities that increase the risk of death, especially at younger ages.
  3. Obesity is a major risk factor for severe outcomes of Covid-19, particularly for individuals under 60 years old.

Covid-19: New York's Antibody Tests 2

0 implied HN points • 06 May 20
  1. New York is conducting antibody tests and releasing population information, providing insights into COVID-19 spread.
  2. The data patterns suggest systematic errors in data collection and changes in behavior affecting test results.
  3. Recommendations include disclosing more data details, using more representative samples, testing different groups, and conducting surveys to improve understanding of infection risk factors.

Evaluating Predictions in Hindsight

0 implied HN points • 16 Apr 20
  1. Evaluating predictions in hindsight involves looking at various metrics like money earned, simulation testing, comparing to market odds, and assessing hidden assumptions.
  2. Evaluating past predictions can be in 'easy mode' with lots of available data points, or 'hard mode' with individual and singular events.
  3. It's important to use a variety of evaluation methods and not be overly confident in predictions to avoid being fooled or overlooking important factors.

Ten Causes of Mazedom

0 implied HN points • 25 Jan 20
  1. Modern life has larger organizations with more levels of hierarchy, leading to higher overall maze levels.
  2. Laws and regulations favor large organizations, creating structural advantages and promoting mission creep.
  3. The lack of major destructive shocks, coupled with regulatory capture and crony capitalism, contributes to the rise of maze behaviors in organizations.

How Doomed are Large Organizations?

0 implied HN points • 21 Jan 20
  1. Large organizations tend to face inevitable challenges and pressures over time.
  2. To prevent negative dynamics, strong organizational culture and careful hiring practices are crucial.
  3. Consider the trade-offs of creating large organizations, as they can become less effective and more toxic over time.

The Road to Mazedom

0 implied HN points • 18 Jan 20
  1. Individual actions matter and can add up in a world of mazes
  2. Focus on personal advancement within hierarchies can lead to maze-like behaviors
  3. Organizational cultures can shift and change over time

How Escape From Immoral Mazes

0 implied HN points • 16 Jan 20
  1. Being trapped in immoral mazes is not worth it, even if you reach the top.
  2. If you find yourself inside a maze, quit or start planning to leave.
  3. Understand and communicate reasons for avoiding mazes, and be prepared to take risks or change paths if needed.

Imperfect Competition

0 implied HN points • 30 Dec 19
  1. Local farmers' markets demonstrate imperfect competition with unique goods, costly information for consumers and producers, and regional advantages.
  2. Supermarkets show competition is not perfect with differentiated products, brand loyalty, and varied pricing strategies.
  3. Restaurants and car markets exhibit competition challenges with skill and location mattering, differentiated products, and inefficient processes.

Vantress Gargoyle Dimir

0 implied HN points • 13 Dec 19
  1. Exploration of the Vantress Gargoyle Dimir deck strategy
  2. Key cards for the deck include Vantress Gargoyle, Into the Story, and Drown in the Lock
  3. Strategies for sideboarding and matchup considerations are crucial for success

Simple Rules of Law

0 implied HN points • 19 May 19
  1. People often prefer discretion over simple rules when it comes to important decisions because it allows them to avoid blame or manipulation.
  2. Complex systems are often used to mask factors that are illegal, unethical, or could lead to blame, creating opportunities for corruption.
  3. Simple rules can lead to adverse effects like gaming the system, reinforcing power structures, or creating situations where only superficial success is rewarded.

Tales from the Highway

0 implied HN points • 12 May 19
  1. Unexpected events can significantly impact travel plans.
  2. Communication and flexibility are key in dealing with unexpected situations.
  3. Sometimes it's best to take matters into your own hands rather than wait indefinitely.

Dishonest Update Reporting

0 implied HN points • 04 May 19
  1. Individuals may strategically update their predictions to appear more competent or avoid being criticized
  2. To ensure accurate information, rely on methods like prediction markets or log likelihood scoring instead of human judgment
  3. Combatting dishonest behavior in reporting updates may require complex incentives and might not be entirely successful

Reflections on Duo Standard

0 implied HN points • 18 Apr 19
  1. Duo Standard format is considered not good and there is a need for improvement.
  2. The importance of understanding the game theory, metagame shifts, and strategic decisions in Duo Standard is crucial.
  3. Experimenting with different formats and the concept of teams in gameplay can lead to innovative solutions and more engaging dynamics.

Deck Guide: Biomancer's Familiar

0 implied HN points • 26 Mar 19
  1. Biomancer's Familiar deck is fun and strong, but not quite competitive at the highest levels.
  2. The deck has potential for improvement with tweaks or new additions.
  3. Matchup strategies and sideboarding play a crucial role in the deck's success.

Privacy

0 implied HN points • 15 Mar 19
  1. Privacy is essential for a reasonable and good life, allowing us a space to be ourselves without fear of judgment.
  2. Privacy enables us to make necessary decisions and actions that may go against societal norms without facing repercussions.
  3. Privacy protects our resources, including emotional, creative, and decision-making abilities, and allows us the freedom to respond strategically in various situations.

Preschool: Much Less Than You Wanted To Know

0 implied HN points • 20 Nov 18
  1. Preschool may have a short-term academic boost, but it fades quickly.
  2. Forcing academic skills on young children might not be effective in the long run.
  3. It's suggested to focus on different types of activities for young children and let them be kids.

The Art of the Overbet

0 implied HN points • 19 Oct 18
  1. In situations where not winning is catastrophic, it's okay to bet big for a chance at success.
  2. For scenarios where losing is acceptable or unavoidable, taking calculated risks can be more beneficial than playing it safe.
  3. You need to consider more than just money when assessing risk - resources like time, health, relationships, and opportunity are also critical factors to weigh.

The Kelly Criterion

0 implied HN points • 15 Oct 18
  1. The Kelly Criterion is a formula to determine how much to wager on a given opportunity.
  2. When considering betting or investing, understanding the Kelly Criterion is crucial for proper decision-making.
  3. Being cautious with wager sizes is essential to preserve your bankroll, especially when your edge is uncertain.