Don't Worry About the Vase

A world made of gears. Doing both speed premium short term updates and long term world model building. Currently focused on weekly AI updates. Explorations include AI, policy, rationality, medicine and fertility, education and games.

The hottest Substack posts of Don't Worry About the Vase

And their main takeaways

Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously

0 implied HN points • 01 Apr 20
  1. Initial viral load has a significant impact on severity of Covid-19 infection.
  2. Strong evidence supports the importance of considering viral load, including historical precedents.
  3. Recommendations include gathering better data, encouraging smaller household groups, and considering bold actions if needed.

An Open Letter To The Congregation Regarding The Upcoming Holiday

0 implied HN points • 06 Mar 20
  1. The story of Purim conveys a message of standing up against threats and oppression.
  2. It is important to speak up and take action in the face of danger, even if it means going against social norms.
  3. During the holiday season, it's crucial to prioritize safety measures like social distancing, hand hygiene, and avoiding large gatherings.

Protecting Large Projects Against Mazedom

0 implied HN points • 03 Feb 20
  1. Recognize the importance of doing less and being smaller to protect large projects from becoming mazes.
  2. Minimize levels of hierarchy to reduce toxicity and maintain effectiveness in scaling up.
  3. Ensure skin in the game and soul in the game, hire and fire carefully, fight for culture, and avoid other mazes to protect large projects against becoming mazes.

Create a Full Alternative Stack

0 implied HN points • 31 Jan 20
  1. Implementing a full alternative stack requires disengaging from traditional practices and incentives in favor of pursuing genuine goals.
  2. The creation of a full alternative stack provides financial security and tenure-like outcomes for those involved.
  3. A venture capital fund that commits to full funding for projects could lead to better outcomes by avoiding the pressure to conform to traditional funding models.

Perfect Competition

0 implied HN points • 29 Dec 19
  1. Perfect competition is a theoretical market structure with specific characteristics
  2. Super-perfect competition involves more aggressive market dynamics
  3. In a system of perfect competition, value is lost for participants but can be gained by those outside
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Meditation Retreat: Immoral Mazes Sequence Introduction

0 implied HN points • 28 Dec 19
  1. The author reflects on their experience at a meditation retreat and the decision to leave early.
  2. The author plans to finish and publish a series of posts related to topics like Moloch and Immoral Mazes.
  3. The concept of Immoral Mazes is introduced as a system with multiple layers of hierarchy that induce intense competition among middle managers.

Unknown Knowns

0 implied HN points • 28 Aug 18
  1. Prediction markets can accurately predict replication of scientific studies
  2. Studies that didn't replicate showed very close to no effect
  3. Under-confidence and underestimation are common in scientific predictions

Three on Two: Temur Walkers, Elk Blade, Goblin Blade and Dino Blade

0 implied HN points • 14 Nov 19
  1. Temur Walkers deck used Arboreal Grazer and Gilded Goose to play planeswalkers early.
  2. Elk Blade deck focused on playing creatures like Questing Beast with Embercleave.
  3. Goblin Blade deck switched to a Gruul deck with cards like Krenko, Tin Street Kingpin for faster wins.

Mistake Versus Conflict Theory of Against Billionaire Philanthropy

0 implied HN points • 01 Aug 19
  1. Using resources to improve the world through billionaire philanthropy is good and should be praised.
  2. Billionaire philanthropy should be directed towards making the most impact based on the giver's beliefs.
  3. Recognize the difference between mistake theorists and conflict theorists when discussing opposition to billionaire philanthropy.

Magic Arena Bot Drafting

0 implied HN points • 18 Jun 19
  1. Humans are better than bots at drafting due to unpredictability and variation.
  2. Bots need to appear unpredictable and have a complex decision-making process.
  3. Draft bots should focus on mimicking human behavior while also optimizing deck quality.

Press Your Luck

0 implied HN points • 15 Jun 19
  1. Game shows need a unique and consistent design to succeed.
  2. Returning champions can add excitement and continuity to game shows.
  3. Bonus games should be engaging and strategic, not purely random.

Some Ways Coordination is Hard

0 implied HN points • 13 Jun 19
  1. Coordination can be challenging due to the risks involved in choosing between different options
  2. Building trust, common knowledge, and clear communication are key in successful coordination
  3. Solving coordination problems can be expensive, difficult, and require effort to establish common goals

More Notes on Simple Rules

0 implied HN points • 21 May 19
  1. Low trust can undermine the effectiveness of simple rules and rule of law.
  2. Teaching the importance of following simple rules and maintaining trust is crucial.
  3. Discretionary systems often prevail due to the preference of powerful individuals.

Reflections on the Mythic Invitational

0 implied HN points • 17 Apr 19
  1. Minimize dead air and repetition by showing more Magic gameplay.
  2. Ensure all games are available for viewing on the website to avoid spoilers and provide more content.
  3. Maintain the commentators' knowledge of the game and players, focus on deep stories and strategies.

On The London Mulligan

0 implied HN points • 05 Mar 19
  1. Mulligans are less harsh with the London Mulligan rule, leading to more playable opening hands.
  2. The London Mulligan increases skill-testing decisions and agency, especially during the mulligan phase.
  3. Decks may become more reliant on key cards, encouraging risky mulligans and potentially reducing the variety of playstyles in the game.

Disadvantages of Card Rebalancing

0 implied HN points • 06 Jan 19
  1. Players may struggle with constantly changing card abilities and strategic landscapes in games.
  2. Frequent card rebalancing can lead to destruction of game history and memories.
  3. Games that rebalance cards may face the risk of overbalancing, making decks scripted and reducing card variety.

Card Rebalancing, Card Oversupply and Economic Considerations in Digital Card Games

0 implied HN points • 31 Dec 18
  1. Frequent card rebalancing in games can impact the value and collectibility of cards.
  2. Having a marketplace model with full refunds for changed cards can help mitigate player frustration with rebalancing.
  3. Oversupply of cards in a game can lead to decreased card value and affect the game's economy.

Card Collection and Ownership

0 implied HN points • 27 Dec 18
  1. Ownership of physical cards in games like Magic: The Gathering means having the physical card to play, but there are concerns like cards becoming illegal or losing value due to reprints.
  2. Digital card ownership varies, with games like Artifact allowing trading while games like Hearthstone restrict ownership to accounts only.
  3. Different pricing models in games, from freemium to fixed fees to marketplaces, offer varying levels of ownership and collectibility.

Review: Slay the Spire

0 implied HN points • 09 Dec 18
  1. Slay the Spire is a fantastic single-player roguelike deckbuilding game with challenging gameplay.
  2. The game's innovation of enemy intents adds strategic depth and allows players to plan ahead.
  3. Slay the Spire excels in simplicity, offering players meaningful choices with each turn and constant progression.

Additional arguments for NIMBY

0 implied HN points • 11 Oct 18
  1. People moving to San Francisco might be bad for all types of residents - newcomers, existing tech workers, the rest of the world, and even other San Francisco residents.
  2. Different scenarios of housing prices - going up, going down, or staying the same - can all have negative impacts on residents and the community.
  3. The capacity of San Francisco is limited in terms of infrastructure and public resources, so adding more people could strain existing systems and make things worse for everyone.

Apply for Emergent Ventures

0 implied HN points • 13 Sep 18
  1. Jeff Bezos donated two billion dollars to help those in need and received criticism for not giving away more faster.
  2. Tyler Cowen's Emergent Ventures is a project that encourages high upside proposals with less bureaucratic barriers.
  3. Emergent Ventures values the judgment of a smart individual, encourages short proposal submissions, and leads to unique collaborations.

The Third Circle

0 implied HN points • 21 May 18
  1. The Third Circle event included exercises like staring into each other's eyes and sharing personal feelings.
  2. Facilitators can lead group discussions by encouraging participants to give unfiltered thoughts and assumptions.
  3. It's significant to question different explanations provided in discussions and understand that not all may be true.

Inefficient Doesn't Mean Indifferent

0 implied HN points • 29 Apr 18
  1. Just because someone is inefficient in achieving a goal doesn't mean they don't care about it.
  2. Assuming people don't value something because they aren't efficient in obtaining it overlooks many factors and assumptions.
  3. People have various reasons for not choosing the most efficient option, and it doesn't mean they don't care about the outcomes.

Book Review: The Elephant in the Brain

0 implied HN points • 31 Dec 17
  1. In order to deceive others better, we often deceive ourselves.
  2. Many societal institutions are based on signaling, status, and alliances rather than their stated purposes.
  3. Understanding the hidden motives behind human behaviors can help predict and influence societal dynamics.

You Have the Right to Think

0 implied HN points • 27 Nov 17
  1. You have the right to think for yourself, even if it goes against popular opinion or expert advice.
  2. You have the right to update your beliefs based on your observations and analysis.
  3. You have the right to disagree and share your views, without needing a 'disagreement license.'

Against Facebook: The Stalking

0 implied HN points • 16 Sep 17
  1. Facebook can be creepy and intrusive with notifications and friend suggestions.
  2. Smartphones and social media may have negative impacts on young people's lives.
  3. Deleting social media apps can lead to immediate happiness.

Seattle Minimum Wage Study (Part 3): Tell Me Why I'm Wrong, Please!

0 implied HN points • 17 Aug 17
  1. There was a study on the impact of raising the Seattle minimum wage on low-wage workers.
  2. The analysis found a fundamental error that when adjusted, suggested that raising the minimum wage may have actually benefited low wage workers.
  3. Despite lack of feedback pointing out errors, the author requests for clarification on any potential mistakes.

Choices Are Really Bad

0 implied HN points • 12 Aug 17
  1. Choices can drain your willpower and cause decision fatigue.
  2. There is always a risk of choosing incorrectly, especially when distracted or under pressure.
  3. Too many choices can lead to analysis paralysis and hinder cooperation.

On the Seattle Minimum Wage Study (part 1)

0 implied HN points • 09 Jul 17
  1. Seattle's minimum wage increase has impacted low-wage employment, potentially costing more in hours than gained in pay.
  2. Analysis shows single-site employers might cut more jobs and hours than multi-site employers after the minimum wage increase.
  3. The study scrutinizes details like methodology, data sources, and raw data to understand the significant effects of the minimum wage raise on employment and wages.

Persona 5: Spoiler-Free Review

0 implied HN points • 13 Jun 17
  1. Playing a Persona game involves time management and building relationships while also engaging in RPG-style combat.
  2. Persona 5 improves on past games with updated features like easier fast travel, more meaningful confidants, and improved persona fusion mechanics.
  3. Persona 3 is seen as the most significant and impactful game in the series, but Persona 5 offers a more modern and polished gameplay experience.

Escalator Action

0 implied HN points • 12 Apr 17
  1. Experts suggest standing, not walking, on escalators for faster throughput
  2. Behavior on escalators can vary based on individual preferences, norms, and situational demands
  3. Consideration needed for balancing efficiency, throughput, and individual choice on escalators

If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice.

0 implied HN points • 24 Mar 17
  1. If you don't make a decision, you're still making a choice.
  2. There are many different types of decision theory, like Acausal, Causal, Evidential, Functional decision theory and more.
  3. There's even a Valueless Decision Theory that jokes about everything being meaningless, promoting a fast food chain.

On Automoderation

0 implied HN points • 19 Mar 17
  1. Automoderation emphasizes equality in discussion to allow all participants a fair chance to speak.
  2. Wait culture is seen as beneficial for collaborative truth-seeking, allowing individuals to gather their thoughts.
  3. Automoderation has advantages like prioritizing Meta Points and Clarifying Questions, but may struggle in large groups.

Restaurant Guide 2: Pizza

0 implied HN points • 17 Mar 17
  1. Pizza has distinct sub-genres, like New York, Italian, and more, each with specific characteristics to look out for while judging the quality.
  2. Pizza should be consumed in a timely manner to fully enjoy its flavors and texture, with different styles having different optimal consumption methods.
  3. Beware of 'Not Pizza' items that claim to be pizza but do not meet the standards, like certain fast-food chains or convenience products.

Things that want to be posts

0 implied HN points • 09 Feb 17
  1. Real conversations are better than fake ones, focus on sharing thought process and reasoning.
  2. Start writing even if unsure, ideas develop as you write.
  3. List of blogging ideas to motivate and inspire writing about various topics.

Wizards Implements Ochlocracy

0 implied HN points • 02 Jul 15
  1. A player was banned from Magic: The Gathering events for a crime he committed a decade ago.
  2. The community is upset with Wizards of the Coast's response to Twitter outrage.
  3. The article discusses the dangers of online mob behavior and the importance of standing up against it.

Two Words That Offer Final Ultimate Proof That Medical System Is Evil

0 implied HN points • 21 May 15
  1. The medical system is criticized for offering music therapy without consent to weak patients.
  2. The text questions the appropriateness of live folk music for patients who are about to die.
  3. The post suggests that patients in critical conditions should not be subjected to additional discomfort or distress.

The Twelve Virtues of Rationality

0 implied HN points • 17 May 15
  1. Brainstorming art ideas can lead to classic motifs like books, arguing, and visual tools for empiricism.
  2. One becomes a painter by painting and should not fear wasting paint; the value of experimentation is greater than avoiding waste.
  3. Critically analyze and simplify virtues for effectiveness, organizing them around core principles and combining related virtues for impact.

Spoiler-Free Review: Monster Train

0 implied HN points • 02 Jun 20
  1. Consider playing Monster Train if you enjoy the deckbuilding roguelike genre
  2. In Monster Train, emphasize a theme and make strategic decisions that can be crucial to success
  3. The game incorporates elements from both DreamQuest and Slay the Spire, offering unique mechanics and challenges