The hottest Consumer spending Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

The Boomcession: Why Americans Hate What Looks Like an Economic Boom

BIG by Matt Stoller • 49161 implied HN points • 31 Jan 26
💰 Finance Consumer spending
  1. Aggregate statistics like GDP and headline consumer spending can show a booming economy even when most people feel worse off, because growth is often concentrated in corporate profits and high-end sectors. This mismatch means the economy can look healthy on charts while ordinary households experience recessionary conditions.
  2. A growing share of measured consumer spending is non-discretionary or imputed (for example, bank 'fees' baked into low deposit rates, housing, and health care), so higher spending often reflects higher costs rather than more or better consumption. That creates spending inequality where poorer people’s dollars buy less than wealthier people’s dollars.
  3. Market power and monopoly pricing are driving inflation and redistributing gains away from working people—firms exploit weak competition (like banks not competing on deposit rates) and consolidation raises prices for vulnerable areas. Measuring welfare properly requires subgroup-specific metrics and accounting for price discrimination and monopoly-driven cost increases.

Pretty Stable

The Transcript • 59 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
💰 Finance Consumer spending
  1. The US economy is doing well with steady consumer spending and healthy household finances. People are still buying, even if the growth rate is slower than last year.
  2. There is a strong demand for jobs, especially for those with college degrees. Many companies are looking to hire, but the unemployment rate for skilled positions is still very low.
  3. The upcoming presidential election is creating some uncertainty in the markets. Once it's over, people expect a better outlook for economic policies.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 19 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💰 Finance Consumer spending
  1. The economy seems stable and strong, with good consumer spending and low delinquency rates. People are feeling positive about their finances.
  2. Optimism in businesses is growing, especially with recent changes in interest rates. However, for more demand, companies want more rate cuts and easier lending conditions.
  3. The upcoming presidential election is important for the economy. The new president will influence economic policies that could affect the markets for years to come.

US Homeowners Hit New All-Time High Of $35 Trillion In Home Equity

The Pomp Letter • 339 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
💰 Finance Consumer spending
  1. US homeowners now have a record $35 trillion in home equity, which shows how much their homes are worth compared to what they owe on mortgages.
  2. The increase in home equity is mainly due to a housing boom during the pandemic, where demand surged while mortgage rates were low, pushing home prices higher.
  3. This huge amount of equity might lead homeowners to use home equity loans and second mortgages instead of selling their homes, especially since many have low mortgage rates.

Top Links 941 Resilient US consumption & Chinese anti-fatigue monitoring systems. How much do Russian missiles really cost? Warhammer as Thatcherite satire.

Chartbook • 329 implied HN points • 04 Dec 25
💰 Finance Consumer spending
  1. Even though US consumers are feeling down, they are still spending money. This shows a strong desire to continue buying even in tough times.
  2. China is using monitoring systems to prevent fatigue, which might help improve productivity. This technology is aimed at keeping workers focused and efficient.
  3. The cost of Russian missiles is being questioned, which could influence how countries view military spending and strategy.
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Is Aging Behind Japan’s Drop in Consumer Spending?

Japan Economy Watch • 339 implied HN points • 01 Dec 23
💰 Finance Consumer spending
  1. Aging is not the main reason for Japan's declining consumption, which is partly due to a decrease in the number of people and stagnant or falling income.
  2. Spending per capita dropped 1.3% from 2012 to 2022 despite an increase in GDP, indicating a complex mix of factors contributing to the decline.
  3. Economies of scale play a significant role in the spending habits of seniors, who end up spending about 7% more per person compared to younger households.

Did Wages Really Rise The Fastest In 28 Years?

Japan Economy Watch • 439 implied HN points • 09 Jul 23
💰 Finance Consumer spending
  1. Wages per hour, not per month, need to be examined to truly understand wage growth
  2. The data showing nominal wages growth doesn't necessarily reflect a true increase in pay, as it may be influenced by other factors like scheduled hours of work
  3. The focus on nominal wages by the Bank of Japan is aimed at achieving a specific inflation target, which may not fully account for the real impact on consumers

June Wages and Consumer Spending Disappoint Again

Japan Economy Watch • 159 implied HN points • 10 Aug 23
💰 Finance Consumer spending
  1. Wages in Japan were lower than expected in June, leading to a decrease in real consumer spending. This could impact interest rates and the value of the yen.
  2. Increasing base pay is crucial for long-term financial stability for workers, compared to relying on overtime or bonuses.
  3. The Bank of Japan's policy decisions are influenced by data on wages and inflation, impacting interest rates and the value of the yen.

Is the US economy heading for a soft landing? Part 1/2

Global Markets Investor • 59 implied HN points • 17 Dec 23
💰 Finance Consumer spending
  1. Soft landing in the US economy refers to a scenario where interest rates increase without causing a recession. Achieving a soft landing is challenging due to the unpredictable effects of rising rates.
  2. Current economic indicators suggest a potential slowdown, with data like US bank lending growth declining and bankruptcy filings increasing. These factors could lead to significant economic problems if extended.
  3. Consumer spending in the US may face limitations, as issues like high credit card debt and rising delinquencies pose risks. The Federal Reserve's actions regarding interest rates could impact future economic outcomes.

Credit Card Data Spells Trouble

The Sunday Morning Post • 78 implied HN points • 04 Jun 23
💰 Finance Consumer spending
  1. Inflation is causing consumers to shift spending towards necessary goods and services like food and healthcare.
  2. Americans are turning to credit cards to bridge the gap between rising prices and stagnant wages.
  3. High collective credit card debt and increasing delinquency rates could pose a significant threat to the overall economy.

"A Year of Moderation" Begins for the Construction Sector

The Sunday Morning Post • 58 implied HN points • 21 May 23
💼 Business Consumer spending
  1. Home Depot reported a 4.2% decline in sales for Q1 2023, marking the start of a period of moderation in the construction sector.
  2. Lower home construction numbers are impacting sales of materials like lumber and affecting big-ticket item purchases.
  3. Factors like higher interest rates, inflation, and economic uncertainty are contributing to the slowdown in the construction market.

Let’s Dance

The Transcript • 79 implied HN points • 13 Feb 23
💰 Finance Consumer spending
  1. Signs of deflation in the economy are emerging.
  2. Companies are slowing down price increases and labor markets are loosening.
  3. Consumer spending remains strong with notable growth in January.

🤑 Stop Calling it 'The Middle Class'

UnfairNation by Ehsan Zaffar • 10 implied HN points • 12 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Consumer spending
  1. The term 'middle class' is misleading because it suggests a larger and powerful group, but they actually represent a shrinking portion of the population.
  2. The wealth gap is widening, with the top 5% controlling a huge amount of wealth and spending, leaving the middle class financially strained.
  3. High costs of living, influenced by tariffs and other factors, make it harder for the middle class to participate in democracy and compete with wealthy donors.

The Economic Fallout of Student Loan Forbearance Ending

Apricitas Economics • 50 implied HN points • 04 Dec 23
💰 Finance Consumer spending
  1. Restarting student loan payments has led to higher delinquencies and lower consumer spending, despite some relief measures being in place.
  2. The end of student loan forbearance has caused a noticeable but modest impact on the economy as households resume making payments.
  3. Policy changes and billions in student debt forgiveness have eased the burden on borrowers, resulting in a decrease in total outstanding student loan debt.

How long? How variable?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
💰 Finance Consumer spending
  1. The effects of interest rate hikes from the Fed can take a long time to show in the economy, often around 40 months. This means changes don’t happen immediately after decisions are made.
  2. Different types of goods react to rate hikes differently. For example, inflation for durable goods can keep rising right after a hike, while nondurable goods start to decrease right away.
  3. Today’s economy is more service-oriented than it was decades ago, making it harder to control inflation. This shift means that the impact of monetary policy is felt later and inflation management becomes more complex.

Investing Update: What Recession? 

Spilled Coffee • 0 implied HN points • 18 Feb 23
💰 Finance Consumer spending
  1. Investor sentiment is shifting towards a bull market after a long streak of bearish sentiment.
  2. Inflation has peaked but certain sectors like services, particularly shelter costs, are still stubborn.
  3. Consumer spending is on the rise, reducing the likelihood of a recession, with odds dropping significantly.