The hottest Consumer spending Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

Pretty Stable

The Transcript • 59 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economy Consumer spending Monetary Policy Deficits Inflation
  1. The US economy is doing well with steady consumer spending and healthy household finances. People are still buying, even if the growth rate is slower than last year.
  2. There is a strong demand for jobs, especially for those with college degrees. Many companies are looking to hire, but the unemployment rate for skilled positions is still very low.
  3. The upcoming presidential election is creating some uncertainty in the markets. Once it's over, people expect a better outlook for economic policies.

The Transcript Editor's Commentary

The Transcript • 19 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economics Investment Monetary Policy Consumer spending Elections
  1. The economy seems stable and strong, with good consumer spending and low delinquency rates. People are feeling positive about their finances.
  2. Optimism in businesses is growing, especially with recent changes in interest rates. However, for more demand, companies want more rate cuts and easier lending conditions.
  3. The upcoming presidential election is important for the economy. The new president will influence economic policies that could affect the markets for years to come.

US Homeowners Hit New All-Time High Of $35 Trillion In Home Equity

The Pomp Letter • 339 implied HN points • 09 Oct 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Impact Consumer spending
  1. US homeowners now have a record $35 trillion in home equity, which shows how much their homes are worth compared to what they owe on mortgages.
  2. The increase in home equity is mainly due to a housing boom during the pandemic, where demand surged while mortgage rates were low, pushing home prices higher.
  3. This huge amount of equity might lead homeowners to use home equity loans and second mortgages instead of selling their homes, especially since many have low mortgage rates.

Lights on the runway for the soft landing

Stay-At-Home Macro (SAHM) • 1356 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economy Inflation Labor Market Consumer spending Interest Rates
  1. The labor market is strong, American consumers are spending well, and most families are financially better off.
  2. Inflation is heading towards 2%, with businesses adjusting prices and the Fed needing to act accordingly.
  3. Forecasts suggest a recession may be avoided, softening the pessimistic rhetoric and improving consumer sentiment.

Is Aging Behind Japan’s Drop in Consumer Spending?

Japan Economy Watch • 339 implied HN points • 01 Dec 23
💰 Finance Consumer spending Aging Income Savings Healthcare
  1. Aging is not the main reason for Japan's declining consumption, which is partly due to a decrease in the number of people and stagnant or falling income.
  2. Spending per capita dropped 1.3% from 2012 to 2022 despite an increase in GDP, indicating a complex mix of factors contributing to the decline.
  3. Economies of scale play a significant role in the spending habits of seniors, who end up spending about 7% more per person compared to younger households.
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Did Wages Really Rise The Fastest In 28 Years?

Japan Economy Watch • 439 implied HN points • 09 Jul 23
💰 Finance Wages Inflation Economic Theory Consumer spending
  1. Wages per hour, not per month, need to be examined to truly understand wage growth
  2. The data showing nominal wages growth doesn't necessarily reflect a true increase in pay, as it may be influenced by other factors like scheduled hours of work
  3. The focus on nominal wages by the Bank of Japan is aimed at achieving a specific inflation target, which may not fully account for the real impact on consumers

The McDonald's theory of why everyone thinks the economy sucks

Silver Bulletin • 438 implied HN points • 27 Nov 23
💰 Finance Economy Consumer spending Inflation Marketing Delivery Services
  1. Americans are spending more money overall, not just paying higher prices due to inflation.
  2. Fast food chains are using strategies like price increases, marketing, and delivery to make customers spend more.
  3. Consumer spending is increasing faster than inflation, impacting people's perceptions about the economy.

June Wages and Consumer Spending Disappoint Again

Japan Economy Watch • 159 implied HN points • 10 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy Monetary Policy Wages Consumer spending Inflation
  1. Wages in Japan were lower than expected in June, leading to a decrease in real consumer spending. This could impact interest rates and the value of the yen.
  2. Increasing base pay is crucial for long-term financial stability for workers, compared to relying on overtime or bonuses.
  3. The Bank of Japan's policy decisions are influenced by data on wages and inflation, impacting interest rates and the value of the yen.

Is the US economy heading for a soft landing? Part 1/2

Global Markets Investor • 59 implied HN points • 17 Dec 23
💰 Finance Economic Forecasting Banking Sector Consumer spending Interest Rates
  1. Soft landing in the US economy refers to a scenario where interest rates increase without causing a recession. Achieving a soft landing is challenging due to the unpredictable effects of rising rates.
  2. Current economic indicators suggest a potential slowdown, with data like US bank lending growth declining and bankruptcy filings increasing. These factors could lead to significant economic problems if extended.
  3. Consumer spending in the US may face limitations, as issues like high credit card debt and rising delinquencies pose risks. The Federal Reserve's actions regarding interest rates could impact future economic outcomes.

"A Year of Moderation" Begins for the Construction Sector

The Sunday Morning Post • 58 implied HN points • 21 May 23
💼 Business Construction Economy Inflation Consumer spending
  1. Home Depot reported a 4.2% decline in sales for Q1 2023, marking the start of a period of moderation in the construction sector.
  2. Lower home construction numbers are impacting sales of materials like lumber and affecting big-ticket item purchases.
  3. Factors like higher interest rates, inflation, and economic uncertainty are contributing to the slowdown in the construction market.

The Economic Fallout of Student Loan Forbearance Ending

Apricitas Economics • 50 implied HN points • 04 Dec 23
💰 Finance Debt Consumer spending Economic Impact Policy Changes
  1. Restarting student loan payments has led to higher delinquencies and lower consumer spending, despite some relief measures being in place.
  2. The end of student loan forbearance has caused a noticeable but modest impact on the economy as households resume making payments.
  3. Policy changes and billions in student debt forgiveness have eased the burden on borrowers, resulting in a decrease in total outstanding student loan debt.

How long? How variable?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Inflation Economic Growth Interest Rates Consumer spending
  1. The effects of interest rate hikes from the Fed can take a long time to show in the economy, often around 40 months. This means changes don’t happen immediately after decisions are made.
  2. Different types of goods react to rate hikes differently. For example, inflation for durable goods can keep rising right after a hike, while nondurable goods start to decrease right away.
  3. Today’s economy is more service-oriented than it was decades ago, making it harder to control inflation. This shift means that the impact of monetary policy is felt later and inflation management becomes more complex.