The hottest Wages Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

The Houthis, A Disappointing Wage Report, and the Tumbling Yen

Japan Economy Watch • 1098 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
💰 Finance Markets Interest Rates Inflation Economy Wages
  1. The yen has weakened due to external factors like the Houthi attack, impacting Japanese economy and inflation, and market anticipation of interest rate changes. The disappointing wage report for November dampened expectations for a rise in interest rates by the Bank of Japan, leading to a weaker yen.
  2. An accurate model for predicting the yen's strength has a standard error of about 3.4 yen. A sizeable discrepancy between the model's forecast and the actual yen value could either indicate a correction back to expected levels or suggest a long-term trend change.
  3. The growth in nominal wages in Japan has consistently fallen short of the 3% goal needed for sustained inflation. This has influenced market expectations regarding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decisions and consequently impacted the yen's valuation.

Europe pays more for banned Russian oil, resold by India - as EU wages fall

Geopolitical Economy Report • 538 implied HN points • 05 May 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Sanctions Energy Inflation Wages
  1. Europe is indirectly purchasing Russian oil through India at higher prices despite sanctions, contributing to de-dollarization and falling wages.
  2. Russian oil exports to Asia, particularly China and India, have increased significantly due to Western sanctions, shifting away from Europe.
  3. Real wages in the EU have fallen by 6.5% from 2020 to 2022 due to rising energy costs and a severe cost-of-living crisis, impacting poorer households the most.

Why Did The BOJ Move Despite Conflicting Evidence on Wages and Prices?

Japan Economy Watch • 179 implied HN points • 21 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economy Banking Inflation Monetary Policy Wages
  1. The Bank of Japan's decision to make monetary policy changes despite unclear wage and price trends was questioned.
  2. There was no immediate financial market pressure on the BOJ to act, as rates were stable and not pushing past set levels.
  3. Conflicting data on wage trends created uncertainty, with various databases showing contradictory evidence, making predictions difficult.
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Japan’s Yo-Yo GDP

Japan Economy Watch • 399 implied HN points • 19 Nov 23
💼 Business Economy Stock Market Wages GDP
  1. Japan's GDP has not seen growth in five years, raising concerns about the country's economic health.
  2. Majority of the recent GDP growth in Japan is attributed to increased government spending.
  3. Real wages in Japan have been declining, impacting employee compensation and consumption, which further influences Bank of Japan policy and the value of the yen.

Did Wages Really Rise The Fastest In 28 Years?

Japan Economy Watch • 439 implied HN points • 09 Jul 23
💰 Finance Wages Inflation Economic Theory Consumer spending
  1. Wages per hour, not per month, need to be examined to truly understand wage growth
  2. The data showing nominal wages growth doesn't necessarily reflect a true increase in pay, as it may be influenced by other factors like scheduled hours of work
  3. The focus on nominal wages by the Bank of Japan is aimed at achieving a specific inflation target, which may not fully account for the real impact on consumers

Wage Hikes in April Fail Their First Test

Japan Economy Watch • 299 implied HN points • 07 Jun 23
💰 Finance Economy Monetary Policy Wages Inflation Consumption
  1. Wage hikes in April in Japan fell short of expectations, rising only by 1% instead of the predicted 2%, indicating a potential setback for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
  2. Real wages in Japan have been dropping for years, not just a temporary post-Covid issue, leading to reduced consumer spending and overall economic impact.
  3. The slow wage growth in Japan has implications on inflation rates, with the Bank of Japan waiting for a 3% nominal wage hike to consider monetary policy changes.

Reading the Mind of BOJ Chief Ueda

Japan Economy Watch • 279 implied HN points • 22 May 23
💰 Finance Economy Inflation Monetary Policy Wages GDP
  1. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is determined to maintain current policies and resist pressure to raise interest rates, emphasizing the importance of waiting for sustained 2% inflation before making any changes.
  2. Japan's inflation is mainly cost-push due to external factors like energy and food prices influenced by global events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with wage hikes seen as essential for achieving the desired price and wage growth balance.
  3. A key aspect for Japan's economic recovery and future inflation rate is the slow GDP growth, indicating that the economy is operating below capacity, which poses challenges for potential consumer inflation.

June Wages and Consumer Spending Disappoint Again

Japan Economy Watch • 159 implied HN points • 10 Aug 23
💰 Finance Economy Monetary Policy Wages Consumer spending Inflation
  1. Wages in Japan were lower than expected in June, leading to a decrease in real consumer spending. This could impact interest rates and the value of the yen.
  2. Increasing base pay is crucial for long-term financial stability for workers, compared to relying on overtime or bonuses.
  3. The Bank of Japan's policy decisions are influenced by data on wages and inflation, impacting interest rates and the value of the yen.

US Federal Reserve says its goal is 'to get wages down'

Geopolitical Economy Report • 279 implied HN points • 24 May 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation Labor Government Policy Wages Monopolies
  1. The US Federal Reserve chairman aims to bring down wages as a solution to high inflation, believing that workers have too much power in the labor market.
  2. Inflation is outpacing US wages, with the federal minimum wage remaining at $7.25 since 2009, showing that real wages have not kept up with rising prices.
  3. Economist Michael Hudson argues that inflation is primarily driven by corporate monopolies increasing prices, not by rising wages as claimed by the Federal Reserve.

Why Wages Slowed More In Japan Than Elsewhere

Japan Economy Watch • 159 implied HN points • 13 Dec 21
💰 Finance Wages Economic Theory Labor Market Income Wealth
  1. Wages in Japan have not just slowed down but actually fallen, unlike in other rich countries where wages have been suppressed.
  2. The widespread slump in wage growth goes against economic theory, signaling a shift in how consumer demand and wages have traditionally grown alongside output.
  3. One main reason for Japan's wage decline is the rise of poorly paid non-regular workers, showcasing the impact of political factors on wage disparities.

Manufacturing Jobs Might Come Back: Safer and Fair? Not Clear

Gad’s Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
💼 Business Manufacturing Jobs Wages Productivity Safety
  1. Manufacturing jobs in the US are seeing an increase in employment due to domestic production efforts and legislation like the Chips Act.
  2. Wage fairness and safety remain concerns in the manufacturing industry, despite some improvements over time.
  3. Enhancing productivity and improving worker conditions must go hand in hand for sustainable progress in the manufacturing sector.

math in the middle, menu at the end

let them eat cake • 159 implied HN points • 26 Aug 19
🍲 Food & Drink Restaurant Industry Food Systems Wages Service Industry Menu
  1. Calculations for restaurant staff wages need to consider various factors like turnover and check averages to ensure fair payment.
  2. The idea of a sustainable wage for restaurant workers raises questions about pay disparities within the industry and the need for all service workers to receive fair compensation.
  3. The existence of table service in restaurants is supported by the tip credit system, with some states eliminating this system to ensure equal wages for all staff.

Is There a Simpson's Paradox Lurking In the Wage Growth Data?

Gideon's Substack • 1 HN point • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economy Jobs Wages Productivity
  1. Today was a good day for economic news, boosting Biden's political fortunes and allowing the Fed to go slow with rate cuts.
  2. Changes in the educational composition of the workforce may have caused a surge in productivity and influenced wage growth data.
  3. It's important to look at the data from different angles to understand discrepancies and reveal important complexities.

Robots vs. Workers: A New Paper on the Results

Big Fiscal • 0 implied HN points • 21 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Automation Robotics Employment Wages Economic Impact
  1. The introduction of robots has a small negative effect on jobs and wages, but it's not as bad as many fear. Overall, the impact seems to be minor.
  2. There's a bias in research that often leans toward negative effects of robots on wages. This shows the need for more balanced studies in this area.
  3. The effects of robots vary based on the economy, industry, and job skills. Developed countries might benefit more from robots compared to emerging ones, especially in some sectors like manufacturing.