The hottest Foreign Policy Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top World Politics Topics

Is the Iran War Winding Down—or Ramping Up? Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 472 implied HN points • 10 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The war with Iran isn’t clearly ending: calming words briefly soothed markets, but tougher threats and vows to keep fighting make a quick finish unlikely.
  2. Calling for unconditional surrender is unrealistic and risky; Iran has agency and such demands are likely to prolong the conflict and raise the stakes.
  3. Iran’s new leader faces a precarious, paranoid situation where external pressure and internal instability make survival and effective rule very uncertain.

Democrats Aren't Resisting Trump's Iran War Because They Secretly Support It

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2277 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The U.S. seems headed toward military action against Iran, and top Democratic leaders have been largely quiet or only mildly critical.
  2. Democrats are accused of tacitly supporting aggressive foreign policy while letting Trump play the ‘bad cop,’ offering performative objections but avoiding real resistance.
  3. Both parties are portrayed as two wings of the same pro‑war establishment — a polite wing and a rude wing — which blocks genuine pro‑peace politics.

Top Links 1032 Hormuz to Asia. Cuba goes solar. Gramsci on sex and production & Brecht on shooting people like me.

Chartbook • 457 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. U.S. LNG exports have created a new decade in global gas trade, reshaping energy flows and geopolitical links from the Gulf (Hormuz) to Asian markets.
  2. Cuba is embracing solar power, marking a notable shift toward renewable energy and greater island energy resilience.
  3. There is renewed engagement with thinkers like Gramsci and Brecht, using their ideas about sex, production, and violence to rethink political and cultural conflicts.

I Think I Can Explain Trump's Theory of Trade

Bet On It • 322 implied HN points • 10 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. He thinks foreigners buying U.S. goods and assets will send piles of dollars into the U.S., which he expects will boost sales and jobs, and he treats foreign investment as reducing the trade deficit.
  2. This is basically old-fashioned ‘beggar-thy-neighbor’ Keynesian thinking — using trade to steal demand from other countries — but it’s a crude, inflationary, and diplomatically costly way to boost demand compared with monetary policy, especially near full employment.
  3. Economists disagree: the U.S. doesn’t need to ‘earn back’ dollars because it issues the global currency, so trade deficits and foreign investment don’t imply the problem he imagines, and trade policy is a poor tool for macro stabilization.

Trump: Tucker Carlson Is Not ‘America First’

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 732 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Trump publicly disavowed Tucker Carlson, saying Carlson is not MAGA, not 'America First,' and 'not smart enough' to understand that.
  2. Their relationship broke down as tensions over the Iran war grew, making Carlson a political casualty of the dispute.
  3. The split was aired publicly, signaling a rift between Trump and a prominent populist media figure and reshaping who speaks for the MAGA movement.
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Thinking about the Long Haul

John’s Substack • 7 implied HN points • 24 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. A two-hour interview with a former Indonesian trade minister explored a wide range of current global conflicts and where they might lead.
  2. This was the third long conversation between them and featured a friendly, engaged back-and-forth.
  3. The overall assessment was bleak, offering a dark outlook on the direction of world affairs in the years ahead.

The War Is Iranians’ Best Chance at Peace

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1136 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Some peace advocates ignore how Iran’s own government represses and hurts its people, treating calm as acceptable even when citizens suffer daily.
  2. Many Iranians reject that hollow peace because the regime prizes martyrdom rhetoric and funnels scarce resources to proxies instead of caring for its people.
  3. Iranians don’t want war, but many see external pressure or conflict as the most likely way to end the regime and achieve a real, lasting peace.

Noahpinion's 2025 Year in Review

Noahpinion • 21941 implied HN points • 27 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Tariff and authoritarian moves have overturned decades of U.S. trade policy, creating huge uncertainty that’s hurting manufacturing, pushing up prices in places, and straining institutions and alliances.
  2. An enormous AI-driven data-center boom is propping up the economy now but risks a financial bust if the sector can’t pay back its investments, and AI’s real effects on jobs are still unclear.
  3. China is clearly ascending as the dominant manufacturing and electric-technology power, while the U.S. is weakened by political polarization, a crisis of national identity, and the collapse of old progressive orthodoxies.

‘Blind Into Caracas.’

Breaking the News • 8721 implied HN points • 03 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The president looked physically and mentally unsteady at the press conference, stumbling through prepared remarks and making alarming off-script statements that contradicted his aides.
  2. Senior officials tried to call the Venezuela operation a routine law-enforcement action while also saying the U.S. would run and occupy the country and refusing to brief Congress, which amounts to secrecy and misinformation from the team.
  3. The team celebrated a tactical victory without any clear plan for the day-after governance, regional fallout, or long-term costs, and they openly talked about taking Venezuelan oil, repeating the mistakes of past interventions.

Trump’s Endgame

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 848 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The conflict will likely end when Trump personally convinces Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire, with Trump’s phone call framed as the decisive moment.
  2. U.S. and Israeli forces are operating more closely than ever as a tightly integrated unit, but the underlying balance of power hasn’t really changed since the June 2025 joint operation against Iran ended abruptly.
  3. Any U.S. deal with Iran should demand nuclear disarmament, elimination of its missiles, and an end to proxy financing up front.

Going to War, Again, for Israel

The Chris Hedges Report • 920 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The United States is being pulled into a war that mainly serves Israeli goals, not American interests, risking American lives and flouting international norms.
  2. Israel and its lobby have huge influence over U.S. politics, using money, trips, and pressure to secure massive military aid and political support.
  3. The conflict will be costly and prolonged, causing many deaths, spiking oil prices, regional chaos and likely long-term failure like past regime-change wars.

Friday Funnies: Trump, You Magnificent Bastard!

Who is Robert Malone • 44 implied HN points • 20 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The post highlights a witty exchange by President Trump and treats it as a funny, crowd-pleasing moment that celebrates surprise and boldness.
  2. It mocks government fear-mongering about backyard eggs and raw milk, arguing that’s absurd when many public restrooms are dirtier and more hazardous.
  3. It shifts to lighter, personal notes about the spring equinox and farm life, celebrating longer days, renewal, and the pleasure of getting outside.

Anthropic v DoW

ChinaTalk • 741 implied HN points • 27 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Anthropic is in a tense standoff with the Department of Defense over how its Claude AI can be used, with the company saying the models aren’t reliable for fully autonomous lethal systems or domestic surveillance while the Pentagon pressures for access and even threatens DPA or supply-chain labels.
  2. There’s worry that legal and oversight guardrails inside defense and intelligence are weakening — from messy FISA/NSA practices to an underpowered Office of General Counsel — which both raises privacy risks and could push companies away or force heavy-handed government control.
  3. Global military strains—from Iran and risky raids in the Caribbean to a four-year war in Ukraine—are stretching forces and alliances, increasing the chance of operational mistakes, escalation, and hard choices about rearmament and who leads negotiations.

Trump Himself Is the Trump Movement's Iraq War

Gideon's Substack • 66 implied HN points • 20 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The Trump movement was less about specific policies and more about regime change in America, driven by a primitive urge to "do something" and impose top-down transformation.
  2. Many intellectuals defended Trump with policy arguments, but those were largely post-hoc rationalizations; the movement centered on Trump’s personality and emotional appeal rather than coherent ideas.
  3. Walking away from Trump requires a deeper reexamination: cults of personality and attempts to decapitate a regime are destructive, and real, lasting change comes from rebuilding politics from the ground up, not from top-down coups or wars.

Netanyahu Visits Trump for the Seventh Time Amid More Threats of a U.S. Attack on Iran

Glenn Greenwald • 3004 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Netanyahu has unusually close access to Trump and is visiting to press him for much tougher demands on Iran, including limits (like giving up ballistic missiles) and even regime-change goals that Iran is unlikely to accept.
  2. Trump has publicly threatened military force against Iran while also saying he prefers a deal to avoid war, and past patterns and coordinated leaks raise concern that negotiations can be used to disguise or prepare strikes.
  3. The central issue is whether the U.S. will base policy on its own national interests or be drawn into a costly war that primarily serves Israeli objectives, with critics arguing the U.S. should avoid fighting Israel’s fights for it.

Tempting Target

Doomberg • 8012 implied HN points • 02 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Saskatchewan sits on an enormous, flat, and predictable potash-rich evaporite formation that formed when an ancient sea repeatedly evaporated, which makes large-scale mining relatively easy and cheap.
  2. The province is the world’s dominant potash producer with vast reserves and supplies roughly a third of global potash needs, making it a major source for fertilizer and a key supplier to the U.S.
  3. Rising geopolitical assertiveness in the Western Hemisphere raises the risk that a sparsely populated, resource-rich place like Saskatchewan could become a strategic target or subject to pressure.

Matt Pottinger: Trump Could End the War Tomorrow. I Don’t Think He Will.

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 389 implied HN points • 10 Mar 26
🌐 International Foreign Policy
  1. The president said he could declare the Iran war over right now and claimed key objectives, like rolling back Iran’s weapons programs, have been met.
  2. At the same time he kept emphasizing reasons to keep fighting long enough to make results stick, suggesting an impulse to “finish the job” rather than quit early.
  3. A former deputy national security adviser thinks the president probably won’t take the offered off‑ramp and is more likely to let the conflict continue for weeks to ensure durable outcomes.

If You Want Freedom and Democracy For Iranian People and All Peoples, You Must Start By Admitting What America Is and Does

Freddie deBoer • 7054 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The United States often intervenes abroad to secure strategic and economic interests, not to install genuine democracy, and can openly prioritize access to resources like oil over self-determination.
  2. Historical interventions — from Iran’s 1953 coup to wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and recent meddling in Venezuela — usually produce authoritarianism, corruption, militias, and instability instead of freedom, so skepticism of intervention is rational.
  3. Opposing U.S. intervention does not equal supporting oppressive regimes; people can want internal change while also rejecting foreign control, and restraint in using force helps avoid repeating past harms.

Yeesh, Who Would Have Thought That Allies Actually Mattered?

Phillips’s Newsletter • 271 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Trump is speeding the U.S.’s decline by deliberately weakening core pillars like social cohesion, political institutions, and the military’s ability to think.
  2. Alliances are a central source of American global power and are essential for winning wars, so damaging the U.S.-led alliance system severely weakens the country’s position.
  3. The administration only just seemed to realize alliances matter, but after actively trying to undermine them the damage may already be hard to undo.

TGIF: Bad for Business Class

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1738 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Real-time OSINT tools let ordinary people track military movements and turn anyone into a self-styled expert, which fuels constant anxiety about imminent war.
  2. Recent aircraft movements — US E-3 Sentry radars, a KC-46 tanker escorted by F-22s, and Russian Il-76s in Iran — reflect heightened tensions around Iran and raise the possibility of military action.
  3. The newsletter blends reporting with event promotion and subscription asks, showing how independent outlets monetize coverage through ticketed events and paywalled content.

Is the Current Gulf War Taking Place?

The Ruffian • 313 implied HN points • 14 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Modern wars can be experienced and shaped as media spectacles, where television and narrative frame events more than straightforward facts on the ground.
  2. The 1991 Gulf War had clear geopolitical motives so the ‘everything is spectacle’ claim is too strong for that case, but the idea fits more closely with how recent conflicts play out in a media-saturated age.
  3. Leadership style and the 24/7 news/social feed change perception: steady, credible statesmanship makes actions feel discrete and serious, while erratic leadership and nonstop doomscrolling make military events seem continuous and surreal.

J.D. Vance’s Iran Dilemma

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 783 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The Iran war is splitting the MAGA coalition and forcing Vice President J.D. Vance to pick sides between anti-war voices like Tucker Carlson and President Trump.
  2. Vance was unusually quiet over the weekend, then said Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon rather than to launch an endless war.
  3. The MAGA coalition includes many conflicting factions — hawks, neo-isolationists, evangelicals, and online hardliners — and the Iran fight threatens the movement's unity.

If You Think Our Rulers Do Bad Things In Secret, Wait Til You See What They Do Out In The Open

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2957 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Powerful governments and wealthy elites commit massive harms openly—wars, economic sieges, resource plundering, environmental destruction, and global military dominance happen in full view of the world.
  2. Many of the worst abuses are public and systemic, driven by state policy and corporate profit, not just secret scandals behind closed doors.
  3. While private scandals matter, attention and accountability should focus first on the far greater, visible harms that shape millions of lives.

If NATO Dies, Do We Really Have to Mourn?

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 6802 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Donald Trump's moves around Greenland are being seen as a direct threat to NATO and could hasten the alliance's collapse.
  2. Since the Soviet Union fell, NATO has repeatedly expanded its mission and pushed risky policies to justify its continued existence, often at high cost.
  3. Some argue that NATO outlived its original purpose and that its demise might not be tragic, given how it became self-justifying and aggressive.

Guess they were more B-O-R-E-D of Peace

The Rubesletter by Matt Ruby (of Vooza) | Sent every Tuesday • 570 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. War with Iran would be risky and unpredictable, and trying to force regime change from the air without clear goals, congressional approval, or a postwar plan could have serious, unforeseen consequences.
  2. The president’s McDonald’s spectacle with the U.S. men’s hockey team shows crass, politicized showmanship and how pulling athletes into political theater can backfire; public apologies often don’t satisfy outrage culture and can incentivize denial.
  3. The BAFTAs incident where a person with Tourette’s shouted a racial slur raises a painful dilemma between condemning racism and being sensitive to neurodivergence and ableism, forcing a hard conversation about accountability versus compassion.

Trump Keeps His Promise to Iran—and Takes a Big Gamble

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 853 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The U.S. and Israel launched strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear sites and top leaders, with reports that the supreme leader’s compound and senior commanders were hit.
  2. The operation is a major escalation and a high‑stakes gamble that could reshape the entire Middle East.
  3. Trump openly urged Iranians to rise up and seize their government, and Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Israeli and U.S. bases in the Gulf have raised the risk of a wider conflict.

Our Rulers Are Psychopaths And They're Making Everything Awful

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 3567 implied HN points • 01 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Those in power are pursuing cruel, dangerous policies—preparing wars, enabling repression, and allowing horrific abuses to continue.
  2. The political system and its leaders have driven intense division and polarization, keeping people fighting each other instead of uniting against abuse.
  3. All this cruelty and chaos is leaving many people exhausted, anguished, and unsure how to respond.

Political Maturity Is Realizing The Commies Were Correct

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 3036 implied HN points • 05 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The most outspoken communists often diagnose capitalism, imperialism, and systemic oppression more clearly than other groups, and many of their critiques keep being proven right.
  2. Political maturity means learning, staying humble, and accepting cognitive dissonance when you realize your previous views masked widespread exploitation and injustice.
  3. Agreeing with their analysis doesn't solve how to get their vision; building a different world is untested, often suppressed, and activists themselves can be imperfect.

the iranian ink blot

bad cattitude • 252 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Iran’s ruling theocracy is deeply repressive and enforces severe human rights abuses, while also investing heavily in missiles, drones, and nuclear-capable programs that pose a real regional threat.
  2. The international order is shifting back toward hard-power great power competition as institutions like the UN lose influence, and actors such as China and Russia are bolstering rivals and shaping outcomes with military and technological support.
  3. There are no easy answers: using force to decapitate the regime can remove threats but risks chaos and backlash, while inaction risks ceding influence and strategic advantage to rivals—both options involve serious trade‑offs.

Candace Owens, Great American Basket Case

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 9714 implied HN points • 24 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. She is a forceful pundit who spreads bold, detailed conspiracy theories with strong certainty. Her style lets her shape conversations and influence parts of the Republican Party.
  2. Her stories stitch together many actors and unlikely links, turning wild ideas into persuasive narratives. That approach fills a trust vacuum and attracts people who want something to believe in.
  3. The rise of influencer-driven, high-certainty narratives weakens trust in traditional media and institutions. That makes political debate more volatile and can produce real-world consequences for parties and international affairs.

In Australia The Police Beat You Up For Opposing Genocide

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2388 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Police violently suppressed pro-Palestine protests, with videos showing force used on people who appeared to be complying or praying.
  2. New laws and bans on phrases, along with pressure from a powerful lobby, are being used to criminalize and chill pro-Palestine speech and protest.
  3. Without a national bill of rights, Australian civil liberties are weak, so protecting free speech and the right to protest is urgent.

Can Israel & the U.S. Sustain Iran's Military Power? (w/ Alastair Crooke) | The Chris Hedges Report

The Chris Hedges Report • 339 implied HN points • 07 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Iran has strong, resilient military capabilities. It has large missile stocks, uses older missiles and drones to exhaust interceptors, and has damaged expensive radar and surveillance systems while keeping hypersonic and siloed launch options for a long war.
  2. The U.S. and Israel miscalculated and overreached. Their strikes and the assassination of Iranian leaders have provoked broad regional backlash and revealed shortages in intercept capacity and contingency planning.
  3. The conflict is reshaping the region and global markets. Gulf security and the Strait of Hormuz are at risk, energy and investment flows are shifting away from Gulf hubs, and political instability is rising in Bahrain, Iraq, Israel and for Palestinians.

Trump Has Had Enough of Tucker Carlson

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1117 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Trump has privately urged Tucker Carlson to stop attacking Israel because those attacks are splitting his coalition and could hurt his chances in the midterms and the next election.
  2. Carlson has openly condemned Israel’s response to the October 7 attacks, claimed Israel has outsized influence on U.S. policy, and even suggested a nuclear-armed Iran might stabilize the region, which has alienated many pro-Israel conservatives.
  3. A recent three-hour interview with Mike Huckabee, which some hoped would be a truce, instead opened a new front and deepened the rift between Carlson and pro-Israel MAGA influencers, worrying people close to Trump.

Will Trump Call Time on the Iran War?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 268 implied HN points • 10 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Trump says the military campaign is largely complete and is running ahead of the original timeline.
  2. Israeli leaders fear he may cut the campaign short again, repeating a past pattern of limited patience.
  3. Israel wants a longer operation—roughly four to five weeks—to exhaust its list of targets because the current 11-day window is seen as too short.

The Rot Is Real And There Is More To It

Phillips’s Newsletter • 637 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Endemic corruption and the replacement of competent officers with loyalists and fanatics have hollowed out decision-making, morale, and expertise across the US military and diplomatic corps.
  2. The Iran bombing has exposed unprecedented operational failures — including large friendly‑fire losses, poor industrial/logistical preparation, and a confused articulation of strategic goals despite months of warning.
  3. Those failures carry dangerous consequences: likely catastrophic civilian harm (including a struck girls' school), the US being used to advance other countries' interests, and serious damage to alliance diplomacy and credibility.

Why Not to Mourn NATO, Volume II: The Bush-Putin Files

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 5000 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Declassified Bush–Putin transcripts show the U.S. pushed NATO expansion despite Russian warnings that adding countries like Ukraine would create long-term confrontation and instability.
  2. Expanding NATO while developing new offensive and defensive systems deepened mutual distrust and helped spark an arms race that alarmed Russian leaders.
  3. Repeated U.S. choices to prioritize enlargement over arms-control talks (like START II) meant missed chances to reduce tensions and preserve post‑9/11 cooperation.

Please Understand That Nothing Will Be Done About The Epstein Files

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2710 implied HN points • 04 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Powerful people and institutions named in the Epstein files will face no real consequences, and there won't be meaningful prosecutions or policy changes.
  2. The main effect will likely be that more people wake up or become radicalized to how corrupt and abusive the system is, rather than justice being served.
  3. Real change requires dismantling the broken system that elevates abusive elites; voting, electing new politicians, writing to representatives, or protests alone won’t fix it.

Your Primer on Greenland.

Breaking the News • 3437 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The push to seize Greenland stems from one person’s psychological desire for ownership rather than from rational national-interest reasons.
  2. The U.S. would get little or nothing and likely face net negative outcomes: military access already exists, mining is impractical now, and governing Greenland would be hugely costly and difficult.
  3. Greenlanders and the U.S.’s allies strongly oppose a takeover, and Greenland is much smaller, far more remote, and sparsely populated than many people realize.

Donald Trump’s Strategy of Decapitation

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 672 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The United States and Israel, led by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, shifted from coercion to a decapitation strategy and launched strikes aimed at Iran’s supreme leader.
  2. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s fate is unclear—officials say he may be dead or hiding—so he is now being treated as a target rather than a negotiating partner.
  3. Planners on the attacking side had long prepared 'day after' contingencies for how to manage the situation if the supreme leader were removed.

Silent Allies

Doomberg • 6686 implied HN points • 23 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Russia and China have been oddly muted in response to US moves to pressure or depose Venezuela’s Maduro, and that silence stands out given their professed alliances.
  2. Both countries have deep stakes in Venezuela — Russia with energy joint ventures and arms sales, and China as the country’s largest oil customer — so stronger pushback would have been expected.
  3. Their silence is itself a clue: treating it like the 'dog that didn't bark' opens multiple possible explanations and suggests mainstream reporting may be missing important context.