The hottest Inflation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

A Solution for QT

The Last Bear Standing • 135 implied HN points • 24 Mar 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Focus on balance sheet policy over interest rates for monetary policy.
  2. Quantitative Easing has a major impact on money supply growth.
  3. Consider 'Operation Squeeze' as a solution to liquidity concerns caused by Quantitative Tightening.

A Skeptic's Guide to Bitcoin

The Last Bear Standing • 76 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Fiat currencies can be debased through opaque tactics, benefiting some while hurting others.
  2. Bitcoin has proven itself as a means for global value transfer and storage since its inception in 2009.
  3. As Bitcoin demonstrates its use case, arguments against its legitimacy weaken, leading to broader acceptance.

The "New Normal" Mortgage Rate Range

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 105 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Real estate agents suggest that mortgage rates may decrease to around 5% or lower once inflation is back to the 2% target.
  2. Current 30-year mortgage rates are at 7.26%, significantly higher than the 3.5% to 5% range prior to the pandemic.
  3. Expectations do not foresee a return to 3% mortgage rates unless there is another crisis.

Easing Into Expansion

The Last Bear Standing • 24 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation is complex and influenced by many factors, making it hard to pinpoint why prices change. It often feels like a guessing game without clear answers.
  2. The market reacts strongly to data on inflation, analyzing numbers intensely, but sometimes it loses sight of the bigger picture, like underlying economic trends.
  3. Current monetary policies have shifted, and while they initially helped reduce inflation, signs suggest that prices may be climbing again as the economy changes.

Calculating inflation with ChatGPT

The End(s) of Argument • 19 implied HN points • 20 May 23
🕹 Technology Inflation
  1. Using Google search for calculating inflation can provide a cite-worthy and reproducible response in under a minute, making it superior to using ChatGPT for such tasks.
  2. Google search process requires less navigation knowledge, provides up-to-date information, and typically avoids providing initially incorrect answers, unlike ChatGPT.
  3. The process of search, like Google, offers an evaluable explanation of knowledge since it can lead to citing reliable sources, while ChatGPT offers disconnected simulations of traditional knowledge-building processes.
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Forward Guidance

The Last Bear Standing • 133 implied HN points • 03 Mar 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The Dot Plot is the Fed's way of showing where they think interest rates will go in the future.
  2. Yield Curve Control is when central banks adjust short-term and long-term rates to tackle inflation and maintain financial stability.
  3. The Fed's Dilemma involves trying to raise rates to tackle inflation while avoiding destabilizing long-duration assets and maintaining financial stability.

January 2025 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update and Inflation

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 21 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Home prices changed in the past two decades, with different local and national factors affecting these trends. This means that while prices may rise overall, local conditions can vary greatly.
  2. Recent inflation numbers showed a slight increase, but it's unclear if this is just a temporary change or part of a longer trend. It's important to watch these numbers closely for a clearer picture.
  3. When looking at inflation data, excluding shelter costs gives a better understanding of general price trends, which have generally stayed close to the target rate over time.

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 4th, 2024

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. This week has a packed economic calendar with important earnings reports coming from big companies like New York Times and Qualcomm.
  2. The U.S. elections are on Tuesday, which could distract from other economic updates but are still very important.
  3. Thursday is crucial as the Federal Reserve will announce their decision on interest rates, along with jobless claims data and several company earnings.

Money Supply Growth Accelerates And Hits A 27-Month High

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 24 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The money supply in the economy is growing rapidly, reaching a high not seen in over two years. This growth is mainly driven by government spending rather than strong economic conditions.
  2. Interest rates are being pushed down by the Federal Reserve to help manage the government's large debt. This could lead to future inflation as more money is created to handle increasing deficits.
  3. Despite recent economic growth, many believe it isn't based on solid foundations. The reliance on government spending and credit could pose risks for the economy moving forward.

If We Have a Strong Economy, Why Are Americans Struggling?

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 23 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Many Americans are struggling financially even when the economy seems strong. High inflation and rising costs are making life harder for a lot of people.
  2. Rising treasury yields and mortgage rates are linked to ongoing inflation and economic uncertainty. This means borrowing money is becoming more expensive.
  3. When people feel the pinch of price increases and government spending on foreign issues, they are likely to vote for change. Economic struggles can greatly influence election outcomes.

January 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 18 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Rising rents are causing rising home prices in the US housing market, with a greater than 1:1 pace.
  2. Density of housing is crucial in impacting housing prices, especially in cities like New York City, where dense neighborhoods are affected by supply shortages and migration trends.
  3. The impact of COVID-19 on housing trends varies across cities, with some areas experiencing temporary relief in housing costs for dense neighborhoods while other cities like New York face complexities in supply conditions.

January 2024 CPI Update

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Reaction to monthly CPI updates often fails to consider the lag affecting the shelter component, leading to surprises in news interpretation.
  2. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut were influenced by the latest report, shifting them further in the future.
  3. Monetary measures like currency in circulation and M2 trended down post-Covid scare, while the Fed's balance sheet shrinks without obvious disruption.

Fire and Ice

The Transcript • 39 implied HN points • 20 Mar 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The Fed is facing the challenge of balancing inflation control with supporting the financial system.
  2. The impact of recent events on Silicon Valley Bank is causing uncertainty in the markets.
  3. Consumer spending remains steady amidst the uncertainties in the financial sector.

Waiting for More Data

The Transcript • 39 implied HN points • 06 Mar 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The Fed is closely monitoring inflation and employment data before their next meeting
  2. Some Fed governors addressed concerns about economic and inflation data
  3. The Fed aims to avoid overreacting to the readings

Inflation Still Sticky

The Transcript • 19 implied HN points • 18 Sep 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation may not be decreasing as quickly as expected
  2. Consumers are still faring well despite the sticky inflation
  3. There is uncertainty regarding whether the Fed will raise rates again and the impact it may have

2023 Economic Year-in-Review

Apricitas Economics • 64 implied HN points • 23 Dec 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Economic growth in 2023 exceeded expectations, with GDP rising and inflation cooling.
  2. Despite a banking crisis early in the year, financial conditions improved as the year progressed.
  3. The year saw a decline in inflation, a slowdown in the 'Great Resignation', and a historic year for American housing markets.

📈 The Stock Market is NOT the Economy

UnfairNation by Ehsan Zaffar • 7 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The stock market does not reflect how everyday people are doing. While stocks might rise, people's real-life finances can still be tough.
  2. Most stock wealth is held by a small percentage of Americans, meaning the stock market mainly shows the rich's mood, not everyone's financial health.
  3. We need better ways to measure a strong economy, focusing on things like affordable living, fair wages, and student debt, instead of just stock prices.

The Costco Gold Indicator

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 74 implied HN points • 29 Sep 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The average American's trust in fiscal and monetary policy can be seen through buying gold at Costco.
  2. Public awareness of how central banking works is increasing.
  3. Criticisms and questions about central banking policies are becoming more common and publicly discussed.

Inflation is Over

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 105 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation may have ended, as data shows a decline in prices over the past months.
  2. Removing the shelter component from inflation measurements may lead to a more accurate CPI.
  3. Addressing the housing supply issue could resolve misconceptions around monetary policy and inflation.

What If We Run Inflation Hot: Harris Kupperman

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 20 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Inflation may rise faster than expected, which could surprise many investors. People are not prepared for high growth in the economy right now.
  2. The recent economic changes have benefited many workers and industries that were struggling for a long time. This includes wage increases in sectors that needed them.
  3. Questions are being raised about whether efforts to control inflation are really aimed at the overall economy or at a specific group of people in the rural areas.

Grading the Trade

The Last Bear Standing • 101 implied HN points • 17 Feb 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Balancing risks and benefits involves trade-offs between conflicting goals.
  2. Monetary expansion during the pandemic led to rapid growth but also increased inflation.
  3. The decision to stimulate demand has resulted in inflation battles and uncertainty about future economic stability.

The Disinflationary Process Continues

Apricitas Economics • 87 implied HN points • 15 Apr 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. US inflation is decreasing, especially in energy and core goods.
  2. Food prices, especially at-home food items, are cooling down after disruptions in agricultural markets.
  3. Expectations are high for continued disinflation, with markets and businesses predicting slowing inflation rates.

Are Real Wages Rising?

Apricitas Economics • 56 implied HN points • 11 Nov 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Average wage growth has outpaced inflation since the pandemic.
  2. Lower-wage workers have seen proportionally larger wage gains.
  3. Real wage growth depends on the strength of the labor market and can be impacted by inflation and distribution.

March 2024 Fed Meeting Preview

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 19 Mar 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Consider using NGDP growth to communicate monetary policy instead of targeting inflation with short term interest rates.
  2. The yield curve's dynamics indicate recessionary signals and potential rate cuts by the Fed.
  3. Economic growth predictions for 2024 suggest low inflation, steady GDP growth, and a possible decrease in target rates by the Fed.

The Great Depositor Bailout

MD&A • 78 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Depositing money in a bank is a safe store of value but doesn't yield much return.
  2. Depositors face risks like losing purchasing power due to inflation.
  3. Inflation can benefit borrowers like the government and households, while bank depositors bear the brunt of losing purchasing power.

The Most Important New Disinflation Indicator

Apricitas Economics • 63 implied HN points • 15 Jul 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The New Tenant Repeat Rent Index provides a more accurate measure of current housing market conditions and predicts future disinflation.
  2. Housing inflation is currently the main driving force behind overall inflation, with non-housing inflation remaining relatively stable.
  3. The 'speed limit' theory of inflation suggests that the growth rate of the labor market, rather than its level, is a key determinant of rent inflation and overall price stability.

Modern Monetary University Plagiarism Theory

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 43 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Academia has a deep-seated issue of plagiarism and flawed economic theories affecting central bank policies.
  2. The monetary policy is on a dangerous path, leading to high debt, inflation, and mismanagement.
  3. The consequences of economic academic circle-jerks will have profound impacts when the flawed policies unravel.

Europe's second 'China shock' is blessing in disguise

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 09 Dec 25
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. Cheap Chinese exports are once again putting heavy competitive pressure on European manufacturers, repeating a shock similar to two decades ago.
  2. The flood of lower-priced imports is pushing down consumer prices and easing inflationary pressures across Europe.
  3. That disinflation gives the European Central Bank more leeway to cut interest rates in 2026, potentially easing financial conditions and supporting growth.

The Attention Economy

Kyla’s Newsletter • 67 implied HN points • 27 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inflation
  1. Our attention is valuable in the marketplace, companies will pay big money to capture it.
  2. Media and narratives can shape our thoughts and perspectives, affecting how we perceive reality.
  3. Market forces influence storytelling, from news media outrage to consumer goods pricing.

America's Weakening Labor Market

Apricitas Economics • 51 implied HN points • 02 Sep 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The US labor market has cooled significantly, with job and wage growth decelerating.
  2. The era of the 'Great Reshuffling' in the labor market is ending, as job switch rates decrease.
  3. Businesses are becoming more pessimistic about hiring, leading to lower revenue and hiring expectations.

A new way to look at inflation (revised)

America in Crisis • 19 implied HN points • 24 Jan 23
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The article provides a different perspective on how the American economy evolved post-WW II by blending inflation concepts and looking at economic performance over different eras.
  2. Inflation and its control play a significant role, with the article discussing the Phillips curve and the quantity theory of money in understanding economic changes.
  3. A key trend highlighted is the rise in financial flows out of the real economy in recent decades, impacting inflation control and economic growth by shifting focus towards financial assets over productivity-enhancing capital.

Investing Update: Signs Of A Market Top?

Spilled Coffee • 16 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
💰 Finance Inflation
  1. The S&P 500 reached its 51st all-time high this year, showing strong market performance. However, it ended the week lower, with declines seen across major stock indices.
  2. Inflation is stabilizing, with recent data showing it remains under control. Wage gains have also outpaced inflation for the past 18 months, which is good news for consumers.
  3. Post-election market surges are common, and this trend has continued in 2024. Historically, stock markets tend to do well under a unified government, which seems to be the case now.