The hottest IPO Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

Sam Altman on OpenAI’s Plan to Win, AI Personalization, Infrastructure Math, and The Inevitable IPO

Big Technology • 3878 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
🕹 Technology IPO
  1. OpenAI is under intense competitive pressure after Google’s Gemini 3, triggering a ‘Code Red’ and urgent strategic responses.
  2. The company is pushing product ambitions and AI personalization to win users and differentiate its offerings.
  3. OpenAI faces massive infrastructure costs and is planning financing — including an eventual IPO — to pay for the trillion‑scale buildout.

Two AI Lab IPOs: S-1 Breakdowns

Tanay’s Newsletter • 107 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
💼 Business IPO
  1. Two different go-to-market strategies emerged: Zhipu is deployment-first, selling on-prem and enterprise solutions with professional services, while MiniMax is product-first, monetizing through consumer apps and an open developer platform.
  2. Both companies show rapid revenue growth but are still burning substantial cash; the enterprise-focused model yields much higher gross margins while the consumer app business runs on thin margins.
  3. Their IPOs raised large sums and jumped strongly on debut, valuing each firm at over $10B and pricing them at more than 200x 2025 annualized revenue, which signals very high investor expectations for AI labs.

IPO: Z.ai intends to raise $560M at a valuation of $6.5 billion.

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 30 Dec 25
💼 Business IPO
  1. Z.ai plans to raise $560 million at about a $6.5 billion valuation while still small and deeply loss-making. Its revenues grew quickly but R&D spending and cash burn are massive, and most IPO proceeds are earmarked for more R&D and expansion.
  2. China’s AI market looks set to be enterprise- and on-premise-led, with vendors selling tailored, locally hosted models to corporations. Regulators are also tightening rules on safety, data consent, and content even as Chinese labs release competitive open models and pursue public listings.
  3. Building cutting-edge AI requires enormous capital and infrastructure, so big investors and tech firms are pouring money in, which reduces funding risk but increases execution pressure to monetize and scale. That dynamic favors well-funded players while smaller labs race to grow.

What's Next for SAS? (Again)

thomaswdinsmore • 199 implied HN points • 02 Jun 24
💼 Business IPO
  1. SAS founder Jim Goodnight faces a transition in leadership and ownership as he's 82 with no children engaged in the business.
  2. Options for SAS's future include selling to employees, a corporate buyer, or private equity investors, all of which may lead to restructuring.
  3. Despite initial plans to go public, SAS has faced challenges with growth and profitability, leading to multiple delays in the IPO process.

Biotech Startup Stats

Rough Diamonds • 20 implied HN points • 05 Feb 26
💼 Business IPO
  1. Most biotech startups either fail or lose value after IPO, with only a small share of currently trading firms showing positive long‑term returns; many poorly performing public companies may simply not have failed yet.
  2. Location and company age strongly predict outcomes: firms based in biotech hubs (CA, MA, NY, NJ, PA) do much better, and newer firms are more likely to still be trading due to lifecycle effects.
  3. Scientific focus and pipeline stage matter: biologics (especially antibodies), rare disease and immunology focuses, targets like PD‑1, and IPOing at Phase III are linked to acquisitions or positive returns, while "other" modalities (e.g., formulations, natural products) tend to underperform.
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Raising Heel

HIDDEN.RSRCH • 569 implied HN points • 12 Oct 23
💼 Business IPO
  1. Birkenstock has filed for an IPO after being a long-standing orthopedic shoe company.
  2. The company's value is high due to consistently making quality products.
  3. The journey to success for Birkenstock has been traditional and focused on quality.

Notes on Chapter 30

Life Since the Baby Boom • 461 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🕹 Technology IPO
  1. Netscape going public marked a big moment, but it wasn't an instant fortune for everyone involved. There were rules that kept employees from cashing out right away.
  2. When IPOs happen, share prices can soar initially due to limited availability. But once the lockup ends, prices often drop sharply, leading to disappointment.
  3. Not everyone realized the Internet's impact back then, and many were oblivious to its potential. While some like Bill Gates recognized it as a threat, others lagged behind in understanding.

Interesting Take on the Figma IPO

startupdreams • 105 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
💼 Business IPO
  1. Figma's IPO was a big surprise because it opened at a much higher price than expected. The shares were initially priced at $33 but quickly jumped to over $120.
  2. Investors and the company lost a lot of potential money because the IPO was underpriced. This means they could have made billions more if they priced it correctly.
  3. There might be legal issues ahead because the underpricing upset many investors, especially big-name venture capitalists who feel they missed out on huge profits.

Ambiq’s IPO is good fun, and 7 Q2 '25 VC data points

Alex's Personal Blog • 98 implied HN points • 08 Jul 25
💼 Business IPO
  1. Ambiq is going public earlier than usual, which is exciting. They make chips for AI devices, and by leaving China, they are boosting their profits.
  2. Core Scientific's shareholders are unhappy about a deal with CoreWeave because the deal is risky. If CoreWeave's stock drops before the deal closes, it could be worth less than expected.
  3. In Q2 2025, US startups saw a lot of investment, especially in AI. Early-stage startup valuations are at record highs, showing a strong interest in new ventures.

Instacart

Sriram Krishnan’s Newsletter • 157 implied HN points • 19 Sep 23
💼 Business IPO
  1. Instacart's IPO is a positive event for the startup and tech ecosystem worldwide.
  2. This liquidity event is seen as an adrenaline boost for the industry.
  3. Encouragement for more late-stage tech startups to consider going public.

Welcome to the $4 trillion club

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25
💼 Business IPO
  1. Microsoft's earnings have soared, making it one of the few companies valued at $4 trillion. Their cloud services, especially Azure, are growing rapidly and driving this success.
  2. AI companies like Ambiq and Figma are having successful IPOs, with Ambiq's shares jumping significantly after its debut. This shows strong investor interest in AI technologies.
  3. Meta's recent earnings report surprised many, showing significant revenue growth. Their heavy investment in AI is expected to enhance their advertising capabilities and overall business.

ServiceTitan S-1 Breakdown

Tanay’s Newsletter • 82 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💼 Business IPO
  1. ServiceTitan is a software company that helps tradespeople like plumbers and electricians run their businesses better. They provide tools for managing customer relationships and service workflows.
  2. The company has been growing quickly, with a revenue increase of 24% in the last year. They make money from subscriptions, payment processing fees, and professional services.
  3. ServiceTitan is preparing for an IPO and plans to manage investor concerns about profitability. They have strategies in place to handle potential valuation drops and minimize shareholder dilution.

Phoenix Puts UAE On Bitcoin Mining Map

Miner Weekly • 39 implied HN points • 23 Nov 23
🔮 Crypto IPO
  1. Phoenix, a UAE-based bitcoin mining company, raised $370 million in an IPO on the Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange, highlighting growing interest in bitcoin mining in the region.
  2. Phoenix appears to focus more on hardware distribution rather than proprietary mining, indicating potential plans for diversification in the future.
  3. Key highlights of Phoenix's business include a sizeable team, impressive hashrate capacity, and a revenue stream primarily reliant on hardware sales.

Klarna's going public, and I'm excited as hell

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💼 Business IPO
  1. Klarna is planning to go public, which is exciting news for the fintech industry. Their recent financial improvements and a strong market for BNPL companies are driving this move.
  2. Klarna's growth has been mixed, with rapid increases followed by significant losses in previous years. However, they have managed to reduce losses and improve revenue in the last year.
  3. The current market favors companies like Klarna due to rising stock prices in the fintech sector. This suggests that investors believe there will be less strict regulations on their lending practices.

Swiggy's IPO inches closer to trading, and is the stock market dangerously overvalued?

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance IPO
  1. Swiggy's IPO is almost finished and it's expected to have a very high valuation. Many people are excited about it, but there are some concerns too.
  2. The stock market might be overvalued right now, which could be risky for investors. It's important to stay informed about the market trends.
  3. There are various economic factors influencing the market, like changes in inflation and company performance. Keeping an eye on these factors can help investors make better decisions.

Good news, IPO edition

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💼 Business IPO
  1. Coincheck, a Japanese crypto exchange, recently went public through a SPAC deal and its shares are doing well. Even though they raised less than expected, being valued above the traditional SPAC price is a positive sign.
  2. ServiceTitan's IPO priced at $71 per share, which is higher than its previous range, marking it as a success despite some concerns about its past valuation. It shows that good market conditions can help companies raise more money.
  3. The European economy is facing slow growth and has cut interest rates to help manage inflation. This situation reflects challenges in recovery and suggests that Europe may need to change its approach to improve its economic performance over time.

What if the Current Tech IPO Drought isn't a Drought but the New Normal for Venture?

Venture Reflections • 18 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💼 Business IPO
  1. The slowdown in tech IPOs might not be a temporary issue, but rather a shift to fewer, larger IPOs that happen less frequently. This could change how we view the IPO landscape.
  2. Many companies are now able to raise enough money privately, so they don't feel the need to go public. This reduces the urgency for IPOs as a source of liquidity.
  3. As companies wait longer to go public, secondary sales could become the main way smaller investors get returns. This change means that the investment landscape might focus more on private equity than on public markets.

Issue #95: X Is Getting Into P2P Payments, Circle Files For An IPO, And Revolut Gains Interest In Its HR Tech Offering

Fintech Radar • 18 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
💰 Finance IPO
  1. Twitter (X) plans to introduce peer-to-peer payments, a logical starting point given its large user base and commerce opportunities
  2. Revolut's HR platform, Revolut People, attracts over 300 companies to its waitlist, surprising with strong interest in the offering
  3. Mastercard is developing an AI tool for small businesses, showing a cautious approach amid a potential trend towards more AI-focused innovations in the market

Breaking down Databricks $500 Million Funding Raise

Machine Economy Press • 3 implied HN points • 19 Sep 23
💼 Business IPO
  1. Databricks raised over $500 million with a valuation of $43 billion in a Series I funding round.
  2. Nvidia is backing multiple AI startups with significant investments, including Databricks, showcasing its commitment to the future of AI.
  3. Databricks, a mature and profitable startup founded in 2013, is likely to go public in 2024 or 2025, competing with Snowflake in the enterprise AI space.

Are you ready to value Groupon?

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 02 Nov 11
💼 Business IPO
  1. Groupon's initial estimated value dropped from $20 billion to around $12 billion due to management's credibility issues and concerns over customer acquisition costs. This shows how important a company's reputation is in the market.
  2. The company's revenue saw a huge rise of over 300% from 2010 to 2011, but sustaining that growth will be a challenge. It's crucial to be careful when predicting future growth for businesses.
  3. The valuation suggests that investing in Groupon is also a bet on the economy as it can profit from tough economic times. This makes it a unique business model that depends on different economic conditions.

Stream On: An IPO Valuation of Spotify!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 17 Mar 18
💼 Business IPO
  1. Spotify has experienced rapid growth, significantly increasing its user base and revenues in recent years. This growth is crucial as it shows the company's potential in the competitive music streaming industry.
  2. A large portion of Spotify's revenue comes from premium subscriptions rather than ad revenue, highlighting the importance of getting users to pay for better experiences.
  3. The company's content costs are declining as a percentage of revenue, which could help improve profit margins, but there is ongoing tension between keeping music labels and artists satisfied while managing costs.

China Securities Regulatory Commission Approves WebRay IPO!

CyberSecurityMew • 0 implied HN points • 01 Jun 23
💼 Business IPO
  1. China Securities Regulatory Commission approved WebRay's IPO, focusing on cybersecurity technology and services.
  2. WebRay emphasizes 'Security First, Governance Foremost,' offering a range of cybersecurity products and services to users.
  3. The company emphasizes precision identification, accurate defense, and deep business integration to support national cyberspace security strategy implementation.

IPO Watch: Figma raises range, Firefly sets it, Ambiq on track to trade

Alex's Personal Blog • 0 implied HN points • 29 Jul 25
💼 Business IPO
  1. Figma has raised its IPO price range, aiming for a higher valuation, which shows strong investor interest. This could mean good returns for its backers when it goes public.
  2. Chinese AI companies like Z.ai are focusing on open-source models, making them affordable. This is a smart strategy, especially since many clients prefer open-source options over closed ones.
  3. There is a growing divide between American and Chinese approaches to AI development, with the U.S. leaning toward closed models and China emphasizing open-source technology. This shift might impact how global AI markets evolve.