The Informationist

The Informationist is a weekly financial newsletter that distills complex financial concepts, global economic trends, and monetary policies into digestible insights. It covers topics from interest rate risks, hyperinflation, recession indicators, to the implications of significant monetary policies, while also analyzing market strategies, the dynamics of debt and investments, and the potential shifts in global economic power.

Financial Concepts Global Economic Trends Monetary Policies Market Strategies Investment Analysis Economic Indicators Global Financial Stability

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And their main takeaways

The Economy Enters the D-Zone

1179 implied HN points • 23 Jul 23
💰 Finance Economy Debt Bonds Bankruptcy Investing
  1. Rising interest rates may lead to debt defaults as borrowing costs increase
  2. Tripping covenants signal liquidity problems at companies and can lead to defaults
  3. Higher default rates could indicate an economic downturn and the need for careful portfolio management

The Bank of Japan July Surprise

1100 implied HN points • 30 Jul 23
💰 Finance Market Dynamics Central Banks Interest Rates Investments
  1. The Bank of Japan recently made an announcement that caused the USD and Japanese bond yields to shift.
  2. The implications of the Bank of Japan's actions have affected US Treasuries and could lead to the US Treasury issuing more debt.
  3. Investors are advised to strategically manage portfolios due to potential market shifts and economic uncertainties.

Interest Rate Risks are Collapsing Banks

1650 implied HN points • 30 Apr 23
💰 Finance Banking Interest Rates Risk management Financial Crisis Investments
  1. Interest rate risks can lead to bank collapses due to mismanagement and lack of oversight
  2. Different types of interest rate risks affect banks' financial positions, such as repricing risk and basis risk
  3. It is important for individuals to be cautious with their bank deposits and consider diversifying investments based on personal risk tolerance and long-term goals

Could the USD Hyperinflate?

1592 implied HN points • 07 May 23
💰 Finance Inflation Markets Currency Investments Assets
  1. Hyperinflation is when a currency loses value rapidly due to extreme inflation.
  2. Some currencies have hyperinflated in the past, like those of Yugoslavia, Zimbabwe, and Hungary.
  3. While there is a chance the USD could hyperinflate, it is likely one of the last currencies to do so and owning hard assets can help protect against hyperinflation.

Market Multiples and the Magnificent Seven

1002 implied HN points • 16 Jul 23
💰 Finance Investor behavior
  1. Equity basics involve understanding ownership in public companies through shares and their value
  2. Market multiples like PE ratios help gauge stock valuations based on earnings
  3. The 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks have seen huge growth, but caution is advised as multiples expand and history shows similar patterns
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Telltale Signs of a Recession

1356 implied HN points • 09 Apr 23
💰 Finance
  1. A recession is a period of economic decline lasting at least six months, indicated by decreasing GDP, rising unemployment, and reduced spending.
  2. The inversion of the US Treasury yield curve is a reliable leading indicator of a coming recession, happening 6 to 18 months before the actual onset.
  3. Divergence between GDP and GDI, along with falling corporate profits, can signal economic contraction, with 93% of CEOs preparing for a recession in 2023.

World Yields are Inverting: Why it Matters

982 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investments
  1. Yield curve inversions can predict recessions, with the US and other G7 countries experiencing this phenomenon.
  2. G7 Treasury yields show inversion trends, indicating economic slowdowns and potential recessions in various countries.
  3. Italy and Japan have unique yield curve situations, with issues like high risk premiums for Italy and Japan's unique economic conditions.

Can BRICS Topple the US Dollar?

1139 implied HN points • 16 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics BRICS
  1. BRICS aims to reduce dependence on USD for transactions and reserves
  2. Foreign ownership of US Treasuries is decreasing, impacting the status of USD as global reserve asset
  3. Countries like Iran and Saudi Arabia are interested in joining the BRICS alliance for economic cooperation

PCE and the *Supercore* Inflation Reading

1120 implied HN points • 02 Apr 23
💰 Finance Economics Inflation Measurement
  1. PCE is a monthly inflation measure that tracks consumer spending on goods and services.
  2. PCE methodology differs from CPI in coverage, methodology, and population coverage.
  3. Supercore PCE Deflator, preferred by the Fed, removes food, energy, gas, electricity, and housing from core inflation readings.

Are TIPS and I-Bonds Good Investments?

963 implied HN points • 28 May 23
💰 Finance Investments Bonds Inflation Government Assets
  1. TIPS are Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities that protect investors from inflation by adjusting principal based on changes in CPI.
  2. I-Bonds are similar to TIPS in protecting from inflation, but have fixed rates and are not tradable in the secondary market.
  3. Both TIPS and I-Bonds are highly dependent on CPI for pricing and may not offer positive real rates of return in the real world.

Will gold pave the yellow BRICS road?

4 HN points • 09 Jul 23
💰 Finance Global Economy Currency Gold Debt
  1. BRICS nations are considering introducing a gold-backed currency to reduce dependency on the US dollar.
  2. The US has deviated from the gold standard, leading to concerns about debt levels and potential economic implications.
  3. For the gold-backed currency to work, BRICS nations would need to establish trust and a system that ensures the currency is fully redeemable for gold, potentially impacting the global financial landscape.