The hottest Investor behavior Substack posts right now

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Why Bitcoin Is Crashing

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 255 implied HN points • 12 Feb 26
🔮 Crypto Investor behavior
  1. Borrowed money is the main cause of Bitcoin crashes. Heavy debt creates cascades of losses that amplify price drops.
  2. The crashes repeat and resemble traditional market meltdowns, not just a simple battle between believers and skeptics.
  3. Bitcoin fell sharply from its 2025 highs — over $120,000 and roughly $2 trillion in value — to about half that, including a one-week drop of about 25%.

Guest Essay: VC Contagion

Newcomer • 1808 implied HN points • 31 May 23
💼 Business Investor behavior
  1. Venture capital supports unsustainable models to achieve scale, like with tech giants Apple, Google, and Amazon.
  2. Companies like Uber and Airbnb, initially fueled by VC funding, now face challenges as they struggle with profitability.
  3. VC funding has fueled a culture of excessive capital consumption, leading to concerns about sustainability and the future of innovation.

Market Multiples and the Magnificent Seven

The Informationist • 1002 implied HN points • 16 Jul 23
💰 Finance Investor behavior
  1. Equity basics involve understanding ownership in public companies through shares and their value
  2. Market multiples like PE ratios help gauge stock valuations based on earnings
  3. The 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks have seen huge growth, but caution is advised as multiples expand and history shows similar patterns

Does the rise of index funds make managers myopic?

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
💰 Finance Investor behavior
  1. Managers facing frequent quarterly guidance often favor strategies that smooth short-term earnings, even when those choices reduce long-term value.
  2. High index fund ownership tends to increase short-term decision making, but mainly at firms that already give frequent earnings guidance, because managers then aim for predictable results.
  3. The key issue is fewer long-term shareholders and the incentive to stay in indexes, so it’s the combination of ownership composition and guidance habits — not index funds alone — that drives myopic behavior.
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L.E. Guest Post | The Great Taiwan Bubble

Lewis Enterprises • 117 implied HN points • 11 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investor behavior
  1. Recognize the need for making many difficult decisions in a complex market environment.
  2. Less value in pinpointing specific turning points, focus on themes like subsidized trading and speculative disclosure.
  3. Study historical market structures and player behavior to learn from past financial bubbles and avoid repeating mistakes.

I, too, am terrified of better, faster, and cheaper AI models and services

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Investor behavior
  1. Investors might have assumed that U.S. tech companies would always lead in AI, but that dominance isn't guaranteed. New challenges can always arise from competitors.
  2. The rapid drop in Nvidia's market value shows how volatile the tech sector can be, especially with hype around AI. A sudden selloff can happen, and it can be surprising.
  3. There's a perception that other countries, like China, are not idle when it comes to AI development. Many talented developers worldwide are working hard, so competition is always increasing.

Do you trust AI forecasts?

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 09 Jul 25
💰 Finance Investor behavior
  1. Many people trust human predictions over AI forecasts, but this can change based on a person's knowledge of AI. Those who understand AI better often trust its predictions more than those from humans.
  2. Some investors believe AI forecasts can be more reliable than human forecasts because they see flaws in human analysis. This creates a divide between traditional and tech-savvy investors.
  3. There are different styles of analysts: some focus on numbers and models while others rely on qualitative insights. Different investors prefer different styles based on their own backgrounds and preferences.

Introducing Exchange Flow Metrics

Coin Metrics' State of the Network • 0 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🔮 Crypto Investor behavior
  1. New metrics help track Bitcoin and Ethereum flows to and from exchanges. This data can show how much people are buying or selling and help understand the market.
  2. There has been an increase in miners sending Bitcoin to exchanges recently. This could be due to them wanting to secure profits before changes in Bitcoin rewards.
  3. Crypto.com is gaining a larger share of the Bitcoin market lately. By looking at trading volumes and flow data, we can tell if market activity is genuine or just fake trades.

Culprit found for market crisis!!!!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 07 Jun 09
💰 Finance Investor behavior
  1. The efficient market hypothesis claims that markets are generally accurate in pricing assets, meaning it’s tough for investors to consistently beat the market. Some people believe this idea is not entirely true.
  2. There are criticisms of the notion that financial leaders fully trusted the efficient market hypothesis. Many academics recognized market inefficiencies long before the crisis and warned about issues like asset bubbles.
  3. The idea that the financial crisis is largely due to the efficient market theory overlooks other factors. Issues like poor regulations, the creation of complex financial products, and incentive structures also played significant roles.

Behavioral Corporate Finance 1: The Objective in Decision Making:

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 19 Jul 09
💼 Business Investor behavior
  1. Every business should have a clear goal for decision making. Traditionally, that goal is to make the company as valuable as possible, often by focusing on boosting stock prices.
  2. Behavioral finance points out that investors can act irrationally, which means stock prices might not always reflect a company's true value. Managers should be cautious about making decisions solely based on stock price reactions.
  3. It's essential for managers to aim for long-term value but also pay attention to market feedback. They can adjust their decisions to better connect with investors while still working towards the company's overall success.

The UK is back in business. Someone forgot to tell British investors

Klement on Investing • 0 implied HN points • 21 Aug 25
💰 Finance Investor behavior
  1. The UK economy is growing faster than any other country in the G7. This means businesses are doing well and there's positive movement in the market.
  2. British investors are not taking full advantage of this growth. While foreign buyers are benefiting, many locals seem hesitant or unaware of the opportunities.
  3. The UK stock market is outperforming Wall Street in 2025, so it may be a good time for British investors to reconsider their strategies and get involved.

All assets are illiquid

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 21 Dec 10
💰 Finance Investor behavior
  1. All assets are considered illiquid, meaning they can't always be sold quickly at their current price without costs involved. This changes how we understand and measure the value of assets.
  2. Illiquidity varies between different asset classes, like real estate being less liquid compared to stocks and bonds. Some stocks are also more liquid based on their size and price.
  3. Investors care about liquidity because it affects asset prices and returns. Illiquid assets tend to have lower prices and higher expected returns, especially during market crises.

Testing Times: Market Turmoil and Investment Serenity

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 10 Feb 18
💰 Finance Investor behavior
  1. In a market crisis, it's easy to lose perspective and panic. It's important to step back, assess the damage, and remember your long-term gains.
  2. Market drops can happen for different reasons, including fear, fundamentals like rising interest rates, or a reassessment of risk. Understanding the cause can help guide your decisions.
  3. Having a solid investment philosophy is key. Stick to your beliefs about investing, especially during turbulent times, and make decisions that align with your core principles.