Matt’s Five Points

Matt’s Five Points is a newsletter that analyzes U.S. politics and political science with an emphasis on the Republican Party's internal dynamics, legislative procedures, and the influence of social media on political engagement. It also includes reflections on local politics, personal insights from card games, and institutional changes in electoral processes.

Republican Party Legislative Processes Political Engagement Institutional Change Social Media Local Politics Card Games

The hottest Substack posts of Matt’s Five Points

And their main takeaways

Seeing Like a Party

0 implied HN points • 07 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Political Behavior Party Dynamics Public Opinion
  1. Members of Congress usually focus on three main goals: getting re-elected, gaining power, and making good laws. Often, re-election is the top priority because it allows them to achieve the other two.
  2. Political parties can sometimes take risks by supporting policies that might hurt them in the short term. Unlike individual members, parties can survive losses and hope to regain power later, which may lead them to make different decisions.
  3. There's a trend in how people view party success, with a focus mainly on winning elections. This mindset ignores the importance of long-term policy goals, which can be more beneficial for the party's future.

On Package Deals

0 implied HN points • 20 Jul 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Compromise Political strategy History Government
  1. Logrolling is a strategy where different policies are bundled together so that people can vote for something they like even if it means accepting other policies they don't. This is often how large bills get passed.
  2. Sometimes, putting too many different policies into one big bill can backfire. If groups strongly oppose certain parts, they all might just vote against the entire bill instead.
  3. Breaking a big bill into smaller, separate pieces can help solve the problem. By doing this, legislators can get the support of those who can agree to individual parts without forcing everyone to compromise on what they strongly believe.

Pop quiz

0 implied HN points • 08 Jul 11
💰 Finance Economics Investments Inflation Market Trends
  1. The price of oil going up or down can be seen as both good and bad. It depends on how it affects the economy and individual finances.
  2. Higher oil prices can benefit oil companies and help certain investments, which might be good for retirement funds.
  3. However, rising oil prices can also lead to inflation, making it harder for many people to afford goods and services.

Congress!

0 implied HN points • 24 Jun 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Debate Governance War Powers Bipartisanship
  1. It's important for Congress to have open debates about war powers. This is a sign of a healthy democracy.
  2. People might have different views on wars and laws, but discussing these issues is crucial.
  3. Congress should be more involved in decisions about war, instead of relying solely on the President.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Bipartisanship

0 implied HN points • 31 May 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Bipartisanship Legislation Political Analysis
  1. Recent Senate votes show that no budget resolution has majority support, indicating political challenges in making decisions.
  2. A unanimous rejection of the president's budget is unusual and demonstrates a disconnect between the White House and Congress.
  3. Presidents typically find a safer political route by adapting their proposals to Congress rather than taking bold risks that may fail.

FIVE POINTS: Rex-N-Effect, Trump Shaker

0 implied HN points • 06 Oct 17
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Presidency Legislation Political parties Elections Political Scandals
  1. The president is struggling with weak approval ratings and low influence, making it hard for him to push his agenda or get support from his cabinet.
  2. Gun control advocates might face disappointment as Congress may soon ban bump stocks, but this action won't significantly reduce gun violence.
  3. Working in Congress can be tough due to long hours and low pay, but many staffers enjoy the work because they feel they can make a real difference.

Off-Year

0 implied HN points • 06 Nov 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Government Political Science Local Politics
  1. Local elections often happen in off-years, away from federal and state elections. This can change how people vote and participate.
  2. Sarah Anzia has researched how these off-year elections affect politics and voters' decisions. Her work provides useful insights.
  3. Understanding these local elections can help us see the bigger picture of how policies and interests play out in communities.

On the 18th Amendment and the Volstead Act

0 implied HN points • 09 May 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Prohibition History Constitution
  1. Prohibition was a failure because the 18th Amendment didn't enforce itself and left too much up to Congress. Without clear penalties, it was hard to expect compliance from people.
  2. The Volstead Act tried to define what types of alcohol to ban, but it opened up lots of loopholes and made it difficult to enforce. This made many groups find ways around the law, which weakened the whole idea of Prohibition.
  3. People didn't fully support Prohibition, so even if the laws were perfect, they wouldn't work. This shows that for social changes to succeed, strong belief and support are crucial along with solid laws.

On Market Reactions to Politics

0 implied HN points • 24 Jul 11
💰 Finance Market Trends Investing Economic Policy Risk Analysis Political Economy
  1. Market prices can drop significantly during political turmoil, even if the long-term company value remains stable. It's important to spot these opportunities to invest wisely.
  2. There are two main views on raising the debt ceiling: one prioritizes immediate economic stability, the other focuses on long-term debt control. Both need serious action to back up the talk.
  3. Currently, the market shows increased volatility, meaning potential big shifts up or down. Smart investors might find good deals in stocks if there's a chance of a debt deal soon.

FIVE POINTS: Frosted Flakes of Scorn

0 implied HN points • 27 Oct 17
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Congress Political culture Electoral Politics Political theory
  1. 1. Passing a congressional budget resolution isn't that big of a deal. It sets some spending limits, but it doesn't actually cut spending or guarantee any laws will pass.
  2. 2. The work environment in Congress can be tough for young women, highlighting the need to address sexual harassment issues in that unique culture.
  3. 3. Senator Jeff Flake is well-liked for his kindness and politeness. Even though he's stepping down, many will miss his respectful approach to politics.

Deficit Disorder

0 implied HN points • 19 Aug 11
💰 Finance Economic Policy Debt Management Government spending
  1. There's a constant struggle between short-term and long-term economic needs. Short-term solutions like stimulus often overshadow long-term plans for dealing with debt.
  2. Any attempt to fix long-term debt issues will usually create short-term problems. Cutting spending or increasing taxes can make people suffer right away.
  3. Getting serious about reducing debt often happens when the economy is in a good place, but that can be the wrong time. It shows the challenges in making good political and economic decisions.

On the possibiltiy of a centrist 3rd party in 2012

0 implied HN points • 15 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political parties Elections Campaigns
  1. The chances for a successful centrist third party depend on the Republican nominee being very conservative, which could push some moderate voters toward an independent candidate.
  2. Starting a third party campaign is tough because of strict campaign finance laws and the need for early fundraising and organization.
  3. Even if a credible centrist candidate emerges, it might not lead to a lasting third party due to the strong two-party system in place.

FIVE POINTS: Shut the Front Door

0 implied HN points • 19 Jan 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Legislation Political parties Public Opinion Congress
  1. A government shutdown doesn’t completely stop operations, but it does freeze funding for salaries and expenditures. The government can make contracts but can't pay for them without proper funding.
  2. The Democrats are hesitant to filibuster because they don't want to take the blame for a shutdown. If they see that the Republican side can muster enough votes, they might just go along and support the bill.
  3. Polling on issues like DACA can be misleading. Just because a lot of people support an idea doesn't mean it will help a politician's approval rating because many voters care about different issues when voting.

More Congressional Jargon

0 implied HN points • 12 Nov 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Government Congress Political Communication
  1. Congress has its own special language filled with jargon that staffers use. Terms like 'BTU'd' and 'ping-pong' describe specific political situations.
  2. 'Push-back' refers to when groups disagree with proposed legislation, while 'face time' means the one-on-one time staffers get with their bosses.
  3. There are various informal processes, like 'hotline' and 'suspension,' that help move bills quickly through Congress, often requiring teamwork and negotiation.

On the meeting places of legislatures

0 implied HN points • 19 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislature Security Democracy Political History
  1. The Texas Capitol is impressive and has a friendly atmosphere, allowing visitors to explore freely. It's filled with Texas symbols and has a rich history shown through its art and architecture.
  2. In contrast, the U.S. Capitol has become highly secure, making it hard for visitors to access and enjoy the space. Once, people could wander freely, but now security measures have changed that.
  3. This shift to more security at the U.S. Capitol feels like a loss of openness. It makes people reflect on how public access to government buildings has changed over the years.

On the credibility of veto threats

0 implied HN points • 21 Sep 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Legislative Process Presidential Power Bipartisanship
  1. A veto threat from the President may not be credible when Congress supports the legislation with both parties, making it hard for the President to actually veto it. If a bill has a lot of support from Democrats, it seems like there's a strong agreement, and this weakens the threat of a veto.
  2. The rules set by the Budget Control Act create a chance for a bill that the President doesn't like to pass, making veto threats more believable in this situation. This means the President could potentially influence the process by threatening a veto if the legislation leans too conservative.
  3. If Congress takes actions that are seen as irresponsible, it could lead to a situation where the President would have a strong reason to veto. This might happen if Congress tries to block cuts that were agreed upon, giving the President a chance to position himself as the responsible one.

FIVE POINTS: The Three Phases of the 115th Congress

0 implied HN points • 16 Feb 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Congress Legislation Partisanship Immigration
  1. The 115th Congress went through three phases: a partisan phase where the GOP pushed its agenda, a bipartisan phase focused on cooperation, and now appears to be entering a stalemate phase with little major legislation expected.
  2. There is confusion around the DACA issue, as some believe Democrats prefer it as a campaign topic rather than pushing for a policy solution. Both parties seem to be balancing their legislative strategies with upcoming elections in mind.
  3. Gun control faces challenges because intense minority opinions, like those from the NRA, can overshadow majority support. This dynamic shows how powerful dedicated interest groups can be in influencing Congress.

On Record Sequencing

0 implied HN points • 19 Jul 10
🎶 Music Music theory Album review Song analysis Rock music Music history
  1. Some rock albums have every song getting played on the radio. Boston's first album and Led Zeppelin IV are good examples of this.
  2. The order of songs on an album can really change how people enjoy it. Great albums like Boston and Sgt. Pepper have well-thought-out song sequences.
  3. Bad song sequencing can hurt an album's success, especially if listeners miss the best songs. An example is Bruce Springsteen's Born to Run, which has a sequencing issue that many fans notice.

Born to Sequence

0 implied HN points • 27 Jul 10
🎶 Music Albums Song analysis Cultural Commentary
  1. The main story of the album 'Born to Run' is about a young man's growing disillusionment with his life and his longing to escape with someone special. It captures the struggle and feelings of wanting more from life.
  2. The five crucial songs, including 'Thunder Road' and 'Jungleland', create a cohesive narrative that reflects this journey from hope to realization of life's harsh realities.
  3. The sequencing of the songs can change the story's meaning, with 'Thunder Road' representing both an ending and a new beginning, suggesting a mix of optimism despite the darker themes in the other songs.

Elecshun Dae 2020

0 implied HN points • 02 Nov 20
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political Analysis Democracy Campaigns
  1. Don't watch TV coverage before evening results come in. It’s usually filled with pointless chatter and won't help you understand the election better.
  2. Know the electoral map really well. Understanding which states are important can help you keep track of the electoral votes needed to win the presidency.
  3. Get familiar with key Senate races and House districts. Knowing which races matter can make watching the election more interesting and meaningful.

Elections Matter

0 implied HN points • 01 Nov 20
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Public Policy Party Dynamics Congress
  1. Elections change who is in power, which means new people in Congress will have different ideas and priorities for what laws to push. This can lead to big shifts in policy.
  2. When an election ends, politicians often feel freer to make bold decisions since they don't have to worry about upcoming votes. This can lead to unexpected changes during the months after the election.
  3. The results of an election send strong signals to everyone involved in politics about what issues might work well or not. This affects not just elected officials, but also interest groups and lobbyists who will adjust their strategies based on the election outcome.

Congress, Fix the Succession Act

0 implied HN points • 28 Oct 20
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Government Succession Crisis Management Political theory
  1. The current Succession Act can create confusion during a crisis, as it lacks clear definitions for who can act as president and under what circumstances.
  2. Removing legislative officials from the line of succession and allowing the president to decide the order of cabinet succession would help stabilize the process.
  3. It's important to make these changes proactively rather than reactively because waiting for a crisis can lead to serious issues in government continuity.

The procedural statehood process, explained

0 implied HN points • 23 Oct 20
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Congress Political Process Voting Rights
  1. Puerto Rico's statehood has become a hot topic after Hurricane Maria, with many believing it could improve federal responses to disasters. There's ongoing discussion in Congress about adding Puerto Rico and Washington, DC as new states.
  2. To create a new state, Congress needs to pass a law, and the process isn't complicated. However, statehood can change political power, leading to lots of debates and negotiations over who gets admitted and how.
  3. Public support in Puerto Rico is divided about statehood, with past votes showing mixed results. Congress is unlikely to admit Puerto Rico without clear majority support from its residents in upcoming voting.

Flux Capacitor

0 implied HN points • 04 Oct 11
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Political strategy Polling Party Dynamics
  1. Chris Christie dropped out of the race, likely because he saw no viable path to winning. This opens the door for other potential candidates to make a comeback.
  2. Polls can show fluctuating support for candidates, as they often reflect changing media attention more than actual voter conviction. This could mean candidates like Herman Cain gain initial popularity but might not last.
  3. The Republican Party likely prefers safe candidates with known qualities like Mitt Romney to avoid risking their chances in the election. New or inexperienced candidates may not be seen as viable options in this context.

Not Your Father's Impeachment Inquiry

0 implied HN points • 01 Oct 19
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Impeachment Elections Congress Political strategy Public Opinion
  1. Control of Congress is divided between the parties, which affects how the impeachment inquiry unfolds. The Senate can influence the process even if the House decides to impeach.
  2. Trump is running for re-election, which changes the political strategy of the impeachment process. Both parties may act differently based on how it impacts the election.
  3. Moderate Senate Republicans hold significant power, potentially swaying the outcome of the impeachment process based on their support or opposition to Trump. Their decisions could change everything.

Justin Amash is Not a Template Easily Copied

0 implied HN points • 23 May 19
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Congress Elections Legislation Political theory Political Analysis
  1. Justin Amash is a unique politician who acts on his principles, but not every member of Congress can follow his example. It’s tough to be a principled leader when you also have to get elected.
  2. Most politicians prioritize re-election over doing what's perceived as the right thing. Local interests often clash with national goals, making it hard for them to seek broader policies.
  3. OLC opinions and IRS memos aren't laws; they're just arguments. They can influence decisions, but they don’t bind Congress or the executive branch.

Let's Get Ready To Rumble

0 implied HN points • 17 May 19
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Congress Executive Power Constitutional Law Political Conflict Public Opinion
  1. Political conflict is normal in a democracy, and we shouldn't be afraid of it. The U.S. system encourages disagreements between branches of government as a way to check power.
  2. Congress has the most control and authority, but it often faces challenges in maintaining that power. It can keep the president in check, but it struggles to fund itself properly.
  3. Public opinion is very important in political battles. Congress and the president respond to public views, using them to gain support or avoid backlash when pushing their agendas.

The National Emergency Gambit

0 implied HN points • 11 Jan 19
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Legislation Elections Partisanship
  1. The National Emergency Gambit is a strategy that's gaining traction in DC. It gives both parties a way to save face while avoiding tough negotiations on immigration.
  2. Most political candidates you hear about are already in the running during the Invisible Primary phase. They're testing support and connections even before officially announcing a campaign.
  3. Senate Democrats aren't pushing harder on the shutdown issue because they fear losing power. Their leader prefers to maintain a controlled environment rather than risk unruly debates.

Negative Agenda Setting Rules Us All

0 implied HN points • 28 Dec 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Congress Policy Political Science Elections
  1. Negative agenda setting is when lawmakers don't bring up popular bills for a vote, even if they would pass. This can keep issues that many people support off the table.
  2. The current government shutdown highlights a lack of urgency to resolve issues, with party leaders using their power to control what gets voted on, leading to inaction.
  3. On the first day of Congress, changes might happen in leadership roles and rules, as well as efforts to address the ongoing government shutdown, showing how politics continuously evolves.

We're not shutting down this newsletter!

0 implied HN points • 21 Dec 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Elections Legislation Political parties Political Analysis
  1. A government shutdown happens when Congress doesn't pass new spending laws, meaning the government can't spend money. This leads to many federal agencies stopping operations and employees being furloughed.
  2. During a shutdown, some employees, known as 'excepted' or 'essential,' still work, but they won't get paid until Congress passes new appropriations. Other employees are 'non-excepted' and are sent home without pay.
  3. The President's strength can affect how well they influence Congress and their agenda. Recent events have shown that Trump struggles to maintain support from key groups within his party, making his presidency look weaker.

How much would it cost to expand the size of the House?

0 implied HN points • 13 Nov 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Government Political Debate Congress Public Policy
  1. Expanding the House of Representatives will have significant costs, both one-time and ongoing. Each new member could cost around $2 million a year, adding up quickly.
  2. The initial costs for space and resources for new members could reach around a billion dollars. This includes the need for new buildings and additional security.
  3. While the costs may seem high, they should not stop discussions about expanding the House if there are strong reasons to do so. Political concerns might influence decisions even if the costs are justifiable.

So you want to be an amateur election forecaster? Here's step zero.

0 implied HN points • 31 Oct 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election forecasting Public Opinion Voting behavior Statistical Analysis
  1. You can start forecasting elections easily using a simple Excel simulation tool. Just change the win probabilities for Senate races, and the simulation will quickly show you different election outcomes.
  2. Good election forecasting requires gathering data and creating win probabilities, which can be a fun challenge. Getting started is much easier than you might think, so don't be intimidated.
  3. While simple models are easy to run, accurate forecasting can be more complex. Serious models account for many details in how elections work, but you can still enjoy basic modeling without being an expert.

Matt's Five Points, October 24: Not Your Father's Divided Government

0 implied HN points • 24 Oct 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Political Science Democracy Legislation
  1. Divided government in the U.S. can look different depending on which party controls the House or Senate. Each setup affects how laws get passed and how conflicts play out between the branches of government.
  2. Donald Trump is considered a weak president because he struggles to maintain political power and often backs down from his public statements. This makes it harder for him to lead effectively.
  3. The size of the Democratic majority in the House doesn't matter as much as just winning control of it. Whether they win by a few seats or a lot, they will have the same power to set the agenda and conduct investigations.

Matt's Five Points, October 19, 2018 — Constitutional Hardball

0 implied HN points • 19 Oct 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Constitutional Law Legislative Process Supreme Court Political Tactics
  1. Constitutional hardball is when legal political strategies push the boundaries of accepted norms. It can be risky, as it may lead to larger conflicts and weaken institutions like the Supreme Court.
  2. The statehood process in the U.S. is easy to manipulate and can disrupt political balance. This flexibility once caused major tensions, particularly regarding issues like slavery in the 19th century.
  3. Lame-duck sessions in Congress can actually be quite productive, with significant legislation often passing during this time. The upcoming session could see important decisions being made, especially if party control changes.

Matt's Five Points, October 12, 2018 — The Kavanaugh Circus is Democracy in Action

0 implied HN points • 16 Oct 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Party Dynamics Public Opinion
  1. The Senate confirmation process can show democratic politics really happening. It's normal for people to clash and for the public to get involved, so calling it a circus might not be fair.
  2. Term limits for the Supreme Court could actually make things more political, not less. If every election focused on Court nominations, it could overshadow other important issues.
  3. When looking at polling data, it's tricky to connect it directly to elections. Just because many people oppose something doesn't mean they'll vote based on that issue.

FIVE POINTS: The Art of the Steel

0 implied HN points • 09 Mar 18
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Elections Foreign Policy Executive Power
  1. Most of the president's power comes from laws written by Congress, not from the Constitution. This means Congress can take some powers back whenever they want.
  2. The White House often makes big decisions without consulting experts or lawmakers, which can lead to messy outcomes. This shows the importance of collaboration in policymaking.
  3. As elections approach, Congress members become more cautious about tough votes. Many of the hardest decisions may actually happen now, not in the fall when elections are coming.