The hottest Economic Indicators Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

California Home Sales Up 9.5% SA YoY in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. California home sales increased by 9.5% in October compared to the previous year, showing a strong recovery.
  2. October 2023 marked the first year-over-year gain in national existing home sales since August 2021 after a long decline.
  3. Mortgage rates, which dropped in August and September, contributed to the rise in sales, but recent increases might slow future sales.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. In October, existing home sales saw a year-over-year increase, which is the first time this has happened since August 2021. This means more people are buying homes now compared to last year.
  2. The median price of homes rose by about 4.7% compared to the same time last year, showing that homes are becoming more expensive even though sales are still low.
  3. Active inventory of homes for sale went up by 25.9% year-over-year, especially in places like Florida and Texas. This increase could impact home prices in the coming months.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. In November, existing-home sales rose to 4.15 million, marking a 4.8% increase from October. This shows a positive trend in the housing market after a long time.
  2. Median house prices went up by 4.7% compared to last year. This indicates that homes are becoming more expensive, even as sales are improving.
  3. The total housing inventory declined slightly to 1.33 million units, but it's still higher compared to last year. There's a good amount of homes available, but the sales pace keeps inventory lower than before.

Follow Up to Case-Shiller & Filtering

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The author analyzed different housing data like Case-Shiller and rent inflation. It's interesting to see how these data points relate to each other.
  2. There are components in the Erdmann Housing Tracker that provide extra insights on the housing market. Comparing these with other measurements helps to understand trends better.
  3. The analysis is not meant for academic purposes, but it's a fun exploration of the data. It shows how digging into numbers can reveal patterns.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Asking rents are pretty stable, with a slight year-over-year drop of 0.6%. This means many people are paying about the same for their apartments as they did last year.
  2. There's a lot more new apartments being built, leading to a higher vacancy rate. This increase in supply is putting pressure on rents and keeps them from rising significantly.
  3. Single-family home rents grew by 1.7% last year but are showing signs of slowing down. Overall, rent growth is not as high as it used to be, indicating a cooling market.
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Investing Update: Has Sentiment Shifted? 

Spilled Coffee • 32 implied HN points • 18 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market had a positive week, with notable gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow indexes. This followed a strong inflation report that boosted investor confidence.
  2. Inflation is still a concern, with recent CPI readings showing slight increases. The new presidential administration will face challenges related to managing this inflation.
  3. Hedge funds performed well in 2024, with many beating the S&P 500's strong return. Personal portfolio gains were significantly high, leading to discussions about future investment strategies.

What's The Bear Case For Stocks?

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market is doing really well right now, with many people feeling optimistic, but that can lead to risks if everyone thinks only good things will happen.
  2. Valuations for stocks are at historic highs, which means they might be overpriced and could face a correction soon.
  3. The rising cost of the national debt is a big concern that could impact the economy and market stability in the future.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Inflation-adjusted house prices are now 1.3% lower than their peak in 2022. This means homes cost less when you account for inflation.
  2. Real house prices, which consider the effects of inflation, are still quite high compared to the past. They are about 11% above the peak during the housing bubble in 2006.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is also lower than its peak. This suggests that buying homes may be more favorable compared to renting right now.

New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 610,000 Annual Rate in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. New home sales dropped sharply to an annual rate of 610,000 in October, which is a significant decrease from previous months. This decline might be linked to recent hurricanes affecting certain areas.
  2. The median price of new homes has decreased by 5% from its peak, which is partly due to the types of homes being sold. This suggests a shift in the market's composition.
  3. There is a notable increase in the months of supply for new homes, now at 9.5 months, indicating a bigger inventory than usual. More completed homes are available compared to recent years, especially since the pandemic.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. New home listings rose slightly by 2% in November compared to last year, but they are still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  2. The increase in listings was fueled by lower mortgage rates, but higher rates are now reducing new sellers coming into the market.
  3. December and January are typically slow months for new home listings, so we can expect fewer homes to be listed in the near future.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in September

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Serious delinquency rates for single-family homes slightly increased in September. This means a small rise in the number of homeowners who are late on their mortgage payments.
  2. Multi-family delinquency rates also went up, hitting levels not seen since 2011. This points to more challenges for those managing multiple rental units.
  3. Despite the increases, overall delinquency rates remain below pre-pandemic lows. This suggests that the housing market is still stronger than it was during the worst of the pandemic.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 28 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up by 3.9% over the last year, showing that home prices are generally on the rise again.
  2. Many cities in Florida are experiencing significant price declines, with four of the six cities having the largest drops in home values.
  3. As housing inventory grows and sales remain low, it's expected that the growth in home prices could slow down in 2025.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Existing home sales increased in October, marking the first year-over-year gain since August 2021. This is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. Sales were estimated to be at an annual rate of 3.97 million, which is a 3.4% increase from September. This shows a gradual recovery in home buying activity.
  3. The increase in home sales could indicate a shift in the market, possibly making it a better time for buyers and sellers to engage in real estate transactions.

New Home Sales Increase to 627,000 Annual Rate in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 24 Jul 25
💼 Business Economic Indicators
  1. New home sales rose to an annual rate of 627,000 in June, which is a small increase from May but still lower than a year ago.
  2. The supply of new homes for sale is around 9.8 months, indicating there are more homes available than usual.
  3. The inventory of completed homes is much higher than it was in early 2022, suggesting an increase in housing options for buyers.

Framing the Homebuilders

The Last Bear Standing • 22 implied HN points • 07 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The housing market has been tough since 2020, but demand for new construction has helped homebuilders make profits.
  2. Recently, homebuilding stocks have lost some of their gains, and new home inventory is starting to pile up.
  3. A close look at the biggest homebuilders reveals surprising winners and losers in the current market.

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 4th, 2024

Alex's Personal Blog • 32 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. This week has a packed economic calendar with important earnings reports coming from big companies like New York Times and Qualcomm.
  2. The U.S. elections are on Tuesday, which could distract from other economic updates but are still very important.
  3. Thursday is crucial as the Federal Reserve will announce their decision on interest rates, along with jobless claims data and several company earnings.

Watch Months-of-Supply!

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Watch the months-of-supply to help predict housing prices. It can show us if prices might go up or down.
  2. Currently, both home inventory and sales are lower than they were before the pandemic.
  3. The months-of-supply is higher than in 2019, which could lead to changes in the housing market soon.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. House prices in the U.S. increased by 3.6% over the past year, according to the Case-Shiller National House Price Index. This suggests that home values are generally rising.
  2. In October, prices went up by 0.35% from the previous month, marking the 21st straight month of increases. Most major cities saw price growth, but some cities like San Francisco have seen declines from their peaks.
  3. Although house prices continue to rise, the rate of growth is slowing down compared to previous years. Factors like high mortgage rates and low inventory are affecting affordability.

In Q2, almost 20% of Units Started Built-for-Rent were Single Family

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
💼 Business Economic Indicators
  1. In the second quarter of 2024, nearly 20% of new rental units were single-family homes. This shows a growing interest in single-family rentals.
  2. The number of single-family units built-for-rent has almost doubled since 2020, indicating a trend towards more single-family developments.
  3. While multi-family rental units saw a big drop, single-family units are becoming a bigger part of the rental market, signaling a shift in housing demand.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Existing home sales increased in November, reaching an annual rate of 4.09 million. This is a 3.3% increase from October and 4.6% higher than last November.
  2. The median price for existing single-family homes went up by about 5.3% compared to last year. This suggests a growing demand in the housing market.
  3. There is ongoing discussion about the 'neutral' interest rate, which affects how restrictive monetary policy is. Recent economic growth may lead to higher estimates of this rate among officials.

Single Family Starts Up 22% Year-over-year in January; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 16 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Single-family housing starts were up 22% year-over-year in January, while multi-family starts experienced a significant decrease.
  2. There was an overall decrease in total housing starts in January, although November and December numbers were revised up.
  3. Permits held up better than starts in January, with likely impacts from severe weather last month.

📈 The Stock Market is NOT the Economy

UnfairNation by Ehsan Zaffar • 7 implied HN points • 22 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market does not reflect how everyday people are doing. While stocks might rise, people's real-life finances can still be tough.
  2. Most stock wealth is held by a small percentage of Americans, meaning the stock market mainly shows the rich's mood, not everyone's financial health.
  3. We need better ways to measure a strong economy, focusing on things like affordable living, fair wages, and student debt, instead of just stock prices.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October; Up 3.7% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up 3.7% compared to last year, showing a steady increase in home prices.
  2. Florida has many cities experiencing large price declines, with 18 out of the top 35 cities affected.
  3. If more houses are available for sale and sales remain low, we might see a slowdown in home price growth early next year.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.96 million SAAR in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Existing-home sales rose to 3.96 million in October, marking a 3.4% increase from September and the first yearly rise since July 2021. This shows a positive trend in the housing market.
  2. Median home prices increased by 4.0% compared to last year, which suggests that despite more inventory, homes are still getting more expensive.
  3. Inventory of homes for sale is up 19.1% compared to last year, indicating more options for buyers, although the months of supply is higher than in pre-pandemic times.

The Volatility Divergence

The Last Bear Standing • 22 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Implied volatility has been rising even as stock prices remain strong. This means that while investors are confident, they are also anticipating potential future risks.
  2. The current divergence between high volatility expectations and low actual volatility is unusual. It's rare for stock prices to be high while at the same time expecting more volatility.
  3. There are concerns in the market about various factors like corporate earnings and macroeconomic issues. These worries might not be reflected in stock prices right now, but they're still influencing how investors are pricing risk.

25 Stocks I'm Watching For 2025: Part 2

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 18 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. It’s important to look at market trends and themes for the upcoming year. This helps in choosing the right stocks to watch.
  2. Last year's stock picks didn't perform as well as the S&P 500, showing that not all investments roped in big gains.
  3. Identifying potential stocks early can provide insight for making better investment decisions in the future.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Existing-home sales have decreased to 4.08 million in January, which is a drop of 4.9% from the previous month, but it's still a 2.0% increase compared to January 2024.
  2. The housing inventory is rising, reaching 1.18 million units, up 16.8% from last year, which shows there is more supply available than before the pandemic.
  3. Despite the drop in sales, this is the fourth consecutive month with year-over-year increases, suggesting some positive trends in the market.

Let me know if you intend to go to the movies this weekend

Klement on Investing • 1 implied HN point • 12 Dec 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Higher box office revenues often show up when investor sentiment is weakening, and they can act as an early warning of poorer stock market returns.
  2. This may happen because people choose cheaper entertainment like movies when money is tight, or because they look for escapism when they feel gloomy.
  3. The relationship might be spurious and could change as streaming replaces theatre-going, so it’s risky to rely on box office as a reliable signal going forward.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Local housing markets saw their first year-over-year sales increase since August 2021. This is a positive sign for the real estate industry.
  2. The data includes comparisons to October 2019, showing how current markets stack up against pre-pandemic times.
  3. Over 40 local housing markets across the US are being tracked for this analysis. This gives a broad view of housing trends in different regions.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. House prices have been steadily increasing, showing a 3.6% rise year-over-year as of October and continued growth is expected.
  2. There has been a consistent upward trend in house prices, with a 0.35% monthly increase noted, marking the 21st month of growth.
  3. The outlook for house prices in 2025 remains uncertain, with various factors influencing future changes in the housing market.

Predict a Mockingbird: November Week-2

The Parlour • 17 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Companies can show strong or weak financial health based on key metrics like cash flow and profitability. This helps investors decide where to put their money.
  2. Insider trading activities can hint at stock movements. If insiders are buying, it might be a good sign, but heavy selling could be a warning.
  3. Using tools like search interest and news sentiment helps track how a company is viewed in the market. Positive buzz can mean good things for stock performance.

Investing Update: Hedge Fund Buys & Holdings

Spilled Coffee • 16 implied HN points • 23 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market is doing really well recently, with all major indices up for the week. The S&P 500 is up 25.1% and the Nasdaq is leading with a 26.6% increase this year.
  2. Historically, there's a trend of market rallies during November and towards the end of the year. Many investors are looking forward to a possible Thanksgiving rally and the annual Santa Claus Rally ahead.
  3. Some data shows that less than half of the S&P 500 stocks are trending up, which could indicate some weakness. However, the current low percentage of large-cap stocks down 20% or more suggests investors are still optimistic.

Investing Update: Signs Of A Market Top?

Spilled Coffee • 16 implied HN points • 16 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The S&P 500 reached its 51st all-time high this year, showing strong market performance. However, it ended the week lower, with declines seen across major stock indices.
  2. Inflation is stabilizing, with recent data showing it remains under control. Wage gains have also outpaced inflation for the past 18 months, which is good news for consumers.
  3. Post-election market surges are common, and this trend has continued in 2024. Historically, stock markets tend to do well under a unified government, which seems to be the case now.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same year over year, with a slight decrease of about 0.7%. This means that renting is a bit cheaper now than it was last year.
  2. There are more rental apartments available now, which has led to a higher vacancy rate of 6.8%. This increase in supply is likely to keep rents from rising quickly.
  3. Single-family home rents did see a small increase of 2.4% year over year, but this is the slowest growth seen in some time. It suggests that rent prices in general are stabilizing.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💼 Business Economic Indicators
  1. Existing-home sales rose to 4.24 million in December, showing a 2.2% increase from November. This marks a positive trend after several months of decline.
  2. The median house price reached a record high of $407,500, reflecting a 6% increase from the previous year. This indicates that homes are becoming more expensive.
  3. Total housing inventory decreased to 1.15 million units, suggesting a tighter market. While inventory is down from last month, it has gone up 16.2% compared to last year.

Investing Update: Don't Forget This Chart

Spilled Coffee • 12 implied HN points • 12 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The S&P 500 has had a strong performance this year, with 45 new all-time highs and the best start since 2000. This means the market is doing really well right now.
  2. Despite the market's successes, only 54% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 20-day moving average. This is a bit low and worth keeping an eye on.
  3. With recent jobless claims rising more than expected, it could influence the Fed's decisions on interest rates. Many experts still believe there will be a rate cut soon.

Investing Update: Q4 Top Ideas & Q3 Recap

Spilled Coffee • 12 implied HN points • 05 Oct 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market has been doing really well, with the S&P 500 seeing a strong start this year. It's the best start since 1997, which is exciting for investors.
  2. In the third quarter, the S&P 500 had its best performance since 2020, and many stocks outperformed the index. This shows healthy growth and optimism in the market.
  3. Certain sectors like utilities are doing great, while energy stocks are lagging behind. It's important to pay attention to these trends when investing.

Clouded Judgement 12.27.24 - 2024 Year End Review

Clouded Judgement • 8 implied HN points • 27 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. In 2024, the median multiple for cloud software stocks was 6.1x, showing stability throughout the year. This means that software companies were valued similarly at the beginning and end of the year.
  2. Only a few companies had impressive growth, with just 3 companies increasing over 100% in stock price. Most companies had mild performance, with half going up and half going down.
  3. Key companies like Cloudflare, CrowdStrike, and Datadog consistently ranked in the top ten for valuation multiples. This shows their strong market position over the past few years.

Data Update 1 for 2022: It is Moneyball Time!

Musings on Markets • 19 implied HN points • 08 Jan 22
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Having a lot of data isn't always helpful. Sometimes, too much information can make it harder to make good decisions.
  2. Just because everyone thinks something is right doesn't mean it is. Crowds can be wrong, so it's important to think critically about popular opinions.
  3. Using data effectively requires understanding and skill. Knowing how to read the data properly can help you make better investment choices.