The hottest Economic Indicators Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics

The Times They Are A'Tricky

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 63 implied HN points • 25 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Regional housing sales and construction trends may not be as useful as they seem. The data can be confusing and may not reflect the real situation on the ground.
  2. New home inventory is increasing, which usually signals potential discounts in the market. But some believe it could lead to a recession.
  3. Home prices are significantly higher than they should be and may need to drop around 40% to reach normal levels. This presents both risks and opportunities for builders and investors.

Asking Rents Soft Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 03 Dec 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Asking rents have been decreasing recently, with some areas seeing a drop of 1.1% over the past year. This trend shows that the rental market is facing challenges.
  2. Vacancy rates for multifamily homes are high, sitting at a record 7.2%. This means there are more empty rental units than before, which can put more downward pressure on rents.
  3. While single-family rent prices are still higher overall, their growth rate is slowing down. This could be beneficial for renters who are struggling to keep up with rising costs.

Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 9 implied HN points • 24 Dec 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. National house prices were mostly flat in 2025 with small year‑over‑year gains around 1–2%, so the outlook for 2026 is uncertain.
  2. Short‑term indicators (Case‑Shiller, Freddie Mac, NAR median) show only slight month‑to‑month gains and suggest year‑over‑year changes will likely stay in that small range or edge down in the near term.
  3. Supply and demand are the key drivers and there are big regional differences — areas with high inventory and rising months‑of‑supply could see local price declines even if the national average remains flat.

Drawdowns Will Happen

Spilled Coffee • 48 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Drawdowns in investments are inevitable, meaning at some point, your portfolio will likely drop in value. This happens to every investor, so be ready for it.
  2. Long-term investing often includes dealing with painful drawdowns, which can test your patience and confidence in your strategy. It's important to not allow fear to make you question your decisions during these times.
  3. To prepare for drawdowns, have cash on hand, understand your investment timeline, and base your decisions on how much risk you can handle. Remember, volatility is a normal part of investing.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in June; Up 2.0% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index dropped by 0.20% month-over-month in June, showing a consistent decline over the last few months. This suggests that house prices are under pressure right now.
  2. Year-over-year, the index is up 2.0%, but this is a decrease from 2.3% in May, indicating that the growth rate is slowing down.
  3. Punta Gorda, Florida is now the worst-performing city for house prices, with many cities, especially in Florida, experiencing significant declines from their previous highs.
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Investing Update: All-Time Highs Here To Stay?

Spilled Coffee • 52 implied HN points • 28 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, has reached new all-time highs, marking significant growth since April. It's surprising how quickly things have improved.
  2. Many expected a tougher market, but predictions like identifying a bottom at the S&P 500’s 4,835 mark turned out to be correct. This shows how important it is to trust analysis.
  3. History suggests that if the S&P 500 performs well in May and June, it tends to continue rising through the rest of the year. July has been particularly strong over the last decade.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 26 Aug 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The national house price index has increased by 1.9% over the past year as of June. This is a sign of slow growth compared to previous months.
  2. Some cities like San Francisco and Phoenix have seen a decline in house prices from their recent peaks. This indicates a shift in the housing market dynamics.
  3. Despite a general increase in house prices year-over-year, the data shows significant volatility. Some areas are performing much better than others, with traditional markets gaining ground.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 11 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Closed home sales in May decreased by 3.9% compared to last year, which indicates a continuing downward trend in the housing market.
  2. New listings of homes increased by 10.2% year-over-year, but they're still lower than the levels seen in May 2019.
  3. Active inventory is rising significantly, with an increase of 36.9% compared to last year, showing more options for buyers this spring.

Investing Update: Record Highs Here To Stay?

Spilled Coffee • 84 implied HN points • 25 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market has reached new all-time highs after a rough start to January, showing strong growth. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow have all seen gains already in the new year.
  2. There is a clear uptrend in the market as more stocks are moving upward, indicating a bull market. Historically, new highs in the market often ensure continued growth.
  3. Investor sentiment shifted from bearish to more positive as the market bounced back. When many investors lean towards negativity, it often leads to a rebound in optimism.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.7% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 33 implied HN points • 26 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Inflation-adjusted house prices are currently 1.7% below their peak in 2022, meaning they have slightly decreased recently.
  2. When considering the price-to-rent ratio, this is also 8.8% lower than it was at the peak last year, indicating changes in housing affordability.
  3. Overall, while house prices are historically high, they remain about 10.9% above the peak levels from the previous housing bubble.

Investing Update: Any Fuel Left In This Rally?

Spilled Coffee • 28 implied HN points • 19 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The stock market is doing really well, with the S&P 500 reaching new highs and showing significant growth this year.
  2. Inflation rates are stable, with recent numbers coming in lower than expected, which is a positive sign for the economy.
  3. There's a lot of interest in tech stocks that have lagged behind lately, and people are paying close attention to ETF investments, especially in crypto.

Investing Update: 5 Stocks For The 2nd Half

Spilled Coffee • 28 implied HN points • 12 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have both risen over 6% this year, showing a strong market trend. This means that many investors are feeling positive about their stocks.
  2. Recent data indicates a bullish outlook, with higher levels of risk-on sentiment. This suggests that investors are more willing to take risks in the stock market right now.
  3. Historically, when the S&P 500 rises 5-10% by mid-year, the second half of the year tends to be strong. This gives investors a reason to feel confident going forward.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Declined in May; Up 2.2% Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index dropped by 0.23% in May but is still up 2.2% compared to last year. This shows that while prices are currently declining, there has been some growth over the past year.
  2. Florida and Texas are experiencing significant price declines, with 17 out of the 30 cities with the biggest drops located in these states. This trend indicates that real estate markets in these areas are facing challenges.
  3. Overall, 31 states and Washington D.C. have seen house prices fall since their peak. With inventory increasing and low sales, housing price growth may slow down even more in the future.

California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 4th Straight Month

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 20 Aug 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. California home sales have dropped for the fourth month in a row, going down by 4.1% compared to last year. This shows a clear slowdown in the housing market.
  2. The median home price in California also fell for the third month straight, reaching a low of $884,050. This drop is unusual for this time of year and suggests that fewer people are buying homes.
  3. Active listings of homes for sale are at a 69-month high, increasing by 37.7% from a year ago. However, the rate of new listings is slowing down, which could indicate a shift in the market.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 57 implied HN points • 14 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The National Association of Realtors will report on January home sales, which are expected to decrease. People are anticipating a drop from December's sales figures.
  2. In January 2024, home sales were reported at around 4.00 million, showing a trend in sales that people are keeping an eye on.
  3. Data comparisons from January 2019 will also be included, helping to understand how the market has changed over time.

New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 28 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. New home sales in May 2025 dropped to an annual rate of 623,000, which is lower than previous months and last year.
  2. There is an increase in the supply of new homes available, with nearly 10 months' worth of inventory on the market, which is much higher than normal.
  3. The prices of new homes have decreased, with a 7% drop from the peak, partly due to a change in the types of homes being sold.

My Portfolio Breakdown

Spilled Coffee • 72 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The author's portfolio has increased by 52.10% in 2024, showing strong performance. It's great to see a significant growth in investments like this.
  2. For 2024, this might be the sixth time in eight years that the portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500. It indicates a consistent strategy that works well over time.
  3. The author is sharing the current portfolio details exclusively with paid subscribers. It's a way to provide more in-depth insights for those who are more engaged.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 14 Aug 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The housing market has seen a big increase in inventory this year, with listings up 24.8% compared to last year. This means buyers have more options now.
  2. Sales of existing homes are down slightly, creating pressure on prices, but there won't be a massive increase in distressed sales.
  3. New homebuilders are facing challenges with many unsold homes and are lowering prices to compete with the existing inventory.

Top 5 financial posts of the trading week 8/2024

Global Markets Investor • 19 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Weekly performance update: Last week saw significant increases in major US indexes, VIX volatility, Bitcoin, and gold. Nvidia stood out with a 9% rise after surpassing earnings and guidance expectations.
  2. Nvidia's remarkable growth: Nvidia's market cap doubled to $2 trillion in just 8 months, making it the third largest US company. Its outstanding revenue forecast and stock performance pose a question about its future success.
  3. Chinese market support and US bank debts: Chinese authorities are propping up their stock market, while major US banks are facing challenges with bad property debt surpassing loss reserves. Keep an eye on US government bond yields and PCE inflation data for potential impacts on various markets.

The Market Is Puking Back Good News

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 19 implied HN points • 31 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Meta and Microsoft reported strong earnings, surprising many with better-than-expected results. However, despite this good news, the stock market started to drop after an initial rise.
  2. The market is showing signs of stress, particularly because a few large companies dominate it. If their stock prices fall, the whole market could be affected significantly.
  3. Valuation matters just as much as earnings. Even with good earnings reports, if investors feel prices are too high, they may start selling off stocks.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
💼 Business Economic Indicators
  1. Existing-home sales rose by 0.8% in May compared to April, but they are still down 0.7% from last year. This trend indicates a mixed market performance.
  2. The total housing inventory increased significantly, showing a rise of 20.3% year-over-year. More choices for buyers could ease some pressure on the market.
  3. The months of unsold inventory went up to 4.6 months, which means houses are staying on the market longer. This level is higher than before the pandemic, suggesting a shift in buyer demand.

New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 26 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. New home sales dropped to an annual rate of 657,000 in January, marking a decline from previous months. This shows a slowdown in the housing market compared to last year.
  2. The average price of new homes has decreased by 5.8% from its highest point due to changes in what types of homes are selling.
  3. There is a high inventory of homes available, with a supply of 9 months, which is more than the usual range of 4 to 6 months. This indicates more choices for buyers but also suggests a slower market.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in June

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
💼 Business Economic Indicators
  1. In June, home sales were up 4.7% compared to last year, marking a recovery from the previous month's drop. More working days in June helped boost these numbers.
  2. New listings have increased by 5.0% year-over-year, but they are still lower than levels from June 2019. This indicates a mixed trend in the market.
  3. Inventory levels rose by 26.2% compared to last year, suggesting that more homes are becoming available. This change is happening more than usually expected for this time of year.

Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 23 implied HN points • 17 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Builder sentiment in the housing market is low, reaching one of the lowest levels since 2012. This means builders are feeling less confident about selling new homes.
  2. There has been a noticeable increase in price incentives from builders as the housing market slows down. This suggests they are trying to attract buyers who might be hesitant.
  3. Overall, the housing market is softening, which could impact future construction and development plans.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in January

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 17 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Existing home sales are predicted to be around 4.09 million for January, showing a slight drop from December but an increase from last year.
  2. The average sale price for homes has risen about 5% compared to a year ago, indicating a continuing trend in increasing home values.
  3. The expected real interest rates have returned to levels similar to before the financial crisis, suggesting a more stable economic outlook.

1.73 million Total Housing Completions in 2024 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2006

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 47 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
💼 Business Economic Indicators
  1. In 2024, there were 1.73 million housing completions, which is the highest since 2006. This means more homes are now finished and ready for people.
  2. Completions increased by 12.5% compared to the previous year. This is a good sign for the housing market as more homes are being built.
  3. Even without counting manufactured homes, there were still around 1.63 million completions in 2024. This shows a strong upward trend in housing development.

New Home Sales Increase to 698,000 Annual Rate in December

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. New home sales in December 2024 hit 698,000, which is a good increase from the previous months. This suggests the housing market is showing some positive movement.
  2. The median price of new homes has dropped by 7.2% from its peak. This could make new homes more affordable for buyers.
  3. There are currently about 8.5 months of new home supply available, which is higher than the normal range. This means there are lots of homes for buyers to choose from.

Investing Update: Why Are Investors Scared?

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently bounced back, showing positive growth for 2025, with the S&P just shy of an all-time high. This is encouraging for investors looking for potential gains.
  2. Despite the positive market performance, more than 40% of stocks aren't above their 200-day average, indicating some underlying struggles. This is something to keep an eye on.
  3. A historical trend suggests that when the S&P 500 is up over 3% by Valentine's Day, it tends to finish the year strong. This year follows that pattern, creating optimism for many investors.

California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in January; 4th Look at Local Housing Markets

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. California home sales fell by 1.9% in January compared to last year. This drop marks the first year-over-year decline in eight months.
  2. The median price for homes in California decreased from December but is still 6.3% higher than a year ago. This shows mixed signs in the housing market.
  3. Inventory of homes for sale increased significantly, up 27.4% year-over-year. More homes are available now, which could change the dynamics of the market.

3 Stocks I Have My Eye On

Spilled Coffee • 40 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. The author is watching three different stocks, each in a unique situation. One stock is doing very well and hitting all-time highs.
  2. Another stock is currently at a multi-year low, indicating it might be a good buying opportunity.
  3. The third stock is slowly recovering from a significant drop and showing signs of improvement, suggesting it could be turning around.

6 things to know about the stock market.

Jon’s Newsletter • 99 implied HN points • 05 Oct 22
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Bear markets can last a long time, often around 19 months, and stocks need to regain previous highs to be considered out of a bear market.
  2. Stocks usually don't hit their lowest point until interest rates come down, which is expected around April 2023.
  3. It's tricky to predict the right time to buy or sell stocks; missing key market days can hurt your long-term returns, historically reducing gains significantly.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same compared to last year. Recently, there's been a slight downward trend, but rents are still high compared to earlier years.
  2. The number of available rental units is increasing, leading to more options for renters. This rise in supply is helping to keep rents stable and pressures on affordability.
  3. Single-family rent growth is at its lowest in over 14 years. Even though rent increases are slowing, demand for rentals is expected to remain strong due to job and wage growth.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.0% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 30 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently about 2% lower than their peak in 2022. This means people may find better deals on homes than before.
  2. The price-to-rent ratio is down by 9.3% since the peak in 2022. It suggests that renting may be more cost-effective compared to buying right now.
  3. Historically, house prices tend to increase over time, but real prices being above past bubbles shows that it's still a complicated market for buyers.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.3% year-over-year in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 14 implied HN points • 29 Jul 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. In May, the national house prices increased by 2.3% compared to last year. This shows the market is still growing, but the growth is slowing down.
  2. The数据显示，房价在5月出现了连续三个月的月度下降. This means the prices are going down a bit after rising for a while.
  3. Some cities are seeing bigger drops, like San Francisco, where prices fell 8.2%. This suggests that not all areas are doing well in the housing market.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 19 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Existing home sales in May are estimated to be around 4.03 million, a slight increase from April but a small drop from last year. It's important to watch how these numbers change over time.
  2. The median price for single-family homes in May went up by only 1% compared to last year. Prices varied by region, with some areas seeing slight increases or decreases.
  3. The National Association of Realtors will release official sales data soon, which will give a clearer picture of the housing market.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.1% Below 2022 Peak

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 38 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.1% lower than their peak in 2022. This shows that even when prices rise, the increase may not match inflation.
  2. The price-to-rent index is also lower than its 2022 peak by 7.8%. This means it might be cheaper to rent compared to buying right now.
  3. National house prices are historically high, being 11.6% above the previous housing bubble peak. However, price growth may slow down in the near future.

The thing about stocks and interest rates…

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 06 Mar 23
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. Interest rates are a big deal for the stock market, and higher rates can make investors nervous about how companies will perform. Stock prices might drop if rates keep rising.
  2. Although stocks have bounced back from lows, past market losses have affected confidence. Some experts think the economy is in decent shape, which could help weather rate increases.
  3. Bear markets usually last a while after the last rate hike, suggesting tough times ahead. But this bear market started before the first rate hike, which is something to consider for those hoping for a quicker recovery.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

CalculatedRisk Newsletter • 43 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. November home sales are expected to show a slight increase compared to October, with forecasts at 3.97 million annually. This is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. This marks the second year-over-year gain in home sales since July 2021, indicating a potential recovery in the market.
  3. The data will be released by the NAR on December 19th, offering insight into how the housing market is currently performing.

November 2024 New Home Sales

Erdmann Housing Tracker • 42 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Economic Indicators
  1. New home sales are low, but this is not always a bad sign. It could mean there's room for growth in the market.
  2. There's a high inventory of homes available, giving buyers more options. This can lead to better deals for those looking to purchase.
  3. Having a lot of homes for sale can create competition and could eventually lead to a more balanced housing market. It's important to watch how this evolves.