The hottest Foreign Policy Substack posts right now

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Zero-sum economics keeps failing

Noahpinion • 37530 implied HN points • 18 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The economy isn’t a fixed lump of resources to be simply divided; growing the pie matters more than slicing it.
  2. Policies based on zero-sum thinking—like mass deportations, protectionist tariffs, or seizing resources—often fail to deliver the promised jobs or wealth and can hurt domestic workers and industries.
  3. Sustained prosperity comes from production, innovation, and turning resources into useful goods and services, while redistribution or seizure without creating value can make places poorer.

The TACO trade meets the fog of war

Silver Bulletin • 618 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Counting on a leader to always chicken out is a risky strategy. When someone usually faces few consequences, they’re more likely to take bold or reckless actions.
  2. Markets don’t act like a single rational player, so the idea that market panic will reliably force policy reversals (the “Trump put”) is unstable. Market behavior can be chaotic, uncoordinated, and sometimes escalate rather than deter.
  3. War in the Middle East is a multilateral fog-of-war problem with many actors who can change the dynamics. That makes outcomes, like oil shocks or unintended escalation, much harder to predict and potentially irreversible.

Support for Israel in the US Has Collapsed, Radically — and Finally — Opening the Debate

Glenn Greenwald • 3892 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. For decades U.S. politics treated support for Israel as an unbreakable bipartisan consensus, but that consensus has now collapsed.
  2. Public opinion has shifted sharply, with most demographic groups — especially younger Americans — now sympathizing more with Palestinians than Israelis.
  3. U.S. military involvement alongside Israel has escalated into dangerous strikes against Iran and other targets, risking a wider regional war and fueling growing domestic opposition.

Tucker Carlson Fails His Own Loyalty Test

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 718 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. A prominent commentator says the CIA read his texts and may be preparing criminal charges because he talked to people in Iran before a military operation.
  2. If true, surveilling a broadcaster or using laws like FARA to punish routine contacts with foreign sources would be alarming and could threaten free speech and press protections.
  3. He frequently questions other Americans’ loyalty, so insisting he’s being framed as a foreign agent exposes a clear hypocrisy and undercuts his own arguments.

THE SWAMP LOG - Boots On The Ground? Hegseth Just Might, Noem In The Gravel Pit, Bridge's 180

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 2213 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The Secretary of War has repeatedly dodged whether U.S. ground troops will be needed in Iran, saying only “we just might,” which leaves the public unsure about possible troop deployments.
  2. Top military leaders have been doing frequent public briefings, but officials are withholding specifics under the claim of operational security.
  3. The IAEA says Iran’s highly enriched uranium is buried in underground sites reportedly struck by Operation Midnight Hammer, raising real questions about how that material will actually be secured.
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Opposing "Both Sides" In This War Is Crazy Imperialist Nonsense, And Other Notes

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 1806 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. If you live under a western empire, don’t amplify 'both sides are bad' or regime‑change narratives; use your voice to oppose your own government’s role in the war.
  2. Bashing the Iranian regime right now helps manufacture consent for violence and makes you partly responsible for the suffering it causes, without improving rights for people there.
  3. This escalation was predictable — tearing up the JCPOA and leaning on regional allies made war more likely, so strikes, mine threats to the Strait of Hormuz, and wider fallout should have been anticipated.

Trump: Iran War Is an Open-Ended, Regime-Change War, Followed by Nation-Building

Glenn Greenwald • 3035 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The president has framed the conflict as an open-ended regime-change war followed by nation-building and says he wants a key role in approving Iran’s next leaders, even if it takes months or longer.
  2. Supporters are using familiar war-propaganda tactics — denying it’s a real war, promising a quick campaign, and recycling Iraq-era arguments — while the fighting has already included heavy strikes and civilian deaths.
  3. The war carries big economic costs and raises the risk of retaliatory violence at home and abroad, and it has pushed the administration into alignment with hawkish allies and warmongers rather than isolationist promises.

Has the Russian offensive in Ukraine stalled?

Comment is Freed • 132 implied HN points • 21 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The war in the Middle East has shifted global attention and resources, pushed oil prices up, and eased sanctions in ways that give Russia a financial windfall and make Western support for Ukraine harder to sustain.
  2. Ukraine has survived a tough winter, is holding its lines, and its long-range strikes and drone-defence expertise are causing real damage to Russian logistics and could become an exportable strength, but Kyiv worries about dwindling Western stocks and political reluctance to help.
  3. Russia’s offensive has been slow and costly, and while Putin still bets on eventual gains, it’s unclear the spring campaign can produce decisive breakthroughs — he may get limited forward movement, but not guaranteed victory.

The Attacks on Free Speech in the West to Protect Israel: on Tucker Carlson's Program

Glenn Greenwald • 552 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Free speech in Western democracies is being aggressively eroded to stop criticism of Israel and its supporters.
  2. Governments, institutions, and social pressures are increasingly used to silence dissent, and this trend is rapid and widespread.
  3. These free-speech fights are tied to geopolitical developments, including growing tensions involving Trump, Netanyahu, and conflicts with Iran.

Neck Deep In The Big Muddy

John’s Substack • 7 implied HN points • 24 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The decision not to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure averted an immediate and dangerous escalation.
  2. Despite avoiding strikes, the situation remains grim because the US still has no viable exit strategy.
  3. Further escalation would be a recipe for disaster since Iran currently holds the stronger hand in this confrontation.

Roundup #76: Great Powers acting stupid

Noahpinion • 24882 implied HN points • 26 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Political movements that flout the law and reject scientific expertise are causing deadly enforcement actions and undermining public health. This anti‑science stance is also driving vaccine hesitancy and weakening biomedical research and innovation.
  2. A sweeping purge of senior military leaders concentrates power but removes experienced commanders, risking instability and reducing military effectiveness. That personalistic control could hurt long‑term strategic strength and decision‑making.
  3. India is rapidly building scientific capacity and electrification industries, positioning itself to become a major global electrotech manufacturer. Its large domestic market and supportive policies give it a good chance to leapfrog other powers.

Fuck Everyone Who Made This War Possible

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 4805 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The US and Israel have launched a major military attack on Iran, prompting retaliatory strikes and likely causing widespread death and suffering.
  2. Many people see the official reasons for this war as false and believe powerful leaders and institutions are pushing it forward regardless of public consent or the horrific consequences.
  3. There is raw anger and total condemnation directed at the US, Israel, political parties, the media, and the military‑industrial complex, who are being blamed for enabling and profiting from the war.

The US Soldiers Killed In This War Were Not Heroes, And Other Notes

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2514 implied HN points • 07 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The US soldiers killed in the Iran war did not die defending ordinary Americans but advancing elite geostrategic interests. Calling them heroes encourages recruitment and falsely frames an aggressive, harmful war as righteous.
  2. Leaders keep promising quick endings while military planners are preparing for a protracted conflict lasting months; don’t trust rosy, short-timeline assurances.
  3. Left-wing resistance has been weakened by pro-regime-change voices and diaspora figures pushing for bombing, but people should not defer to those voices or be silenced. Those who ask for their homeland to be bombed don’t grasp the real horrors it brings, so strong public opposition is needed.

Donald Trump Says You Can’t Negotiate with Terrorists

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 510 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The U.S. is trying to internationalize its conflict with Iran by rallying other countries to keep the strategic Strait of Hormuz open and safe.
  2. Trump is pushing a hardline stance that you can’t negotiate with terrorists, framing Iran’s attacks on shipping as unacceptable and non‑negotiable.
  3. Many media outlets portray this as Trump scrambling after failing to foresee Iran’s attacks and their impact on oil markets, though that simple incompetence narrative is disputed given how the war has actually unfolded.

Trump Announces A Sort Of Cease Fire, and, The US Strategic Goal Seems To Be "Mowing The Grass"

Phillips’s Newsletter • 186 implied HN points • 23 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The US lacks a clear, consistent strategic goal and seems to be practicing “mowing the grass.” That means repeated, limited strikes without a path to decisive victory, making the campaign costly and purposeless.
  2. A short cease-fire announcement looks like a tactical backtrack to avoid extreme actions and calm markets, but it probably only pauses operations rather than ends the conflict.
  3. This approach effectively guarantees the Iranian regime survives and can rebuild smarter, so regime change is off the table and strategic gains are doubtful.

This Is Even Dumber And Crazier Than The Iraq War

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2728 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The current campaign against Iran is even more reckless and cynical than the Iraq invasion, with leaders often not pretending to have sincere humanitarian or democratic motives.
  2. Those pushing the attack are using obvious lies and atrocity propaganda to justify bombing, aiming to smash the country like Libya and then walk away without rebuilding or stabilizing it.
  3. U.S. imperial leadership has grown openly thuggish and indifferent to public will or international consequences, escalating toward more brutal and chaotic foreign interventions.

The Oligarchical Corridor

Thinking about... • 724 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. A small network of wealthy private actors and close advisers — an "oligarchical corridor" — is shaping major foreign policy choices by bypassing official institutions and public debate.
  2. The war with Iran appears to benefit foreign states and wealthy interests (notably Israel, Saudi Arabia, and in some respects Russia) while harming US strategic interests by wasting weapons, weakening allies, and showing tactical unpreparedness.
  3. This dynamic erodes American institutions and citizen influence, leaving force and policy to private deals and personal loyalties, and recognizing that trend is the first step toward restoring democratic accountability.

A Speech for the History Books.

Breaking the News • 19765 implied HN points • 21 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The world is in a rupture: the old rules-based order is breaking down and great powers often act without limits, so we face a harsher reality.
  2. Middle powers and ordinary people still have influence; the "power of the less powerful" means countries like Canada and millions of individuals can defend values if they act honestly.
  3. Clear, concise, and modest speech that names hard truths can make complex ideas real and motivate action without resorting to boilerplate or grandstanding.

Chartbook 435: All perversions have their acting out. Reading Baudrillard on the weekend of the attack on Iran.

Chartbook • 2532 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Mass media turns real events into consumable signs and spectacles, so people get the dizzy thrill of catastrophe at a safe distance instead of actually engaging with history or violence.
  2. Private everyday life uses those media signs to justify passivity and security, craving dramatized violence so inaction feels morally acceptable and emotionally thrilling.
  3. There is a tension today: some military actions are driven by real geopolitical aims but occur without public preparation or legitimation, which raises the question of whether the media‑spectacle framework still fully explains contemporary war‑making.

No, China doesn't plan 1000 years ahead

Noahpinion • 20059 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. China is not some centuries‑planning monolith; its leaders often act reactively, make big short‑term mistakes, and reverse course.
  2. Xi’s recent purges reveal elite instability and personal paranoia, which may blunt external adventurism but make domestic policy more unpredictable and sometimes damaging.
  3. The claim that China plans 1,000 years ahead is largely a myth; both countries show examples of farsighted investment and of short‑sighted failure, so the real priority is rebuilding concrete long‑term institutions and policies rather than romanticizing rivals.

Why Attack Iran?

Thinking about... • 1752 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. A war with Iran can be used to weaken democracy at home by rallying the public, branding opponents as traitors, and shaping election conditions to favor those in power.
  2. The conflict may also serve personal enrichment, since Gulf allies who oppose Iran have financially rewarded the president and his family, creating a motive for using U.S. force to help those backers.
  3. There are non‑military ways to address Iranian repression—like targeted pressure, support for opposition, and help with water and ecological crises—but those options aren’t being offered, so citizens must demand scrutiny and ask hard questions during wartime.

Why Americans Should Root for Iran

Nonzero Newsletter • 1615 implied HN points • 14 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Iran’s war aim is to make future attacks on it too costly so they won’t be repeated, and if it succeeds that could push Gulf states to help build a more stable regional security architecture.
  2. Israel’s strategy of repeated punitive strikes (the “mowing the lawn” approach) and recent U.S.-backed attacks have been major drivers of instability, so political checks on such adventurism would likely reduce future violence.
  3. Many Iranian actions are reactive to past foreign interventions, so labeling Iran the sole destabilizer ignores important context; negotiated guarantees, sanctions relief, or a return to nuclear diplomacy could help lock in a lasting ceasefire and fewer future deaths.

If Westerners Could Wrap Their Minds Around What War Really Is

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 3357 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. War is unimaginably brutal and causes horrific physical and emotional suffering. Many people in the West treat it like a video game because they haven’t experienced those horrors firsthand.
  2. Our culture, media, and leaders sanitize and glamorize war while dehumanizing people on the receiving end. That makes it easier for the public to support or ignore large-scale violence.
  3. The western empire depends on ongoing war and powerful actors benefit from it. Real peace requires removing or resisting the systems and leaders that profit from bloodshed.

The US War Machine Is Run By Deranged Armageddon Cultists

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2649 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Senior US officials are using aggressive, macho war rhetoric and promising relentless strikes on Iran, openly celebrating overwhelming military force.
  2. Evangelical religious influence has seeped into the military and government, with leaders framing the conflict as divinely sanctioned and even apocalyptic.
  3. The US imperial system is portrayed as dangerously hypocritical and tyrannical, led by zealots who shouldn't be trusted with nuclear power, and the piece argues this system must be dismantled for humanity's sake.

Judge Foreign Policy Decisions by Their Immediate Impacts

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1682 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Judge foreign policy by its immediate impacts and short-term market signals, since markets aggregate information and reflect what people with money at stake expect. Reserve judgment only briefly while events are still unfolding, but don’t wait years or generations to decide.
  2. When early indicators all point positive—rising markets, political openings, and clearer paths to better governance—treat the intervention as a success relative to the likely alternative rather than chasing long-run counterfactuals. Use these proximate signals as your baseline for comparison.
  3. If signals are mixed or the situation is early, hold off and weigh market losses and economic costs against gains in policy objectives using a short, clear horizon; employ market proxies plus simple cost–benefit tools (including statistical value of life) rather than waiting indefinitely.

Can America Rebuild the Arsenal of Democracy? Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 361 implied HN points • 17 Mar 26
đź“° News Foreign Policy
  1. The U.S. and its allies are running low on missiles and interceptors, and rebuilding the industrial base—using modern software and manufacturing—is essential to scale production and keep up with rivals.
  2. Treating politics as a constant hobby can become an addictive, parasocial relationship that hurts mental health and pulls people away from real democratic participation, so it’s healthier to step back.
  3. Private actors and new technologies are reshaping policy and conflict: startups are racing to produce advanced weapons, wealthy individuals can sway political positions, and crowdsourced apps and markets are influencing real-world outcomes.

Losing the War on Truth

Thinking about... • 1217 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. A leader’s habitual lying and pursuit of personal pleasure can drive reckless decisions like war, and those lies erode the factual basis needed for good governance.
  2. The war against Iran has been justified with contradictory excuses—nuclear threat, regime change, and electoral interference—that don’t hold up and have produced real harm: mass deaths, weakened alliances, diverted military resources, and greater risks of proliferation and terrorism.
  3. Protecting simple truths and rebuilding institutions is essential to stop authoritarian deception; defending election integrity, restoring oversight, and exposing contradictions can help build coalitions to prevent power grabs.

Henry Huiyao Wang: Middle powers are taking up the mantle of multilateral leadership

Pekingnology • 60 implied HN points • 26 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. With the United States stepping back from its traditional leadership role, middle powers are forming flexible coalitions to uphold multilateralism and keep economic integration moving forward.
  2. The CPTPP shows how these middle powers can save and expand rules-based trade as a bulwark against tariffs and unilateral measures, and it could grow to include major economies like China and the EU to strengthen global trade rules.
  3. Globalisation will continue in a more multipolar, plural system where coalitions of willing countries, not any single power, sustain open markets and shape the future of international governance.

Nasty, Brutish, and Long.

Breaking the News • 2103 implied HN points • 26 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The speech will probably be old news quickly but still matters as a sign that the Republican Party is deeply servile to the president and as a moment future historians will point to.
  2. It combined awkward, poorly delivered scripted passages with long, recycled rally riffs — the prepared parts sounded wooden and the rest was narcissistic blame-gaming that drew rapturous GOP applause.
  3. The act is losing its novelty and energy; what used to be unpredictable and compelling now felt boring and low‑energy, weakening its ability to hold or grow a broad audience.

Europe is under siege

Noahpinion • 56765 implied HN points • 07 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Europe now faces a real security squeeze: an aggressive Russia aided by China on one side and an increasingly unreliable United States on the other, so European security can no longer be taken for granted.
  2. Europe must act more like a single country by integrating militarily and economically — coordinating defense procurement, building a domestic defense-industrial base (drones, batteries, chips, AI), and strengthening its nuclear and conventional forces.
  3. Europe needs big policy changes at home and abroad: create fiscal tools to fund defense, reform social and energy policies to free resources, onshore critical industries, and diversify partners and export markets (India, Japan, Korea, etc.) to reduce dependence on China and the U.S.

Debating the Ex-IDF Spokesman About the War in Iran on Piers Morgan's Show, with Mike Pence

Glenn Greenwald • 2787 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The war with Iran is rapidly expanding and risks turning into a wider regional conflict, which is driving intense public and media debates.
  2. Some prominent U.S. figures remain steadfast in defending past military interventions and continue to advocate for new wars with little change in their arguments.
  3. Participants questioned whether Israel places key military and intelligence command centers inside residential areas of Tel Aviv, and former military spokespeople gave responses that many found revealing.

War Propaganda and Iran: The Exact Script Used for Every Failed US War Is Hauled Out Again

Glenn Greenwald • 4749 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. Governments and media keep recycling the same discredited propaganda to sell new wars, claiming humanitarian motives while hiding strategic or political aims.
  2. Friendly exiles and lurid atrocity stories are staged and amplified to portray targets as uniquely evil and eager for liberation, even when those claims are unreliable or false.
  3. Critics of proposed wars are routinely smeared as enemy sympathizers, which suppresses dissent, ignores public opinion, and allows destructive conflicts to proceed with little accountability.

What Iranians Really Think About the War

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1321 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. People are terrified and exhausted by heavy bombing, but many feel they've lived under state terror for decades.
  2. The state appears to be unraveling and many hope the conflict might end the regime, though past brutal crackdowns make people wary of what comes next.
  3. The war is causing real civilian suffering and uncertainty, with strikes aimed at regime sites but still killing children and making daily life dominated by explosions and rumors.

Monopoly Round-Up: A Gunboat Oligarchy Goes After Venezuelan Oil

BIG by Matt Stoller • 29107 implied HN points • 05 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The U.S. seizure of Venezuelan oil marks a return to gunboat-style intervention where government action is clearly serving big finance and energy interests.
  2. Widespread anger at oligarchs and weak Democratic leadership is opening space for new, populist reformers, highlighted by Zohran Mamdani’s early moves and proposals like a billionaire tax.
  3. America’s deindustrialization and China’s manufacturing rise are shifting global power, while domestic deregulation and a merger boom favor financiers and risk deeper consolidation and backlash.

Was MAGA ever really "anti-war"?

Michael Tracey • 56 implied HN points • 24 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. People's attitudes toward war mostly track their partisan loyalties rather than a steady anti-war or pro-war philosophy, so support shifts when leaders or party cues change.
  2. Despite anti-war rhetoric, Trump and key MAGA figures pursued aggressive military policies — big budgets, lethal strikes, and expanded deployments — that contradict claims of being "anti-war."
  3. Prominent supposed anti-war allies who joined the movement helped legitimize those contradictions, feeding false promises of ending endless war while normalizing intervention and bypassing public debate.

THE SWAMP LOG - The March To War, A President Deposed, Bigger in Texas

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 2367 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The newsletter spotlights big political storylines — a march to war, a president being deposed, and major developments in Texas.
  2. It bills itself as a weekly dispatch pushing back against Washington’s “Blob” and aiming to demystify D.C. by using public resources and plain language instead of insider chatter.
  3. It’s published on Racket as paid newsletter content with subscription options, while occasionally offering free posts or promotional free access.

Welcome Back to Substack!

Glenn Greenwald • 8151 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
đź“° News Foreign Policy
  1. Returning to Substack to center on long-form independent journalism after a period producing a nightly live show on another platform.
  2. Plans to use Substack’s expanded tools—Notes, video hosting, podcasts, and subscription tiers—to publish short updates, video-first segments, and in-depth reporting.
  3. A strong commitment to defending independent media and free expression while continuing to report on foreign wars, surveillance, the security state, and threats to civil liberties.

Fascist Failure

Thinking about... • 1492 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The attempt to turn the country into a fascist state is stalled because it depends on a bloody, popular, victorious war and the political competence to wage it, which the current leader lacks — he can bluster and break things but can’t deliver decisive triumphs.
  2. The choices on Iran are limited and risky: doing nothing changes little, while an invasion would likely be catastrophic domestically; he may also try to suppress voting as an alternate route to stay in power, but that faces legal and civic resistance.
  3. Democratic resistance still matters — protests, civil society, local media, and courts have so far checked worse outcomes, and winning the next elections will require extraordinary organizing and broad coalitions to prevent authoritarian consolidation.

Newsom Looks Small in the Face of a Big War

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1706 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. He publicly blamed Israeli strikes for killing children and used that to attack Trump, a stance the writer says reflects rising anti‑Israel or anti‑Jewish sentiment among Democrats.
  2. He offers little criticism of Iran’s rulers, instead directing his harshest words at Israel and Trump.
  3. That blame-focused, tribal rhetoric makes him look small on a major international conflict and raises doubts about his ability to lead beyond his base as a 2028 front‑runner.

The US is on the brink of a major new war that Trump has not even bothered explaining

Glenn Greenwald • 4302 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy
  1. The U.S. has sent a massive military buildup near Iran, creating a real risk of a major new war without clear public explanation or meaningful congressional debate.
  2. The official reasons given for confronting Iran — claims about its nuclear program, human rights, and missile threats — are inconsistent or unpersuasive as a basis for full-scale military action.
  3. Despite rhetoric about pivoting away from the region, the U.S. remains deeply entangled in the Middle East, and close ties to Israel and influential pro-Israel actors appear to be driving American moves toward conflict with Iran.