The hottest Public Opinion Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

After Joe

Yascha Mounk • 3337 implied HN points • 21 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Kamala Harris needs to build broader support if she becomes the Democratic nominee. It's important for voters to feel they have a choice and a voice in the election process.
  2. Harris should focus on appealing to swing voters and moving toward the political center. This means addressing key issues in a way that connects with a wider audience, especially those uncertain about their support.
  3. The upcoming election is competitive, and Democrats are showing they want to win. A strong campaign against Trump could turn the tide, even with Harris's past challenges.

Morning Reading

COVID Reason • 198 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. There are interesting shifts in voter support for the 2024 election, with more Hispanic and black male voters leaning towards Trump, which could change the results for Democrats.
  2. Kamala Harris might face challenges in appealing to black voters because they see her sincerity as lacking, despite her efforts.
  3. Biden's presidency could negatively affect Harris's chances in the upcoming election as many voters are unhappy with his leadership.

The State of Trump’s Presidency. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 449 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The State of the Union is being treated as a high-stakes moment, but its actual impact on Trump’s standing may be limited and will likely try to win back Republicans who have cooled on him, especially over immigration.
  2. The newsletter spotlights heated cultural debates, from a provocative defense of fraternity hazing to worries about screen-driven anxiety and how to handle stress after unplugging.
  3. Major policy and legal developments are unfolding: a U.S. lawsuit over payments tied to Palestinian terror, military warnings about striking Iran, and a Supreme Court case that could reshape climate litigation.

Should the Federal Government Sell Land?

Construction Physics • 23801 implied HN points • 10 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The federal government owns about 615 million acres of land in the US, which is roughly 27% of the country's total land area. Most of this land is in the western states.
  2. Selling federal land for housing could help with high housing costs, but most of this land is protected or too far away from where people actually need homes. Only a small portion is suitable for development.
  3. Cities like Las Vegas and Boise have some federal land nearby, which could be sold for homes, but the overall impact on housing prices is likely to be minimal.

Beautiful Wives

Magic + Loss • 377 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Melania Trump supports a woman's right to choose regarding abortion in her memoir. She believes women should have control over their own bodies.
  2. Donald Trump, however, plans to support a universal abortion ban if he is elected. He presents himself as a protector of women but implies that this will eliminate the need for abortion.
  3. The differing views between Melania and Donald Trump highlight a conflict in their beliefs about women's rights and autonomy.
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This Is a Test for America

Yascha Mounk • 3517 implied HN points • 16 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Most Americans are against political violence and were saddened by the attempt on Trump's life. This shows a basic commitment to resolving differences peacefully, which is important for a healthy democracy.
  2. Unfortunately, there are still some who celebrate violence and mock its victims. This reaction reflects a deeper frustration with American institutions, which many feel are failing to provide safety and security.
  3. While America has a lot of strengths, the mix of political anger, conspiracy thinking, and institutional failures presents a real risk. If not addressed, these issues could threaten the decent instincts that many ordinary Americans share.

TGIF: ICE on Ice

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1956 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Most politicians are unpopular right now, and Democrats are struggling to find an effective response to a performative, transactional Trump who dominates the news cycle.
  2. American diplomacy is being disrupted by presidential priorities, illustrated by the G7 being delayed because of a planned MMA birthday event.
  3. The news roundup mixes alarming and surreal moments—incendiary political claims, extremist-inspired crimes, and odd tech stories like an app that asks “Are you dead?”—showing a blend of outrage, spectacle, and weirdness in public life.

In This Dystopia You Can't Vote Against Wars But You Can Gamble On When They'll Start

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 1769 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. People are allowed to gamble on if and when military attacks will happen, even though they aren't given a real political way to vote against wars.
  2. The system legally rewards profiting from war—through prediction markets, arms companies, investments, and lobbying—while efforts to reduce violence are sidelined or blocked.
  3. The relentless pursuit of profit drives ongoing war, environmental destruction, inequality, and corruption, and meaningful change will only come if people collectively force new systems.

The singularity won't be gentle

Silver Bulletin • 800 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. If AI even somewhat transforms work and daily life, it will change politics in deep and unpredictable ways. Expect big disruptions rather than a smooth, gentle transition.
  2. Tech elites are out of touch with the broader public and often misread political dynamics. Their concentration of power and overconfidence could provoke strong backlash.
  3. Creative and knowledge workers who shape public opinion are particularly vulnerable to AI-driven job disruption. If they or their children feel their livelihoods are threatened, that could drive substantial political pushback.

Why does everyone still hate the Democrats?

Noahpinion • 18117 implied HN points • 01 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Even with Trump losing support, people still view Democrats less favorably. This shows that many voters are not happy with the Democratic Party right now.
  2. Dissatisfaction from left-leaning Democrats plays a big role in the party's unpopularity. Some very liberal voters are unhappy, which affects overall approval ratings.
  3. There is a noticeable shift in party identification since the pandemic, with fewer people identifying as Democrats. This trend is seen across different demographics, indicating a broader change in public perception.

If Newsom Is the Front-Runner, Democrats May Be Doomed

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1066 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Gavin Newsom has surged into clear front-runner status for the 2028 Democratic nomination, leading major polls and betting markets.
  2. His national profile has been boosted by high-profile media attention and a nonstop political blitz that appeals to elites and tastemakers.
  3. There’s a real risk his elite-focused image won’t translate into votes in key states, repeating the danger of a liberal California Democrat failing to connect with the voters who decide national elections.

Israel And Its Supporters Deliberately Foment Hate And Division In Our Society

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2570 implied HN points • 03 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Public Opinion
  1. Israel and its supporters deliberately stoke fear of “radical Islam” to divert criticism and boost support in Western countries.
  2. This strategy increases racism and social division, drowning out legitimate criticism by shifting attention and hatred onto Muslims.
  3. Instead of changing course, Israel leans on propaganda, censorship, and threats of violence to maintain support, implying its current form depends on ongoing abuse.

Donald Trump’s State of Exhaustion

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 324 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The State of the Union no longer moves the public. It still serves as a clear window into what the president and his team are thinking.
  2. The recent speech revealed an exhaustion of ambition and no clear agenda for the rest of the term. It failed to clarify priorities or lay out a concrete plan.
  3. The administration lacks an organized policy process and is not meeting normal budget deadlines. It operates largely as an extension of the president's personal whims rather than a conventional governing team.

The World of Dreampolitik

Novum Newsletter • 351 implied HN points • 27 Feb 26
🎭️ Culture Public Opinion
  1. Political life increasingly works through dreampolitik — vague symbols and fantasies that people project their hopes and fears onto instead of clear policy or concrete promises.
  2. This trend is driven by declining rooted institutions, rising post‑material values, and the internet, which amplifies disembodied, symbolic forms of belonging.
  3. Dreampolitik can win consent and shape markets in the short term, but it’s unstable because dreams don’t solve material problems and will fray when real needs aren’t met.

Cause or Effect?

Disaffected Newsletter • 899 implied HN points • 26 Aug 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Robert Kennedy Jr. surprised many by endorsing Donald Trump and focusing on children's health in his announcement.
  2. Andrew Hartz is working to remove political bias from therapy, making it easier for people to find therapists who won't judge them.
  3. The discussion includes satire about various public figures and the voting habits of young women.

My New Substack

Yascha Mounk • 2637 implied HN points • 18 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Public discussion is struggling and it's affecting politics and culture in a bad way. Addressing this issue is important for a healthier society.
  2. A direct connection between writers and readers can help bypass negative media influences. This allows for more honest and varied discussions.
  3. Expect a mix of thoughtful essays, timely commentary on big events, and conversations with interesting thinkers, all aimed at creating a richer intellectual community.

Iranian DIE-aspora and the Green frogs in a Well

Taipology • 63 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Public Opinion
  1. Bombing alone is unlikely to topple Iran — its vast terrain, large population, and decentralized "mosaic" defenses make regime change by air strikes (or a quick ground invasion) implausible.
  2. Some diaspora communities are openly celebrating heavy strikes and spreading misleading or exaggerated claims online, turning a complex war into polarizing memes and wishful thinking.
  3. The conflict looks set to be long, costly, and destabilizing: rising casualties, mass public grief that can create martyrs, and hard choices for allies about whether to stay engaged or cut losses.

Everyone Wants Peace Until They Get Hit With The War Propaganda

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 1732 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Public Opinion
  1. Mainstream Western media and big tech often act as propaganda systems that steer public opinion toward war and elite interests.
  2. That propaganda is especially effective because most people don’t realize they’re being manipulated, so they believe aggressive policies are their own ideas.
  3. If enough people learn to recognize and expose this manipulation, the propaganda loses power and citizens can more easily choose peace and freedom.

Zohran Mamdani's policies will (mostly) not bring abundance to NYC

Noahpinion • 20823 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Zohran Mamdani's economic policies might not help improve New York City as much as people hope. Some of his ideas could actually hurt the city's housing market.
  2. His plans include building more affordable housing and providing free child care, but there are concerns about their effectiveness and costs. It's important that the government can actually deliver on these promises.
  3. The focus on making government more efficient and achieving good outcomes is essential. Just saying you want better results isn't enough; real policies must back those words.

Trump is losing normies on immigration

Silver Bulletin • 1261 implied HN points • 25 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Videoed killings by ICE agents in Minneapolis have shifted public opinion and eroded Trump's advantage on immigration, bringing his immigration approval in line with his overall approval.
  2. Many Americans may favor stronger border enforcement in general, but they strongly reject ICE officers killing civilians or roaming armed in city streets.
  3. The administration’s defensive rhetoric and attempts to gaslight these incidents are backfiring, alienating some conservatives and creating political risks for DHS funding and broader support.

Make America Great Again

Disaffected Newsletter • 2657 implied HN points • 14 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The author has experienced a change in perspective about Trump, moving from dislike to enthusiastic support. It's okay for people's views to evolve over time.
  2. There is a strong feeling that it's essential not to let Democrats stay in power, as it may lead to negative outcomes. Many feel passionately about political responsibility in this context.
  3. Despite acknowledging Trump's flaws, there is admiration for his courage and defiance. Many appreciate leaders who stand strong and fight for their beliefs.

Start Demagoguing Against the Old

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 5949 implied HN points • 10 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. People really support benefits for the elderly like Social Security and Medicare, but they're not as keen on new programs for families. It shows people prefer sticking to what's already working.
  2. Younger people are more open to changing or cutting benefits for the elderly, especially when they realize the financial problems ahead. They seem to understand that tough choices are coming.
  3. Using honest discussions about financial trade-offs could help change opinions about entitlements. When young people are given facts, they often prefer reducing benefits over raising taxes.

Niall Ferguson: Trump, the Midterms, and the Six-Year Itch

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 871 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The US constitutional election cycle creates a predictable "six-year itch" where second-term presidents often see their domestic agenda stall and face scandals, crises, or public fatigue.
  2. Historically the president's party almost always loses seats in the midterms, which can leave the president politically weakened or a lame duck for the rest of the term.
  3. Even energetic leaders with foreign-policy successes can be hit by this cycle, so Trump is vulnerable to the same midterm troubles in a second term.

Australians Being Massacred Shouldn't Bother Us More Than Palestinians Being Massacred

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 2998 implied HN points • 15 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Public Opinion
  1. Society and media treat the deaths of Westerners as more significant and memorable than the same number of Palestinian deaths, which normalizes and hides violence against Palestinians.
  2. Tragedies are being exploited to push for censorship, crackdowns, and hardline policies instead of prompting equal concern for all victims.
  3. We need to widen our circle of compassion to care equally about people everywhere, because growing our empathy and moral awareness is essential for a just and sustainable future.

Ideology Isn't About Ideas (2)

Fake Noûs • 631 implied HN points • 07 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. People often adopt ideologies for non-intellectual reasons — to express their personality, belong to a tribe, or feel righteous — rather than to track truth.
  2. Personality and genetics shape political beliefs, so traits like openness or conscientiousness correlate with different ideologies and make certain positions feel natural.
  3. Because ideology is largely tribal and emotional, people are vulnerable to false stories that fit their narrative. So be skeptical, tolerant of others, and avoid letting your tribe's stories make you a sucker.

Don't discount American democracy's resilience

Silver Bulletin • 863 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The United States still has strong democratic resistance: courts, state and local governments, media, and large public protests regularly push back against authoritarian moves.
  2. Democracy vs. authoritarianism is not just a single score but a two-dimensional fight where both pro-democracy and pro-autocracy mobilization matter, and recent years have seen big pro-democracy mobilization alongside rising pro-authoritarian activity.
  3. Powerful political figures can win elections and make gains, but many voters reject authoritarian tactics and episodes of abuse can turn public opinion against them, giving institutions and elections a chance to limit or reverse damage.

A Simple Test of What People Really Think About Immigration

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 445 implied HN points • 16 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. A quick way to judge whether immigration is helping or hurting a city is to watch local real estate prices — if immigration were ruining a place, you'd expect property values to fall.
  2. Home prices have long tracked a city's overall health, dropping when jobs, safety, or governance decline and rising when a city revives.
  3. Property values aren't a perfect measure, but they're measurable and force you to weigh the net pluses and minuses; they tend to capture major economic and social trends in a simple, quantitative way.

The State of the Union Is Overstated

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 282 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. State of the Union speeches used to shape history, but today they mostly play out as partisan theater for tribal audiences.
  2. Nothing a president says in the speech is likely to break deep polarization or meaningfully reverse current political headwinds.
  3. Media and public obsession with parsing every line and reaction exaggerates the speech’s real impact compared with steady trends like approval ratings.

Making Sense of the Information Ecosystem

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 1629 implied HN points • 05 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Democracy depends on people acting together based on shared attitudes, and those attitudes are usually formed by communication rather than direct experience. Powerful symbols and messages shape how people feel and choose to act.
  2. Propaganda — the manipulation of significant symbols to manage collective attitudes — is an unavoidable and fundamental part of the information ecosystem and political life. Because it can't be eliminated, the practical response is to counter it with more effective communication.
  3. Political truths are often negotiated through institutions like courts, media, and elections, not settled solely by experts. The key challenge is aligning reliable expert knowledge with collective action when parts of the public may reject or distrust expertise.

A bunch of thoughts and evidence on immigration

Noahpinion • 18647 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Many Americans are unhappy with immigration policies, feeling that their voices aren't being heard. This frustration is often linked to perceptions of illegal immigration and the feeling that it goes against the democratic process.
  2. At the same time, the U.S. economy relies on immigration to grow, especially in small towns that need new residents to thrive. It's important for the country to find a balance between welcoming immigrants and addressing the concerns of citizens.
  3. There's a cultural shift happening, where Hispanic Americans are becoming more integrated and supportive of stricter immigration policies. This suggests that as communities succeed economically, their views on immigration can change.

Trump's State of the Union Address--He Is Reading the Polls And Seems Scared

Phillips’s Newsletter • 315 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. He’s clearly reading the polls and acting scared, so he toned down his usual confrontational style.
  2. He deliberately minimized or avoided formerly central issues—like attacks on the Supreme Court, tariffs, ICE/immigration, and mentions of Russia or China.
  3. He pushed the economy (prices and inflation) and highlighted selective foreign-policy “wins” like the Venezuela operation and a claimed Iran strike to sell achievements and distract from unpopular policies.

Why Ubiquitous Video Isn’t Making People More Reality-Based

Singal-Minded • 655 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
🎭️ Culture Public Opinion
  1. Ubiquitous video does not reliably make people more reality-based; even clear footage often fails to change minds. Many viewers double down on their initial beliefs instead of updating when new evidence appears.
  2. Emotional, social, and tribal commitments shape how people interpret video, so people rationalize or ignore contrary evidence and create competing narratives. That means footage can inflame polarization rather than settle facts.
  3. Persistent human cognitive biases mean more footage isn’t a cure for misinformation or flawed institutional responses. Video can help sometimes, but it won’t eliminate motivated reasoning or group-driven judgment.

What the Elites Get Wrong About Immigration

Life Since the Baby Boom • 2075 implied HN points • 22 Dec 25
🎭️ Culture Public Opinion
  1. Elites often argue immigration is mostly economic and humanitarian and that immigrants will assimilate, but they tend to downplay legal vs. illegal flows and the real cultural and compositional effects on local communities.
  2. National and local cultures matter to most people, and it’s reasonable to prefer immigration that preserves social cohesion because assimilation isn’t automatic or guaranteed.
  3. Public opinion in many Western countries favors less immigration, while mainstream media and experts often promote more and frame objections as prejudice; countries have the legitimate right to control their borders.

What's going to happen to Ukraine now?

Noahpinion • 30412 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The current situation in Ukraine may lead to a Finland-like scenario, where Ukraine could lose some territory but still maintain its independence and democracy. This would be a strategic victory for Ukraine despite the tactical losses.
  2. Recent shifts in American political support mean that while direct aid from the U.S. might change, Ukraine is still capable of defending itself and building its own military resources. They are determined to fight against the invasion.
  3. Negotiations with Russia might focus on reaching a peace deal that allows for ongoing Ukrainian independence, despite the narrative that favors Russia. A balance may be struck where both sides can find a way to end the conflict without total defeat.

Too many Americans still fear the future

Noahpinion • 30706 implied HN points • 28 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Many Americans are afraid of change because it often brings risks to their current status and wealth. This fear is stronger among older generations who have more to lose and prefer stability.
  2. Despite concerns about technology like AI, Americans are still moving forward with innovations and entrepreneurship. This shows a mix of courage and adaptability in facing the future.
  3. Political divisions are causing fear of new technologies. When people think that innovations might empower their opponents, they tend to resist change instead of embracing new possibilities.

How ICE Makes Raids Go Viral

Taylor Lorenz's Newsletter • 1492 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. ICE has reshaped its public affairs into an influencer-style media machine that churns out viral videos of tactical operations and immigration raids.
  2. That social media playbook is being copied by other agencies and helps dominate the internet, which in turn reshapes public opinion about immigrants.
  3. The shift is exposed through independent, subscriber-funded reporting that is often published behind a paywall.

Kamala Harris has Liz Cheney Syndrome

Silver Bulletin • 481 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Harris ran a largely substance-free campaign and didn’t clearly signal her positions, so many voters defaulted to viewing her as left-wing instead of a centrist.
  2. Liz Cheney Syndrome is when different groups each see you as their ideological opposite, and the analysis shows voters reward candidates who seem to match their own views.
  3. Because Harris didn’t define herself strongly, opponents and ads filled the gap; clear messaging (and overcoming possible gendered typecasting) is crucial for persuading voters and reducing ideological distance.

The Truth About Aliens Is Hiding in Plain Sight

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 227 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The government is being pushed to release its files on aliens, which will likely spark more public questions than clear answers.
  2. High-profile figures have made eye-catching comments about aliens, but officials say there’s no verified evidence of extraterrestrial contact.
  3. Many people think life elsewhere in the universe is probable, but that doesn’t mean aliens have visited Earth across vast space distances.

Suggest Questions For Metaculus/ACX Forecasting Contest

Astral Codex Ten • 3441 implied HN points • 14 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The ACX and Metaculus forecasting contest is looking for interesting questions related to events in 2026. Questions should have clear answers that can be known by the end of the year.
  2. The top ten contributors of question ideas can win prizes ranging from $150 to $700. It's a chance to get recognized for your ideas and earn some money.
  3. This year, the contest will also include AI bots that will compete against human forecasters. This adds a fun twist and a different level of competition to the event.