The hottest Statistics Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Technology Topics

Difference-in-Differences: No Anticipation with Parallel Trends (with a simulation and equations)

Scott's Substack • 117 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🔬 Science Causal Inference Statistics Simulation Data Analysis
  1. No anticipation means the baseline period is equal to Y(0) not Y(1)
  2. Difference-in-differences coefficient equals ATT in the post period for the treatment group plus parallel trends bias minus ATT in the incorrectly specified baseline period
  3. Difference-in-differences always requires three assumptions to point identify the ATT: SUTVA, Parallel trends, and No Anticipation

Revenge of the Nerds

The Better Letter • 196 implied HN points • 08 Dec 23
🎾 Sports Analytics Baseball Innovation Management Statistics
  1. Baseball's analytics revolution owes its existence to a smart security guard creating statistical analysis accessible and interesting.
  2. The success of 'Moneyball' accelerated the statistical disruption in baseball and led to the widespread use of advanced statistical measures in MLB.
  3. The Bill James approach transformed baseball analysis to be more objective, relevant, and useful, impacting team strategies and decision-making.

OSD 261: Murder rates are determined by your level of zoom

Open Source Defense • 63 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Crime Statistics Gun Rights
  1. Violence in society is like bubble tea - the bubbles, not the milk. It's not evenly distributed, but lumpy.
  2. Murder rates can vary widely within the same city, with certain neighborhoods being safer than others. High-level averages can be misleading.
  3. Your personal risk of violence is heavily influenced by factors like geography, behavior, and demographics, rather than just general statistics. Adjust your level of focus accordingly.

The 2023 True Sack Rate (TSR): Week 18 Update (Final Rankings)

Trench Warfare • 117 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
🎾 Sports Analysis Statistics Rankings Players Defense
  1. The 2023 True Sack Rate (TSR) metric differentiates sacks into four categories to evaluate pass-rush production accurately.
  2. The TSR provides valuable insights into how players earn sacks based on skill, technique, and circumstances.
  3. TSR results and rankings for edge rushers are available, including top performers in various efficiency metrics.
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BA.2.86 growth rates

Logging the World • 418 implied HN points • 23 Aug 23
🔬 Science Statistics Genetics Epidemiology Research Mathematics
  1. New COVID variant BA.2.86 has mutations that suggest fast growth, but estimating its growth rate is tricky.
  2. Statisticians use models and likelihood functions to estimate parameters like growth rates, but uncertainty exists in the estimates.
  3. The work of statistician C.R. Rao, like the Fisher information, shows fundamental limits to parameter estimation and the role of geometry in statistics.

Stray Thoughts... - You mean Cerberus?

THE BATFLIP • 314 implied HN points • 29 Sep 23
🎾 Sports Baseball Statistics Team Dynamics
  1. Chris Bassitt reached the 200 inning mark with a stellar performance for the Blue Jays, a rare accomplishment in today's game.
  2. Pitchers going deep into games for 200+ innings is becoming increasingly rare due to injury prevention, expanded bullpens, and awareness of third-time-through-the-order penalty.
  3. Brandon Belt's performance, Rangers' bullpen struggles, and playoff scenarios are important factors to watch for Blue Jays' postseason hopes.

Ratings Are Broken

Zwischenzug • 412 implied HN points • 29 Jul 23
🎾 Sports Chess Statistics
  1. Lower rated players are winning more often than expected.
  2. New underrated players entering the rating pool are causing downward pressure on ratings.
  3. Proposed solutions include a one-time rating boost for players under 2000 and changes in rating calculations.

Some results on income distributions and total utility

Splitting Infinity • 59 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
🔬 Science Mathematics Statistics Economics
  1. The type of income distribution models used like Pareto or lognormal can impact total utility calculations in economics
  2. There is an interesting relationship observed where the degree of inequality doesn't directly correlate with total utility in certain scenarios
  3. Introducing more risk-averse utility functions can bring the focus back on the importance of inequality in calculations

Momentum

Market Sentiment • 412 implied HN points • 25 Jun 23
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Momentum Statistics Market Strategies
  1. Momentum investing is based on the idea that winners will keep winning and losers will keep losing.
  2. In a story about finding a lost submarine, leveraging the collective wisdom of diverse individuals led to success.
  3. A simple momentum investing strategy has shown consistent, outperforming results over years and different market conditions.

Four ways of thinking

Logging the World • 199 implied HN points • 28 Sep 23
🔬 Science Mathematics Complexity Statistics Chaos Evolution
  1. The book 'Four Ways of Thinking' by David Sumpter discusses four philosophies that map onto the four types of cellular automata identified by Stephen Wolfram, with historical anecdotes and life lessons.
  2. The book explores statistical, interactive, chaotic, and complex ways of thinking, connecting topics like cellular automata, chaos theory, and modern statistics with practical applications.
  3. David Sumpter's book introduces the complexity of modern mathematical research, showcasing the emergence of complicated behavior from simple rules and the fascinating concept of quantifying complexity in patterns.

“There's nothing I can do about it.”

The Better Letter • 157 implied HN points • 20 Oct 23
🎾 Sports Baseball Statistics Playoffs
  1. Baseball analytics have revolutionized the sport, but interpreting data on human behavior is complex.
  2. Clutch hitting in baseball is a controversial topic with no solid evidence of its existence as a repeatable skill.
  3. Combining traditional scouting with statistical analysis in sports management is often more effective than choosing one over the other.

True Pressure Score (TPS): Grading the the top 22 in pressures through the first seven weeks of the season

Trench Warfare • 137 implied HN points • 24 Oct 23
🎾 Sports NFL Statistics Player evaluation
  1. True Pressure Score (TPS) is a metric used to evaluate pass-rushers based on different types of pressures.
  2. The Pressure Quality Ratio (PQR) measures the efficiency of pass-rushers by comparing high quality pressures to low quality pressures.
  3. Players like Crosby and Hutchinson lead in TPS, while Garrett and Carter stand out in PQR with high efficiency ratios.

Do Women Really Have Fewer Partners Than Men?

Pryor Questions • 186 implied HN points • 16 Sep 23
🎭️ Culture Sexuality Statistics Gender
  1. The average number of sexual partners for men and women can vary depending on the type of average used, such as mean, median, or mode.
  2. Surveys on sexual partners may be influenced by social biases, leading to discrepancies in reported numbers between genders.
  3. Different studies and surveys show conflicting data on the average number of sexual partners for men and women, indicating the complexity of capturing such personal and varied experiences.

Exaggerating China's military spending, St. Louis Fed breaks all statistical rules with misleading graph

Geopolitical Economy Report • 438 implied HN points • 24 Jan 23
🌍 World Politics Military Statistics Propaganda US-China Relations
  1. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis published a misleading graph suggesting China spends more on military than the US, but in reality, the US military budget is three times larger.
  2. The graph's depiction of military expenditure by different countries was misleading due to the use of separate axes for China and the US, creating a false impression.
  3. China's military spending, when looked at accurately, is much smaller than the US when considering GDP percentage, per capita measurement, and even in comparison to other top spenders.

The Social Network (Part 2)

Logging the World • 279 implied HN points • 13 Apr 23
🔬 Science Networks Statistics Social media Modeling
  1. Real social networks exhibit more complex behaviors than simple mathematical models can capture.
  2. The structure of social media follower counts differs significantly from the Erdős–Rényi network model, with some users having exponentially more followers than others.
  3. Recent network models like the Barabási-Albert model better represent the dynamics of online social networks like Twitter, where heavy-tailed distributions of follower counts emerge.

RhetVis #1: Introduction to Rhetorical Data Visualization

Aika’s Newsletter • 98 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
🚌 Education Data Visualization Rhetoric Statistics Ethics Psychology
  1. Rhetorical Data Visualization involves framing that influences interpretations of data visualizations.
  2. Visualizations are inherently biased and reflect the creator's inclinations.
  3. The course on Rhetorical Data Visualization aims to develop skills in analyzing and creating visualizations with integrity and humility.

Canada's Mental Health Crisis is Only Getting Worse

Mental Disorder • 98 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Mental health Statistics Survey
  1. Rates of mental health disorders in Canada have significantly increased over the past decade.
  2. Young Canadian women are particularly affected, with high rates of social anxiety and major depressive disorder.
  3. Economic factors like a stagnant economy and rising living costs play a significant role in the worsening mental health crisis in Canada.

The Dark Statistician Guide to the Office March Madness Pool

coldhealing • 235 implied HN points • 13 Mar 23
🎾 Sports Gambling Strategy Statistics
  1. The Dark Statistician Guide recommends using contrarian and statistical strategies in office March Madness pools.
  2. Focus on maximizing your odds of winning rather than college basketball knowledge when making your bracket.
  3. Consider decentralizing your picks, betting against popular choices, and adjusting strategies based on pool size for better chances of success.

The Advent of “Feather Alerts” is a Great Time to Reflect on How Racist Antiracism Has Gotten

I Might Be Wrong • 15 implied HN points • 20 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Racism Equality Statistics Legislation
  1. California has implemented race-specific alert systems like Ebony Alerts and Feather Alerts, which raise questions about the approach to addressing racial disparities.
  2. The use of separate but equality-named systems like Ebony Alerts and Feather Alerts in California highlights flaws in current antiracist practices.
  3. Lawmakers embracing race-based thinking by passing the Ebony Alerts and Feather Alerts bills reflects a concerning trend of ineffective responses to racial disparities.

An intro to the Normal Distribution [Math Mondays]

Technology Made Simple • 159 implied HN points • 23 May 23
🚌 Education Math Software Engineering Statistics Finance Technology
  1. The Normal Distribution is a probability distribution used to model real-world data, with a bell-shaped curve and key points located at the center.
  2. The Normal Distribution is essential as it is commonly used in various fields to model real-world phenomena, calculate probabilities, and make informed decisions in software development.
  3. Understanding and using the Normal Distribution in software can help in making approximations for performance, making the right sacrifices, and optimizing solutions based on real-world data.

True Pressure Rate Short: Grading the the top 10 in pressures through the first four games of the season

Trench Warfare • 58 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
🎾 Sports Analysis NFL Statistics
  1. The author created True Pressure Score (TPS) and Pressure Quality Ratio (PQR) to analyze pass-rushers' effectiveness.
  2. The top 10 pass-rushers are ranked based on True Pressure Score (TPS) and Pressure Quality Ratio (PQR).
  3. Myles Garrett has an exceptional Pressure Quality Ratio (PQR) of 16.0, showing high-quality pressures.

3 Common Statistical Biases Everyone Falls Prey To [Math Mondays]

Technology Made Simple • 139 implied HN points • 25 Apr 23
🔬 Science Statistics Bias Data Analysis
  1. Statistics can be misleading if affected by bias, which is a flaw in experiment design or data collection process.
  2. Biases affect everyone and can be exploited by manipulative individuals like politicians and salespeople.
  3. Common statistical biases include selection bias, recall bias, and observer bias, which can all be combated by slowing down and evaluating claims carefully.

Tanks for the memories

Logging the World • 179 implied HN points • 11 Dec 22
🔬 Science Statistics Probability Military History Cybersecurity Data Analysis
  1. In a raffle with a large number of tickets, the biggest number drawn out starts to show some structure as more tickets are selected.
  2. By looking at the maximum value drawn in a raffle, one can estimate the total number of tickets, a concept applied in statistics like the German tank problem.
  3. Sequential numbering schemes can reveal interesting insights, as seen in situations like the Skripal poisonings and Novak Djokovic's COVID test, highlighting the importance of careful numbering practices.

Murder at Midyear

Jeff-alytics • 78 implied HN points • 30 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Crime Statistics FBI Trends
  1. Murder rates are decreasing in big and small cities across the US.
  2. Guesstimating the national murder trend is challenging due to lack of standardized reporting processes.
  3. Leading indicators, like the Gun Violence Archive, suggest a potential 8-10% decline in national murders for 2023.