Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality $10 / month

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality explores economic history, economics, political economy, finance, and forecasting with a focus on understanding and addressing the complexities of contemporary global challenges. It critically analyzes current events, historical occurrences, and theoretical perspectives to offer insight into economic inequalities, democracy, neoliberal ideas, and geopolitical tensions.

Economic History Political Economy Finance and Forecasting Contemporary Global Challenges Economic Inequalities Democracy and Governance Neoliberalism Geopolitical Tensions

Top posts of the year

And their main takeaways

In Spite of All the "Don't Worry" Whispers from Scott Bessent's Affinity, the Rest of Us Are Not Outside But Inside the Chaos-Monkey Cage with Trump

169 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Leadership Economics Chaos Theory
  1. There's a strong chance for chaos over the next four years, and keeping Trump in check seems very difficult.
  2. Trump's approach to information is problematic, often spreading misinformation which increases the risk of bad policies.
  3. Economists are uncertain about the economic impact of Trump's plans, but history suggests that chaotic decisions will likely lead to negative outcomes.

Mondays with the Machine: The Tongue & the Token: Language as Interface in Our Current Age of AI

169 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
🕹 Technology AI Natural Language Machine Learning Computing
  1. Natural language interfaces are a big deal because they let us communicate with AI using everyday language. This makes it easier for everyone to use technology without needing to know complex coding or technical skills.
  2. AI systems, like language models, simulate understanding but don't actually think. They can help us find information and assist with tasks, but we should remember that they are not truly intelligent.
  3. Using conversational AI can democratize access to information, making it easier for people to learn and solve problems. However, we must be aware of the risks, like over-reliance on these systems.

Mondays with the Machine: Thinking Out Loud About the Current "AI" Boom-Bubble

169 implied HN points • 02 Jun 25
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Machine Learning Cognitive Science Digital Tools Information Technology
  1. New technologies like AI often cause panic as people worry about their impact, similar to how calculators were once banned in schools. Over time, we learn to use these tools responsibly.
  2. AI chatbots can seem human-like, but they are actually complex tools for finding information. Instead of treating them like people, we should learn how to use them effectively for our needs.
  3. While AI can generate a lot of ideas quickly, it lacks the depth and truthfulness that history provides. History gives us valuable lessons, but AI can still help spark new thoughts and start conversations.

HOISTED FROM A YEAR AGO: Why Is There No Gentry-Massacring Peasant Jacquerie in "Pride & Prejudice"?

169 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
📚 Literature Classics Historical Fiction Analysis Social Commentary Cultural critique
  1. Mr. Bennet from 'Pride and Prejudice' has a lot of income from his estate compared to typical workers, raising questions about his wealth. His lifestyle reflects a significant gap from the common folk who earn much less.
  2. Historically, landowners like Mr. Bennet didn't rely on battle skills for their wealth, unlike knights of the past. Their wealth comes from owning land and having no direct skills to justify their social standing.
  3. While France faced revolts that changed the system and broke down feudal privileges, England managed to avoid such upheaval. This difference shaped the future of the social classes in both countries.

"A Browser with a ChatBot": Watching the Evolution of The Browser Company Toward "AI", Whatever That Might Become

169 implied HN points • 05 Jun 25
🕹 Technology Web Development AI Software User Experience Internet
  1. The Browser Company is trying to create a new web experience by mixing a familiar browser interface with a chatbot. They hope this will make it easy for users to adapt to their product.
  2. There is a lot of competition in the browser market, with big companies like Google and Apple also developing AI features. This makes it hard for smaller companies to stand out.
  3. The goal is to not just be another browser, but to help users manage their entire online life better. They want to offer advanced features that save time and improve productivity over time.
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BIWEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-28 Sa

169 implied HN points • 28 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political trends Government Accountability Election Dynamics Social Issues Foreign Policy
  1. There's a trend in America moving away from clear laws towards decisions based on discretion, which could lead to corruption. It's important to have clear rules to prevent misuse of power.
  2. The idea of conquering places for resources is outdated. It's much more efficient to trade for what we need instead of trying to take over land.
  3. In Berkeley, there's a shift from strict neighborhood controls to more inclusive housing policies. This change reflects a desire for more affordable living in the area.

Betting on the Corruption of the American System: The DJT Market-Valuation Indicator

161 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Election Dynamics Public Perception
  1. Investors are buying DJT stock because they think it can be used to gain favor with Donald Trump if he becomes president again. They see owning these shares as a way to show their support.
  2. The stock was once worth more than Twitter, even though its actual revenue is very low. This suggests that people are focusing more on speculation than the business's real value.
  3. Unlike other meme stocks, DJT is not really viewed as a typical media company. Instead, many investors see it as a way to potentially bribe Trump for political favors.

ONE IMAGE: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES FROM 2020: The Moment I Realized Intel Was in Huge Trouble—But I Did Not See the TSMC-NVIDIA Angle

161 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
🕹 Technology Hardware Semiconductors Innovation Corporate strategy Industry Analysis
  1. Intel has been struggling to keep up with competitors like TSMC and Apple, especially in chip performance and manufacturing processes. This gap has raised concerns about Intel's future viability.
  2. Performance per watt is becoming more important in chip design, meaning companies like Apple that focus on this can gain a significant advantage over others, including Intel.
  3. Many believe Intel is in a tough spot with little hope for recovery. If things don’t improve, its value may only come from any cash payments the government might offer, rather than from future profits.

Apple Computer in Strategic Retreat? Is It Shifting from Its AI Fantasies to Its Old Religion of Usability-Focused Hardware-Software Integration?

161 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
🕹 Technology Software Hardware AI Consumer Tech Innovation
  1. Apple is shifting its focus back to what it does best: making great hardware and software that work well together. This is a smart move for the company.
  2. By empowering developers and opening up new opportunities, Apple is creating more value and fostering better partnerships in the tech world.
  3. Instead of trying to chase new trends like AI, Apple is being more realistic and focusing on delivering solid products that people actually need.

Report: Virtual & Augmented Reality Test Drive

153 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Virtual reality Augmented reality Product Reviews Tech Trends User Experience
  1. The Apple VisionPro has some cool uses like immersive video and creating a personal space during flights. However, it's not worth the high price for most people.
  2. Facebook's new AR glasses are just a prototype and not available for sale yet. This means they aren’t really ahead of Apple, which could quickly release a practical product when ready.
  3. Users want more efficient apps and features for AR experiences, especially those that work better than iPad apps. There's potential for amazing virtual experiences, but the technology isn't fully there yet.

CROSSPOST: ALICE EVANS: Can YOU Uncover the Origins of Patriarchy?

153 implied HN points • 31 May 25
🎭️ Culture Gender Studies History Anthropology Art Society
  1. Gender hierarchies still exist today and are shaped by cultural beliefs about women's roles, particularly the idea that women should be kept secluded.
  2. Historical analysis of art and architecture can provide clues about how women's invisibility became a respected norm, especially following military conquests.
  3. It's important to be careful when interpreting ancient artifacts, as they represent only fragments of diverse cultures and may not reflect the whole picture.

READING: Hamilton's Constitutional Convention Speech

153 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Constitutional Law American history Government Structure Democracy issues
  1. Hamilton believed that weak state governments could harm a strong federal government. He thought a perfect government needed clear powers and strong institutions.
  2. He was worried that pure democracy could lead to chaos and tyranny. Instead, he preferred a system where some leaders held power for a longer time to ensure stability.
  3. Hamilton highlighted that the interests of states often clash with the needs of the entire nation. He suggested a government structure that aligns individual and national interests better.

DRAFT: It Is Our Business Here in America Not to Repeat Old World Society-of-Domination Mistakes

153 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Indigenous rights Social justice Political theory Cultural Discourse Historical context
  1. Land acknowledgments can be seen as a reminder of historical injustices, which some people may find annoying or overwhelming.
  2. There were many positive interactions between early colonists and Native Americans, and the population of Native Americans has actually grown since then.
  3. The benefits brought by the Columbian Exchange helped improve the lives of modern Native Americans compared to their ancestors in the past.

ONE IMAGE: By My Authority & My Ego: The Long-Run Shape of Human Economic History, from -73000 to 2180

153 implied HN points • 28 Nov 24
💾 History Economic History Cultural Evolution
  1. The human economic history is complicated and shaped by many factors over a long time. It's important to look back at our past to understand how we got to where we are.
  2. Calculating the true value of what people produced in the past is really tricky. Most production used to go towards basic needs, but now we have more technology and efficiency to create luxuries.
  3. Making predictions about the future is even more uncertain. We can only guess how things will continue to change and develop.

DRAFT: Do Birds Do It Much Better? (Intelligence, That Is), & Other Topics Related to the Deep Substrate of Economic History

146 implied HN points • 11 Jun 25
💾 History Economic History Cultural Evolution Intelligence Anthropology
  1. The evolution of human intelligence is tied closely to our ability to learn and communicate as a group, not just the individual brain's development.
  2. Birds and some other animals have developed intelligence in their own ways, showing that complex thinking can exist in brains much smaller than humans.
  3. Different species can reach similar levels of intelligence using different brain structures, which suggests that intelligence can evolve independently in various forms.

CROSSPOST: LEIF WEATHERBY: Our Spreadsheet Overlords

146 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
🕹 Technology AI Data Automation Bureaucracy Engineering
  1. AI tools like ChatGPT are often seen as super smart, but they're really just advanced digital bureaucrats. They help manage data and tasks but can hide errors behind a layer of complexity.
  2. Relying too much on AI can lead us to overlook its limitations. It doesn't think like humans; it's more about processing and translating data rather than genuine understanding.
  3. There's a risk in using AI for important tasks without careful oversight. As it automates jobs and decision-making, we need to stay aware of the potential for misuse and the loss of human judgment.

Think of It as Generating Our "Investment Surplus", Not as Our "Trade Deficit"

146 implied HN points • 04 Jun 25
💰 Finance Economic Policy Global Trade Investment Analysis Financial Stability
  1. Think of the trade deficit as an investment surplus instead. This way, we can see the benefits of foreign investments in the U.S. economy.
  2. A current-account trade deficit actually reflects an investment surplus by nature. This means that money from foreign exports is being used to buy U.S. assets, which can help keep interest rates low.
  3. While there are some costs linked to trade deficits, such as job losses in certain sectors, it's also important to recognize that investments can lead to new technology and greater economic strength in the long run.

Slides for Tomorrow's (2025-02-24 Mo) "American Exceptionalism" American Economic History Lecture

146 implied HN points • 23 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic History Political theory Industrialization Immigration Policy
  1. The U.S. had the potential to become a primary product exporter like Australia and Argentina due to its abundance of natural resources and land. However, historical choices led to a different path of industrialization instead.
  2. The U.S. chose to focus on manufacturing, education, and infrastructure, thanks to policies from figures like Alexander Hamilton. These choices helped build a strong economy that could sustain growth and innovation.
  3. Specializing in primary products can be risky as it makes economies vulnerable to price changes and global demand shifts. The U.S. avoided these traps by diversifying into industrialization, which created a more robust and resilient economy.

The Republican-Legislator Misinformation Meltdown of December 2024

146 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Legislation Politicians Misinformation Media
  1. Misinformation can create chaos in government, as seen with recent events involving political leaders and social media. It shows how easily people can be influenced by false information.
  2. The compromise spending bill before a potential government shutdown highlights how partisan tensions can escalate quickly, especially with external influences like Elon Musk's comments.
  3. Despite the turmoil, there's a possibility of avoiding a government shutdown, but the situation reveals deeper issues about leadership and decision-making within the government.

Monopoly Profits, AI Arms Races, & the Mirage of Silicon Valley Platform-Oligopoly Disruption

130 implied HN points • 14 Jun 25
🕹 Technology AI Software Platforms Disruption Innovation
  1. Users might benefit greatly from advanced AI technology if tools like chatbots serve them well. It's all about whether these tools work for us or the other way around.
  2. Tech giants like Google and Microsoft are facing challenges as AI rapidly evolves. Their old methods of operation may not keep up with new AI advancements.
  3. Even though AI is changing the tech landscape, it might not lead to the rise of new dominant companies. The existing major players could still remain strong despite the disruption.

What Had I Hoped to Teach This Just-Past Semester?

130 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
🚌 Education Teaching Methods Curriculum Development Economic History Cognitive Science Narrative Theory
  1. Understanding history is crucial for making sense of current and future human affairs. It helps us to see patterns and learn from past mistakes.
  2. Students should learn to think critically about economic issues. This includes analyzing how economic instability relates to political decisions and vice versa.
  3. History teaches us to look both backward and forward in time, which is a valuable skill. It allows us to make better decisions by using past examples to inform our understanding of present circumstances.

IDEAS NEEDED: What to Teach 150 Undergraduates About American Economic History Next Semester

130 implied HN points • 08 Dec 24
  1. To理解美国经济历史，我们应该探讨从过去的战争和瘟疫到成为全球经济强国的关键时刻和创新。
  2. 理解历史对学生的教育很重要，它帮助他们将历史视角融入到更广泛的逻辑、数学和其他学科中。
  3. 讨论历史中的矛盾与挑战，能够给学生提供更深刻的见解，帮助他们在未来形成全面的世界观。

Claim Chowder: She Did Good

130 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Leadership Public Opinion Government Accountability
  1. Incumbent parties in 2024 faced tough challenges, and Kamala Harris struggled to meet expectations as part of that scenario.
  2. Public perception of Kamala Harris has not been very positive, affecting her and the Biden administration's approval ratings.
  3. Many Democrats are less enthusiastic about Harris as a candidate for the future, raising questions about her role in upcoming elections.

MAMLM as a General Purpose Technology: The Ghost in the GDP Machine

130 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Innovation Productivity Data Analysis Economic Impact
  1. Big technology changes, like AI, often take longer to have an impact than we expect. History shows that these changes usually happen in small steps instead of all at once.
  2. The way AI is being used in businesses is growing, with more companies starting to adopt these technologies. This can lead to higher productivity over time.
  3. To really benefit from new technologies like AI, we need patience and creativity in our systems. The changes won't happen overnight, but it's important to stick with it.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2025-01-06 Mo

130 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Economic Policy Social Issues Public Opinion Cultural Commentary
  1. Educational approaches should blend economic theories with historical context. This helps students grasp how past events shape current economic systems.
  2. To tackle gender disparities in birth rates, changing perceptions about motherhood and fatherhood is essential. Men need to support women more in their roles both at work and home.
  3. Inflation isn't solely linked to government spending; the Federal Reserve plays a significant role in managing it. Digital and global economic shifts complicate how we analyze these financial factors.

Spreadsheet, Not Skynet: Microdoses, Not Microprocessors

130 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
🕹 Technology AI Economy Data Innovation Impact
  1. AI tools like GPT are not as powerful as some say; they're more like useful spreadsheets than super intelligent machines. This means their impact on the economy is real but not world-changing.
  2. The benefits of AI on human welfare will be positive but limited. It's important to use AI wisely and not let it distract us.
  3. AI models are great for processing language, but they aren't complex enough to be truly revolutionary. They function similarly to simple input-output machines rather than groundbreaking technologies.

Cattle, Social Cohesion, Culture, Civic Cohesion, Collective Uplift, & Civilization in Sub-Saharan Africa; Causality; & the TseTse Fly

123 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
🎭️ Culture Economic Development
  1. The tsetse fly has had a huge impact on Africa's history by harming cattle and limiting agricultural development. This meant less farming and a weaker economy for many regions.
  2. Without cattle, societies couldn't use plows, which hurt their ability to farm efficiently. This led to fewer roads and central governments.
  3. If the tsetse fly didn't exist, Africa might have developed more centralized states and lower rates of slavery, resulting in a stronger economy and bigger population over time.

First Principles of Fiscal Policy, with Some of Their Practical Applications

123 implied HN points • 22 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Fiscal policy Monetary Policy Economic strategy Inflation Public Opinion
  1. The Federal Reserve's approach in the 2020s, which involved acting quickly, turned out to be effective. Many people are thankful for the leadership during this time.
  2. Inflation in the early 2020s might not have been bad because it helped avoid a deeper recession and led to a better economy in some ways.
  3. Voters who understood the economy generally supported Democrats, while those who were confused tended to back Republicans. This shows how informed opinions can influence political choices.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-11-27 We

115 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Political trends Political Economy Social Issues
  1. Zero-sum thinking is on the rise, where people believe that economic growth takes away from someone else instead of benefiting everyone. This mindset can lead to less motivation and lower innovation in society.
  2. The belief that changes in the economy will harm individuals' existing benefits is a growing concern. Many people are starting to think that opportunities for advancement are limited.
  3. Recent predictions suggest that the U.S. economy could surprise us with better growth than expected. This positive outlook contrasts with the general fears of economic decline.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2025-01-13 Mo

115 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Markets Investments Policy Insurance
  1. 1. Understanding Economic Issues: The text discusses the idea that many problems in society are linked to economic misunderstandings and a lack of effective communication in the management of public services. It highlights the need for better systems to gather and process information for effective governance.
  2. 2. The Role of Government: It emphasizes that a government's primary job isn't just to keep people safe, but to empower them and solve crises effectively. Officials should focus on actual disaster management rather than just maintaining the appearance of control.
  3. 3. Challenges of Modern Technology: There is a critique of how tech companies like Facebook are operating without a long-term vision, which affects user experiences negatively. The discussion invites us to think about how technology can be used to improve our understanding and utilization of information.

NOTES: Reckoning with Post-Columbus Empires

115 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💾 History Colonialism Cultural Exchange Economic Impact
  1. Empires are built on conquest and exploitation, but they can also lead to positive effects like cultural exchange and technological progress. It’s important to recognize both the harm and the unintended benefits.
  2. The legacy of colonialism often leads to a complex view where the loss of local power is weighed against advances in trade, technology, and cultural contact. Understanding this balance is key.
  3. When reflecting on imperial history, it's essential to consider the wider impacts on society rather than just focusing on the actions of the conquerors. This broader perspective helps us see the mixed legacy of empires.

THE MACRO-FINANCE SITCH: The Streams (of Falling Short-Term & Rising Long-Term U.S. Treasury Rates) Cross

115 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Markets Bonds Economics Investing Policy
  1. Short-term Treasury rates are falling while long-term rates are rising, showing a change in investor expectations about future interest rates. This shift hints at more uncertainty in the market.
  2. The current economic situation could lead to tumultuous changes similar to past events in the UK, with concerns about the U.S. government's approach to debt and fiscal policy.
  3. Investors seem to be valuing flexibility over fixed returns, suggesting they want to avoid risks associated with long-term bonds in a fluctuating economy.

Gini Coefficients...

115 implied HN points • 16 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Inequality Economics Statistics Social Policy Education
  1. The Gini Coefficient measures income equality, where 0 means everyone is equal and 1 means one person has everything. It helps us understand how wealth is distributed in a society.
  2. Intermediate Gini values can be tricky to interpret. It's hard to know what a score like 0.25 or 0.62 really means in terms of real-life inequality.
  3. Understanding historical Gini scores can give insight into how different societies experience inequality, but the differences might not always feel significant or clear.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED for 2024-11-02 Sa

115 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Economics Public Opinion Political History
  1. Global warming is a serious threat, especially for poorer countries like those in sub-Saharan Africa that lack resources to adapt.
  2. Decarbonization efforts in the Global North have been noticeable over the past generation, helping to address climate change.
  3. Passive investing might seem easy, but it actually leads to big market shifts as people try to track indexes, which can complicate real price discovery.

What Is Man That Thou Art Mindful of Him?: How We All Already Have Our Superintelligent AI-Assistant :: POSSIBLE LECTURE OUTLINE

107 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Cognition Human Evolution Social Dynamics Collective Intelligence
  1. Humanity's collective brain can be viewed as our superintelligent partner, and we don't need to create a new one. We already have intelligence through our connections and shared knowledge.
  2. Our evolution has shaped us into a high-energy species that relies on cooperation and sharing, helping us thrive over time. This social interaction was key to our development and success.
  3. Smartphones and technology are just the next step in our long journey of collective thinking. They are tools that enhance our ability to connect and process information together.

The Unsolved Puzzle of Apple Computer's "AI" Misadventures Over the Past Year

107 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
🕹 Technology AI Software Gadgets Innovation Consumer Electronics
  1. Apple's Siri has struggled to keep up with other AI systems, which raises questions about the company's internal management and decision-making. Many people are wondering why they haven't been able to improve it over the years.
  2. Despite claiming to be on the cutting edge of AI, Apple has been criticized for over-promising and under-delivering. This has led to confusion both internally and among the public about what features are really available.
  3. There seems to be a lack of clear communication and situational awareness among Apple's leadership, which might be impacting their ability to deliver reliable AI solutions.

BIWEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-05 Th

107 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
🕹 Technology AI Economics Cybersecurity Hardware Fintech
  1. Intel has faced a lot of trouble due to poor decisions made years ago. The issues they are now trying to fix are rooted in choices that stretch back more than a decade.
  2. Spending on AI is growing, but it's still far below what many companies expected. Big tech firms are investing heavily in AI to protect themselves from competition, even though they don't see immediate profits.
  3. China is now the main driver of global warming, and other countries have significantly cut their CO2 emissions. Tackling climate change is increasingly seen as a challenge that China needs to address.

Sundowning in America: A Series: Part III

107 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Commentary Elections Public Opinion Political Rhetoric Government Critique
  1. Donald Trump is seen as promoting dangerous ideas that intimidate his political opponents, which may influence some Republican leaders but not everyone.
  2. Despite hosting a rally at Madison Square Garden, he couldn't fill the venue, signaling a potential decline in support.
  3. There are concerns about Trump's mental state as he often makes confusing statements, leading to doubts about his capability to lead.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: Again, This Year, I Lament I Have No Opportunity to Give My "How to Think Like an Economist" Lecture

99 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
🚌 Education Teaching Methods Economics Higher education
  1. Learning economics requires new ways of thinking, similar to learning a new language. It helps people see the economy more clearly but may also overlook things that are not easily measured.
  2. There's an ideal time in college to teach how to think like an economist. Teaching it too early or too late may not be effective.
  3. Economics is viewed differently based on background; some see it as a science, while others view it as outdated psychology. Both views have some truth to them.

CROSSPOST: Josh Marshall: State of Play on Capitol Hill

99 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Congress Elections Leadership Political parties Current Events
  1. Elon Musk has become a major player in government discussions, shaking things up in ways even Donald Trump can't control. It's like Musk is the new chaos agent, and everyone has to deal with the mess he creates.
  2. Trump is trying to lead the charge but is struggling because Musk's influence is unpredictable and strong. This situation shows that Trump doesn't have the same grip on power as he used to.
  3. The recent events in Congress highlight the rising tension within the Republican Party. Many Republicans are defying Trump's wishes, which is unusual and suggests a shift in loyalty and power dynamics.