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ChinaTalk offers an analytical perspective on US-China relations, focusing on policy, technology, economic issues, and cultural exchanges. It translates Chinese sources to explore communism, Taiwan's politics, military dynamics, tech advancements, industrial policies, and societal trends, while evaluating global implications and China's internal and external strategies.

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The hottest Substack posts of ChinaTalk

And their main takeaways

Trump and WWIII

681 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Election Strategy Military Affairs International relations National Security
  1. Trump's foreign policy could increase the risk of conflict. Instead of promoting peace, his approach may lead to war by weakening alliances.
  2. His plans for Ukraine and Taiwan involve risky deals that could encourage aggression from Russia and China. This could make the U.S. less trusted by its allies and more likely to be dragged into a war.
  3. Maintaining a strong military and solid international relationships is key to avoiding World War III. A weak approach to foreign policy might upset the balance of power and lead to catastrophic outcomes.

China’s Quantum Gamble

415 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Quantum Computing Research & Development International relations
  1. China's quantum technology sector may rely more on state funding due to new U.S. restrictions on investments. This means Chinese companies could get support directly from the government instead of international investors.
  2. The recent rules about quantum tech could make it harder to understand what's happening in China's commercial quantum efforts. Since U.S. money is less involved now, there may be less transparency.
  3. Even though the restrictions are significant, they might not stop China's progress in quantum technologies. China already has strong funding and a growing start-up scene focused on these developments.

Trump's Export Control Strategy

207 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Trade policy Technology Policy Geopolitics Semiconductors National Security
  1. Trump's team may need to reconsider how they handle chip export controls to better respond to China's advancements in technology. Using broader, simpler restrictions might be more effective than current complicated rules.
  2. It's important for America to strengthen its semiconductor industry to avoid losing market share to China. Investing in domestic production is key, and the current CHIPS Act needs to be expanded.
  3. To effectively restrict China's tech growth, the U.S. should coordinate with allies and avoid creating loopholes. A united front will make it harder for China to advance their semiconductor capabilities.

When RAND Made Magic + Jason Matheny Response

340 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Think Tanks Foreign Policy Military Strategy Research Funding Public Policy
  1. RAND Corporation was once at the forefront of military and scientific research, making groundbreaking contributions in areas like game theory and defense strategy during the Cold War.
  2. Over time, RAND has shifted its focus from cutting-edge scientific research to social and policy analysis, leading to a decline in its innovative output as it navigated new funding sources and political landscapes.
  3. Despite its challenges, RAND continues to play a significant role in addressing modern security issues, adapting its research to tackle contemporary challenges like military capabilities and psychological impacts of war.

Where’s China’s AI Safety Institute?

370 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
🕹 Technology AI safety
  1. AI Safety Institutes, or AISIs, are new groups set up to focus on the safety of advanced artificial intelligence. They help create guidelines and conduct research.
  2. China has not yet created an official AI Safety Institute, which raises questions about its role in global AI safety discussions. Some believe it should establish one to formally participate in international efforts.
  3. Despite not having an AISI, several Chinese organizations already work on AI safety, but this makes coordination and engagement with international partners more complex.
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Biden’s Final Export Control Salvo Misfires

266 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Analysis Export Controls International relations Economic strategy
  1. Biden's new export controls for chips were seen as weak and complicated. They might not effectively slow down China's progress in chip technology.
  2. The rules have too many loopholes that companies can exploit, allowing China to stockpile resources and continue its chip production relatively unhindered.
  3. There are debates about the effectiveness of the regulations and whether they should be focused more on strategic goals or just enforcement of the law.

How Taiwan Sees the Chip War

548 implied HN points • 24 Oct 24
🕹 Technology Semiconductors Geopolitics Industrial Policy Taiwan AI Technology
  1. Taiwan has become a leader in the semiconductor industry, mainly due to effective industrial policies, the rise of TSMC, and a focus on education and talent. This development is crucial for understanding Taiwan's economic success.
  2. TSMC's success can be attributed to a mix of technological advancement and customer service. They prioritize satisfying customer needs, which is vital for maintaining their competitive edge.
  3. Taiwan's geopolitical situation makes its chip industry crucial for global supply chains. With rising tensions globally, TSMC's role is likened to a protective 'Silicon Shield' for Taiwan, reflecting its importance in international relations.

SB 1047 with Socialist Characteristics: China’s Algorithm Registry in the LLM Era

355 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🕹 Technology AI Regulations Policy Analysis Data security Global Governance
  1. China has introduced strict rules for generative AI, requiring all output to reflect socialist values. This highlights the government's focus on controlling AI content that interacts with the public.
  2. There are two separate registration processes for algorithms in China: a simpler one for regular algorithms and a more complex one for generative AI. The more complicated process involves direct testing by authorities, making it tougher for companies to launch AI products.
  3. The regulatory environment is still evolving and can be confusing for companies. Some might face delays in getting their models approved, which could lead to a preference for targeting businesses over regular consumers.

MMA in China=Ping Pong Diplomacy?

296 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🎾 Sports MMA Politics US-China Relations Cultural Exchange Diplomacy
  1. The UFC has developed a strong relationship with Donald Trump, making appearances at events during key moments in his political career. This connection shows how sports can intertwine with politics.
  2. China has been a growing market for the UFC, with events and training programs aimed at building local talent and expanding their fan base. The UFC is interested in maintaining good relations with China, especially as they return to hosting events there.
  3. The idea of using sports, like MMA, to improve US-China relations is like the historical 'ping pong diplomacy.' It suggests that unexpected connections can help bridge gaps between countries, even in tense times.

China’s AI Boyfriends

444 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🕹 Technology AI Companionship Startups Social media Consumer Trends
  1. AI companions are becoming popular in China, especially among young women. They offer emotional support and can fill gaps that real relationships might not fulfill.
  2. Startups like MiniMax are creating AI apps that gather user data while providing companionship. This helps improve their AI models, even if the immediate profits are not high.
  3. The AI companion market faces challenges from strict regulations and data privacy concerns. Many users share personal feelings with these apps, making safety an important issue.

Soviet Ruins and China's Future

474 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🌍 World Politics Soviet Union China Cold War Political Economy International relations
  1. China looks to the lessons of the Soviet Union to understand its own economic strategies and potential risks. By studying the past, they hope to avoid similar pitfalls in governance.
  2. The distribution of resources in an economy is crucial for success. If too much is spent on heavy industry and not enough on consumer goods, it can lead to dissatisfaction and inefficiencies.
  3. Khrushchev's time saw a shift in the Soviet mentality from military competition to economic competition with the West. This idea of competing systems is still relevant today, especially in how China views its place in the world.

Chinese Shoegaze: An Introduction

400 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🎶 Music Cultural influence Podcasts
  1. Chinese shoegaze is a unique music genre that's getting more popular, with bands like NarrowLaneAngel and Forsaken Autumn showcasing their talents. It's exciting to see new acts emerge and contribute to this sound.
  2. A podcast episode explores Chinese shoegaze and features various bands, highlighting different tracks. Listeners can enjoy a deep dive into this music scene while discovering fresh and vibrant sounds.
  3. The genre has roots in different cities across China, with each band bringing its own flavor to the shoegaze style. This diversity adds richness and variety to the music, making it a fascinating scene to explore.

Makers of Modern Strategy with Hal Brands

266 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💾 History Military History Political History
  1. The _Makers of Modern Strategy_ series is crucial for understanding statecraft and warfare through history. It covers strategies from ancient times to modern conflicts, highlighting key thinkers and ideas.
  2. The 2023 edition includes unique essays on lesser-known figures like Tecumseh and contemporary issues like the Congo wars. These essays challenge traditional views and expand our understanding of strategy.
  3. Hal Brands emphasizes the role of history in shaping effective strategy. Studying past strategies helps inform current decisions and highlights the ongoing importance of strategic thinking in today's world.

ByteDance gets Suxtnet'd, Taiwan Healthcare and Internet Democracy

355 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🕹 Technology AI Cybersecurity Internet Healthcare Democracy
  1. An intern at ByteDance caused major damage by sabotaging AI training, affecting thousands of GPUs and potentially costing millions. This highlights possible gaps in the company's security.
  2. Taiwan has a highly praised healthcare system, often ranked as the best in the world. It's seen as a model that could inspire others.
  3. The internet acts as a powerful platform for democracy in China. Victims often turn to it when traditional systems fail to provide justice.

Chinese Hip Hop Annual Roundup

296 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🎶 Music Hip-hop Cultural Commentary Artist Profiles
  1. Chinese hip-hop is evolving with many talented artists emerging. The scene has a mix of both mainstream stars and underground talent.
  2. Streaming platforms like NetEase Music play a crucial role in introducing listeners to a variety of Chinese rap, especially from underground artists who may not be on bigger platforms like Spotify.
  3. Lyrical content in Chinese hip-hop can cover serious topics, including social issues and personal struggles, but artists must be careful due to censorship in China.

Data Wars and the DOJ

207 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Data security National Security Public Policy
  1. The DOJ is creating new data security rules to help protect American personal data from foreign threats. This is important because foreign adversaries could use sensitive information against us.
  2. Companies need to be careful about how they handle sensitive data, especially when dealing with countries considered 'adversarial'. There will be strict rules about who they can sell data to and how to keep it secure.
  3. Public feedback is vital in shaping these new rules. The DOJ wants companies to share their thoughts so they can finalize a plan that protects national security without harming the economy.

China on Harris and Trump Tech Policy

222 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics International relations Economic strategy
  1. Harris and Trump have very different plans for technology policies if elected. Harris will likely keep regulations tight, while Trump wants to ease rules to boost innovation.
  2. Both candidates agree on being tough on Chinese technology. They see the need to grow American tech while limiting China's influence.
  3. Harris may push for stricter antitrust laws against big tech, while Trump could allow more mergers. Each approach will have a big effect on the tech world.

Purges and the PLA: Corruption in the Ranks

874 implied HN points • 08 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Military Taiwan China
  1. Corruption within the Chinese military has led to major purges, affecting Xi Jinping's military actions.
  2. Predicting Xi Jinping's actions regarding Taiwan is difficult due to his secretive nature and complex decision-making process.
  3. Taiwan needs to focus on enhancing its defense capabilities with a balance of investments in munitions, technology, and strategic planning.

Top 5 US-China Tech Stories

637 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
🕹 Technology E-commerce EVs Semiconductors AI
  1. TikTok has defied early predictions of regulatory restrictions in the US due to vested interests and political dynamics.
  2. The splintering of cross-border VC firms like Sequoia and GGV Capital is a tangible impact of US-China relations.
  3. Chinese EVs are dominating globally, posing a challenge to traditional automakers and highlighting the US infrastructure gap.

Debating China's Industrial Policy + Jordan in London

592 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Industrial Policy Economic Policy
  1. Industrial policy in China is a contentious issue, with supporters believing in state intervention for progress and critics arguing for a free market approach.
  2. The debate between economists Lin and Zhang reflects the tension in China's economic thinking on the role of the government versus the market.
  3. Xi Jinping's industrial policies are shaped by the Party's political will to surpass the West in GDP and technology, balancing between state intervention and market forces.

Music from China: The Year That Was

533 implied HN points • 28 Dec 23
🎶 Music TV shows
  1. Chinese bands like Chinese Football toured overseas in 2023
  2. 河边走 The river, Orchestration, Walkman! embraced improvisation in their music
  3. bié Records released top compilations in 2023

Spring Festival Gala Review by Chinese Doom Scroll

429 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
🎭️ Culture Entertainment Music Comedy Traditions Dance
  1. Many people found the 2024 Spring Festival Gala to be enjoyable and a hit among the past few years' shows.
  2. The performances included a variety of acts showcasing traditional Chinese arts like drums, dancing, opera, martial arts, and folk songs.
  3. Despite some controversial comedy skits, overall the Gala featured high-quality, impressive performances and a mix of propaganda and entertainment.

Sino-Soviet Split 2.0

370 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Alliances Geopolitics Autocracies Diplomacy
  1. The partnership between Russia and China may not be as strong as it seems, with a 75% chance of it collapsing due to differing views on separatism.
  2. China and Russia have different perspectives on separatism, with China focusing on maintaining territorial unity while Russia supports separatist movements in neighboring regions.
  3. The stability of the alliance between China and Russia is questionable, and smart diplomatic maneuvering by democracies can help exploit the ideological cracks between these two powerful autocracies.

TikTok Ban - Is Congress For Real?

340 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Social media National Security Tech industry Bipartisan Politics
  1. The US House of Representatives voted in favor of a bill to force ByteDance to sell TikTok or cease its operation in the US within 180 days.
  2. TikTok's potential for political manipulation raised concerns, leading to bipartisan support for the bill in Congress.
  3. The TikTok ban marks the end of an era in US-China tech relations, highlighting the complexities of balancing national security with commercial interests.

The Average Chinese City

652 implied HN points • 04 Oct 23
🌐 International China Small Town Economy Education Culture
  1. Some of the top headlines from China reveal struggling economic situations post-zero-covid.
  2. Small cities like Baoji reflect challenges in China's economy with falling home prices and limited job prospects.
  3. Education in small-town China can be marketized, with families fighting for opportunities in local high schools.

Taiwan Election Results: How Lai won, what China thinks, and what’s at stake for the DPP

415 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Elections China Taiwan Cross-strait relations
  1. Current VP William Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party won the Taiwan presidential election with over 40% of the vote.
  2. The DPP lost control of the legislature in Taiwan's election, falling from 61 to 51 seats.
  3. The Taiwan election was a referendum on DPP governance and internal issues like population crisis, high real estate prices, and military conscription.

A Year in Books

326 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
📚 Literature Biographies War Technology Strategy History
  1. Enjoyed using Audible and Voicedream app to power through a lot of text this year.
  2. Trended towards reading about war and technology rather than China books due to current events.
  3. Found 'The Social History of the Machine Gun' and 'Eye-Deep In Hell' insightful and impactful in understanding warfare.

Pottinger on Trump 2.0

296 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy National Security Bureaucracy Pandemic response
  1. What leaders say matters - whether it's during speeches or impulsive tweets, it's important to take them seriously.
  2. High-level engagement is crucial in US-China relations - having Presidents engage directly can ensure important messages are communicated.
  3. Strategic ambiguity in foreign policy may need to be revised - particularly in the context of US commitment to defend Taiwan.

Can BIS Control the Cloud?

311 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Cloud Computing AI Regulation Data Reporting Privacy Concerns
  1. New proposed rules by Commerce focus on regulating US cloud providers to identify customers and monitor large AI training with potential risks.
  2. The regulations aim to prevent misuse of cloud services for cyber attacks and dangerous AI systems, using 'Know Your Customer' schemes.
  3. Enforcement measures include restrictions on customers or jurisdictions engaging in malicious cyber activities, with a focus on setting up reporting processes.

Litho World & Commerce: Lost in Translation?

444 implied HN points • 01 Nov 23
🕹 Technology Tech Policy Export Controls
  1. The US and its allies are in a technology cold war with China over semiconductor capabilities.
  2. Export restrictions and regulations around lithography in semiconductors have led to misunderstandings between the Commerce Department and manufacturers.
  3. Recent export controls aim to restrict Chinese access to advanced technology, but loopholes and circumventions still exist.

Why Science Dominates China’s Political Culture

429 implied HN points • 09 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics China Political culture Nationalism Ideology
  1. Science is a national quest in China, driven by nationalism, with a focus on achieving technological advancement and international prestige.
  2. China's modernization history saw the concept of science elevated from a mere tool to a grand narrative that influences the evaluation of national power.
  3. The CCP's focus on science and technology as a central value raises questions about the impact of scientism on China's future progress and international relations.

How ERNIE, China's ChatGPT, Cracks Under Pressure

459 implied HN points • 05 Sep 23
🕹 Technology AI Chatbot Ethics Language processing
  1. ERNIE filters out unsavory questions by making them impossible to type in or steering conversations away.
  2. ERNIE's proficiency in Chinese is strong, but it struggles with more complex prompts and may provide inaccurate information.
  3. ERNIE tends to copy-paste responses from 'trusted' sources when faced with prompts that could lead to non-permissible content.

Censorship’s Impact on China’s Chatbots

207 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
🕹 Technology AI Censorship Chatbots Research Regulation
  1. Chinese AI chatbots are subject to strict censorship by the Cyberspace Administration of China, affecting their responses to political questions.
  2. There is a noticeable tradeoff between content control and value alignment in Chinese chatbots, highlighting a balance between censorship and quality of output.
  3. Censorship in Chinese chatbots involves value alignment training and keyword filtering, showing how Chinese regulators influence the responses of AI models to favor Beijing's values.