The hottest Predictions Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Technology Topics

When will AI do my job for me?

Entry Level Investing • 67 implied HN points • 10 May 23
🕹 Technology AI Automation Predictions
  1. AI is likely to disrupt white collar workers more than the working class for the first time.
  2. AI excels at replacing repetitive, language-heavy tasks, starting with law but expanding to other fields.
  3. Professional service fees may decrease as AI tools become essential, leading to challenges in finding future leaders in those industries.
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Social mobility and GDP and some predictions on the possible effect of AI

Solresol • 1 HN point • 01 Jul 24
🕹 Technology AI Social Mobility GDP Predictions Productivity
  1. Social mobility is a key indicator of societal fairness, showing whether individuals can move up or down in society based on opportunities, rather than birth.
  2. Wealthier countries tend to exhibit higher social mobility, providing more opportunities across all levels of society.
  3. The increasing role of AI in the workforce may lead to significant changes in social mobility: boosting GDP and potentially causing political upheaval as elites shift.

2024 Predictions

Data Taboo • 12 implied HN points • 01 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Cultural shift Predictions Romanticism AI Impact
  1. Predictions on AI and culture focus on industrial revolution with AI and networked communications, shift in Western culture to New Puritanism, and geopolitical shift to a multipolar world.
  2. Concerns over the economic impact of AI and potential for an AI Winter in 2024.
  3. Observations on cultural shifts towards anti-romanticism, including risk-averse culture, derivative art, and impact on film and literature production.

Severe Storms, Droughts, Damages: Dire Predictions for Coming El Nino

Adetokunbo Sees • 2 HN points • 26 May 23
🌞 Climate & Environment Predictions Climate change Natural Disasters Effects
  1. Experts predict severe consequences from the upcoming El Nino, including $3 trillion global economic losses and droughts.
  2. Climate change-induced El Nino events can lead to rising temperatures, sea levels, and catastrophic weather conditions worldwide.
  3. Mitigating El Nino effects requires addressing climate change through reducing fossil fuel usage.

Where does the value of stocks come from?

First principles trivia • 0 implied HN points • 05 Dec 21
💰 Finance Stocks Dividends Investing Value Predictions
  1. Stock value comes from sources beyond just dividends, like stock buybacks, mergers, acquisitions, voting power, and potential future dividends.
  2. Companies may not pay dividends but can still provide shareholder value through mechanisms like stock buybacks, mergers, and acquisitions.
  3. The stock market functions as a prediction market for future company performance, with investors making long-term bets on potential returns, even if dividends are not immediate.

Two years on

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 12 Mar 22
🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemic Vaccines Reflection Predictions Rapid tests
  1. Year two of the pandemic has seen a positive shift with vaccines making Covid-19 less life-threatening and more manageable.
  2. Some predictions made for the pandemic's second year were accurate, like widespread vaccination in certain regions, while others, like the elimination of masks and social distancing, have not entirely materialized.
  3. Rapid testing has become a significant tool during the pandemic, though the rise of the Omicron variant has posed challenges to its effectiveness.

The problem with Numerai’s Erasure protocol

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 05 Oct 18
🕹 Technology Blockchain Cryptocurrency Predictions Quality Staking
  1. Quality of predictions can be a challenge to assess before the fact, leading to market issues.
  2. Flooding the market with predictions can be avoided by having predictors earn reputations and stake their predictions.
  3. The mechanism of using staking and griefing in prediction markets may not effectively deter bad predictions and flooding, suggesting the need for alternative strategies.

Traditional disruption theory and predictions

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 29 Oct 15
💼 Business Disruption Theory Predictions
  1. Disruption theory can be more than just a tool for research, and some believe it can also predict when a disruptor will succeed.
  2. Views on disruption can vary, with some arguing that companies can actively pursue disruption as part of their innovation or commercialization efforts.
  3. Michael Raynor has put forth theories on disruption and innovation that are influential and open to empirical analysis.

The 'magic formula' still eludes us

Links I Would Gchat You If We Were Friends • 0 implied HN points • 28 Jan 22
🎭️ Culture Music Apps Predictions Entertainment Social media
  1. Predicting hit songs is a complex challenge that algorithms struggle with, even with large datasets and advanced models.
  2. A 'magic formula' to accurately predict the success of music hasn't been discovered yet, despite efforts by researchers and data scientists. Popularity is influenced by numerous unpredictable factors.
  3. Even with advances in AI and machine learning, the ability to forecast the popularity of music remains elusive, showcasing the complexity of human preferences and cultural influences.

Maybe we could dial the feels down a notch.

Links I Would Gchat You If We Were Friends • 0 implied HN points • 19 Nov 15
🕹 Technology Social media Virtual reality Algorithms Predictions
  1. War photography is evolving with the rise of first-person footage on platforms like YouTube.
  2. Virtual Reality is becoming more prevalent in entertainment, offering immersive experiences like never before.
  3. Selfies are praised for empowering individuals to share their worth without seeking validation from others.

LifeGPT: Training a Psychic LLM to Predict Your Life

Alex Furmansky - Magnetic Growth • 0 implied HN points • 26 Dec 23
🕹 Technology AI Predictions Ethics Applications Future implications
  1. LifeGPT could predict specific life events like marriage or career paths with stunning accuracy.
  2. People may turn to AI like LifeGPT for decision-making and guidance instead of traditional sources like priests or psychics.
  3. LifeGPT's potential implications range from changing insurance pricing and healthcare to impacting relationships and careers.