The hottest Predictions Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Technology Topics

Patterns and Predictions for 2024

The Intersection • 98 implied HN points • 20 Dec 23
🕹 Technology AI Interfaces Creativity Automation Predictions
  1. Creativity is now decentralized, allowing anyone with the will and tenacity to create, thanks to technology advancement.
  2. Platforms still hold power over creators, and AI will continue to deindustrialize various types of work, transforming the landscape.
  3. The future holds doing more with less, the 10-80-10 rule of AI in content creation, and an interface shift in areas like search, commerce, and automotive.

VC Market: 3 takeaways from ‘23 and 4 predictions for ‘24

Inverted J Curves • 78 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Predictions Funding Investments
  1. Global VC investments decreased in 2023, especially in European tech.
  2. Funding for European early-stage companies remained steady, with higher valuations at pre-Series A companies.
  3. In the New Nordics, climate tech attracted the most funding, with predictions for a fundraising frenzy in 2024 and higher bar for early-stage funding.
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Some predictions about the future of AI safety and EA if the current trajectory continues

Philosophy bear • 90 implied HN points • 24 Nov 23
📖 Philosophy AI safety Politics Predictions
  1. AI safety could become a left-wing issue, with corporations unlikely to sustain alliances with safety proponents in the long run.
  2. There may be a split within Effective Altruism due to relationships with corporations, leading to a 'left' and 'right' division.
  3. The AI safety field might divide into accommodationist and regulation-leaning factions, reflecting broader political trends.

All Hail the Homer

House of Strauss • 28 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🎾 Sports Analysis Fandom Predictions
  1. Being a "homer" can lead to more accurate predictions about your favorite team
  2. Assess opinions based on substance, not on perceived bias or motives
  3. Interest in an outcome can enhance understanding and knowledge, outweighing potential bias

7 Embarrasingly Wrong Predictions about the Future of Books

Litverse • 319 implied HN points • 31 Dec 22
📚 Literature Predictions eBooks Writing Publishing Reading
  1. Books have not necessarily gotten shorter as predicted due to digital influence. In fact, the average book length has increased.
  2. The envisioned innovative ways for writers to monetize books, such as through related content packages and modular literature, have not been widely implemented.
  3. The shift towards short stories as a marketing tool and the importance of visibility from magazines and e-zines over cash prizes did not become mainstream trends as predicted.

Calibration of Sports Betting Markets

Mike’s Blog • 39 implied HN points • 07 Nov 23
🎾 Sports Analysis Betting Market Predictions
  1. Calibration plots show how accurate forecasts are by comparing predicted probabilities to actual outcomes.
  2. Sports betting markets are remarkably well-calibrated based on analysis of MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAA data from 2016-2020.
  3. Implied probabilities in sports betting are normalized for analysis, where they sum to 1, to compare prediction accuracy.

When No One Can Work, What Will We Do?

Tessa Fights Robots • 87 implied HN points • 31 May 23
📖 Philosophy Predictions Challenges Healing Spirituality Existence
  1. The decline in physical health and cognitive ability may impact the way we work and function in society.
  2. There is a concern about the increasing toxicity in physical and spiritual health, leading to potential long-term consequences.
  3. Despite challenges and predictions, finding love and healing can help us navigate through difficult times.

2024 Predictions

Data Taboo • 12 implied HN points • 01 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Predictions Romanticism AI Impact
  1. Predictions on AI and culture focus on industrial revolution with AI and networked communications, shift in Western culture to New Puritanism, and geopolitical shift to a multipolar world.
  2. Concerns over the economic impact of AI and potential for an AI Winter in 2024.
  3. Observations on cultural shifts towards anti-romanticism, including risk-averse culture, derivative art, and impact on film and literature production.

When will AI do my job for me?

Entry Level Investing • 67 implied HN points • 10 May 23
🕹 Technology AI Automation Predictions
  1. AI is likely to disrupt white collar workers more than the working class for the first time.
  2. AI excels at replacing repetitive, language-heavy tasks, starting with law but expanding to other fields.
  3. Professional service fees may decrease as AI tools become essential, leading to challenges in finding future leaders in those industries.

Severe Storms, Droughts, Damages: Dire Predictions for Coming El Nino

Adetokunbo Sees • 2 HN points • 26 May 23
🌞 Climate & Environment Predictions Climate change Natural Disasters Effects
  1. Experts predict severe consequences from the upcoming El Nino, including $3 trillion global economic losses and droughts.
  2. Climate change-induced El Nino events can lead to rising temperatures, sea levels, and catastrophic weather conditions worldwide.
  3. Mitigating El Nino effects requires addressing climate change through reducing fossil fuel usage.

Traditional disruption theory and predictions

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 29 Oct 15
💼 Business Disruption Theory Predictions
  1. Disruption theory can be more than just a tool for research, and some believe it can also predict when a disruptor will succeed.
  2. Views on disruption can vary, with some arguing that companies can actively pursue disruption as part of their innovation or commercialization efforts.
  3. Michael Raynor has put forth theories on disruption and innovation that are influential and open to empirical analysis.

The 'magic formula' still eludes us

Links I Would Gchat You If We Were Friends • 0 implied HN points • 28 Jan 22
🎭️ Culture Music Apps Predictions Entertainment Social media
  1. Predicting hit songs is a complex challenge that algorithms struggle with, even with large datasets and advanced models.
  2. A 'magic formula' to accurately predict the success of music hasn't been discovered yet, despite efforts by researchers and data scientists. Popularity is influenced by numerous unpredictable factors.
  3. Even with advances in AI and machine learning, the ability to forecast the popularity of music remains elusive, showcasing the complexity of human preferences and cultural influences.

Maybe we could dial the feels down a notch.

Links I Would Gchat You If We Were Friends • 0 implied HN points • 19 Nov 15
🕹 Technology Social media Virtual reality Algorithms Predictions
  1. War photography is evolving with the rise of first-person footage on platforms like YouTube.
  2. Virtual Reality is becoming more prevalent in entertainment, offering immersive experiences like never before.
  3. Selfies are praised for empowering individuals to share their worth without seeking validation from others.

LifeGPT: Training a Psychic LLM to Predict Your Life

Alex Furmansky - Magnetic Growth • 0 implied HN points • 26 Dec 23
🕹 Technology AI Predictions Ethics Applications Future implications
  1. LifeGPT could predict specific life events like marriage or career paths with stunning accuracy.
  2. People may turn to AI like LifeGPT for decision-making and guidance instead of traditional sources like priests or psychics.
  3. LifeGPT's potential implications range from changing insurance pricing and healthcare to impacting relationships and careers.

Where does the value of stocks come from?

First principles trivia • 0 implied HN points • 05 Dec 21
💰 Finance Stocks Dividends Investing Value Predictions
  1. Stock value comes from sources beyond just dividends, like stock buybacks, mergers, acquisitions, voting power, and potential future dividends.
  2. Companies may not pay dividends but can still provide shareholder value through mechanisms like stock buybacks, mergers, and acquisitions.
  3. The stock market functions as a prediction market for future company performance, with investors making long-term bets on potential returns, even if dividends are not immediate.

Two years on

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 12 Mar 22
🏥 Health & Wellness Pandemic Vaccines Reflection Predictions Rapid tests
  1. Year two of the pandemic has seen a positive shift with vaccines making Covid-19 less life-threatening and more manageable.
  2. Some predictions made for the pandemic's second year were accurate, like widespread vaccination in certain regions, while others, like the elimination of masks and social distancing, have not entirely materialized.
  3. Rapid testing has become a significant tool during the pandemic, though the rise of the Omicron variant has posed challenges to its effectiveness.

The problem with Numerai’s Erasure protocol

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 05 Oct 18
🕹 Technology Blockchain Cryptocurrency Predictions Quality Staking
  1. Quality of predictions can be a challenge to assess before the fact, leading to market issues.
  2. Flooding the market with predictions can be avoided by having predictors earn reputations and stake their predictions.
  3. The mechanism of using staking and griefing in prediction markets may not effectively deter bad predictions and flooding, suggesting the need for alternative strategies.