The hottest Predictions Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Technology Topics

7 Embarrasingly Wrong Predictions about the Future of Books

Litverse • 319 implied HN points • 31 Dec 22
📚 Literature Predictions
  1. Books have not necessarily gotten shorter as predicted due to digital influence. In fact, the average book length has increased.
  2. The envisioned innovative ways for writers to monetize books, such as through related content packages and modular literature, have not been widely implemented.
  3. The shift towards short stories as a marketing tool and the importance of visibility from magazines and e-zines over cash prizes did not become mainstream trends as predicted.

Year in Review + 2022 Predictions!

DeFi Education • 1278 implied HN points • 30 Dec 21
🔮 Crypto Predictions
  1. The year 2021 was very eventful for the crypto market, filled with many developments. It felt like a lot happened in just six months of being involved.
  2. Crypto markets operate 24/7, which creates constant opportunities for profit. This means there's always movement and change in the market.
  3. Global participation in crypto is increasing, making it a truly worldwide financial system. The market's growth and interest are unlikely to slow down anytime soon.

Big Super Bowl Prizes!

House of Strauss • 5 implied HN points • 05 Feb 26
🎾 Sports Predictions
  1. It’s Super Bowl week with related festivities and in-person meetups among sports people.
  2. SportsPredict is hosting a zero-risk pick'em contest tied to the game where participants make picks and the top three finishers will receive prizes.
  3. The newsletter is reader-supported and encourages readers to subscribe, offering both free and paid subscription options.
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Scatterbrain: a letter from the end of times

The Leftovers • 119 implied HN points • 30 Dec 23
📚 Literature Predictions
  1. The author reflects on their writing journey in 2023, touching on the challenges and aspirations of writing for a living but not yet making enough income from it.
  2. The author shares their top ten favorite pieces written in 2023, discussing various topics from AI in art to the struggles of indie writers in the literary world.
  3. Predictions for 2024 include memoirs and Substacks created by AI, highlighting the evolving nature of technology's impact on self-expression and literature.

Will AI transform law?

AI Snake Oil • 648 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. The idea of AI replacing lawyers is plausible but not well-supported by current evidence.
  2. Applications of AI in law can be categorized into information processing, creativity/judgment tasks, and predicting the future.
  3. Evaluation of AI in law needs to advance beyond static benchmarks to real-world deployment scenarios.

Super Bowl LVIII Predictions!

Go Long with Tyler Dunne • 78 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
🎾 Sports Predictions
  1. Super Bowl LVIII predictions are divided between the Chiefs and the 49ers, with differing views on the outcome.
  2. Analysts focus on key players like Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy in their predictions.
  3. Factors determining the game's result include defense, turnovers, and player performances.

Patterns and Predictions for 2024

The Intersection • 98 implied HN points • 20 Dec 23
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. Creativity is now decentralized, allowing anyone with the will and tenacity to create, thanks to technology advancement.
  2. Platforms still hold power over creators, and AI will continue to deindustrialize various types of work, transforming the landscape.
  3. The future holds doing more with less, the 10-80-10 rule of AI in content creation, and an interface shift in areas like search, commerce, and automotive.

2024 March Madness predictions

Silver Bulletin • 410 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
🎾 Sports Predictions
  1. The 2024 March Madness predictions suggest Connecticut is the favorite to repeat as champs, but with only a 23% chance. Other top contenders include Purdue, Arizona, and Houston.
  2. The model used for the predictions is based on a composite of power ratings with adjustments for injuries and travel distance. It also considers preseason rankings to enhance predictive accuracy.
  3. The East region is highlighted as a chalky region with potential for upsets in certain games, like the 7-10 upset pick. The winner from this region will face the winner from the livelier West region in the Final Four.

🪩 Retrospectives: Data Privacy

alohomora • 98 implied HN points • 02 Jul 23
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. Data protection opens up opportunities in various industries.
  2. Acquisitions in data privacy have been notable but fewer than expected.
  3. Different technology approaches are being explored for data protection, emphasizing the importance of ease of use.

Links to Consider

In My Tribe • 364 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Predictions
  1. Click on the links provided to explore more in-depth content
  2. Consider the difference between dominance and prestige hierarchies in society
  3. Maintain high standards and integrity to uphold the prestige of academic institutions

AI predictions for 2025

Artificial Ignorance • 126 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. In 2025, AI will focus more on improving reasoning abilities rather than just building larger models. This means smarter, more capable AI that can think through problems better.
  2. Expect personalized AI experiences to get better, with chatbots that can truly remember and learn about you. This could change how we interact with AI in our daily lives.
  3. There will likely be more AI 'agents' in workplaces, especially for customer service and sales, but many won't live up to the hype. We may see both benefits and gaps in their performance.

How I made "The Probability Times"

Nerology • 142 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Predictions
  1. The project turns election predictions into real newspaper headlines, making stats feel more concrete. Each data point in the simulations gets a corresponding news story.
  2. Using a script, detailed election results from states can be generated, summarizing victories and close races. This gives journalists useful info to write about.
  3. AI tools were utilized to create news articles and images, making the project visually appealing and engaging. The tech helps bring the election outcomes to life with visuals and compelling stories.

🏆 What the Oscar race can teach us about AI.

New_ Public • 58 implied HN points • 05 Mar 23
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. Oscar fans love predicting outcomes, leading to passion and obsession with awards.
  2. Predictive AI tools offer joy in playing games with rules for engagement, rooted in human behavior.
  3. Raising stakes for AI decision-making requires careful consideration and human involvement to avoid harmful consequences.

2024 Predictions

The Polymerist • 232 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
💼 Business Predictions
  1. Artificial Intelligence will reshape the Chemical Industry.
  2. Private Equity operators in the Chemical Industry need to focus on rebuilding companies and going digital.
  3. Predictions for 2024 involve leveraging AI and restructuring business strategies.

What You Can't Say (About AI)

The Algorithmic Bridge • 212 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. Moral fashions restrict what can be said and thought about, and going against them can lead to serious consequences.
  2. In AI communities, there are unspoken beliefs and ideas that people hesitate to express publicly, even within their own groups.
  3. Challenging current moral fashions in AI can lead to uncovering important future truths and insights.

Calibration of Sports Betting Markets

Mike’s Blog • 39 implied HN points • 07 Nov 23
🎾 Sports Predictions
  1. Calibration plots show how accurate forecasts are by comparing predicted probabilities to actual outcomes.
  2. Sports betting markets are remarkably well-calibrated based on analysis of MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAA data from 2016-2020.
  3. Implied probabilities in sports betting are normalized for analysis, where they sum to 1, to compare prediction accuracy.

Crazy bets on 2025 - 12 personal hedge funds predict the year

Five Links (and three graphs) by Auren Hoffman • 56 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Predictions
  1. A group of twelve people made predictions about 2025 and placed bets on the outcomes. This makes it fun and competitive to see who can guess the future better.
  2. Last year's predictions didn't go well overall, with only a few being correct. It shows that forecasting the future can be really tricky.
  3. This year, they have some bold predictions about events in politics, the economy, and culture. Some predictions sound far-fetched, but others seem more likely.

Torricelli's Law for Fat Loss

Experimental Fat Loss • 127 implied HN points • 10 Mar 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Predictions
  1. Torricelli's Law for Fat Loss explains how weight loss can slow down as you approach your normal weight, similar to a bucket draining liquid with decreasing speed.
  2. Weight loss projections can be influenced by dietary changes and external factors, like daylight savings time affecting circadian rhythms and potentially affecting weight loss plateaus.
  3. Testing multiple weight loss projections, such as following a fitted curve and intuition-based predictions, can help in anticipating weight loss outcomes and adjusting dietary strategies.

Here comes 2022

Diane Francis • 199 implied HN points • 03 Jan 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Predictions
  1. It's a good idea to stay optimistic, especially at the start of a new year. Positive thinking can help set a good tone for the months ahead.
  2. Many predictions are made at this time, but it's important to focus on what we can control. Preparing for the future while staying adaptable is key.
  3. Regular updates and newsletters can help keep people informed and engaged. It's great to have consistent communication, especially during changing times.

Why Didn't Stanley Kubrick & Arthur C. Clarke Predict The iPad?

1517 Fund • 121 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. Kubrick and Clarke came close to predicting the iPad in 2001: A Space Odyssey, but paper still played a big role in their vision, showing the challenge of imagining the shift to portable computers.
  2. The prediction of flat screens in 2001 was impressive considering they didn't exist at the time; RCA's pursuit of flat-panel technology likely influenced this foresight.
  3. Despite their brilliance, Kubrick and Clarke didn't fully predict the iPad because they were constrained by the prevalent mainframe computing environment and underestimated the advancements in miniaturization and portable computing.

Predictions for AI in 2025

Generating Conversation • 46 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. AI applications will become essential for businesses. Companies that don't adopt AI might struggle to keep up with competition.
  2. Investments in AI are expected to stay steady or increase. This means more money will flow into AI startups and technologies in the coming year.
  3. Foundation models will improve, but there may be fewer new releases. Companies will focus on enhancing existing models rather than just creating new ones.

24 Predictions for 2024

Situation Normal • 115 implied HN points • 07 Jan 24
😂 Humor Predictions
  1. Predictions made for 2024 include fun and relatable scenarios.
  2. The predictions range from daily life experiences to societal trends.
  3. The author humorously forecasts events like excessive cream cheese on bagels and ongoing struggles with technology.

LLM links, 2/27

In My Tribe • 91 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Predictions
  1. Compound AI systems are proving more effective than individual AI models, showing that combining different components can lead to better results.
  2. Providing extensive context can enhance AI capabilities, enabling new use cases and more effective training through models like Sora.
  3. The emergence of an AI computer virus is predicted to become a major concern, potentially causing widespread panic and technological shutdowns.

Why Can't We Run the Economy Better?

Inland Nobody • 80 implied HN points • 10 Mar 24
💰 Finance Predictions
  1. Economics is a challenging field due to the numerous variables involved in predicting and understanding economic outcomes.
  2. The history of economic growth shows that sustained worldwide economic growth is a relatively recent development, starting around 1820.
  3. Predicting economic trends is complex, similar to predicting the weather, due to the vast number of interconnected variables that can influence economic behavior.

2025 Predictions

The Corbett Report • 28 implied HN points • 12 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Predictions
  1. 2025 is expected to be a major year for AI, likely bringing an increase in AI-related news and developments. It's essential to stay informed about how AI is changing the landscape around us.
  2. There is a growing shift in public opinion against the climate crisis narratives, with people realizing the realities behind climate policies and backing away from extreme measures. This indicates a potential retreat from aggressive environmental agendas.
  3. There is hope for unity among various groups who believe in conspiracy realities. People are encouraged to come together, share ideas, and work towards freedom and solution-oriented actions.

Some predictions about the future of AI safety and EA if the current trajectory continues

Philosophy bear • 92 implied HN points • 24 Nov 23
📖 Philosophy Predictions
  1. AI safety could become a left-wing issue, with corporations unlikely to sustain alliances with safety proponents in the long run.
  2. There may be a split within Effective Altruism due to relationships with corporations, leading to a 'left' and 'right' division.
  3. The AI safety field might divide into accommodationist and regulation-leaning factions, reflecting broader political trends.