The hottest Predictions Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Technology Topics

Bitcoin ETF trades top $4.6 billion in ‘Ground-Breaking’ day; It was a tough year for almost every bank not named JPMorgan; 2024 prediction: Shopify acquires Stripe;

Fintech Wrap Up • 216 implied HN points • 17 Jan 24
💰 Finance Technology Banks Cryptocurrency Reports Predictions
  1. Bitcoin ETF trades exceeded $4.6 billion, a substantial milestone.
  2. Most banks faced a tough year except JPMorgan, thriving in profits.
  3. Prediction for 2024 suggests Shopify may acquire Stripe for strategic growth.

How I made "The Probability Times"

Nerology • 142 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Predictions Data Analysis Statistics Technology
  1. The project turns election predictions into real newspaper headlines, making stats feel more concrete. Each data point in the simulations gets a corresponding news story.
  2. Using a script, detailed election results from states can be generated, summarizing victories and close races. This gives journalists useful info to write about.
  3. AI tools were utilized to create news articles and images, making the project visually appealing and engaging. The tech helps bring the election outcomes to life with visuals and compelling stories.

On Non-Determinism // BrXnd Dispatch vol. 35

BrXnd Dispatch • 137 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
🕹 Technology AI Branding Marketing Predictions
  1. Computers operate deterministically, following specific algorithms to produce consistent results.
  2. Contrary to computers, AI models rely on probability to predict outputs, leading to non-deterministic behavior.
  3. The concept of hallucinations in AI highlights the uncertainties and associations generated by models, similar to how brands are perceived as bundles of ideas and associations.
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7 Embarrasingly Wrong Predictions about the Future of Books

Litverse • 319 implied HN points • 31 Dec 22
📚 Literature Predictions eBooks Writing Publishing Reading
  1. Books have not necessarily gotten shorter as predicted due to digital influence. In fact, the average book length has increased.
  2. The envisioned innovative ways for writers to monetize books, such as through related content packages and modular literature, have not been widely implemented.
  3. The shift towards short stories as a marketing tool and the importance of visibility from magazines and e-zines over cash prizes did not become mainstream trends as predicted.

Year in Review + 2022 Predictions!

DeFi Education • 1278 implied HN points • 30 Dec 21
🔮 Crypto Blockchain Investing DeFi Market Trends Predictions
  1. The year 2021 was very eventful for the crypto market, filled with many developments. It felt like a lot happened in just six months of being involved.
  2. Crypto markets operate 24/7, which creates constant opportunities for profit. This means there's always movement and change in the market.
  3. Global participation in crypto is increasing, making it a truly worldwide financial system. The market's growth and interest are unlikely to slow down anytime soon.

Scatterbrain: a letter from the end of times

The Leftovers • 119 implied HN points • 30 Dec 23
📚 Literature Writing Books Reading Predictions Publishing
  1. The author reflects on their writing journey in 2023, touching on the challenges and aspirations of writing for a living but not yet making enough income from it.
  2. The author shares their top ten favorite pieces written in 2023, discussing various topics from AI in art to the struggles of indie writers in the literary world.
  3. Predictions for 2024 include memoirs and Substacks created by AI, highlighting the evolving nature of technology's impact on self-expression and literature.

What You Can't Say (About AI)

The Algorithmic Bridge • 212 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
🕹 Technology AI Ethics Predictions Narratives Innovation
  1. Moral fashions restrict what can be said and thought about, and going against them can lead to serious consequences.
  2. In AI communities, there are unspoken beliefs and ideas that people hesitate to express publicly, even within their own groups.
  3. Challenging current moral fashions in AI can lead to uncovering important future truths and insights.

What Are Eight Games in the Premier League Really Worth?

No Grass in the Clouds • 179 implied HN points • 20 Oct 23
🎾 Sports Soccer Premier League Data Analysis Team performance Predictions
  1. Expected goals (xG) are a powerful indicator of team quality and future performance in the Premier League.
  2. The ultimate title winner in the Premier League often has the best xG differential at even strength.
  3. Looking at xG differentials can provide insights into the top-four race in the Premier League.

Patterns and Predictions for 2024

The Intersection • 98 implied HN points • 20 Dec 23
🕹 Technology AI Interfaces Creativity Automation Predictions
  1. Creativity is now decentralized, allowing anyone with the will and tenacity to create, thanks to technology advancement.
  2. Platforms still hold power over creators, and AI will continue to deindustrialize various types of work, transforming the landscape.
  3. The future holds doing more with less, the 10-80-10 rule of AI in content creation, and an interface shift in areas like search, commerce, and automotive.

Torricelli's Law for Fat Loss

Experimental Fat Loss • 127 implied HN points • 10 Mar 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Weight Loss Metabolism Diet Sleep Predictions
  1. Torricelli's Law for Fat Loss explains how weight loss can slow down as you approach your normal weight, similar to a bucket draining liquid with decreasing speed.
  2. Weight loss projections can be influenced by dietary changes and external factors, like daylight savings time affecting circadian rhythms and potentially affecting weight loss plateaus.
  3. Testing multiple weight loss projections, such as following a fitted curve and intuition-based predictions, can help in anticipating weight loss outcomes and adjusting dietary strategies.

VC Market: 3 takeaways from ‘23 and 4 predictions for ‘24

Inverted J Curves • 78 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
💼 Business Venture Capital Startups Predictions Funding Investments
  1. Global VC investments decreased in 2023, especially in European tech.
  2. Funding for European early-stage companies remained steady, with higher valuations at pre-Series A companies.
  3. In the New Nordics, climate tech attracted the most funding, with predictions for a fundraising frenzy in 2024 and higher bar for early-stage funding.

Why Didn't Stanley Kubrick & Arthur C. Clarke Predict The iPad?

1517 Fund • 121 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Predictions Computing History Innovation
  1. Kubrick and Clarke came close to predicting the iPad in 2001: A Space Odyssey, but paper still played a big role in their vision, showing the challenge of imagining the shift to portable computers.
  2. The prediction of flat screens in 2001 was impressive considering they didn't exist at the time; RCA's pursuit of flat-panel technology likely influenced this foresight.
  3. Despite their brilliance, Kubrick and Clarke didn't fully predict the iPad because they were constrained by the prevalent mainframe computing environment and underestimated the advancements in miniaturization and portable computing.

Past Futures: How Victorian Londoners Predicted 21st Century Tech

Londonist: Time Machine • 119 implied HN points • 27 Sep 23
💾 History Technology Predictions
  1. Victorian Londoners made predictions about modern technology like mobile phones and video calls.
  2. In the late 19th and early 20th century, predictions were made about modern communications such as video conferencing and mobile phones.
  3. Back in history, foresight about rapid technological progress was more insightful than we might think.

24 Predictions for 2024

Situation Normal • 115 implied HN points • 07 Jan 24
😂 Humor Predictions
  1. Predictions made for 2024 include fun and relatable scenarios.
  2. The predictions range from daily life experiences to societal trends.
  3. The author humorously forecasts events like excessive cream cheese on bagels and ongoing struggles with technology.

Why Can't We Run the Economy Better?

Inland Nobody • 80 implied HN points • 10 Mar 24
💰 Finance Economics Economic Growth Predictions Global impact
  1. Economics is a challenging field due to the numerous variables involved in predicting and understanding economic outcomes.
  2. The history of economic growth shows that sustained worldwide economic growth is a relatively recent development, starting around 1820.
  3. Predicting economic trends is complex, similar to predicting the weather, due to the vast number of interconnected variables that can influence economic behavior.

Some predictions about the future of AI safety and EA if the current trajectory continues

Philosophy bear • 92 implied HN points • 24 Nov 23
📖 Philosophy AI safety Effective Altruism Politics Predictions
  1. AI safety could become a left-wing issue, with corporations unlikely to sustain alliances with safety proponents in the long run.
  2. There may be a split within Effective Altruism due to relationships with corporations, leading to a 'left' and 'right' division.
  3. The AI safety field might divide into accommodationist and regulation-leaning factions, reflecting broader political trends.

LLM links, 2/27

In My Tribe • 91 implied HN points • 27 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Models Systems Predictions
  1. Compound AI systems are proving more effective than individual AI models, showing that combining different components can lead to better results.
  2. Providing extensive context can enhance AI capabilities, enabling new use cases and more effective training through models like Sora.
  3. The emergence of an AI computer virus is predicted to become a major concern, potentially causing widespread panic and technological shutdowns.

Calibration of Sports Betting Markets

Mike’s Blog • 39 implied HN points • 07 Nov 23
🎾 Sports Analysis Betting Calibration Market Predictions
  1. Calibration plots show how accurate forecasts are by comparing predicted probabilities to actual outcomes.
  2. Sports betting markets are remarkably well-calibrated based on analysis of MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL, and NCAA data from 2016-2020.
  3. Implied probabilities in sports betting are normalized for analysis, where they sum to 1, to compare prediction accuracy.

Here comes 2022

Diane Francis • 199 implied HN points • 03 Jan 22
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Predictions Optimism Trends Analysis News
  1. It's a good idea to stay optimistic, especially at the start of a new year. Positive thinking can help set a good tone for the months ahead.
  2. Many predictions are made at this time, but it's important to focus on what we can control. Preparing for the future while staying adaptable is key.
  3. Regular updates and newsletters can help keep people informed and engaged. It's great to have consistent communication, especially during changing times.

When No One Can Work, What Will We Do?

Tessa Fights Robots • 87 implied HN points • 31 May 23
📖 Philosophy Predictions Challenges Healing Spirituality Existence
  1. The decline in physical health and cognitive ability may impact the way we work and function in society.
  2. There is a concern about the increasing toxicity in physical and spiritual health, leading to potential long-term consequences.
  3. Despite challenges and predictions, finding love and healing can help us navigate through difficult times.

All Hail the Homer

House of Strauss • 28 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🎾 Sports Analysis Fandom Predictions
  1. Being a "homer" can lead to more accurate predictions about your favorite team
  2. Assess opinions based on substance, not on perceived bias or motives
  3. Interest in an outcome can enhance understanding and knowledge, outweighing potential bias