The hottest Public Opinion Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top U.S. Politics Topics

Dingus of the week: RFK Jr.

Men Yell at Me • 353 implied HN points • 08 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. RFK Jr. has cut funding for important mRNA vaccine research, which many experts see as a dangerous move. This kind of action can really hurt public health efforts.
  2. NPR often uses calm headlines to describe serious issues, making headlines sound less alarming than they actually are. It’s like they are gently delivering bad news.
  3. Taking breaks for self-care, like paddleboarding, is important. Sometimes you just need to step back and relax, even if it means having a little meltdown.

We need to talk about micro-treason

Jeff Giesea • 219 implied HN points • 08 May 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Using TikTok can be seen as a security risk because it is owned by a Chinese company. Many people believe it could contribute to a national security threat if many users stay connected.
  2. The idea of 'micro-treason' is introduced to describe small actions that collectively make a country vulnerable. This term helps us discuss the impact of seemingly harmless behaviors.
  3. It's important for society to be more aware of actions that could harm national security, even if those actions seem small at an individual level. We need to have conversations about these issues to protect our country.

I Highly Recommend Adam Jentleson’s Critique Of Adam Jentleson

Singal-Minded • 1326 implied HN points • 17 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Democrats need to focus on building a strong voting base to make a comeback in elections. They should aim for clear and ambitious electoral goals, like winning a large number of electoral votes.
  2. Interest groups can sometimes hurt the Democrats by pushing narrow agendas. Democrats should find a balance between supporting important causes and appealing to a wider audience.
  3. Political opinions and strategies can change over time. As the political landscape shifts, some politicians may backtrack on their earlier views to stay relevant, which can be frustrating for those who held steadfast positions.

There’s more herding in swing state polls than at a sheep farm in the Scottish Highlands

Silver Bulletin • 1434 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Many swing state polls show very close results, which seems suspicious. It's not normal for so many polls to match so closely in a tight race.
  2. Some pollsters lean towards the common opinion instead of reporting their own findings. This tendency to 'herd' can lead to less accurate overall polling results.
  3. Polling strategies may create pressure to avoid showing clear leads, causing inaccurate predictions. This can lead to surprises on election day, as true voter sentiment might not be reflected.

The Overshoot

Comment is Freed • 74 implied HN points • 16 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Public Opinion
  1. Net migration has fallen rapidly back to pre-Brexit levels and could keep declining, possibly turning into net emigration in the next few years.
  2. A sustained drop in migration risks harming the economy, creating labour shortages in critical sectors, and may force higher taxes to cover the shortfall.
  3. Politics and public opinion lag behind the data, so migration will stay a headline issue for a while, but the grievance fueling the right may weaken as numbers fall and reshape the political narrative before the next election.
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The Timing of Abundance

Bet On It • 387 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Timing can significantly affect a book's success, especially during election years when media attention is hard to get.
  2. Housing regulation often focuses on the negatives, ignoring the many benefits of more housing, such as more job and social opportunities.
  3. Governments should encourage more housing development instead of restricting it, as this can help improve communities and reduce poverty.

Outlawing Price Gouging Will Only Hurt Angelenos

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1052 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Outlawing price hikes might seem fair, but it can actually hurt people more. When prices are kept too low, it can lead to shortages of essential items.
  2. Politicians often react to disasters by blaming businesses for high prices, but this can have negative consequences. Price increases can help balance supply and demand during tough times.
  3. Making price gouging illegal might sound good, but it might actually make it harder for people to find the supplies they need during emergencies.

Best of Wrong Side of History #67

Wrong Side of History • 303 implied HN points • 11 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Sri Lanka is a beautiful country with friendly people, but it has a troubled history that contrasts sharply with its lovely scenery.
  2. There is a debate about allowing 16 and 17 year olds to vote while still treating them as children in other areas of life, like getting a tattoo or drinking alcohol.
  3. The UK is struggling with issues of identity and diversity, especially in how its history and heroes are represented, which could impact national unity.

What Elon and H*tler really have in common

The Rubesletter by Matt Ruby (of Vooza) | Sent every Tuesday • 998 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Elon Musk and Hitler are both criticized for their controversial behaviors. Some people think their actions are alarming and must be taken seriously.
  2. The discussion around their actions often mixes humor and harsh reality. It's easier to joke about difficult subjects rather than directly confront them.
  3. Understanding people's behaviors, especially in the case of public figures, requires empathy and careful consideration. It's important to look beyond surface actions.

Betting on Chaos: Professional Political Gamblers

ChinaTalk • 340 implied HN points • 29 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Prediction markets, like Polymarket and Kalshi, allow people to bet on political events, offering a unique way to gauge public sentiment and forecast outcomes. These markets can draw significant interest and money, sometimes reaching millions in trading volume.
  2. To succeed in prediction markets, a trader needs to stay informed and research past events to make educated bets. Success often comes from fast thinking and separating personal feelings from market decisions.
  3. As prediction markets grow, there are concerns about insider trading and ethical boundaries. Regulators may step in as the impacts of these markets on real-world events become more pronounced.

The German Establishment’s Last Chance

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 871 implied HN points • 24 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. A lot of Germans voted recently, and the focus was mainly on immigration issues. This shows how important the topic is for many people right now.
  2. The Alternative for Germany, or AfD, gained a lot of support, highlighting their strong stance on immigration. This raised concerns about how mainstream parties might respond to such a shift in voter priorities.
  3. Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats won the election but didn't get as many votes as expected. This could mean challenges ahead for them in addressing the rising support for the AfD.

January 17, 2026

Letters from an American • 33 implied HN points • 18 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The president announced tariffs on countries protecting Greenland to force a sale, using economic coercion rather than economic rationale and risking a trade war with U.S. allies.
  2. European leaders and citizens pushed back hard, with emergency EU meetings, threats of countermeasures, and large protests in Copenhagen and Nuuk, while other countries like Canada are moving ahead with independent trade ties.
  3. The administration’s broader authoritarian tactics — proposing a U.S.-led "Board of Peace," launching politicized investigations, and deploying agents against protesters — are drawing legal limits and eroding public support.

More Americans now worry about paying for healthcare than housing or anything else

Unreported Truths • 27 implied HN points • 29 Jan 26
🏥 Health Politics Public Opinion
  1. More Americans now list affording medical care as their top financial worry, even above housing and transportation.
  2. Concern about healthcare costs crosses party lines and many voters distrust both major parties to fix it, making the issue politically potent.
  3. Democrats favor expanding subsidies and coverage while Republicans face hard choices, and entrenched health-industry power makes big reform risky even though a simple, bold message could win voter support.

The reason of crowds

Wrong Side of History • 436 implied HN points • 18 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. People often hide their true feelings in a dictatorship because they fear punishment. This leads to a situation where everyone thinks they are alone in their beliefs, even when many share the same opinion.
  2. Once a few individuals find safety in expressing their true thoughts, it can create a chain reaction. This 'preference falsification cascade' can lead to rapid change, like revolutions, when many join in revealing their real feelings.
  3. Sometimes, people who were neutral or even against a regime will quickly switch sides to avoid repercussions. This can lead to extreme actions from those who were once passive, just to align with what seems to be the winning side.

Not Right, Not-Left, Just Online

Default Wisdom • 281 implied HN points • 18 Aug 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The rise of alt-media has changed how people get their news, especially since COVID. Many distrust traditional media and turn to alternative sources now.
  2. There are new groups forming within the political landscape, like those who feel lost after Trump's impact on the right. They're searching for a new place in media and politics.
  3. Left-leaning media is trying to catch up by creating its own alternative platforms to attract audiences who are frustrated with existing options.

January 22, 2026

Letters from an American • 27 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Many Americans disapprove of ICE after violent federal raids in Minnesota, including the killing of Renee Good, and community groups are staging an “ICE Out Day” to protest.
  2. A New York Times/Siena poll shows Trump underwater on approval and on almost every issue, and he has reacted by attacking polling and threatening lawsuits against media outlets and banks.
  3. Former special counsel Jack Smith testified that his team found proof beyond a reasonable doubt that Trump engaged in criminal activity, while House Republicans largely sought to discredit him instead of engaging with the evidence.

How Silver Bulletin calculates our polling averages

Silver Bulletin • 28 implied HN points • 22 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. They include almost every professional poll but exclude known fake surveys, hobbyist/DIY polls, polls that use MRP-style smoothing, and polls with leading questions, while internal or campaign polls are allowed if they meet standards.
  2. Each poll is weighted by the pollster’s rating, sample size (with diminishing returns), and recency, and the model caps a firm’s influence so one pollster can’t flood the average; the final averages are produced with local polynomial regression tuned to avoid over- or under-smoothing.
  3. The averages are adjusted for persistent "house effects" through an iterative process (with a small partisan prior applied to explicitly partisan polls), and the generic ballot is translated into state benchmarks using a partisan-lean score combined with a state-specific "elasticity" that measures how swingy each state is.

Election Countdown, 17 Days to Go: Ground Truths That Matter.

Breaking the News • 1295 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. JD Vance is becoming an important political figure, backed by powerful individuals like Peter Thiel and Elon Musk. Many believe he could take on a bigger role if Trump isn't able to continue in politics.
  2. Fox News is showing more of its true colors as a platform for opinion, rather than unbiased news. Recent interactions, especially with Kamala Harris, highlight their tendency to present misleading narratives.
  3. Sometimes, less experienced questioners can do a better job than seasoned pros. They might ask more straightforward and relevant questions, leading to clearer discussions.

Israel vs. Everybody

Nonzero Newsletter • 361 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Israel is continuing its military actions in Lebanon and Syria, claiming they are necessary for national security. This situation is tense and has resulted in many casualties despite agreements for ceasefire.
  2. AI technology is developing quickly, including farms running with little human involvement and new undersea data centers for energy efficiency. These technologies are both exciting and pose new challenges.
  3. International views on the US and China are shifting, with more countries viewing China positively. This change might be linked to political shifts in the US.

Disaffected tonight at 8

Disaffected Newsletter • 639 implied HN points • 28 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The findings from George Floyd's autopsy suggest he wasn't killed by police, citing high fentanyl levels instead of suffocation.
  2. There's a troubling trend where young people feel emboldened to commit violent acts without fear of consequences, leading to tragic outcomes.
  3. Many people shared personal experiences of growing up with a parent who has Borderline Personality Disorder, highlighting the challenges it brings.

Will Trump Learn from the Epstein Affair?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 338 implied HN points • 21 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Trump had a good start to July 2025 with military successes and legislation but faced unexpected challenges with the Epstein case.
  2. The announcement about Epstein stirred controversy within Trump's administration and among his supporters, leading to divided opinions.
  3. Ultimately, Trump managed to regain control of the narrative by uniting his followers against the media and Democrats, demonstrating his influence over his base.

Nobody Votes for Podcasters

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 347 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Some people think Trump has turned his back on the working-class voters who supported him. They feel he hasn't kept important promises, especially on immigration and social policies.
  2. Critics say that Trump's recent actions, like supporting Israel and changing tax policies, align more with traditional Republican ideas than the 'America First' approach he campaigned on.
  3. These opinions about Trump's betrayal show a misunderstanding of today's political landscape in America, where many factors come into play beyond just promises made during a campaign.

Trans Activists Are Society’s Most Accomplished Transphobes

American Dreaming • 339 implied HN points • 18 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The rise of trans activism has led to a big backlash in public support, with many people questioning trans rights more than ever. This backlash is affecting how society views not just trans issues but also broader LGBT rights.
  2. Many trans people are not involved in the activist movement, and they just want to live peacefully without facing discrimination or anger from others. Unfortunately, the aggressive tactics of some activists have turned the public against them.
  3. It's important to understand that people's feelings about trans issues are changing, with fewer people in favor of trans rights today compared to previous years. This shift could mean setbacks in the progress made for trans and LGBT individuals.

Chartbook 329 Yelling at the TV - The non-debate about climate in the US Presidential debate and what it hides.

Chartbook • 1244 implied HN points • 23 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The US presidential candidates aren't talking much about climate change, even as extreme weather events keep happening. This shows how climate issues are largely ignored in political debates.
  2. Both Trump and Harris seem to agree on the need for more energy production, but they approach energy policy very differently. This creates a situation where neither candidate is fully addressing climate change solutions.
  3. There’s a growing coalition in the US that supports new energy solutions, from renewable energy to nuclear power. This shows that despite political divides, many people want change in how energy is produced and consumed.

Are Trump Voters Misinformed, Or Were Harris Voters Just Not Given A Chance To Be Misinformed?

Singal-Minded • 1147 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Some surveys might show that Trump voters are more misinformed than Harris voters, but this could be due to bias in the questions asked.
  2. Americans often answer political questions based on feelings or general ideas rather than specific facts, so misinformation can come from both sides.
  3. The way questions are framed can lead to results that unfairly label one group as less informed than the other, proving we need balanced questions for fair evaluation.

The Tulsi Gabbard Smears Are Unfounded, Unfair, and Unhelpful

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1071 implied HN points • 01 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Criticism of Tulsi Gabbard often focuses on her views about foreign policy, particularly regarding Russia and Ukraine. It's important to discuss her ideas rather than question her motives.
  2. Some political figures label Gabbard as a Russian asset without strong evidence, which can seem unfair and extreme. This kind of labeling can distract from actual discussions about her policies.
  3. Gabbard's past statements about diplomacy with tyrants have raised eyebrows. Many feel that during times of aggression, like Russia's invasion of Ukraine, strong responses are necessary rather than calls for neutrality.

Six lessons from the 2024 election

Comment is Freed • 77 implied HN points • 03 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Public Opinion
  1. Campaign drama and memorable moments are often overvalued and don’t usually shift polls or decide elections. Polls are often stable for long periods, so single events rarely change the outcome.
  2. When votes do move, it’s frequently because of issue-driven polarization (like Brexit) rather than a leader suddenly winning new supporters, so apparent gains may not be a lasting realignment. Parties risk mismatch if their policies don’t fit the new voters they attract.
  3. Avoiding election myths requires careful, data-driven analysis and new thinking about a more fragmented electorate; media and campaign strategies should adapt to changes in polling and coverage.

Ukraine Support Holds

Diane Francis • 699 implied HN points • 10 Aug 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Support for Ukraine is strong among many countries, including the US and EU nations. Polls show that people want to continue helping Ukraine against Russia.
  2. Most Americans believe military aid to Ukraine is important, and a large majority oppose negotiations unless Russia withdraws first. This suggests a clear message that people want to see Ukraine win.
  3. Concerns about the security risks of helping Ukraine have decreased over time. Many European citizens also want stronger military ties and support for Ukraine as a united front against Russian aggression.

The Epstein Conspiracy Theorists Will Never Be Satisfied

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 338 implied HN points • 11 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Some people will always believe in conspiracy theories about Jeffrey Epstein, no matter the evidence. It's like trying to convince someone that a magic trick isn't real; they just won't accept it.
  2. Donald Trump raised doubts about Epstein's death, suggesting it might not have been a suicide. This was unusual for a president and got people talking.
  3. Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein's associate, was found guilty of serious crimes and is now in prison. Yet, the questions about the case seem to continue to hang over everything.

White House May Have Violated Presidential Records Act By Altering Biden’s “Garbage” Remark In Transcript

Michael Shellenberger • 1123 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The White House may have changed Biden's words in a transcript, which could break the Presidential Records Act. It looks like they tried to soft-pedal a remark he made about Trump supporters.
  2. Biden was caught on video saying that the 'only garbage' he sees is related to Trump's supporters, despite attempts to clarify it afterward. This has led to mixed messages from the White House and media.
  3. Past Democratic leaders, like Obama and Clinton, have also made negative comments about Trump voters, indicating a pattern of disdain within the party towards those who support the opposite side.

OSD 352: “Gun rights are winning and nobody has realized it”, 2025 edition

Open Source Defense • 84 implied HN points • 20 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Support for gun rights has trended upward for decades and jumped during the 2020 buying boom, though recent polls suggest that growth has mostly leveled off.
  2. Concealed carry has essentially won across the country—most states are now shall-issue or permitless, leaving very few places with meaningful carry bans.
  3. The AR-15 has become the dominant civilian rifle, and while gun-control groups have narrowed their public messaging, they still score legislative wins and exert pressure on manufacturers.

What Will it Take for New York to Elect a Republican?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 375 implied HN points • 23 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. New York City is focused on its Democratic mayoral primary, which many believe could lead to a far-left candidate winning the nomination.
  2. The current Democratic mayor, Eric Adams, is very unpopular, and that might create an opportunity for Republicans to gain traction.
  3. Despite the challenges the Democrats face, a Republican named Curtis Sliwa is unlikely to win in the upcoming election, even with potential discontent among voters.

The breaking of the spell

Wrong Side of History • 346 implied HN points • 27 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Many people avoid speaking the truth due to fear of social consequences. This can change when they stop worrying about backlash.
  2. Shame is used to keep people silent about their true opinions. When enough people stop fearing this shame, things can shift.
  3. In Britain, there's a sense that the public is starting to break away from this fear. This change can lead to new possibilities in politics.

It's 2004 all over again

Silver Bulletin • 1093 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Democrats are feeling stronger about their chances after recent elections, similar to how they felt in 2004. They believe they can regain control and improve their strategy moving forward.
  2. Trump, like Bush in his second term, may face challenges and unpopularity. Many voters who supported him might not be as forgiving now that he no longer has to run for elections.
  3. The electoral playing field has become more balanced for Democrats. With fewer structural disadvantages, they are optimistic about competing for Senate and House seats in future elections.

January 10, 2026

Letters from an American • 33 implied HN points • 11 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. A leaked cell-phone video meant to justify a federal agent’s actions instead showed a woman smiling and then being shot, undermining the administration’s narrative and provoking public outrage.
  2. The administration is rapidly expanding and militarizing ICE and Border Patrol—replacing leaders, recruiting thousands of new agents, and deploying heavily armed units—which raises civil‑rights and oversight concerns.
  3. The crisis has been politically weaponized against Minnesota and Somali-American communities through rhetoric, funding cuts, and restricted congressional access, sparking nationwide protests and a sharp drop in ICE’s public approval.

Bibi, bunker busters, and booty calls

The Rubesletter by Matt Ruby (of Vooza) | Sent every Tuesday • 356 implied HN points • 24 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu affects the Jewish community in different ways. It's important to understand how these political connections influence opinions and actions.
  2. The discussion also touches on foreign policy issues like Iran and immigration. These topics are complex and can have significant impacts on domestic and international relations.
  3. Other themes mentioned, like lifestyle choices and cultural references, highlight the mix of politics and everyday life. It's interesting to see how these different areas blend together in conversations.

A Killing In Context

Gideon's Substack • 33 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. The killing is tragic and echoes past incidents where state agents killed civilians. What makes this moment dangerous is that high-level officials and federal agencies seem to be prejudging and politicizing the case, which threatens fair investigation and accountability.
  2. Protests should aim to create real political risk for officials who enable abusive policies by persuading the undecided or weakly-opposed to move into strong opposition. In practice that means organizing to shift public opinion and pressuring the specific officeholders whose support enables the behavior being protested.
  3. Restoring trust in neutral, impartial justice is essential because liberal democracy relies on fair institutions. Protesters can’t assume broad public faith in those principles, so they must both demand accountability and work to rebuild confidence in impartial rule of law.

Trump, Mamdani, and Cluely

Kyla’s Newsletter • 339 implied HN points • 25 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Attention is becoming the main resource in politics and economies. It shapes what gets funded or noticed.
  2. Narratives matter a lot - powerful stories can influence public opinion and decision-making. The right message can win elections and funding.
  3. Speculation is how we test ideas before they happen. People are making bets on what they think will be important in the future, which affects how resources are used.

The Kamala Interview

Points And Figures • 1172 implied HN points • 17 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion
  1. Kamala Harris didn't perform well during her interview. Many commentators noticed her lack of effectiveness in answering questions.
  2. Some people tried to find positive aspects in her responses, but the overall reaction was mostly negative. Her interview may be used in ads to highlight her long-winded answers.
  3. The discussion about her personality and presence was critical, with some finding her annoying. This could affect how undecided voters view her.