The hottest Risk Substack posts right now

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Why I'm Suspicious of AI X-Risk

The Walters File • 0 implied HN points • 23 Sep 23
🔬 Science Technology AI Risk Experts History
  1. Thomas Malthus' failed predictions about population collapse due to lack of food production highlight the importance of human ingenuity and adaptation.
  2. Historical panics like Y2K and overpopulation have turned out to be false alarms, raising skepticism about modern fears of AI extinction risk.
  3. AI concerns should consider real-world evidence of harm as AI capabilities grow, the skepticism surrounding expert predictions, and the existing safeguards and regulations in place.

Peak Performance Newsletter #19 | Aggressive Goal-setting, Non-Dual Thinking, and Embracing Risk for Growth

The Leadership Lab • 0 implied HN points • 17 Jan 22
📖 Philosophy Goal setting Risk
  1. Setting aggressive goals challenges us to grow beyond our current limits and embrace progress.
  2. Shifting from 'or' level-thinking to 'and' level-thinking opens up new possibilities and challenges assumptions about tradeoffs.
  3. Embracing risks can lead to breakthroughs in personal growth, as breakdowns can be gateways to transformation and increased capacity.
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Peak Performance Newsletter #2 | The Passionate Performance Paradox and Dopamine Fasts

The Leadership Lab • 0 implied HN points • 30 Sep 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Performance Mindfulness Addiction Fear Risk
  1. When pursuing something you're passionate about, initial performance may decrease due to facing new fears and vulnerabilities.
  2. Fixating on risks can harm performance and hinder opportunities; it's essential to set boundaries for assessing risks.
  3. To maintain performance with risk, track it at intervals that mitigate ruin, and balance between your long-term vision and daily actions.

A whole heap of AI news

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 12 Nov 23
🕹 Technology AI Regulation Risk
  1. The new AI Executive Orders are heavily critiqued for their lack of embracing uncertainty, trust in human capability, and dictating innovation outcomes.
  2. OpenAI introduces a tool that allows users to create ChatBots without coding, an interesting advancement in AI accessibility.
  3. A new AI wearable device called AI pin aims to replace traditional phones, projecting information on the user's hand, signaling possible future tech advancements.

They say AI is going to be the End of Us ... Again

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 30 May 23
🕹 Technology AI Risk Existential Ethics
  1. Some AI experts have raised concerns about the risks associated with AI, emphasizing the need to prioritize mitigating these risks alongside other existential threats like pandemics and nuclear war.
  2. The statement by the experts has sparked discussions on whether allocating resources to mitigating AI risks should be as high of a priority as addressing other more immediate and evident threats.
  3. While acknowledging the importance of considering AI existential risks, the argument is made that currently, these risks are still largely hypothetical and should be approached with caution in terms of resource allocation.

AI pioneer, Geoff Hinton, has changed his mind

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 02 May 23
🕹 Technology AI Ethics Risk Policy Development
  1. Geoff Hinton, an AI pioneer, has transitioned from working to improve prediction machines to expressing concern about the risks posed by advanced AI technology, including the potential flood of fake information on the internet.
  2. Hinton's short-run concern involves the influx of false content online, leading to doubts about the truthfulness of information, but he anticipates a future equilibrium where trusted sources will emerge to combat misinformation.
  3. In the long run, Hinton worries about the unforeseen behaviors AI systems may learn, the potential threat they pose to humanity, and the ethical implications of advanced AI technologies affecting jobs and posing existential risks.

More on Vaccine Shopping

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 05 Mar 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Vaccines Public Health Anxiety Risk Pandemic
  1. Consider getting the first available vaccine rather than waiting for a 'better' one, as all vaccines help prevent severe illness.
  2. Factors like fear of getting sick with Covid-19 and fear of infecting others influence decisions on vaccine choice and timing.
  3. Public health officials should provide realistic information and choice on vaccine types to address individual preferences while considering public allocation rationale.

Running AMOC

Surfing the Future • 0 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🔬 Science Climate Oceanography Research Risk
  1. The ocean/atmosphere system is already changing, and latest studies suggest these changes may have dire implications for the world.
  2. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is at risk of an abrupt shift that could impact global climate regulation.
  3. An article on this topic is recommended reading for political, business leaders, and investors globally.

How I'm trying to be more lucky with my startup

Eddie's startup voyage • 0 implied HN points • 02 Dec 22
💼 Business Entrepreneurship Startup Luck Risk Success
  1. Luck can be categorized into different types, such as blind luck, luck created by motion, luck created by skill, and luck created by reputation. Each type requires different approaches to increase the likelihood of experiencing luck.
  2. Fortune favors the bold - taking action and moving towards your goals can increase your chances of creating your own luck. Being in the right place at the right time can lead to fortunate outcomes.
  3. Building on skills and reputation can attract luck. By honing your craft and becoming well-known for your expertise, you can open doors to exciting opportunities that bring success and fulfillment.

About that ISDA Pt 6(b): Section 2(a)(iii): the problems

The Jolly Contrarian • 0 implied HN points • 23 May 24
💰 Finance Derivatives Legal Risk Regulation Market
  1. Section 2(a)(iii) in the ISDA agreement is flawed and has caused confusion and litigation since 1987
  2. There are no specific triggers for Section 2(a)(iii) in ISDA, leading to uncertainty and challenges in determining when it is actually activated
  3. Section 2(a)(iii) may not be relevant in modern times due to changes in how swap exposures are managed, making the clause potentially unnecessary

Alternatives to the CAPM: Part 4: Market-Implied cost of equity

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 30 Apr 11
💰 Finance Equity Investment Valuation Risk Models Investing Valuation Equity Risk management Market Theory
  1. You can calculate the market-implied cost of equity using a simple dividend discount model, which helps you understand if a stock is fairly priced. This method allows you to figure out the expected return on a stock based on its price and future dividends.
  2. Comparing the market-implied cost of equity to a conventional one can help you decide whether to invest in a stock. If the market-implied cost is much higher than your estimate, it might mean the stock is riskier or less attractive.
  3. You can use the market-implied cost of equity for an entire sector so that you have a uniform measure for evaluating companies in that sector. This approach can make it easier to compare different companies without getting lost in individual risks.

Currency Choices in Valuation

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 16 Apr 10
💰 Finance Valuation Currency Risk Investment Analysis Valuation Currency Risk management Investment Analysis Financial Statements
  1. You should value a company in the currency that is easiest for you to access information in. It shouldn't matter which currency you choose because the company's value should stay the same.
  2. Your discount rate is influenced by the currency you select, especially the risk-free rate, which varies with inflation. Always ensure your cash flows and discount rate are in the same currency.
  3. To avoid currency confusion, you can analyze in real terms, using real discount rates and cash flows. It's important to stick with your initial currency choice throughout the analysis.