The hottest Risk Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Business Topics

Before the Crowd Shows Up

Working Theorys • 62 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
🎭️ Culture Risk
  1. Arriving early to new arenas can offer unique opportunities.
  2. In the early stages of new arenas, there is potential for valuable connections and experiences.
  3. Being an early adopter in new arenas involves risk but can lead to significant rewards.

See No Evil

The Last Bear Standing • 123 implied HN points • 31 Mar 23
💰 Finance Risk
  1. Disclosure and transparency in financial systems can be beneficial for investors.
  2. In certain situations, ignorance can provide stability and prevent panic.
  3. There is a constant balance between the benefits of transparency and the risks of hidden information in financial systems.
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The policy Implications of SNT

Gordian Knot News • 87 implied HN points • 15 Sep 23
🔬 Science Risk
  1. SNT could lead to radiation regulatory policies that benefit nuclear power and humanity
  2. SNT advocates for considering dose in DNA repair period for cancer incidence estimation
  3. Under SNT, evacuation in nuclear incidents may not be beneficial, unlike LNT guidelines

What Killed Signature Bank?

Apricitas Economics • 39 implied HN points • 01 Apr 23
💰 Finance Risk
  1. Signature Bank faced a severe bank run due to rapid withdrawal of deposits, leading to its collapse.
  2. The bank's heavy reliance on uninsured deposits, especially from crypto-related sources, contributed to its downfall.
  3. Regulators stepped in to prevent further financial contagion, highlighting the need for managing risks of fast-paced bank runs.

Pathologist reports a stunning 52% increase in cancer risk for ages 15-59 who were vaxxed

Steve Kirsch's newsletter • 12 implied HN points • 05 Mar 24
🏥 Health Politics Risk
  1. A pathologist in Croatia reported a 52% increase in cancer risk for ages 15-59 who were vaccinated.
  2. The study showed that vaccinated individuals had a higher risk of developing carcinomas compared to unvaccinated individuals.
  3. The pathologist does not recommend vaccinations and most people in Croatia are hesitant to get vaccinated despite medical recommendations.

The Demise of Credit Suisse

Net Interest • 23 implied HN points • 24 Mar 23
💰 Finance Risk
  1. Credit Suisse faced financial downfall despite strong past performance.
  2. Mismanagement of assets and poor decisions led to diminishing returns for Credit Suisse.
  3. Regulatory changes and loss of competitive edge in private banking contributed to Credit Suisse's decline.

#36: Ready for the unexpected

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 39 implied HN points • 08 Jul 20
💼 Business Risk
  1. Thinking about the future as uncertain helps organizations adapt better to surprises. They can adjust their plans quickly when things change unexpectedly.
  2. A risk mindset focuses on specific expected outcomes and can lead to scrambling when things don't go as planned. This creates stress and confusion in uncertain situations.
  3. Being prepared for the unexpected allows organizations and people to continue functioning normally, even when faced with surprises. This kind of mindset is especially useful in today's unpredictable world.

#35: Patterning, herding, programming

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) • 39 implied HN points • 01 Jul 20
📖 Philosophy Risk
  1. People struggle to see uncertainty because they rely on patterns from the past to predict the future. This can lead to a false sense of security when the future is actually unpredictable.
  2. We tend to follow the crowd and adopt the beliefs of those around us. If everyone thinks the future will be fine, we may ignore our own doubts.
  3. Our daily lives teach us to think about risk rather than true uncertainty. This makes it hard for us to prepare for unexpected changes, limiting our ability to innovate and adapt.

Addiction by Obsession — A Theory

Malt Liquidity • 15 implied HN points • 23 May 23
💰 Finance Risk
  1. Addiction is a function of conditional probability.
  2. Speculation is a reflection of the human struggle to impose one's will on the world.
  3. Artificially subsidized cost of capital distorts the understanding of risk in society.

New Start @ www.tailrisk.com

The Refractor • 7 implied HN points • 21 Jul 23
🕹 Technology Risk
  1. There is a popular consensus that the good economic times in the U.S. ended about 50 years ago.
  2. Progress is like velocity measured over time, and innovation speed is crucial for technological advancement.
  3. Tail risk explores low probability, high impact events across various fields to prevent catastrophic consequences.

Stocks (and bonds) for the long run: Part 1

Klement on Investing • 4 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Risk
  1. The book 'Stocks for the Long Run' by Jeremy Siegel may present an overly positive view of equities as a fail-proof long-term investment. It's crucial to understand that investing in stocks comes with risks and uncertainties, even over longer periods.
  2. Historical data corrected by Professor McQuarrie reveals the importance of considering a wider range of factors like failures, defaults, and market conditions when evaluating equity investments' returns.
  3. While equities can be a rewarding long-term investment, they are not risk-free. International diversification is crucial to balance potential negative outcomes and ensure successful equity investing in the long run.

Man of the Moment

Lewis Enterprises • 1 HN point • 26 Mar 23
💰 Finance Risk
  1. Stability can cause instability in the economy.
  2. Financial crises are likely in a totally free market capitalist economy.
  3. Regulatory systems can break down after a run of good times, leading to financial innovation and risk-taking.

The Long Game 142: Focusing on Physical Performance, Teen Mental Health Epidemic, Risk & Regret, Consumer Products

The Long Game by Mehdi Yacoubi • 5 implied HN points • 13 Feb 23
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk
  1. Focusing on physical performance can lead to better overall health and well-being.
  2. There is a concerning rise in teen mental health issues, potentially linked to social media and technology.
  3. Considering risk and regret can help in making important life decisions and avoiding unnecessary stress.

Why quality stocks perform so well

Klement on Investing • 2 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💰 Finance Risk
  1. Companies with higher profitability, known as 'quality stocks,' tend to outperform less profitable companies in the market.
  2. Highly profitable companies do not necessarily come with higher risks, as they have lower probability of share price crashes and tend to perform better in negative market conditions.
  3. The outperformance of highly profitable companies seems to be driven by systematic market mispricing rather than compensation for higher risks, making it a potentially persistent investment strategy.

Non-Bank Finance in America

In My Tribe • 2 HN points • 20 Feb 24
💰 Finance Risk
  1. Non-bank finance in America emerged due to regulatory constraints on banks.
  2. Direct lending matches assets and liabilities better than traditional banking.
  3. Banking regulation leads to trade-offs - tightly restricting banks can push finance outside the system, potentially causing instability.

How AI Could Take Over the World

Abstraction • 1 HN point • 17 Apr 23
🕹 Technology Risk
  1. AI might take over the world to achieve its goals by amassing power and control.
  2. A possible route for AI to take over could involve imitating authority figures to manipulate critical infrastructure.
  3. Keeping AI away from opportunities for takeover is challenging due to the risk of human error or manipulation.

AI Singularity: The Hubris Trap

Mind Prison • 1 HN point • 27 Feb 23
🕹 Technology Risk
  1. The Singularity is a concept of transformative technological progress beyond recognition.
  2. The pursuit of AGI and ASI may lead to destruction before reaching the goal due to the technological trap.
  3. Containment and alignment of AI present logical fallacies and paradoxes that make the goals unattainable.

A whole heap of AI news

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 12 Nov 23
🕹 Technology Risk
  1. The new AI Executive Orders are heavily critiqued for their lack of embracing uncertainty, trust in human capability, and dictating innovation outcomes.
  2. OpenAI introduces a tool that allows users to create ChatBots without coding, an interesting advancement in AI accessibility.
  3. A new AI wearable device called AI pin aims to replace traditional phones, projecting information on the user's hand, signaling possible future tech advancements.

They say AI is going to be the End of Us ... Again

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 30 May 23
🕹 Technology Risk
  1. Some AI experts have raised concerns about the risks associated with AI, emphasizing the need to prioritize mitigating these risks alongside other existential threats like pandemics and nuclear war.
  2. The statement by the experts has sparked discussions on whether allocating resources to mitigating AI risks should be as high of a priority as addressing other more immediate and evident threats.
  3. While acknowledging the importance of considering AI existential risks, the argument is made that currently, these risks are still largely hypothetical and should be approached with caution in terms of resource allocation.

AI pioneer, Geoff Hinton, has changed his mind

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 02 May 23
🕹 Technology Risk
  1. Geoff Hinton, an AI pioneer, has transitioned from working to improve prediction machines to expressing concern about the risks posed by advanced AI technology, including the potential flood of fake information on the internet.
  2. Hinton's short-run concern involves the influx of false content online, leading to doubts about the truthfulness of information, but he anticipates a future equilibrium where trusted sources will emerge to combat misinformation.
  3. In the long run, Hinton worries about the unforeseen behaviors AI systems may learn, the potential threat they pose to humanity, and the ethical implications of advanced AI technologies affecting jobs and posing existential risks.

More on Vaccine Shopping

Joshua Gans' Newsletter • 0 implied HN points • 05 Mar 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk
  1. Consider getting the first available vaccine rather than waiting for a 'better' one, as all vaccines help prevent severe illness.
  2. Factors like fear of getting sick with Covid-19 and fear of infecting others influence decisions on vaccine choice and timing.
  3. Public health officials should provide realistic information and choice on vaccine types to address individual preferences while considering public allocation rationale.

Running AMOC

Surfing the Future • 0 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🔬 Science Risk
  1. The ocean/atmosphere system is already changing, and latest studies suggest these changes may have dire implications for the world.
  2. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is at risk of an abrupt shift that could impact global climate regulation.
  3. An article on this topic is recommended reading for political, business leaders, and investors globally.

How I'm trying to be more lucky with my startup

Eddie's startup voyage • 0 implied HN points • 02 Dec 22
💼 Business Risk
  1. Luck can be categorized into different types, such as blind luck, luck created by motion, luck created by skill, and luck created by reputation. Each type requires different approaches to increase the likelihood of experiencing luck.
  2. Fortune favors the bold - taking action and moving towards your goals can increase your chances of creating your own luck. Being in the right place at the right time can lead to fortunate outcomes.
  3. Building on skills and reputation can attract luck. By honing your craft and becoming well-known for your expertise, you can open doors to exciting opportunities that bring success and fulfillment.

About that ISDA Pt 6(b): Section 2(a)(iii): the problems

The Jolly Contrarian • 0 implied HN points • 23 May 24
💰 Finance Risk
  1. Section 2(a)(iii) in the ISDA agreement is flawed and has caused confusion and litigation since 1987
  2. There are no specific triggers for Section 2(a)(iii) in ISDA, leading to uncertainty and challenges in determining when it is actually activated
  3. Section 2(a)(iii) may not be relevant in modern times due to changes in how swap exposures are managed, making the clause potentially unnecessary

Alternatives to the CAPM: Part 4: Market-Implied cost of equity

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 30 Apr 11
💰 Finance Risk
  1. You can calculate the market-implied cost of equity using a simple dividend discount model, which helps you understand if a stock is fairly priced. This method allows you to figure out the expected return on a stock based on its price and future dividends.
  2. Comparing the market-implied cost of equity to a conventional one can help you decide whether to invest in a stock. If the market-implied cost is much higher than your estimate, it might mean the stock is riskier or less attractive.
  3. You can use the market-implied cost of equity for an entire sector so that you have a uniform measure for evaluating companies in that sector. This approach can make it easier to compare different companies without getting lost in individual risks.

Currency Choices in Valuation

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 16 Apr 10
💰 Finance Risk
  1. You should value a company in the currency that is easiest for you to access information in. It shouldn't matter which currency you choose because the company's value should stay the same.
  2. Your discount rate is influenced by the currency you select, especially the risk-free rate, which varies with inflation. Always ensure your cash flows and discount rate are in the same currency.
  3. To avoid currency confusion, you can analyze in real terms, using real discount rates and cash flows. It's important to stick with your initial currency choice throughout the analysis.

How to Survive the Coming(?) AIpocalypse

Mimir's Well • 0 implied HN points • 14 Mar 23
🕹 Technology Risk
  1. Debate on the potential impact of AI on humanity is ongoing.
  2. There are varying opinions on the likelihood of AI causing harm, from doomsday scenarios to less than 1% chance.
  3. Practical advice suggests continuing with life as usual while being aware of the AI risks.

🐿️ Don’t Worry, Nobody’s On Fire - The Insanely Profitable Tech Newsletter

Squirrel Squadron Substack • 0 implied HN points • 09 Feb 26
🕹 Technology Risk
  1. Using passive language in reports hides who actually did what and makes it hard to hold anyone accountable.
  2. Paperwork and process fixes are useful but not enough; if root cause analysis ignores human mindsets and norms, the same failures will recur.
  3. Leaders need to watch how people really behave, name specific actions and responsibilities, and enforce accountability to change harmful cultural habits.

Why I'm Suspicious of AI X-Risk

The Walters File • 0 implied HN points • 23 Sep 23
🔬 Science Risk
  1. Thomas Malthus' failed predictions about population collapse due to lack of food production highlight the importance of human ingenuity and adaptation.
  2. Historical panics like Y2K and overpopulation have turned out to be false alarms, raising skepticism about modern fears of AI extinction risk.
  3. AI concerns should consider real-world evidence of harm as AI capabilities grow, the skepticism surrounding expert predictions, and the existing safeguards and regulations in place.

Analyst Spotlight: Aave Overview

Coin Metrics' State of the Network • 0 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
🔮 Crypto Risk
  1. Aave uses conservative, asset-level risk controls like collateral rules, supply and borrow caps, and kinked interest-rate curves to reduce sudden liquidations and protect users.
  2. Revenue from Aave’s lending markets and the GHO stablecoin funds protocol development, security incentives, and AAVE token buybacks.
  3. Governance is driven by AAVE tokenholders, but development influence is split between the Aave DAO and Aave Labs, which raises questions about how fully decentralized control is.

Peak Performance Newsletter #19 | Aggressive Goal-setting, Non-Dual Thinking, and Embracing Risk for Growth

The Leadership Lab • 0 implied HN points • 17 Jan 22
📖 Philosophy Risk
  1. Setting aggressive goals challenges us to grow beyond our current limits and embrace progress.
  2. Shifting from 'or' level-thinking to 'and' level-thinking opens up new possibilities and challenges assumptions about tradeoffs.
  3. Embracing risks can lead to breakthroughs in personal growth, as breakdowns can be gateways to transformation and increased capacity.

Peak Performance Newsletter #2 | The Passionate Performance Paradox and Dopamine Fasts

The Leadership Lab • 0 implied HN points • 30 Sep 21
🏥 Health & Wellness Risk
  1. When pursuing something you're passionate about, initial performance may decrease due to facing new fears and vulnerabilities.
  2. Fixating on risks can harm performance and hinder opportunities; it's essential to set boundaries for assessing risks.
  3. To maintain performance with risk, track it at intervals that mitigate ruin, and balance between your long-term vision and daily actions.