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Predictions and Prophecies for 2026

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 1606 implied HN points • 26 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Technology Policy Political parties Economy Labor markets National Security
  1. Advances in AI will split people into two growing camps: optimists who expect big benefits and doomers who fear economic or existential harm.
  2. AI-driven investment will boost GDP and markets while creating a “jobless boom” that worsens inequality and increases energy demand; governments and the military-industrial complex will back AI, making a major market crash in 2026 unlikely.
  3. The 2026 midterm elections are predicted to flip Congress, with Democrats winning narrow majorities in both the House and Senate.

George Takei posed 5 important questions to me. Here are my answers

Robert Reich • 26297 implied HN points • 13 Jun 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Wealth Inequality Progressive politics Youth Engagement Systemic Issues
  1. The system of wealth allocation and generation is broken but can be fixed by learning from history and creating new political alliances.
  2. Creating a social safety net to eliminate poverty is possible through policies like universal basic income and wealth tax on the super-rich.
  3. America is experiencing parallels to the Gilded Age with the billionaire class amassing wealth and power, but potential for change lies in building the political will for progress.

Just for Xeets and Giggles (2.10.24)

The Status Kuo • 12539 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Policy Congress Media
  1. In a political event, candidate Dean Phillips experienced unexpected setbacks, despite his initial high expectations.
  2. The talk in the media about Black voters shifting support didn't translate into actual votes for other candidates.
  3. House Speaker MAGA Mike Johnson compared himself to Moses leading the GOP, sparking humor and mockery in response.
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The Media Keeps Trying to “Understand” Trump Voters Because They Don’t Want to Accept the Truth About Them

Bulwark+ • 14976 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Media Elections Partisanship Democracy Authoritarianism
  1. The media attempts to understand Trump voters but may not fully accept the truth about their motivations.
  2. Guardrails in democracy may not be enough to prevent certain actions of those seeking power.
  3. Google search influences web design, impacting user experience and content creation.

Domestic abuse at scale

Disaffected Newsletter • 2477 implied HN points • 03 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Psychology Social Behavior Public Discourse Civic Responsibility
  1. Domestic abuse often involves manipulation where the abuser takes advantage of the victim. This idea is compared to how governments and media influence and control people's beliefs and actions.
  2. People can internalize harmful beliefs, thinking they should give up their own needs for others. This is similar to children feeling they are to blame for their parent's anger.
  3. Many believe it's wrong to defend their interests, even if it harms them. This mindset can lead to voting against one's own best interests and accepting unfair treatment.

Immigration is not an "invasion", nor should it be

Noahpinion • 16706 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Policy Politics History Culture
  1. Immigration should not be viewed as an invasion. It's important to recognize that it's about people seeking better lives, not a threat to society.
  2. Both political sides often exaggerate the impacts of immigration for their agendas. This can make people feel scared or confused about the real issues.
  3. The concept of illegal immigration has become more complicated over time due to changes in laws and asylum rules, making it harder for the public to understand.

Tired of trash? Try new Wokespy!

Disaffected Newsletter • 1358 implied HN points • 31 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Media Critique Political Commentary Culture Wars Satire
  1. Wokespy.com provides daily short articles that poke fun at 'woke' culture. It's a light-hearted way to stay informed about current events.
  2. The content includes both written pieces and short videos, making it accessible in different formats.
  3. The site aims to share humorous takes on social issues, often highlighting bizarre or ridiculous stories in the news.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: Unleash Chiang Kai-Shek

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 84 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Rhetoric Republican Politics Foreign Policy Cold War Political History
  1. The slogan "unleash Chiang" referred to Chiang Kai‑shek and was a right‑wing Cold War line imagining he could be unleashed to retake mainland China.
  2. George H. W. Bush used "unleash Chang" as a joking, ironic taunt on the tennis court to mock that rhetoric, but his sons later repeated the phrase without understanding its origin.
  3. Jeb Bush’s "mystical warrior Chang" gag shows how political figures can parrot slogans without historical knowledge, revealing troubling political ignorance and historical amnesia.

Shiri’s Police Shooting

Handwaving Freakoutery • 1290 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Law enforcement Elections Trade policy Criminal Justice Polarization
  1. The Minneapolis ICE shooting is deeply polarizing because the same video can be read multiple ways; it looks like the officer fired additional close‑range shots after he was out of the car’s path, while the protester’s attempt to use her vehicle against officers was reckless.
  2. A rapid expansion of ICE put many poorly trained, aggressive enforcement officers into the field, and sending them to Minneapolis for political reasons increased the chance of violent confrontation.
  3. Long-term economic policies like free trade and offshoring hollowed out Rust Belt jobs and shifted political coalitions, and inconsistent political approaches to immigration helped produce the protests and enforcement clashes we see today.

The Law and the Shooting of Alex Pretti

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 857 implied HN points • 27 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Law Law enforcement Civil Rights Criminal Justice Immigration
  1. Video footage alone won’t settle who’s legally at fault, because legal judgments depend on context and standards that images can’t fully show.
  2. Under current law, officers can be justified if a reasonable officer believed the person was armed at the moment, even if the gun had earlier been seized.
  3. Regardless of the legal outcome, the shooting risks provoking widespread public outrage and major political consequences, possibly becoming a defining crisis moment.

Extremists Are At It Again

The Status Kuo • 15094 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics GOP Extremism
  1. Extremists within the GOP are causing chaos and threatening the party's electoral chances.
  2. The labeling of January 6 defendants as "hostages" is creating division within the GOP.
  3. The GOP is facing potential leadership struggles and internal division with extremists pushing their agenda.

Actuarial Examinations

Doomberg • 17538 implied HN points • 22 May 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Energy Policy Nuclear Energy Regulation Government oversight Public Safety
  1. The U.S. nuclear energy sector has struggled since the 1970s due to regulatory changes that focused more on safety than on promoting nuclear energy. This shift caused a significant slowdown in the construction of new reactors.
  2. The Linear No-Threshold (LNT) model treats all radiation exposure as harmful, preventing advancements in nuclear medicine and technology, which could potentially save millions of lives.
  3. Recent moves by the Trump administration aim to change how the Nuclear Regulatory Commission operates, promoting faster building of new nuclear power plants and enhancing energy production to match other countries like China.

Steelmanning Reauthorization: Way More Than You Wanted to Know I

Exasperated Infrastructures • 9 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Transportation Infrastructure Legislation Federalism Funding Public Policy
  1. Federal transportation funding evolved from focusing almost entirely on highways to supporting transit and other modes, but highways still get the lion's share and STURAA kept a highway emphasis.
  2. Authority over projects shifted upward from local builders to state DOTs, making states the main gatekeepers for federal money and sometimes sidelining regional or local needs.
  3. The system grew much more complex and politically driven: the Highway Trust Fund, many discretionary programs, earmarks, and a stagnant gas tax created maintenance shortfalls and shaped how funds are allocated.

Imperial Boomerang

The Chris Hedges Report • 848 implied HN points • 25 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Police brutality Imperialism Foreign Policy Civil Rights Criminal Justice State Violence
  1. Tactics of militarized force used abroad are being turned inward and used against people at home. This creates a domestic climate of state terror similar to war zones.
  2. Much of society tolerated or celebrated these brutal methods when they targeted foreigners or marginalized groups. That complicity made it easier for the same tactics to be deployed domestically.
  3. Systems of surveillance, impunity, and militarized policing were perfected on occupied and demonized populations and are now ready for broad use. That means ordinary people can face the same lethal, arbitrary force once reserved for others.

Table Stakes

Points And Figures • 559 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections State government Public Finance Campaigns Fiscal policy Governance
  1. The State Treasurer should have real finance credentials or proven financial experience because the job runs large public investment portfolios and requires technical skills. Electing someone without that background risks poor management of taxpayer money.
  2. Treasury work is complex and measurable — it includes managing billions in investments, protecting the state’s credit rating, modernizing systems, and separating real innovation from hype. That work can’t be done with slogans or vague promises.
  3. Inexperienced candidates often repeat generic talking points, but taxpayers need accountable leaders with quantifiable track records who prioritize returns and fiduciary duty over virtue signaling. Professionals with real-world finance experience bring the networks and discipline needed to save money and reduce risk.

Meta’s Child Sex-Trafficking Problem

After Babel • 2993 implied HN points • 03 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Social media Regulation Corporate Accountability Public Safety
  1. Meta's social media platforms have been linked to child sex trafficking, exposing many young users to predators. The company prioritized user engagement over safety, putting profits before the well-being of children.
  2. Meta was aware of the risks but did not act on recommendations to protect young users. Their choices have led to millions of interactions between minors and potential predators, fundamentally neglecting child safety.
  3. Estimates suggest that thousands of minors are recruited for trafficking each year through Meta's platforms. This highlights the urgent need for accountability and more stringent safety measures for children online.

The chaos has arrived

Noahpinion • 31353 implied HN points • 04 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Policy Trump Institutions
  1. Trump's presidency is causing significant turmoil within institutions like the FBI, leading to a purge of personnel involved in investigations against him.
  2. Trump is making decisions that disrupt relations with key allies and affect government spending, such as imposing tariffs and freezing federal aid.
  3. There are concerns about the chaos resulting from Trump's management style, which may cause even more local and national issues as his term progresses.

The End of an Era: Conventional Wisdom is Dead

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 11578 implied HN points • 28 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Media Journalism Political Opinion Society
  1. Many well-known journalists and media figures are leaving their positions due to buyouts and layoffs. This signals a big change in traditional media.
  2. Major media outlets like the Washington Post and CBS are struggling, with drops in subscriptions and staff reductions. This shows a shift in how people consume news.
  3. The mainstream media's influence is declining, leading to a breakdown in the common beliefs or 'conventional wisdom' that they once shared.

The Bell Finally Tolls for National Propaganda Radio

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 12633 implied HN points • 16 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Media bias Public funding Political Commentary Censorship National Identity
  1. Public media like NPR and PBS have traditionally provided high-quality, diverse programming for Americans. They offered informative shows that were different from commercial TV.
  2. There are concerns that NPR has become too biased, promoting a certain political agenda. Many feel this undermines its role as a public broadcaster that should serve all citizens.
  3. There's debate about public funding for NPR. Some argue if it relies less on government funds, it could better address its bias and connect with a wider audience.

What's going to happen to Ukraine now?

Noahpinion • 30412 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Geopolitics Elections War Strategy Political narratives Public Opinion
  1. The current situation in Ukraine may lead to a Finland-like scenario, where Ukraine could lose some territory but still maintain its independence and democracy. This would be a strategic victory for Ukraine despite the tactical losses.
  2. Recent shifts in American political support mean that while direct aid from the U.S. might change, Ukraine is still capable of defending itself and building its own military resources. They are determined to fight against the invasion.
  3. Negotiations with Russia might focus on reaching a peace deal that allows for ongoing Ukrainian independence, despite the narrative that favors Russia. A balance may be struck where both sides can find a way to end the conflict without total defeat.

The danger is now

Robert Reich • 25000 implied HN points • 15 May 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Media Democracy Accountability
  1. Trump's recent actions and statements are alarming, signaling a dangerous shift toward authoritarianism.
  2. There is concern about the lack of accountability for Trump's actions, particularly related to the Capitol riot and ongoing lies.
  3. Calls for action include holding Trump accountable, condemning media complicity, and mobilizing to protect democracy and equal rights.

Our Unserious President

Slack Tide by Matt Labash • 203 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Presidency Foreign Policy National Security Defense Political Commentary Media Critique
  1. The president is acting unserious, focusing on gold drapes and ballroom plans instead of treating a new military action with the solemnity it requires.
  2. The administration’s reasons for the war keep shifting while people are dying—U.S. service members and innocent civilians, including schoolgirls—showing real consequences behind the rhetoric.
  3. This mix of vanity and shifting justifications exposes misplaced priorities and hollow patriotism, and true patriotism should involve honestly questioning leaders and policies.

Trump’s Immunity Defense Crumbles

The Status Kuo • 14662 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legal Presidency Impeachment Supreme Court Criminal Justice
  1. The panel was skeptical of Trump's absolute immunity claim, even a Republican appointee was doubtful.
  2. Allowing presidential immunity from prosecution could lead to dangerous outcomes, like enabling the president to order assassinations.
  3. The Judgment Impeachment Clause argument is weak, as it does not provide absolute immunity from prosecution for a president.

We Taught Fascism Wrong

Erik Examines • 1075 implied HN points • 18 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Extremism Populism Political History Civic Education Media Regulation Political strategy
  1. Fascists usually win by scaring sensible people into choosing them as the "lesser evil," so moderates often enable brutal leaders rather than being converted to extremism.
  2. Communist revolutions tended to succeed where democratic options were blocked, while democratic socialism in Western countries has repeatedly governed without ending democracy, so fears of the democratic left are often overstated.
  3. In the modern information age, movements win by pumping out lies and weaponizing fear, so schools should teach what not to fear and society should hold large media actors accountable for deliberately spreading big, systematic falsehoods.

One big thing the legacy media gets wrong

Noahpinion • 28412 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Media Analysis Public Discourse Social media
  1. Legacy media often confuses analysis with opinion, missing the need for deeper insights. Readers want clear explanations and forecasts, not just opinion pieces.
  2. Substack and similar platforms allow writers more freedom to explore topics in depth. This contrasts with traditional print media, which usually limits writers, making it harder to provide thorough analysis.
  3. Many people are tired of the constant opinions in the media and prefer thoughtful analysis instead. Legacy publications could become more relevant by shifting focus to this type of content.

Warning (if you needed it): Trump is nuts, and he’ll do anything — anything — to win

Robert Reich • 24430 implied HN points • 24 Apr 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Constitution Insurrection Republican party
  1. Trump's actions since the 2020 election show he will do anything to win, despite legal and constitutional limits.
  2. The Constitution's disqualification clause exists because those who engage in insurrection cannot be trusted to use proper methods to regain power.
  3. Concerns arise over the possibility of Trump using various tactics to win the 2024 election, especially with loyalists in key positions.

Why Bidenomics will get Joe another term and give the Democrats control over Congress

Robert Reich • 24391 implied HN points • 31 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Legislation Political parties Labor Unions
  1. Bidenomics is proving to be successful in boosting the economy and lowering inflation.
  2. The Biden administration is focused on restructuring the economy to benefit the bottom 90 percent.
  3. Bidenomics could lead to shared prosperity, potentially securing another term for Biden and control of Congress for Democrats.

Brendan Carr Once Defended Free Speech. Now He Is Trump’s Chief Censor.

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 306 implied HN points • 19 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Free speech Censorship Social media Regulation First Amendment Partisanship
  1. Republicans loudly condemned the Biden administration for silencing dissent, but now that they’re in power those First Amendment worries have largely vanished.
  2. Brendan Carr, once a vocal defender of free speech, is now leading efforts to pressure platforms to censor critics under the Trump administration.
  3. During COVID, social platforms suppressed dissenting scientists—blacklisting, banning, and deleting content—which shows how content moderation can stifle alternative viewpoints.

Trump Told Iranian Protesters Help Was on the Way. What Happened?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 565 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy National Security Military Diplomacy Middle East Human Rights
  1. Trump publicly warned Iran the U.S. was "locked and loaded" if the regime shot protesters, but no U.S. strike followed the subsequent deadly crackdown.
  2. Officials say a key practical reason for not striking is that U.S. missile defense and strike resources are depleted, which limits options for rapid retaliation.
  3. Instead of punishing the regime for the massacre, U.S. envoys are meeting with Iranian officials to negotiate about the nuclear program and support for terrorism rather than the protesters' fate.

Only the State Forgives

News from Uncibal • 278 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Public Policy Human Rights Judiciary State power
  1. The modern state has taken on the role of providing forgiveness and redemption, much like the medieval church did. This change is so complete that many people don't realize it's happened.
  2. There are complex cases, like that of a young man involved in a violent crime, where the state considers human rights and mental health before making decisions on punishment and deportation.
  3. The situation reflects a deeper political theology, showing how state decisions can influence personal lives and highlight the tension between justice and compassion.

Epstein, Chomsky, & The Politics of Betrayal (Chris Hedges w/ Briahna Joy Gray)

The Chris Hedges Report • 177 implied HN points • 25 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Political Ideology Corruption Activism Civil Liberties Electoral Politics Media Criticism
  1. Liberal incrementalism has quietly eroded protections and pushed politics toward a form of incremental fascism. This warns that small, steady concessions can lead to large, harmful changes.
  2. There is an urgent need for a spirited debate about what actions to take now in response to this shift. People must decide whether to keep making small changes or to mount a stronger, collective response.
  3. The politics of betrayal frames the crisis by showing how trusted institutions or figures can fail the public and worsen political decay. Recognizing that betrayal matters helps focus demands for accountability and new strategies.

Quiz: Do you favor giving some help to poor kids but even more to the rich?

Robert Reich • 12402 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Poverty Inequality Budget Senate
  1. A new tax bill aims to reduce child poverty by giving benefits to poor kids and the rich.
  2. The bill would help around 16 million children and boost the incomes of the top 1% quite a lot.
  3. While commendable for pulling children out of poverty, the bill also includes tax breaks that heavily benefit the wealthiest Americans.