Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality $10 / month

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality explores economic history, economics, political economy, finance, and forecasting with a focus on understanding and addressing the complexities of contemporary global challenges. It critically analyzes current events, historical occurrences, and theoretical perspectives to offer insight into economic inequalities, democracy, neoliberal ideas, and geopolitical tensions.

Economic History Political Economy Finance and Forecasting Contemporary Global Challenges Economic Inequalities Democracy and Governance Neoliberalism Geopolitical Tensions

The hottest Substack posts of Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality

And their main takeaways

Claim Chowder: She Did Good

130 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Leadership Public Opinion Government Accountability
  1. Incumbent parties in 2024 faced tough challenges, and Kamala Harris struggled to meet expectations as part of that scenario.
  2. Public perception of Kamala Harris has not been very positive, affecting her and the Biden administration's approval ratings.
  3. Many Democrats are less enthusiastic about Harris as a candidate for the future, raising questions about her role in upcoming elections.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-24 Tu

84 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Government Policy Election insights Public Opinion Current Events
  1. Consumers' expectations can shift based on political events, and that's something to pay attention to in economic forecasts.
  2. The rise of women's empowerment in writing and being heard was slow, but significant changes started around the year 1800.
  3. The distribution of goods in the Roman Empire heavily favored the Mediterranean, showing its central role in trade and economy.

BIWEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-14 Sa

92 implied HN points • 14 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Healthcare policy Social Policy Foreign Relations
  1. Economic growth in the G-5 has faced challenges due to policy choices, like the Reagan deficits and insufficient public investment. These choices have slowed growth compared to earlier times.
  2. ObamaCare has effectively controlled entitlement spending, shifting the focus to new financial issues. It's become clear that previous crises have changed over time.
  3. Wages for non-managerial workers have started to rise compared to managerial workers. This shift shows a significant change in the workforce that isn't just due to technology but reflects broader social dynamics.

CROSSPOST from 2007: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: George W. Bush et le Code Ezéchiel

99 implied HN points • 01 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Religion History Political theory Biblical Interpretation
  1. George W. Bush mentioned biblical figures Gog and Magog while discussing the Middle East with Jacques Chirac. This shows how some leaders might connect their political actions with religious beliefs.
  2. The interpretations of biblical texts like Ezekiel can vary widely. Some scholars see historical events in these texts, while others look for modern connections.
  3. The United States' support for Israel can be influenced by religious views, unlike the more geopolitical perspective often taken in Europe.

BIWEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-18 Sa

84 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Economics Government Administration
  1. Automation and AI are changing jobs in many industries. It could either lead to job losses or new kinds of jobs, just like what happened with tractors in farming a century ago.
  2. Students find it easier to ask ChatGPT questions instead of going to a teacher. This could mean they get less accurate answers, which is a concern for education.
  3. Economic forecasts are changing with the Federal Reserve adjusting interest rates. It’s an important factor for understanding the overall economy and its direction.
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There are Complex-Number One-Norm Square-Root of Probability Amplitudes of 0.006 in Which Sam Bankman-Fried Is Happy

676 implied HN points • 05 Oct 23
💰 Finance Investing Risk management Probability Psychology Trading
  1. Amplitudes in quantum-mechanical superposition relate to philosophy-of-probability vs. psychology.
  2. Understanding the Kelly Criterion for betting based on win-loss odds and maximizing returns.
  3. Traders use the Kelly Criterion for survival, making positive-value bets, and psychological factors.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED for 2024-11-02 Sa

115 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Economics Public Opinion Political History
  1. Global warming is a serious threat, especially for poorer countries like those in sub-Saharan Africa that lack resources to adapt.
  2. Decarbonization efforts in the Global North have been noticeable over the past generation, helping to address climate change.
  3. Passive investing might seem easy, but it actually leads to big market shifts as people try to track indexes, which can complicate real price discovery.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2025-01-20 Mo

53 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Economics Insurance History Environment
  1. Watching a video about the Bel Air Fire of 1961 can give you insight into historical events and their impacts. It's important to learn from past events to understand current issues better.
  2. Insurance costs for properties are changing and it's something to keep an eye on. Rising costs can affect how we plan our finances when it comes to home and property.
  3. Subscribing to informative newsletters can lead to valuable knowledge. Engaging with these types of content can help you stay updated and informed.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: An Ur-Text by George Stigler for Dark Satanic Millian Liberalism, & Related Matters...

76 implied HN points • 15 Dec 24
💼 Business Economics Market Theory Capitalism Economic History Liberalism
  1. The market economy is seen not just for creating wealth, but for shaping character and virtues like self-discipline and resilience. This suggests that economic struggles can help people become better individuals.
  2. Some economists argue that uncertainty and risk of poverty are necessary for a society to function well. They believe without these challenges, people might not push themselves to improve.
  3. Critics of this perspective think that focusing on the hardships of capitalism ignores the real needs and experiences of everyday people. They see value in prosperity and security, not just in struggle and sacrifice.

Having Neighbors Who Vote for Donald Trump Is Dangerous to Your Health

361 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Health Politics COVID-19 Vaccination Donald Trump Misinformation
  1. Having neighbors who vote for Donald Trump could lead to a higher chance of dying from the Covid Plague.
  2. The difference in Covid outcomes between counties may not be due to behavioral factors, but rather to vaccination rates influenced by political views.
  3. Vaccination rates seem to be linked to political figures like Donald Trump, showing how politics can impact public health.

A DRAFT Syllabus for Econ 113: American Economic History :: Spring 2025 :: UC Berkeley

76 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
🚌 Education Economic History American history Higher education Social Issues
  1. American exceptionalism is a key theme in understanding the country's economic history, exploring what makes it unique compared to other nations.
  2. The course examines significant historical events, like the rise of manufacturing and the impact of immigration, which shaped the American economy over the centuries.
  3. Inequality and economic mobility are crucial topics, focusing on how these issues have evolved from the 1940s to the present day.

Sundowning in America: A Series: Part III

107 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Commentary Elections Public Opinion Political Rhetoric Government Critique
  1. Donald Trump is seen as promoting dangerous ideas that intimidate his political opponents, which may influence some Republican leaders but not everyone.
  2. Despite hosting a rally at Madison Square Garden, he couldn't fill the venue, signaling a potential decline in support.
  3. There are concerns about Trump's mental state as he often makes confusing statements, leading to doubts about his capability to lead.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-11-10 Su

92 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Government Economics Political parties
  1. NVIDIA's profits are not typical. They benefit from a unique position in the market, unlike many other companies whose profits are more stable and predictable.
  2. The concept of 'safe assets' is important in understanding economic stability. They can rise in value during tough times and provide liquidity, which gives certain countries, like the U.S., a special financial edge.
  3. The current state of AI technology is useful but limited. It can handle repetitive tasks well, but it still can't solve new problems that it hasn't been trained on.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-03 Tu

76 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political parties Current Events Elections Public Engagement Political Commentary
  1. Bluesky is gaining popularity as a social media alternative to Twitter, recently surpassing 15 million users. It's becoming the top app in the US iOS App Store.
  2. Intel's progress with its 18A chip manufacturing process is under scrutiny, with some companies finding it not yet ready for high-volume production. There are mixed reports about its defect density, which Intel claims is healthy.
  3. Discussion around political engagement highlights a disconnect between parties and ordinary people. There's a call for stronger connections to avoid the decline of party participation and civic life.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: John F. Cogan, Glenn Hubbard, John B. Taylor, & Kevin Warsh Are Not Professional Analysts, But Rather Republican Courtiers

76 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Policy Analysis Political Influence
  1. Kevin Warsh's role in politics shows how personal identity can outweigh professional expertise. He is seen more as a supporter of party lines rather than a strictly analytical voice.
  2. Several economists, like Cogan and Hubbard, are criticized for aligning their views with political agendas instead of relying on data. This raises questions about their credibility in economic discussions.
  3. The long-term decline in U.S. productivity is significant, and some economists downplay this reality. Ignoring the actual data trends can harm their reputations as credible professionals.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-11-22 Fr

76 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Public Opinion Misinformation Political Movements Elections Economics
  1. Real wages for non-managerial workers are growing stronger now than in the past due to a tight labor market. This growth has continued despite challenges like the pandemic and inflation.
  2. Media sources greatly influence people's opinions and political views, creating a divide in beliefs. Many Americans see their reality differently based on their news consumption.
  3. There are different kinds of populist leaders, but not all fit neatly into traditional categories. The motivations behind their actions can vary widely, affecting how they connect with their supporters.

Affirmative Action: A Primer, & A Finger Exercise

315 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Affirmative Action Meritocracy Inequality Social justice
  1. In a society with structural racism, even a good meritocratic system can unfairly advantage privileged groups and disadvantage marginalized ones.
  2. Meritocratic tests can also perpetuate structural racism, leading to unfair outcomes in job selection.
  3. Choosing the best people for a job involves considering and addressing structural racism in both access to resources and the testing process.

On Færie-Stories—like Frank Herbert's "Dune"—Derived from Agrarian-Age Roots

299 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
📚 Literature Analysis Themes Critique Storytelling Characters
  1. Dune by Frank Herbert is a complex and problematic story that delves into themes of tragedy, power, and morality.
  2. The connection between mastery-as-expertise and mastery-as-domination in stories like 'Dune' reflects historical perspectives rooted in Agrarian-Age dynamics of power and exploitation.
  3. While enjoying stories like 'Dune,' it's important to analyze and recognize the problematic aspects of the themes presented, such as the intertwining of expertise and dominance.

DRAFT: Five Afterthoughts on "Slouching Towards Utopia": Friedrich von Hayek, Michael Polanyi, & Company...

84 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
📖 Philosophy Political Economy Moral Philosophy Economic History
  1. The work in political economy and moral philosophy from the 1900s often comes from thinkers connected to the Vienna Circle. Their ideas shaped modern views in these fields.
  2. Natural issues like global warming and resource scarcity greatly impacted the economy throughout the 20th century. It's important to consider these environmental factors when studying economic history.
  3. Understanding different authors and theories, especially those related to socialism and welfare states, helps us grasp the changes in economic growth and social democracy since the late 19th century. Their insights remain relevant today.

"Civic Friendship": The Baseline Requirement for Democracy, & Incompatible with the Financial Flows Underpinning the Republican Ecology

484 implied HN points • 25 Sep 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Democracy Partisan Politics Political History Republican party
  1. Democracies survive with civic friendship, treating each other as companions and helpers.
  2. Republicans have followed a path of arousing fear and scorn to win, breaking the civic bargain.
  3. Neoliberal policies following the Reagan Revolution failed, leading to societal and economic decline.

Yes. Rome Did Fall

568 implied HN points • 22 Jun 23
💾 History Ancient Rome
  1. Rome fell to various barbarian tribes in the 5th century, leading to no Roman Empire in the west
  2. The Eastern Roman Empire in Constantinople survived and transformed into the Byzantine Empire
  3. Augustine's 'City of God' reflects the fall of Rome and the importance of Christianity

ONE SLIDE: Working on the Summary Review Materials for Econ 135: History of Economic Growth: The Post-1870 MEG-Economy

61 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🚌 Education Economics Academic Growth History Teaching
  1. Most economic activity in history happened after 1870. This shows how rapidly the economy can grow in a short time.
  2. Students should have a simple, useful summary of post-1870 economic growth. This will help them during exams and in their future understanding.
  3. The summary should include both political-economic and technical aspects. It's important to see how these areas work together in shaping the economy.

A Note: Some Persistent Structures of Antiliberal Thought

230 implied HN points • 17 Mar 24
🌍 World Politics Neofascism
  1. The idea of fascism did not die in 1945 but persisted and resurfaced as Trumpism.
  2. Frank Fukuyama's belief that fascism ended with the Red Army in Berlin was considered a big mistake.
  3. Isaiah Berlin's exploration in Saint Petersburg in the 1800s revealed structures of thought that we now see reflected in Trumpism.

Guns, Germs, Steel, Coal, Slavery, Seaborne Empires, Peninsulas, Mountain Ranges, Rainfall, & Chance: Jared Diamond's "Guns, Germs, & Steel" After Twenty-Five Years

522 implied HN points • 11 Jun 23
🚌 Education History Literature Science Culture Philosophy
  1. Critics of Jared Diamond often lack basic discourse ethics, skip reading, or misinterpret his work.
  2. Diamond's book 'Guns, Germs, & Steel' excels in explaining historical advantages of Eurasian powers over others.
  3. The roots of Western-Eurasian exceptionalism might lie in cultural unity and political fragmentation, but there are gaps in Diamond's explanations.

The True Shape of America's Debt & Deficit "Burdens"

261 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Government spending National Debt Political Economy
  1. Debt-to-GDP ratio in the U.S. has fluctuated over the years, with significant changes under different administrations.
  2. The U.S. could manage its debt by matching program spending to taxes in the future, allowing it to gradually diminish.
  3. The current U.S. deficit is a concern as it exceeds the optimal level, posing a risk for the future due to political and economic factors.

Gunpowder-Empire Fiscal Legibility & State Development: Economic History/Political Economy Seminar

222 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
💾 History Economic History Political Economy
  1. The Viceroyalty of New Spain in 1550 was dominated by a gunpowder-empire machine with Castilians and indigenous populations, showcasing early forms of state development.
  2. The introduction of the Patio Process in 1554 for silver extraction revolutionized mining districts in Mexico, attracting workers and increasing prosperity due to the flow of mercury.
  3. Improved fiscal legibility in mining districts post-Patio Process led to accelerated political centralization, as viceroys had more confidence in transitioning areas from encomienda to corregimiento for better state control and revenue collection.

Steampower, or Faërie for Today?

61 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
📚 Literature Fiction Poetry Analysis Authors Genres
  1. The steam engine in the 1800s was a major turning point in technology and industry. It paved the way for engineering careers and the growth of modern corporations.
  2. There's a temptation to explore fantasy worlds instead of focusing on practical history. Imagining magical places can be just as captivating as real advancements.
  3. Literature often discusses the magical and mundane aspects of life, revealing deeper meanings and connections. Books can blend reality with fantasy in fascinating ways.

READING: Alan Ryan on Isaiah Berlin on Karl Marx

207 implied HN points • 16 Mar 24
📚 Literature Philosophy
  1. Isaiah Berlin's take on Karl Marx focused not just on Marx's life but also on his intellectual environment and impact on history.
  2. Berlin's writing style brought historical figures like Marx to life, balancing psychology and intellectual analysis skillfully.
  3. Marxism, as presented by Berlin, challenges the idea that ideas solely drive history, highlighting the complex relationship between individuals, their environment, and social change.

American Nationalism, Teddy-Roosevelt Style!

215 implied HN points • 24 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Nationalism Progressivism Wealth Inequality Financial Policy
  1. Teddy Roosevelt aimed to emphasize the importance of American heritage and the impact of the Pilgrims and Puritans on the nation.
  2. He advocated for building on the positive qualities of the past while recognizing the advancements made since then.
  3. Roosevelt promoted fighting against plutocracy and enforcing fair treatment in wealth accumulation, favoring a balance of individual initiative and collective responsibility.