Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality $10 / month

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality explores economic history, economics, political economy, finance, and forecasting with a focus on understanding and addressing the complexities of contemporary global challenges. It critically analyzes current events, historical occurrences, and theoretical perspectives to offer insight into economic inequalities, democracy, neoliberal ideas, and geopolitical tensions.

Economic History Political Economy Finance and Forecasting Contemporary Global Challenges Economic Inequalities Democracy and Governance Neoliberalism Geopolitical Tensions

The hottest Substack posts of Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality

And their main takeaways

Social Theory for the Mid-21st Century: Part II. From -73000 to 2055: Malthusian Poverty to Modern Economic Growth

269 implied HN points • 17 Nov 24
📖 Philosophy Social theory Economic Growth Technological Change Historical Analysis
  1. Throughout history, technological growth has drastically changed, particularly in the last 150 years. This period saw growth that's far beyond anything in earlier times.
  2. Today's society is much better off than before, with greater access to resources and technology. Most people have standards of living that are far superior compared to the past.
  3. Understanding our economic growth is complex. It's important to measure not just resources, but also how people work together and use ideas to improve life.

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality—The SubStack

284 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
💼 Business Economics Finance Policy Investing Market Trends
  1. The newsletter aims to make readers smarter and more informed about economic topics. It's designed to keep readers engaged and entertained while learning.
  2. Readers can expect economic insights, historical context, and thoughtful recommendations in the newsletter. The goal is to offer clarity and understanding of complex issues.
  3. The newsletter also seeks to enhance public discourse by steering readers away from sensationalism and clickbait, promoting a more thoughtful examination of current events.

Feral Joe: A Series: II

299 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Commentary Political parties Public Opinion Political Discourse
  1. The election is portrayed as a clear choice between decency and a lack of it. It's important to consider character when voting.
  2. Joe Biden emphasizes that Donald Trump has made false claims and spread misinformation, which is harmful to those in need.
  3. Biden also stresses the importance of holding leaders accountable for their actions and statements, especially in times of crisis.

LECTURE NOTES: 5.1. Global Warming

246 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
🌞 Climate & Environment Climate Policy Global Warming Environmental Economics Sustainability Societal Impact
  1. Global warming is not just an environmental issue; it is changing how economies and societies work. The costs of addressing climate change could take away resources needed for future progress.
  2. As the climate shifts, we face serious challenges like unstable weather and changing environments. This affects our infrastructure and could lead to even worse disasters if not addressed quickly.
  3. Handling global warming will likely consume a lot of resources that could have helped us adapt to other economic changes. We need to think about how to support those who suffer as we transition to a more sustainable society.

BIWEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-28 Sa

169 implied HN points • 28 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political trends Government Accountability Election Dynamics Social Issues Foreign Policy
  1. There's a trend in America moving away from clear laws towards decisions based on discretion, which could lead to corruption. It's important to have clear rules to prevent misuse of power.
  2. The idea of conquering places for resources is outdated. It's much more efficient to trade for what we need instead of trying to take over land.
  3. In Berkeley, there's a shift from strict neighborhood controls to more inclusive housing policies. This change reflects a desire for more affordable living in the area.
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DRAFT: A Very Peculiar Kind of Triumph of the Will Indeed

261 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Misinformation Political Behavior Party Dynamics
  1. There is a question about whether people supported Trump because they wanted to believe false information, or if they believed false information because they supported Trump. It's a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation.
  2. Misinformation has a strong influence on voters, making it hard to trust what is said by those who oppose it. This makes it challenging for others to communicate different perspectives effectively.
  3. To make progress, some Republicans who want change may need to find ways to help their supporters understand the truth and make better choices about who to trust.

Are the Tech Titans Mighty Enough to Break the Threatened NVIDIA-OpenAI Fetters?

238 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🕹 Technology AI Chips Market Strategy Innovation
  1. Big tech companies are trying to break their dependence on NVIDIA and OpenAI because they don't want to pay high fees for using their technology. They are investing heavily to develop their own systems and chips.
  2. The race for independence is fueled by fears of falling behind in AI technology. Companies need cutting-edge language and classification models to stay competitive and make profits.
  3. Despite the rush to innovate, there's concern about monopolies in chip manufacturing, particularly with companies like TSMC. If other competitors can catch up, it could lead to a more open tech landscape and fewer fees for businesses.

How Closely Does the Classical Populism of the Tyrannoi Rhyme with Contemporary Populist "Demagoguery" Anyway?

253 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Populism Political History Elections Governance
  1. Populism has a history of connecting leaders with the people's needs. Unlike some modern populists, historical figures often focused on clear policy goals that aimed to help the public.
  2. Modern political movements sometimes rely more on fear and division rather than serving the public's needs. This shift can lead to leaders who promise protection without actual improvement in people's lives.
  3. The way people view historical figures like Andrew Jackson can change based on the context of their actions, showing that understanding history requires looking at both policies and motivations.

Juggling for High Stakes, Nate Silver Expertly Keeps All the Balls in the Air

253 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Political Analysis Demographics Campaign strategies
  1. Nate Silver analyzes the 2024 presidential polls by juggling different polls and what they say about the voters. He's trying to figure out whether the surprising results are due to model errors or actual changes in voter behavior.
  2. He believes that some pollsters may be hesitant to share results that seem too far from expected outcomes, leading to overly tight poll results. This herding effect makes it hard to know what's really going on in the electorate.
  3. Silver highlights the conflict between different polls, like Selzer's showing a lead for Harris in Iowa and Siena's favoring Trump in Arizona. If both polls are correct, it could suggest big shifts in voter preferences since past elections.

In Spite of All the "Don't Worry" Whispers from Scott Bessent's Affinity, the Rest of Us Are Not Outside But Inside the Chaos-Monkey Cage with Trump

169 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Leadership Economics Chaos Theory
  1. There's a strong chance for chaos over the next four years, and keeping Trump in check seems very difficult.
  2. Trump's approach to information is problematic, often spreading misinformation which increases the risk of bad policies.
  3. Economists are uncertain about the economic impact of Trump's plans, but history suggests that chaotic decisions will likely lead to negative outcomes.

LECTURE NOTES: 5.3. Post-2010 "Polycrisis": Economics

215 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
  1. The word 'polycrisis' describes a situation where multiple crises are connected and worsening each other. Instead of solving one issue at a time, we're dealing with many issues together.
  2. Excessive financialization means that the economy focuses more on trading money for money rather than producing useful things. This can create risks and keeps people from understanding how the economy really works.
  3. Digitization has led to fewer good jobs that require less training, making it hard for people to find success. As these jobs disappear, many people feel disconnected and struggle to improve their lives.

LECTURE NOTES: 5.2. Neoliberalism & After

215 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Economic Policy Social justice
  1. The Neoliberal Order focused on free markets and individual freedom but often failed to create a fair society, leading to fear and inequality. This has caused people to look for new solutions and ideas.
  2. People are starting to care more about their local communities and how policies affect their immediate surroundings. There's a desire for changes that help create opportunities right where they are, instead of relying on moving to find better chances.
  3. There is a rising demand for leaders who truly represent and fight for the common people's interests. Many feel that the current system favors the rich, and they want someone to disrupt that status quo.

Trump Madison Square Garden Rally

253 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Commentary Political parties Political Figures Political issues
  1. The rally included extreme rhetoric aimed at migrants, suggesting a significant focus on immigration issues as a central theme. This brings our attention to the heated debate around immigration policies in the current political climate.
  2. There were indications of aligning certain statements with far-right ideologies, raising concerns about the nature of such rhetoric and who it appeals to. This shows a growing tension in political dialogues today.
  3. Audience reactions and interactions at the rally highlighted a culture of divisiveness and humor that many find offensive, which suggests a lingering acceptance of controversial humor in political discussions. This reflects broader societal attitudes on race and stereotypes.

LECTURE NOTES: 5.4. Post-2010 "Polycrisis": Culture, Communications, Politics, & War

207 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Economy Public Policy Cultural Studies War Studies
  1. We're facing a big change in how we organize our economies and societies after the old Neoliberal Order collapsed. Right now, there's no clear leader or system guiding us towards the future.
  2. Global warming is a major challenge we're dealing with, and it will likely change how we approach economics and society. It could cost us a lot and make it harder to adapt to new technologies.
  3. Misinformation is a huge problem in politics today. Many people believe false information, which can really impact elections and how we view our society.

TWELVE SLIDES: The History of Economic Growth :: (Roughly) Seven Summary Bullet Points per Lecture

192 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🚌 Education Economic History Social Dynamics Technological Change Globalization
  1. Economic growth means people's living standards and productivity improve over time. It's not just about having more money, but also how everyone shares those resources fairly.
  2. Before 1870, most economic progress was slow, and many people lived in poverty. After that, societies began to develop better ways of organizing and sharing wealth, leading to real improvements for many.
  3. Today, we face challenges like climate change and inequality that threaten our progress. We need to find new ways to support everyone and ensure that future generations can thrive.

CROSSPOST: 23 Economics Nobel Prize Winners for Kamala Harris

238 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Economics Public Policy Political theory Campaigns
  1. Many Nobel Prize winners in economics believe Kamala Harris would be better for the economy than Donald Trump. They think her ideas will strengthen the middle class and promote fairness.
  2. Harris's economic agenda focuses on enhancing competition and creating job opportunities. These policies are seen as more beneficial for the country's overall economic health.
  3. In contrast, Trump's policies are viewed as harmful, leading to higher prices and greater inequality. Experts worry that his actions could jeopardize essential economic stability.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2025-01-06 Mo

130 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Economic Policy Social Issues Public Opinion Cultural Commentary
  1. Educational approaches should blend economic theories with historical context. This helps students grasp how past events shape current economic systems.
  2. To tackle gender disparities in birth rates, changing perceptions about motherhood and fatherhood is essential. Men need to support women more in their roles both at work and home.
  3. Inflation isn't solely linked to government spending; the Federal Reserve plays a significant role in managing it. Digital and global economic shifts complicate how we analyze these financial factors.

LECTURE NOTES: 1.1. What the History of Economic Growth Is

199 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
🚌 Education Economics History Lectures Learning University
  1. Economic growth has a long history, with most of it being slow until a major change around 1870. Before then, people lived with little advancement in their living standards for centuries.
  2. Reliable data about economies was mostly unavailable before the 19th century. This makes it hard to understand past living conditions or wealth distribution.
  3. Many technological advancements didn't lead to better lives for common people until recently. Before 1870, despite progress, most still struggled with poverty and poor living conditions.

NOTES: Reckoning with Post-Columbus Empires

115 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💾 History Colonialism Cultural Exchange Economic Impact
  1. Empires are built on conquest and exploitation, but they can also lead to positive effects like cultural exchange and technological progress. It’s important to recognize both the harm and the unintended benefits.
  2. The legacy of colonialism often leads to a complex view where the loss of local power is weighed against advances in trade, technology, and cultural contact. Understanding this balance is key.
  3. When reflecting on imperial history, it's essential to consider the wider impacts on society rather than just focusing on the actions of the conquerors. This broader perspective helps us see the mixed legacy of empires.

PROJECT SYNDICATE: Misinformation Decided the U.S. Election

207 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Misinformation Political Behavior Public Opinion Governance
  1. Many Trump supporters are good-hearted people who genuinely worry about the country's direction. They voted for him not out of hate, but because they care.
  2. There is a serious problem when a large portion of the public prefers misinformation. It makes it hard for democracy to thrive if people choose not to believe the facts.
  3. Democrats may struggle to connect with those who need to hear their messages. Republicans are encouraged to take responsibility in educating their supporters about the truth.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2025-01-13 Mo

115 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Markets Investments Policy Insurance
  1. 1. Understanding Economic Issues: The text discusses the idea that many problems in society are linked to economic misunderstandings and a lack of effective communication in the management of public services. It highlights the need for better systems to gather and process information for effective governance.
  2. 2. The Role of Government: It emphasizes that a government's primary job isn't just to keep people safe, but to empower them and solve crises effectively. Officials should focus on actual disaster management rather than just maintaining the appearance of control.
  3. 3. Challenges of Modern Technology: There is a critique of how tech companies like Facebook are operating without a long-term vision, which affects user experiences negatively. The discussion invites us to think about how technology can be used to improve our understanding and utilization of information.

The Republican-Legislator Misinformation Meltdown of December 2024

146 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Legislation Politicians Misinformation Media
  1. Misinformation can create chaos in government, as seen with recent events involving political leaders and social media. It shows how easily people can be influenced by false information.
  2. The compromise spending bill before a potential government shutdown highlights how partisan tensions can escalate quickly, especially with external influences like Elon Musk's comments.
  3. Despite the turmoil, there's a possibility of avoiding a government shutdown, but the situation reveals deeper issues about leadership and decision-making within the government.

Once More Telling People That They Should Take Nate Silver for Their Guru on Questions in His Lane

222 implied HN points • 27 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Public Opinion Political Analysis Media influence
  1. Nate Silver is really good at understanding statistics and probabilities, so it's smart to listen to him when it comes to polls and predictions about elections.
  2. Billionaires don't know more about elections than anyone else; they often act based on their own interests and fears, not on secret insights.
  3. When looking at elections, focus on the polls instead of billionaires' actions. Polls can give us a clearer picture of what might happen, even if they're not perfect.

NOTE TO SELF: "Coin Money, & Regulate the Value Thereof..."

176 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Federal Reserve Constitution Political Debate Supreme Court
  1. The Federal Reserve's role and its constitutionality are often misunderstood, especially by some Republicans. They argue that it shouldn't have the power to manage money since only Congress can do that.
  2. The creation of money has evolved, and while paper money existed, it was not the same as coins issued by the government. Now, Federal Reserve Notes are more like promises from banks rather than actual money made by Congress.
  3. There are concerns that the current Supreme Court may not interpret the Constitution properly regarding these financial matters, as it is seen as being influenced by political agendas rather than legal principles.

THE MACRO-FINANCE SITCH: The Streams (of Falling Short-Term & Rising Long-Term U.S. Treasury Rates) Cross

115 implied HN points • 08 Jan 25
💰 Finance Markets Bonds Economics Investing Policy
  1. Short-term Treasury rates are falling while long-term rates are rising, showing a change in investor expectations about future interest rates. This shift hints at more uncertainty in the market.
  2. The current economic situation could lead to tumultuous changes similar to past events in the UK, with concerns about the U.S. government's approach to debt and fiscal policy.
  3. Investors seem to be valuing flexibility over fixed returns, suggesting they want to avoid risks associated with long-term bonds in a fluctuating economy.

ONE IMAGE: HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES FROM 2020: The Moment I Realized Intel Was in Huge Trouble—But I Did Not See the TSMC-NVIDIA Angle

161 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
🕹 Technology Hardware Semiconductors Innovation Corporate strategy Industry Analysis
  1. Intel has been struggling to keep up with competitors like TSMC and Apple, especially in chip performance and manufacturing processes. This gap has raised concerns about Intel's future viability.
  2. Performance per watt is becoming more important in chip design, meaning companies like Apple that focus on this can gain a significant advantage over others, including Intel.
  3. Many believe Intel is in a tough spot with little hope for recovery. If things don’t improve, its value may only come from any cash payments the government might offer, rather than from future profits.

DRAFT: It Is Our Business Here in America Not to Repeat Old World Society-of-Domination Mistakes

153 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Indigenous rights Social justice Political theory Cultural Discourse Historical context
  1. Land acknowledgments can be seen as a reminder of historical injustices, which some people may find annoying or overwhelming.
  2. There were many positive interactions between early colonists and Native Americans, and the population of Native Americans has actually grown since then.
  3. The benefits brought by the Columbian Exchange helped improve the lives of modern Native Americans compared to their ancestors in the past.

Sundowning in America: A Series: Part IV

192 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Political Commentary Government Trump
  1. Donald Trump struggled to fill a large venue, showing a decrease in support for his campaign. This suggests that his appeal may not be as strong as it once was.
  2. His comments and jokes at a rally raised concerns about the negative impact of his words on communities, especially among minorities. This behavior can be damaging and indicates a trend towards divisive politics.
  3. The current Supreme Court is viewed as biased and potentially threatening to fair election processes. There are worries that their interventions might further undermine democratic practices in the upcoming elections.

ONE IMAGE: By My Authority & My Ego: The Long-Run Shape of Human Economic History, from -73000 to 2180

153 implied HN points • 28 Nov 24
💾 History Economic History Cultural Evolution
  1. The human economic history is complicated and shaped by many factors over a long time. It's important to look back at our past to understand how we got to where we are.
  2. Calculating the true value of what people produced in the past is really tricky. Most production used to go towards basic needs, but now we have more technology and efficiency to create luxuries.
  3. Making predictions about the future is even more uncertain. We can only guess how things will continue to change and develop.

What Had I Hoped to Teach This Just-Past Semester?

130 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
🚌 Education Teaching Methods Curriculum Development Economic History Cognitive Science Narrative Theory
  1. Understanding history is crucial for making sense of current and future human affairs. It helps us to see patterns and learn from past mistakes.
  2. Students should learn to think critically about economic issues. This includes analyzing how economic instability relates to political decisions and vice versa.
  3. History teaches us to look both backward and forward in time, which is a valuable skill. It allows us to make better decisions by using past examples to inform our understanding of present circumstances.

DRAFT: The Democratic Party Is too a Party Dedicated to Securing for the Workers by Hand & Brain the Full Fruits of Their Industry

176 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political parties Elections Economic Policies Labor Issues Social justice
  1. The Democratic Party is seen by some as not fully representing workers anymore. There's a belief that it has shifted focus to areas like digital change and globalization.
  2. Critics argue that Democrats support ideas like untrained immigration and globalization without enough caution. Others question what 'woke' ideas really upset the traditional worker base.
  3. There's a debate about who qualifies as a worker today. It's important to think about diversity in the worker identity beyond stereotypes of race and education.

Report: Virtual & Augmented Reality Test Drive

153 implied HN points • 24 Nov 24
🕹 Technology Virtual reality Augmented reality Product Reviews Tech Trends User Experience
  1. The Apple VisionPro has some cool uses like immersive video and creating a personal space during flights. However, it's not worth the high price for most people.
  2. Facebook's new AR glasses are just a prototype and not available for sale yet. This means they aren’t really ahead of Apple, which could quickly release a practical product when ready.
  3. Users want more efficient apps and features for AR experiences, especially those that work better than iPad apps. There's potential for amazing virtual experiences, but the technology isn't fully there yet.

Alexander Hamilton Did too Believe in "Industrial Policy"!!

176 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Political History Government Industrial Policy Federalism
  1. Alexander Hamilton supported the idea of using government policies to help grow local industries. He believed that controlling foreign competition can actually help American goods become cheaper over time.
  2. Hamilton thought that while tariffs might raise prices temporarily, they could lead to long-term benefits for domestic manufacturers and even help farmers by making goods more affordable.
  3. Critics of Hamilton miss the point that he advocated for state involvement in the economy to promote national growth, which is a form of planned economic strategy.

IDEAS NEEDED: What to Teach 150 Undergraduates About American Economic History Next Semester

130 implied HN points • 08 Dec 24
  1. To理解美国经济历史，我们应该探讨从过去的战争和瘟疫到成为全球经济强国的关键时刻和创新。
  2. 理解历史对学生的教育很重要，它帮助他们将历史视角融入到更广泛的逻辑、数学和其他学科中。
  3. 讨论历史中的矛盾与挑战，能够给学生提供更深刻的见解，帮助他们在未来形成全面的世界观。

CROSSPOST/HOISTED: Larry Summers from 2022 on the "Polycrisis"

84 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Fiscal policy Global Economy Financial Stability Inflation
  1. The global economy is facing a 'polycrisis,' which means there are many problems at once, like inflation, energy issues, and conflicts affecting different regions.
  2. Inflation is a big concern, and controlling it might require tough decisions like raising interest rates, which could lead to higher unemployment but is seen as necessary for stability.
  3. The situation in the UK shows how quickly financial stability can turn into chaos from bad policy, highlighting the importance of credibility and wise fiscal management.

Betting on the Corruption of the American System: The DJT Market-Valuation Indicator

161 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Election Dynamics Public Perception
  1. Investors are buying DJT stock because they think it can be used to gain favor with Donald Trump if he becomes president again. They see owning these shares as a way to show their support.
  2. The stock was once worth more than Twitter, even though its actual revenue is very low. This suggests that people are focusing more on speculation than the business's real value.
  3. Unlike other meme stocks, DJT is not really viewed as a typical media company. Instead, many investors see it as a way to potentially bribe Trump for political favors.

CROSSPOST: Josh Marshall: State of Play on Capitol Hill

99 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Congress Elections Leadership Political parties Current Events
  1. Elon Musk has become a major player in government discussions, shaking things up in ways even Donald Trump can't control. It's like Musk is the new chaos agent, and everyone has to deal with the mess he creates.
  2. Trump is trying to lead the charge but is struggling because Musk's influence is unpredictable and strong. This situation shows that Trump doesn't have the same grip on power as he used to.
  3. The recent events in Congress highlight the rising tension within the Republican Party. Many Republicans are defying Trump's wishes, which is unusual and suggests a shift in loyalty and power dynamics.

BIWEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-05 Th

107 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
🕹 Technology AI Economics Cybersecurity Hardware Fintech
  1. Intel has faced a lot of trouble due to poor decisions made years ago. The issues they are now trying to fix are rooted in choices that stretch back more than a decade.
  2. Spending on AI is growing, but it's still far below what many companies expected. Big tech firms are investing heavily in AI to protect themselves from competition, even though they don't see immediate profits.
  3. China is now the main driver of global warming, and other countries have significantly cut their CO2 emissions. Tackling climate change is increasingly seen as a challenge that China needs to address.

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-11-27 We

115 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic Policy Political trends Political Economy Social Issues
  1. Zero-sum thinking is on the rise, where people believe that economic growth takes away from someone else instead of benefiting everyone. This mindset can lead to less motivation and lower innovation in society.
  2. The belief that changes in the economy will harm individuals' existing benefits is a growing concern. Many people are starting to think that opportunities for advancement are limited.
  3. Recent predictions suggest that the U.S. economy could surprise us with better growth than expected. This positive outlook contrasts with the general fears of economic decline.