Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality $10 / month

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality explores economic history, economics, political economy, finance, and forecasting with a focus on understanding and addressing the complexities of contemporary global challenges. It critically analyzes current events, historical occurrences, and theoretical perspectives to offer insight into economic inequalities, democracy, neoliberal ideas, and geopolitical tensions.

Economic History Political Economy Finance and Forecasting Contemporary Global Challenges Economic Inequalities Democracy and Governance Neoliberalism Geopolitical Tensions

The hottest Substack posts of Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality

And their main takeaways

Fear of a Black Pope!

207 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
🕹 Technology AI Models Ethics Software Industry Chatbots Machine Learning
  1. People have high expectations of AI models like GPT, but they are not flawless and have limitations.
  2. The panic over an AI model's depiction of a Black Pope reveals societal biases regarding race and gender.
  3. AI chatbots like Gemini are viewed in different ways by users and enthusiasts, leading to conflicting expectations of their capabilities.

People Should Not Prioritize What They Think Are "Vibes" Over Actual Data: The Economic Situation Really Is—Relative to All Other Years since 2000—Excellent

215 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economy Media Polling Partisanship Data Analysis
  1. Don't prioritize 'vibes' over actual data - the economy is actually excellent compared to past years.
  2. Partisanship influences perceptions of the economy - Democrats more optimistic than Republicans.
  3. Journalists sometimes emphasize negative news, even when data shows a positive economic situation.

We Need to Do Better than Hum 1 & Soc Sci 2 in General Education

215 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
🚌 Education Humanities Higher education Liberal Arts Critical Thinking
  1. The purpose of humanities in education should be more than teaching a limited view of Western literature and thought.
  2. It is valuable to provide students with a broad liberal education that includes exposure to different perspectives, even critical ones.
  3. American universities should focus on teaching true facts and how to think critically rather than implanting specific values.
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DRAFT: Notes: What Is the Techno-Optimist Slant on “AI”?

169 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
🕹 Technology AI Machine Learning Data Analysis Tech industry Digital Transformation
  1. Very large-scale, high-dimension regression and classification analysis will be game-changing, transforming bureaucracy to algorithms with significant impacts across sectors from finance to healthcare.
  2. Natural-language interfaces to databases may be challenging to control but offer more intuitive access to vast information repositories, potentially enhancing user efficiency.
  3. Autocomplete technology provides substantial time savings for white-collar workers, illustrating the significant productivity boost modern technologies can offer.

Do Not Spend too Much Time "Getting Good" at Dealing with Current AML GPT LLMs

169 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Machine Learning Artificial Intelligence Data science Internet Software
  1. It's uncertain how current AML GPT LLMs will be most useful in the future, so spending too much time trying to master them may not be the best approach.
  2. Proper prompting is crucial when working with AML GPT LLMs as they can be capable of more than initially apparent. Good prompts can make tasks that seem impossible into achievable ones.
  3. Understanding the thought processes and effective way to prompt AML GPT LLMs is essential, as their responses can vary based on subtle changes or inadequate prompting.

Nobody Expected Our Current Interest-Rate Configuration

153 implied HN points • 08 Mar 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates Monetary Policy Economic outlook Federal Reserve Inflation
  1. Many were surprised by the current interest-rate situation in the US, with rates significantly higher than expected.
  2. Market changes in 2022 led to a drastic increase in long-term real safe interest rates, signaling shifts in Federal Reserve policy.
  3. The current interest-rate configuration, considerably higher than anticipated, raised concerns about a looming recession among experts.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: A Woman Called "Toad"

153 implied HN points • 24 Feb 24
🎭️ Culture History Philosophy Literature Art & Illustration
  1. The classification and cultural appropriation of historical figures can be misleading and can lead to misconceptions about their identities.
  2. We must be cautious about labeling ancient civilizations as 'white guys' because it overlooks their true identities, leading to missed opportunities for learning and growth.
  3. It's important to recognize the alien nature of classical Greeks and Romans and not project modern ideologies onto them, acknowledging the differences to gain a deeper understanding.

PROJECT SYNDICATE: What Is the Fed Thinking?

161 implied HN points • 06 Feb 24
💰 Finance Monetary Policy Interest Rates Inflation Economy
  1. The US Federal Reserve is hesitant to adjust its policy interest rate despite the economy being in balance.
  2. The Fed remains cautious about aligning rates with the neutral rate due to uncertainties in the economic outlook and inflation risks.
  3. The announcement of maintaining the federal funds rate range at 5.25-5.5% raised concerns given the already balanced US macroeconomy.

On Michael Mann's "On Wars"

153 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🚌 Education Review Analysis War Peace Human behavior
  1. Wars are negative-sum activities where mistakes are made by one or both parties involved.
  2. The book 'On Wars' by Michael Mann explores the history and nature of war, aiming to understand the underlying causes of conflicts and achieve peace.
  3. Chris Blattman's 'Why We Fight' provides a useful sociology of war by identifying key types of mistakes that lead to wars, offering insights to guide toward peace.

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-03-01 Fr

146 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
🚌 Education Economics Global Warming History Neofascism
  1. Warren Buffett expanded his investment philosophy following advice from Munger, which led to adding wonderful businesses purchased at fair prices
  2. Stock pundits have faced criticism for underperformance and being influenced by popular views, impacting small and mid-capitalisation stocks
  3. Berkshire Hathaway Energy's financial stability in the face of climate change contrasts with utilities like PG&E and Hawaiian Electric facing bankruptcy

Understanding Why so Many, Many False Starts in Sub-Saharan Africa...

153 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Africa Government Leadership Reform Development
  1. Sub-Saharan Africa faces challenges in creating successful governance systems that align with the population's needs and aspirations.
  2. Building functional and enduring states in sub-Saharan Africa may require reimagining the government structure from the ground up through inclusive conversations within communities.
  3. The ideal government model could be one that focuses on efficient administration and coordinates production processes, as seen in countries like Denmark and Singapore.

BRIEFLY NOTED: 2024-02-12 Mo

146 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💼 Business Economics Journamalism Spatial Computing Industrial Policy Interest Rates
  1. Capital is increasingly substituting labor, affecting income inequality and job opportunities.
  2. Some New York Times reporters display lack of awareness about key policies and issues, raising questions about the purpose of journalism.
  3. The Apple Vision Pro VR headset is considered innovative but not without limitations, targeting a specific tech-savvy audience.

Paul Schmelzing Is Coming to Berkeley to Talk About Interest Rates since 1310!

130 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
💰 Finance Interest Rates Economic Growth Financial Markets
  1. The graph shows a decline in global real interest rates over 800 years, challenging the idea of 'secular stagnation'.
  2. Interest rates' evolution over history raises questions about the relationship between the rate of profit, societal changes, and financial market dynamics.
  3. Factors like technological progress, income growth, and human behaviors impact the slope of the real intertemporal price system, affecting interest rates.

HOISTED FROM THE ARCHIVES: Origins of Fascism in the Modern Pace of Econo-Social Creative Destruction

123 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🚌 Education Philosophy Literature History Politics Science
  1. In the past, social networks largely determined who you were, but in modern times, you have the power to choose your own social network and reinvent yourself.
  2. With the rise of modern economic growth after 1870, the pace of change accelerated, leading to the disappearance of many traditional social roles and the need for individuals to adapt and choose new paths.
  3. Loneliness and totalitarianism can arise from the disconnection and lack of common experience in modern societies, with anger and desperation fueling negative solidarity, leading to negative consequences.

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-02-14 We

123 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Economic History Economics Global Warming Moral Philosophy Public Reason
  1. The COVID-19 depression and subsequent reopening have not generated consistent lessons for the future given its unique nature
  2. There are significant macro distortions in the current economy, including massive consumer spending shifts, supply chain disruptions, and job market imbalances
  3. Global warming continues to progress, as evidenced by alarming images and reports

WEEKLY BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-12-11 We

23 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economics Finance War Policy Politics
  1. Quasars are super bright and energetic objects in space, powered by black holes consuming material. They help astronomers understand our universe better.
  2. Current economic policies, especially under recent U.S. leadership, are shaping the economy in complex ways, with stock market reactions being particularly important.
  3. Using AI can be helpful, but it's important to know when to rely on it. It can aid in tasks we could do ourselves but shouldn't replace deep learning and understanding.

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-03-07 Th

107 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💼 Business Economics Economic History Public Reason Neofascism
  1. Elon Musk's actions are generating controversy and dividing opinions. His decisions are affecting his employees and leading to legal battles.
  2. Passive investing creates opportunities for active investors through analyzing fundamental news, noise trading, and security analysis.
  3. Peter Drucker viewed corporations as potential leaders for societal betterment by subordinating markets to social needs and environmental protection.

Econ 115 :: The World Economy in the 20th Century :: Lecture 6 :: Post-1870 Technological Acceleration

115 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
🚌 Education Economic History Globalization
  1. Technological advancements post-1870 were accelerated by globalization and the establishment of industrial research labs and modern corporations.
  2. Institutions like industrial research labs and modern corporations revolutionized the discovery, development, deployment, and diffusion of technologies, leading to modern economic growth.
  3. These institutions were successful because they were built on the foundations of systematic processes and sustained efforts, unlike earlier hit-or-miss approaches.

Noting the Appearance of Chris Dixon's Book "Read, Write, Own": Am I Still Allowed to Believe in Web3?

99 implied HN points • 24 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Blockchain Web3 Cryptocurrency Investing
  1. Questioning beliefs in web3 technologies is valid, especially in the context of Chris Dixon's book 'Read, Write, Own'.
  2. Advocating for ownership and control of personal data on the internet, believing in the importance of owning digital tracks and controlling access to them.
  3. Suggesting that for credibility in promoting web3 technologies, there is a need for substantial investment in software infrastructure and genuine use cases rather than hyperbolic promotion.

A Note: What Is "Management" Anyway?

92 implied HN points • 28 Feb 24
💼 Business Management Consulting Theory Bureaucracy Market
  1. Management is different from hierarchical command-and-control, bureaucratic obedience, and market haggling. It's about reconciling various interests for the smooth operation of the system.
  2. Peter F. Drucker viewed the manager as a trustee of civilization and envisioned a role that balanced freedom, efficiency, equity, and order.
  3. Management is seen as a profession that aligns the interests of all stakeholders while ensuring the free development of individuals within society.

Recent Notes...

23 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political theory Public Policy Political Commentary Cultural analysis Political Philosophy
  1. Understanding C.P. Snow's idea of 'The Two Cultures' can help bridge the gap between technical and humanities disciplines. People can become smarter by learning from both sides.
  2. John Ganz is pointed out as a smart and hard-working person who could benefit from this balanced approach. Learning from different fields can enhance one's thinking and decision-making.
  3. It's important to encourage others to broaden their horizons, as this can lead to personal and professional growth. Sharing knowledge across different areas is valuable for everyone's development.

What To Do About the Dependence of the Form Progress Takes on Power?: Quick Takes on Acemoglu & Johnson's "Power & Progress"

76 implied HN points • 29 Feb 24
🚌 Education Technology Economics Social Issues Political Economy Innovation
  1. The distribution of technological progress can be influenced by the balance of power in both markets and politics.
  2. Technologies can have both positive and negative impacts on society, so it's important to consider the distributional effects.
  3. Diverse perspectives and opinions are crucial in shaping better and more equitable technological trajectories.

Were We Expelled from Egalitarian Eden Not by the Pomegranate, But by the Plough and the Ox? Perhaps...

76 implied HN points • 25 Feb 24
💾 History Civilizations Inequality Agriculture
  1. The shift from gatherer-hunter lifestyles to farming and domestication of animals may have contributed to the emergence of enduring economic inequality.
  2. Increased civilizational complexity led to a rise in potential wealth inequalities, possibly through factors like tools, farm implements, domesticated animals, serfdom, and slavery.
  3. Exploring the dimensions of wealth acquisition and accumulation, such as tools, farmstead implements, animals, serfdom, and slavery, can help understand the expansion of possible wealth inequalities.

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2024-02-25 Su

76 implied HN points • 25 Feb 24
💼 Business Economics Public Reason History
  1. Branko Milanovic discusses visions of inequality, highlighting the importance of technological and business-model research and development in market economies.
  2. Shifting expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts reflect a debate about the impact of maniacal bubbles and policy near-neutrality in a balanced economy.
  3. The need for individuals to stay focused on reality outside media perceptions and the impact of lags in economic understanding discussed by Jeffrey Frankel supporting the idea that perceptions lag behind reality.

The 2018 "Slouching" Draft "Themes" Chapter

15 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
📚 Literature Non-fiction Critique Narrative History Culture
  1. The discussion explores multiple important themes that happened alongside the main events of the 20th century. It's important to look at history from different angles instead of just one big story.
  2. There are at least six significant things that shaped our world that often get overlooked. These aspects help us better understand the complexities of history.
  3. Widening our perspective helps us appreciate the richness of our past and how it affects our present and future. Recognizing these different themes can lead to a deeper understanding of society.

BRIEFLY NOTED: For 2023-03-18 Mo

69 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
💼 Business Economics Global Warming Human Capital Neofascism
  1. Economic transformations involve recognizing opportunities, investing, experiencing euphoria, and dealing with crashes, crises, and adjustments.
  2. In the Biden Administration, there is notable tension between departments like Treasury and the Pentagon, hampering collaboration for economic change.
  3. Understanding collective intelligence and distributed cognition is crucial - global economic challenges require more than individual human capabilities.

"Slouching Towards Utopia": The Sean Illing "Grey Area" Interview

38 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Economic History Neoliberalism Political Ideologies
  1. The interview discusses economic growth and sustainable resource distribution, focusing on the perspectives of Friedrich von Hayek and Karl Polanyi.
  2. DeLong emphasizes the importance of historical perspective in understanding current economic and social challenges, advocating for a more inclusive and equitable economic model.
  3. The conversation explores the historical 'Long Twentieth Century' and its impact on human productivity, wealth creation, and the need for innovative solutions to address current existential challenges.

Recent Notes...

7 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🚌 Education Literacy Critical Thinking Philosophy Cultural Studies Theory
  1. C.P. Snow's The Two Cultures highlights the divide between the sciences and humanities. Learning more about both can make anyone smarter.
  2. John Ganz is an example of a hardworking person who could benefit from understanding the ideas in Snow's work.
  3. The goal of sharing this information is to help readers become smarter and enhance their understanding of important cultural concepts.