Erdmann Housing Tracker

Erdmann Housing Tracker explores the multifaceted reasons behind escalating housing costs, including the impacts of urban regulation, economic models, homeownership trends, and monetary policy. The Substack provides data-driven analyses on inflation, housing supply shortages, regulatory effects, and proposes solutions for improving housing affordability and stability.

Housing Market Trends Urban Planning and Regulation Economic Policy and Inflation Homeownership and Renting Dynamics Monetary Policy Supply and Demand in Housing Global Financial Crisis Demographic Impacts on Housing Construction and Housing Supply Gentrification and Displacement Affordable Housing Strategies

The hottest Substack posts of Erdmann Housing Tracker

And their main takeaways

When we lost our minds: Pt. 3 The Dog that Didn’t Bark - Retirement Homes

105 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Real Estate
  1. Housing prices in different neighborhoods react differently to economic changes. In Atlanta, for instance, while the economy was severely impacted, the wealthy neighborhoods faced less of a decline compared to lower-income areas.
  2. Retirement communities usually rely less on credit markets, as many buyers pay in cash. This makes them interesting places to study housing trends and market responses to economic events.
  3. Local housing supply issues can drive prices up across all neighborhoods, not just low-income ones. When there's not enough housing built, even retirement homes can see rising costs.

Follow-Up: Mortgages by Credit Score

105 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgages Credit Scores Housing Market
  1. The average down payment for mortgages has stayed about the same since 1996, showing that lending standards haven’t changed as much as some people think.
  2. Home values and lending practices dramatically shifted between 2007 and 2009, leading to a decline in the quality of new mortgages, which affected the overall housing market.
  3. The decline in home values wasn't just a sudden crisis but a long-term issue influenced by lending practices and market perceptions, resulting in many areas experiencing just steady downturns without previous booms.

Builder Incentives and Profits

63 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Investment Strategies Economic Trends
  1. Builders like Lennar are using cash discounts to sell homes, which can create a misleading price for buyers. Buyers may end up paying more due to high 'menu prices' even if they think they are getting a good deal.
  2. There are risks for mortgaged buyers when home prices fall. They might be stuck with a mortgage amount that is higher than the real value of their home, leading to losses or foreclosure situations.
  3. Unlike in past housing crises, current market conditions have regulators and the Federal Reserve focused on avoiding a housing crash. The situation today is more stable, reducing the chances of a major crisis like in 2008.

Dallas vs. Austin: Brief Clarification

21 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban Development Economic Trends Land use
  1. Dallas and Austin are two different cities with their own unique characteristics. It's good to know what sets them apart when considering living or investing there.
  2. Understanding the housing market in both cities can help you make better decisions. Each area has different trends and demands.
  3. Comparing these cities can provide insights into job opportunities and lifestyle options. It’s important to think about what matters most to you.

Dallas vs. Austin

21 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Economics Construction
  1. Rents are going down in both Dallas and Austin, but Austin is seeing a bigger drop. This indicates a shift in the housing market.
  2. There's a clear trend happening in real estate that can be tracked through data, which helps understand rental prices and construction activity.
  3. It's important to keep an eye on housing supply and demand, as they play a key role in rental prices across major Texas cities.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

The Fed and Lennar

63 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Markets Investing Economics Monetary Policy Real Estate
  1. Inflation is still high, which affects the economy and people's spending. It's a major concern for many people right now.
  2. The Fed raises borrowing costs to control inflation, but this can also influence mortgage rates. Higher borrowing costs usually mean higher mortgage rates.
  3. There's a belief that when the Fed slows down on rate cuts, mortgage rates will rise further, impacting people's desire to buy homes. However, this idea may not be as straightforward as it seems.

November 2024 Residential Construction

63 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Mortgage Rates Construction Employment
  1. Mortgage rates are really important for the housing market. They can greatly affect both people's ability to buy homes and the rate of construction jobs.
  2. Tracking construction employment can give insights into the housing market trends. It’s a clear indicator of how the market is responding to interest rates.
  3. There are ongoing challenges in the housing market, and the data can sometimes seem tricky. It's like a game where understanding the numbers is key to navigating the situation.

A Crash vs. a Correction

21 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Price analysis Investment Strategies
  1. The Erdmann Housing Tracker helps understand the reasons behind changes in housing prices. It can show whether a price change is due to a crash or a correction.
  2. Using examples from places like Phoenix and Austin can clarify how different factors influence real estate trends. Looking at specific cities can provide a clearer picture.
  3. Being aware of market trends can help you make smarter decisions in buying or selling homes. It's important to understand what is happening in the housing market.

Renters and the mortgage crackdown aftermath

105 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Mortgages Economic Trends
  1. Renters suffered a lot from stricter mortgage rules after 2008. Many renters ended up paying more due to fewer homes being built.
  2. There is a big difference in rent prices between rental apartments and owned homes. Renters often find they're spending more for less quality compared to homeowners.
  3. To fix these problems, we need either a lot more new rental buildings or easier access to mortgages for families. If not, many will keep struggling in high-priced rental markets.

The Housing Shortage by Metro Area, Part 4

84 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Real Estate Economic Theory Urban planning
  1. There is a housing shortage, which means there are not enough homes available for people who need them. This shortage can lead to high prices and long waiting lists for affordable housing.
  2. When rent control is put in place, it may help some tenants afford their homes but can also lead to declining quality of living conditions. Property owners often stop maintaining their properties, which can create additional problems.
  3. Access to mortgage loans is important for homebuyers. If people can't get loans to buy homes, it reduces the amount of housing being supplied in the market, contributing to the overall shortage of available homes.

Rent inflation since Covid

126 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Inflation Economic Trends Urban Development Migration
  1. Rent prices have risen significantly since Covid, especially in areas with low housing supply. This has caused many families to struggle with housing costs.
  2. After a temporary shift in housing demand during the pandemic, some families moved away from expensive urban areas. However, this has led to rising rents in previously cheaper neighborhoods.
  3. Currently, rent inflation seems to be moderating, which is good news for families. If housing construction continues to grow, it could help families afford better living situations.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 4 Leamer's Counsel

63 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Monetary Policy Real Estate
  1. Housing start numbers are key indicators of upcoming recessions. When fewer homes are being built, it's often a sign that an economic downturn is near.
  2. The Federal Reserve may have waited too long to react to a housing market that was overheating, which ultimately could have led to more severe economic issues later on.
  3. In cities with strict building regulations, rising housing prices are often due to limited supply rather than demand. This creates significant issues like rent inflation and forced migration.

October 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker Update

105 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Urban Development Supply Chain
  1. Rents are going up because there's not enough housing supply. Even as rents rise, home prices continue to reflect this shortage.
  2. Since the housing crisis in 2008, homes in larger cities have generally become cheaper, while smaller cities have seen their prices increase. The mortgage restrictions ended up making things worse for affordable housing.
  3. The main issue with housing costs isn't about big-city advantages, but rather it's about how difficult it is to build new homes in many areas, leading to a supply problem.

When we lost our minds: Pt. 2 Respecting the Timeline

63 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Home prices in cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas showed clear patterns before and after the 2008 housing crisis. They experienced a boom, then a downturn when lending tightened.
  2. During the crisis, low-tier home prices dropped more than high-tier prices. This happened because many poor families couldn't afford housing and had to move around or suffer from rising rents.
  3. Areas like Miami and Tampa had different dynamics, with more separation in low-tier prices before the crisis. They faced ongoing housing shortages, causing continual price increases even after the market correction.

The Housing Shortage by Metro Area

84 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban planning Economic Inequality Homeownership Real Estate
  1. There's a big housing shortage in many cities, meaning not enough homes are available for everyone who needs one. Building homes could help to lower rising rents and prices.
  2. The real estate market is affected by restrictions on building new homes. If these rules were eased, more homes could be built, which would make housing more affordable.
  3. Investing in new housing could change a lot financially. It could lower the overall value of land but make living situations better for many people, even if it seems risky at first.

November 2024 New Home Sales

42 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Investment Analysis Economic Indicators
  1. New home sales are low, but this is not always a bad sign. It could mean there's room for growth in the market.
  2. There's a high inventory of homes available, giving buyers more options. This can lead to better deals for those looking to purchase.
  3. Having a lot of homes for sale can create competition and could eventually lead to a more balanced housing market. It's important to watch how this evolves.

December 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker

21 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💰 Finance Economics Real Estate Investing Housing Market Trends
  1. Inflation numbers are delayed because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) isn't updated yet. So, we'll have to wait a bit longer for the latest inflation details.
  2. Homebuilders, like KB Homes, continue to report strong earnings despite high mortgage rates. It seems that mortgage rates don't impact homebuilders as much as expected.
  3. There's an ongoing pattern where people keep thinking mortgage rates will disrupt the housing market, but this hasn't really happened lately. It's like a financial mystery that keeps repeating.

Mortgages Outstanding by Credit Score

63 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgages Credit Scores Homeownership Real Estate Economic Trends
  1. After 2008, the number of mortgages given to people with lower credit scores dropped significantly compared to those with higher scores. This changed the lending landscape quite a bit.
  2. High real estate prices are affecting mortgage access more than the other way around. Many lower credit score borrowers are struggling to get mortgages, leading to higher rents and home prices.
  3. The tightening of lending rules since 2008 has made it harder for many people to become homeowners, leading to a market where only certain buyers can take advantage of low interest rates and good prices.

What Homes Are Missing (by Tenure)?

84 implied HN points • 11 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Housing policy Urban Development Economic Impacts
  1. Many families are moving from cities with low homeownership to suburbs where buying homes is easier. This shift is due to different housing policies in urban areas that limit new building.
  2. There is a significant shortage of homes, estimated to be around 10 million units. This shortage is partly caused by barriers to mortgage access and the decline in new home construction.
  3. The market for rental homes is expected to grow because of the high demand for housing. However, local rules and costs may prevent enough new homes from being built to meet this demand.

November 2024 Erdmann Housing Tracker

42 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Economics Monetary Policy Market Trends
  1. Inflation has been steadily around 2% since July 2022, excluding housing costs. This shows a consistent trend rather than sudden spikes.
  2. The Federal Reserve has managed to control most types of inflation, but rent prices remain outside of their control. This situation creates a misunderstanding about overall inflation levels.
  3. There's a belief that inflation might change direction suddenly, but the speaker sees no reason for that to happen. The last 29 months have shown stability in most areas.

October 2024 Residential Construction

63 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Economic Trends Investment
  1. Home construction costs have risen over time, but the price hikes for new homes are affected more by land costs and less by construction costs. This means that it's getting harder for average families to afford homes, as they are paying more for existing homes due to limited supply.
  2. In higher-end markets, the quality and size of new homes aren’t keeping up with rising incomes. Despite inflation, average people are struggling more because the character of new homes is changing despite high land values.
  3. The overall housing market reflects different trends for rich and average buyers. Wealthier buyers usually track new home costs, while average buyers feel the squeeze from existing home prices influenced by constrained supply.

Homebuilder Earnings Update

42 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Investment Analysis Market research Real Estate
  1. Homebuilder earnings are being updated, which is important for understanding the housing market. This update can give insights into how homebuilders are performing financially.
  2. Keeping track of homebuilder performance can help in making informed decisions about buying or selling a home. If builders are doing well, it might indicate a strong housing market.
  3. The information provided is available through a subscription service, which offers more detailed analyses and insights. Exploring these resources can be beneficial for those interested in housing trends.

October 2024 Inflation and Housing

63 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💰 Finance Inflation Housing Monetary Policy Economic Trends
  1. Inflation is returning to a 2% trend, which is good news, but this isn't widely reported. This trend is important for future monetary policy decisions.
  2. Rent inflation is finally slowing down, and maintaining consistent home prices is helping this situation. Focusing on general inflation rather than rent can help stabilize the economy.
  3. Excessive rent inflation has been controlled, but there should be a focus on building more homes over the next decade to further improve housing affordability.

October 2024 New Home Sales

42 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgage Rates Market Analysis Sales trends
  1. New home sales have sharply decreased recently, which may be linked to high mortgage rates. This situation is causing a lot of homes to sit on the market longer.
  2. The increase in months of inventory suggests that buyers are hesitant or unable to purchase new homes right now. This might indicate a cooling off in the housing market.
  3. The article hints at changes in the housing market that could be significant. Understanding these trends can help potential buyers and sellers make informed decisions.

Follow Up to Case-Shiller & Filtering

42 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis Data Trends Economic Indicators
  1. The author analyzed different housing data like Case-Shiller and rent inflation. It's interesting to see how these data points relate to each other.
  2. There are components in the Erdmann Housing Tracker that provide extra insights on the housing market. Comparing these with other measurements helps to understand trends better.
  3. The analysis is not meant for academic purposes, but it's a fun exploration of the data. It shows how digging into numbers can reveal patterns.

Updating my priors on missing middle

379 implied HN points • 03 Mar 24
💼 Business Real Estate Housing Market Urban Development Supply and Demand
  1. Missing middle housing developments can be more impactful in addressing housing affordability issues than previously thought.
  2. Simply advocating for 'build more' without considering the complexity and various factors at play may not fully address housing supply constraints.
  3. Increasing the construction of 'missing middle' housing units significantly could play a crucial role in normalizing the American housing market and addressing housing shortages.

Disgusting

337 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Social Issues Community Dynamics Aesthetics Social Change
  1. A community's shared beliefs can drive reactions of disgust and aesthetics are deeply intertwined with morals and affiliations.
  2. Local housing regulations often have classist roots, leading to unintended consequences like increased homelessness and cost of living pressures.
  3. Aesthetics in housing can be used as a tool for status, hindering change and progress in neighborhoods, but changes have historically occurred when societal attitudes shift.

Against Agglomeration Economies

252 implied HN points • 14 Mar 24
💼 Business Economics Cities Housing Urban Development
  1. Economists often overemphasize the productivity of cities as the reason for expensive housing, leading to misdiagnoses and biases.
  2. High income gains have been observed in cities that didn't experience significant growth in housing units, challenging the concept of agglomeration economies.
  3. Income disparities among cities have increased over time, with a significant impact from Closed Access displacement, showing the importance of considering factors beyond productivity in city assessments.

The Minneapolis Miracle

252 implied HN points • 23 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Construction Economic Trends
  1. Minneapolis experienced a drop in rents in 2021 and 2022 but the correlation between housing construction and rent trends isn't conclusive. It's important to assess data carefully before drawing conclusions.
  2. Auckland, New Zealand, has visible rent decreases due to effective supply-side reforms, contrasting with Minneapolis where the impact of such reforms is less clear.
  3. The correlation between income, new home construction, and rent inflation post-Great Recession reveals unusual patterns, possibly influenced by mortgage suppression policies, highlighting the need for comprehensive data analysis.

Homeownership is down more than you thought.

252 implied HN points • 02 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing supply Demographics
  1. Homeownership rates can be misleading if not adjusted for changes in household formation and age demographics.
  2. The reported increase in homeownership rates may be due to an aging population rather than a true rise in homeownership.
  3. The shift towards renting and living with roommates may continue unless changes are made in housing supply and mortgage regulations.

Why more housing appears to make things worse

168 implied HN points • 01 Mar 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Supply Demand Economic Impact Urban Development
  1. About 30-40% of people don't believe increasing housing supply will lower prices or rents.
  2. In cities with limited housing supply, population growth can lead to decreased housing availability, impacting affordability.
  3. Cities that don't build enough housing can have negative impacts on low-income residents, forcing displacement and exacerbating housing affordability issues.

A Brief Technical Review of the Alternative Housing Story

168 implied HN points • 30 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Economics Housing Market Credit Supply and Demand
  1. Cities like Los Angeles face housing supply issues due to low permit approvals compared to cities like Atlanta and Phoenix.
  2. National housing market statistics can be misleading as there are extreme regional differences.
  3. The myth of a credit bubble causing price bubbles is debunked, with evidence showing price spikes before rise in debt in housing markets.

Hsieh, Moretti, Shiller, and the Rest: Part 3

168 implied HN points • 04 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Home Prices
  1. The rise in home prices is mainly due to obstruction of urban housing rather than urban productivity.
  2. High urban rents have increased nationally post-2008 due to federal lending policies lowering housing production everywhere.
  3. Rising rents explain almost all of the increase in home prices, with excess rent accounting for a significant portion of residential real estate value.

Fear of Affordable Housing

126 implied HN points • 22 Feb 24
💼 Business Real Estate Investing Economics Policy Market Analysis
  1. Developers and builders fear the loss in the value of their land investments if political obstructions to construction were lifted.
  2. Rents are unlikely to decline significantly in a whole metropolitan area due to new housing supply - housing demand is inelastic.
  3. Invest carefully in real estate market based on real trends but don't let fears about collapsing rents impact your views on housing justice or macroeconomic trends.