The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd)

The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd) explores various aspects of not-knowing, emphasizing the importance of flexibility and adaptability. It covers topics like consulting approaches, handling clutter, AI limitations, organizational adaptability, managing uncertainty, and personal growth in uncertain times.

Consulting Artificial Intelligence Organizational Dynamics Uncertainty Management Personal Development Minimalism and Clutter Education and Skill Development Health Crises and Responses

The hottest Substack posts of The Uncertainty Mindset (soon to become tbd)

And their main takeaways

Meaning-making makes us human (for now).

39 implied HN points • 18 Jan 23
🕹 Technology AI Machine Learning Humanity Innovation Philosophy
  1. Humans create meaning, and that's what makes us unique. Unlike machines, which can mimic behavior, true understanding of meaning is still a human skill.
  2. As technology advances, our definition of what it means to be human may change. When machines can make meaning, we might need to rethink our ideas of human-ness.
  3. Engaging in discussions about uncertainty can help us explore our thoughts and beliefs. It's important to challenge ideas and learn from different perspectives.

The uncertainty mindset

219 implied HN points • 14 Oct 19
💼 Business Management Strategy Leadership Finance Innovation
  1. Risk and uncertainty are not the same. We often confuse the two, but dealing with true uncertainty needs a different approach than just managing risks.
  2. Businesses need to adapt to unexpected changes. Having a flexible mindset can help companies navigate uncertain situations more effectively.
  3. Understanding uncertainty can improve personal and professional growth. Embracing uncertainty helps with better decision-making and can lead to new discoveries.

#31: Alternative sociality

159 implied HN points • 03 Jun 20
💼 Business Management Entrepreneurship Organization Collaboration Innovation
  1. Uncertainty can push people to explore new ways of collaborating that they wouldn't consider in normal times. This can lead to creative solutions and innovations.
  2. Amorphous organizations have flexible memberships and allow diverse types of participants. This inclusivity can enable them to adapt better to changing conditions.
  3. It's important for organizations to maintain some level of inefficiency and diversity to stay adaptable for future changes, even if it seems counterproductive now.

#1: Varieties of the unknown

179 implied HN points • 06 Nov 19
💼 Business Finance Risk management Decision-making Economics Strategy
  1. There are different types of unknown situations we can face. It's important to recognize these differences because they affect how we make decisions.
  2. A common mistake is treating real uncertainty like risk, thinking we can predict outcomes when we really can't. Understanding this can help us better navigate complex situations.
  3. We need to find new ways to plan and react when faced with unknown outcomes, since these scenarios are becoming more common. Simply applying a risk mindset isn't enough.
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#19: Unreasonable measures

139 implied HN points • 11 Mar 20
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Pandemic response Government Policy Healthcare systems Crisis Management
  1. Extraordinary situations, like a rapidly spreading virus, require extreme measures. Normal responses may not be enough to prevent serious issues.
  2. It's important for both individuals and governments to take immediate, strong actions to slow the spread of infections. Delaying these actions can lead to much bigger problems later on.
  3. By practicing social distancing and being cautious, you can help protect yourself and others. Small inconveniences now can save lives and prevent overwhelming the healthcare system.

Monochrome

19 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
🎭️ Culture Art Innovation Meaning Creativity Human experience
  1. Innovation relies on understanding and engaging with what we don't know. It's important to accept uncertainty to create new ideas.
  2. Acknowledging what we don't know doesn't make us less credible; instead, it shows we're willing to explore and improve our understanding.
  3. Meaning-making is a uniquely human skill that involves creating connections between ideas, which machines currently struggle to replicate.

#3: Reality mining

139 implied HN points • 20 Nov 19
💼 Business Strategy Innovation Education Uncertainty Creativity
  1. Negative capability helps you handle uncertainty without getting stuck. It's about being okay with not knowing everything while still taking action.
  2. There are two types of negative capability: soldier-on, which helps you push forward despite uncertainty, and beginner-mind, which lets you see new values and possibilities in what's already around you.
  3. In a world that values innovation, embracing a flexible mindset allows you to find creative solutions and make the most of the resources you have at hand.

At the fairs

19 implied HN points • 08 Feb 23
🎭️ Culture Social norms Happiness Events Philosophy Lifestyle
  1. It's important to change how we think about not-knowing. Instead of seeing it as a bad thing, we can view it as a chance to be curious and explore new ideas.
  2. Dealing with not-knowing isn't about getting rid of it but learning to accept and work with it. This helps us adapt and discover new opportunities.
  3. Slowing down and reflecting can be beneficial, especially in a fast-paced world. Taking time to think helps us understand what truly matters.

#21: The consequences of inaction

119 implied HN points • 25 Mar 20
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Pandemic response Health Systems Policy decisions Economic Impact
  1. Taking extreme measures early to control a virus might seem unreasonable, but it can save lives and prevent bigger problems later on.
  2. Not acting quickly can lead to more deaths, a sicker workforce, and many businesses shutting down, which hurts the economy as a whole.
  3. We need to shift our thinking from trying to minimize known costs to understanding that the costs of inaction can be much higher and more damaging.

#18: Coronavirus

119 implied HN points • 04 Mar 20
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Pandemics Health Policy Risk management
  1. It's hard to know how long someone can spread the virus without showing symptoms. The lengths of these periods can vary a lot.
  2. Contagion can spread quickly because people who seem healthy might still be infectious. This makes tracking and isolating cases much harder.
  3. Even though it might seem like the flu is more dangerous, we don't have the same defenses against coronavirus, making the potential for widespread issues very real.

#15: Maintenance by design

119 implied HN points • 12 Feb 20
💼 Business Organizational Design Systems Thinking Strategic Planning Change Management
  1. Maintenance isn't just about fixing broken things. It can also mean improving what already exists and ensuring everything runs smoothly.
  2. Design systems to be flexible and aware of changes in their environment. This helps them adapt quickly without breaking down.
  3. Having a diverse setup, like different types of wheat in a field, makes systems more stable and less fragile. They can adjust better to unexpected challenges.

#30: Fear of failure

99 implied HN points • 27 May 20
💼 Business Leadership Innovation Corporate strategy Organizational Behavior Emotional Intelligence
  1. Fear of failure stops big companies from being creative and trying new things. They worry too much about losing their reputation.
  2. Innovation often leads to failure, but it is also essential for success. Big companies need to accept that some failure is part of the process.
  3. Leaders in large organizations know innovation is necessary but might hold back because they fear taking risks that could lead to failure. This can lead to less exciting results in their work.

#4: Strategic uncertainty

119 implied HN points • 27 Nov 19
💼 Business Management Strategy Innovation Leadership Entrepreneurship
  1. Recognizing and managing uncertainty is becoming a rare and valuable skill, both for individuals and organizations. Those who develop this 'uncertainty mindset' can gain a strategic advantage.
  2. To improve adaptability in uncertain environments, organizations should rethink job roles to allow for improvisation and flexibility. This means creating expectations for employees to explore and adapt their responsibilities.
  3. Real learning about managing uncertainty happens through real experiences, rather than traditional corporate training. Leaders need to create work cultures that encourage exploration to build the uncertainty mindset among employees.

#27: Ambient uncertainty, Part 1

99 implied HN points • 06 May 20
📖 Philosophy Uncertainty Mindset Psychology Routine
  1. Life can feel uncertain and unpredictable, especially during tough times. Finding joy in small daily victories helps us cope with this unpredictability.
  2. Being used to a predictable routine makes sudden changes feel scary. We need to build up our comfort with uncertainty so we can handle bigger challenges better.
  3. Creating small surprises or fun moments in our daily routines can help us look forward to the unexpected. This way, we can embrace uncertainty instead of fearing it.

#17: Boris

99 implied HN points • 26 Feb 20
💼 Business Management Innovation Strategy Leadership Organizational Behavior
  1. In uncertain situations, traditional goal-setting doesn't work well because it assumes we can predict the right goals in advance. Instead, teams need a flexible approach that allows them to adapt to changing circumstances.
  2. The Boris method encourages teams to discuss trade-offs rather than focusing solely on specific goals. By understanding the limitations and constraints, team members can make better decisions and act more autonomously.
  3. When teams clarify what they can and can’t do through conversation, they become more effective. This practice fosters a deeper understanding of the resources available and helps everyone align their efforts toward innovation.

#38: Agathonicity

79 implied HN points • 22 Jul 20
🪑 Design Product Design User Experience Sustainability Innovation
  1. Agathonicity means some things get better with use. For example, your favorite pair of worn-in shoes or a well-loved book can provide a richer experience over time.
  2. Many modern products are designed to be thrown away instead of repaired. This throwaway culture makes us less likely to seek out items that improve with age and care.
  3. Designers can create products that require more from users, leading to a stronger, more loyal connection. By asking users to engage more, items can become more valuable and enjoyable over time.

Learning to be productively uncomfortable

39 implied HN points • 18 Oct 21
💼 Business Innovation Entrepreneurship Growth Leadership Strategy
  1. Feeling uncertain can make it hard to take action, but learning to be okay with discomfort can help you move forward. It's important to face that discomfort instead of avoiding it.
  2. Productive discomfort is crucial for growth and learning. Embracing uncomfortable situations can actually lead to positive outcomes and benefits.
  3. Using tools like idk can help you get used to feeling uncomfortable in small ways, which leads to easier handling of bigger challenges later on. With practice, discomfort can become a pathway to success.

#28: Ambient uncertainty, Part 2

79 implied HN points • 13 May 20
🍲 Food & Drink Cooking Culinary Arts Baking Food Science Home Cooking
  1. Pizza making can help you understand and manage uncertainty in everyday life. When you try different flours or toppings, the results can be unpredictable, teaching you to adapt.
  2. Choosing the right flour affects the outcome of your pizza. Using high-quality, less processed flour can lead to unique and flavorful results, embracing unpredictability.
  3. Creating a habit of facing small uncertainties, like making your own pizza, can build your confidence in dealing with bigger uncertainties later on. It turns low-stake situations into learning opportunities.

#23: Undeniable uncertainty

79 implied HN points • 08 Apr 20
💼 Business Management Strategy Finance Operations Marketing
  1. Uncertainty is always present in business, and it can catch you off guard when you least expect it. It’s important to prepare in advance, even if it seems like a waste during stable times.
  2. When facing uncertain situations, businesses should take small, immediate actions instead of waiting for a perfect plan. This helps them learn and adapt quickly to changing circumstances.
  3. Having a clear understanding of goals and trade-offs is essential during times of uncertainty. This allows employees to make effective decisions and take necessary actions without getting stuck.

#50: Leaving money on the table

59 implied HN points • 14 Oct 20
💼 Business Management Finance Strategy Economics Leadership
  1. Being prepared for uncertainty may seem like a waste, but it's actually important. It helps businesses adapt when things go wrong.
  2. Being fair to employees, customers, and suppliers pays off in the long run. If you treat them well, they are more likely to help you in tough times.
  3. Operating responsibly might look inefficient, but it creates flexibility. This flexibility is a valuable resource that businesses can rely on during unpredictable situations.

#49: The work of uncertainty

59 implied HN points • 07 Oct 20
💼 Business Management Innovation Workforce Corporate culture Organizational development
  1. Valuable work today involves adapting and innovating constantly. This means being open to changes in roles as work evolves.
  2. Open-ended roles can lead to worker exploitation if not managed properly, especially for those with low job value. High-value workers, however, can thrive in such flexible environments.
  3. Using open-ended roles and negotiation helps teams evolve and adapt to new challenges. This is crucial for jobs that deal with uncertainty and require creative problem-solving.

#9: Tradeoffs

79 implied HN points • 01 Jan 20
📖 Philosophy Ethics Existentialism Decision Theory Critical Thinking Mental models
  1. Life is full of tradeoffs. When you want something, like a stable job or a big house, you may have to give up other freedoms, like moving easily or having more free time.
  2. It’s important to clearly define what tradeoffs you are okay with. This helps you make better decisions, whether it’s about what to eat or where to live.
  3. Instead of just asking what you want, think about what you are willing to sacrifice. This question helps you understand your priorities and can lead to clearer choices.

#44: The long view

59 implied HN points • 02 Sep 20
💼 Business Strategy Adaptability Innovation Leadership Uncertainty
  1. Long-term thinking is important, but it can trick us into believing we fully understand the future. We need to be aware that the future is still uncertain.
  2. Zooming out to look at the big picture can lead us to mistakenly think that everything is knowable and predictable, which is not the case.
  3. We should adopt an uncertainty mindset, especially now, as recent events have shown us that future changes can be sudden and unexpected.

#41: Surrendering control

59 implied HN points • 12 Aug 20
💼 Business Innovation Leadership Organizational Design Entrepreneurship Work Culture
  1. Sharing unfinished ideas can feel uncomfortable, but it helps improve them. Getting feedback from others is a valuable part of developing your thoughts.
  2. Leaders often hesitate to let go of control because of a fear of failure. Recognizing this fear is the first step to allowing innovation to thrive in an organization.
  3. Creating boundaries and instructions can help leaders let their team innovate without interference. Sometimes, all they need to do is step back and trust their team.

#39: Remove the plow and hive

59 implied HN points • 29 Jul 20
💼 Business Innovation Organizational Design Risk management Flexibility Decision-making
  1. It's important to understand risks properly by knowing all possible outcomes and their chances, instead of just labeling everything uncertain as risky.
  2. Taking small steps and learning from them is better than waiting to act. This helps you understand what's happening as things change.
  3. Being flexible and open to new opportunities is more helpful than trying to make everything super efficient. This way, you're ready when good chances come along.

#20: Being prepared

59 implied HN points • 19 Mar 20
🏥 Health Politics Public Health Emergency Management Pandemic response Food security
  1. Being prepared can help you manage surprises and reduce panic in uncertain situations. It's important to think ahead and stay calm while making decisions.
  2. Having an emergency food supply means stocking up on shelf-stable items that can last a long time. This includes things like rice, pasta, and canned goods.
  3. It's best to gradually build your emergency supply over time and use it only in emergencies. Regularly check and rotate your stock to ensure nothing goes to waste.

#11: Productive discomfort

59 implied HN points • 14 Jan 20
🚌 Education Learning Theory Cognitive Science Professional development Personal Growth
  1. Embracing discomfort can lead to personal growth. Learning new things often feels uncomfortable, but it can help expand your skills and knowledge.
  2. Regularly challenging yourself can make discomfort easier to handle. By gradually exposing yourself to tough situations, you can improve your ability to cope with stress and anxiety.
  3. Curiosity in the face of discomfort leads to valuable insights. Instead of avoiding unpleasant feelings, exploring what makes you uncomfortable can reveal opportunities for learning and innovation.

#5: Cool-climate oceanside

59 implied HN points • 04 Dec 19
💼 Business Management Leadership Mindset Organizational Behavior Causality
  1. The uncertainty mindset means understanding that the future is unpredictable. It allows a person to remain open to new information and possibilities.
  2. Mindsets influence how we think and act. A flexible mindset helps us adapt to changes and can lead to new opportunities for growth.
  3. Leaders can encourage an uncertainty mindset in their teams. This involves being honest about uncertainty and helping employees feel comfortable navigating it.

#43: A new market of ideas

39 implied HN points • 26 Aug 20
💼 Business Publishing Marketing Entrepreneurship Content creation Monetization
  1. Publishing needs to focus on the uncertain aspects like finding authors and creating new types of content. This can help produce unique and diverse books that appeal to different audiences.
  2. Instead of concentrating just on the final book, authors should think about making money from the process of getting there. This means finding ways to earn from workshops, articles, or other interim work.
  3. The publishing industry should consider breaking down its functions, like finding authors and marketing books, instead of trying to do everything at once. This could lead to fresh ideas and better results.

#40: Trials and tribulations

39 implied HN points • 05 Aug 20
📚 Literature Book Writing Publishing Storytelling Research
  1. Change employee roles to be flexible, so they can adapt to new tasks. This helps workers stay engaged and ready for whatever comes next.
  2. Encourage employees to have goals that are open-ended, not just specific tasks. This allows for creativity and helps them find new ways to succeed.
  3. Provide concrete work experiences for training instead of only theory. This hands-on approach helps employees learn better and feel more prepared.

#37: Open space

39 implied HN points • 15 Jul 20
🎭️ Culture Art Design Media Philosophy Innovation
  1. Creating something special requires open space for personal interpretation. When there's too much control from the maker, it limits how others can feel and respond.
  2. Special experiences can happen in many forms, but they are rare. Things that connect the ordinary with something higher often need a balance of simplicity and ambiguity.
  3. Leaving open space means the creator must embrace uncertainty, which can be challenging. Mastering this balance is key to making experiences that truly resonate with people.

#36: Ready for the unexpected

39 implied HN points • 08 Jul 20
💼 Business Management Innovation Risk Strategy Entrepreneurship
  1. Thinking about the future as uncertain helps organizations adapt better to surprises. They can adjust their plans quickly when things change unexpectedly.
  2. A risk mindset focuses on specific expected outcomes and can lead to scrambling when things don't go as planned. This creates stress and confusion in uncertain situations.
  3. Being prepared for the unexpected allows organizations and people to continue functioning normally, even when faced with surprises. This kind of mindset is especially useful in today's unpredictable world.

#35: Patterning, herding, programming

39 implied HN points • 01 Jul 20
📖 Philosophy Uncertainty Risk Innovation Human behavior Collective action
  1. People struggle to see uncertainty because they rely on patterns from the past to predict the future. This can lead to a false sense of security when the future is actually unpredictable.
  2. We tend to follow the crowd and adopt the beliefs of those around us. If everyone thinks the future will be fine, we may ignore our own doubts.
  3. Our daily lives teach us to think about risk rather than true uncertainty. This makes it hard for us to prepare for unexpected changes, limiting our ability to innovate and adapt.

#33: Preference uncertainty

39 implied HN points • 17 Jun 20
💼 Business Strategy Decision-making Outcomes Innovation
  1. Making choices is easier when we clearly know what we prefer. When our preferences are uncertain, it becomes tough to decide on a course of action.
  2. Preference uncertainty happens when we don't know how to rank different outcomes or when we lack complete knowledge about them. This can make it hard to choose what to do.
  3. Businesses also face preference uncertainty, which affects their decision-making, especially when weighing options like safety versus profit or investing in new ideas versus sticking with what works.

#29: Ambient uncertainty, Part 3

39 implied HN points • 20 May 20
🎭️ Culture Food Art Philosophy Lifestyle Wellness
  1. Different types of wheat flour can create different levels of uncertainty in cooking, especially when making pizza. Some flours result in more predictable dough, while others can lead to unexpected results.
  2. Working with flours that create unpredictable outcomes can help us become more comfortable with uncertainty in life. Learning to adapt in small situations might prepare us for bigger uncertainties later on.
  3. Accepting that we can't always control outcomes, like dough turning into soup, can be a valuable lesson. It teaches us to respond with flexibility and patience when things don't go as planned.

#25: A succession of new normals

39 implied HN points • 22 Apr 20
🎭️ Culture Literature Society Philosophy Art History
  1. The concept of 'new normals' means that we will have ongoing changes in how we live and work due to events like the coronavirus. Life won't go back to how it was before right away.
  2. We need to adapt to different stages of lockdowns rather than thinking about reopening completely. This means being flexible and prepared for continuous adjustments.
  3. Certain countries that took fast action have better control over the situation, showing that how we respond to crises matters. Our approaches may need to change based on what tools we have available.

#24: Building capacity

39 implied HN points • 15 Apr 20
🏥 Health & Wellness Mental health Emotional resilience Life Skills Personal Growth
  1. It's important to learn how to handle discomfort in our lives. Facing uncomfortable situations can help us grow and adapt better.
  2. We should practice taking small actions that challenge us. By tackling these little challenges, we can gradually build our confidence and skills.
  3. Engaging with difficult ideas and reaching out to people we admire can help expand our perspectives. It's a good way to learn and connect with others.

#22: The poultry of uncertainty

39 implied HN points • 01 Apr 20
🍲 Food & Drink Cooking Recipes Ingredients Culinary Arts Dining
  1. It's hard to cook something well if you don't know what it is. Understanding the properties of your ingredients helps you make better food.
  2. Making great pizza requires a lot of knowledge about ingredients and techniques. The best pizzas come from understanding how to use different flours, doughs, and toppings properly.
  3. Innovation in cooking, like discovering new ways to use ingredients, can lead to exciting new dishes. The same idea applies to many other areas, such as technology and management.

#16: Working for an uncertain future

39 implied HN points • 19 Feb 20
💼 Business Organizational Behavior Human Resources Innovation Management Practices Strategic Planning
  1. Organizations often stick to old hiring methods that don't fit today's changing world. This can be a problem because roles aren't always clear or stable.
  2. A better approach is 'negotiated joining', where new hires help shape their roles through small tests. This makes it easier for them to adapt when situations change.
  3. Flexible organizations are like willows that bend and adapt, rather than rigid oaks. They can adjust better to uncertainties and continue to thrive.