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Harris is flanking Trump on white male outreach

Jeff Giesea • 738 implied HN points • 06 Aug 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Identity politics Political strategy
  1. Kamala Harris's choice of Tim Walz as her running mate shows a strategy to appeal to straight white men. This move is seen as a way to reach a demographic that typically supports Trump.
  2. There is a belief that Walz's relatable personality and image could attract swing voters who might be on the fence about their political choices. Even small changes in voting patterns could have a big impact in the election.
  3. Harris could further connect with men by addressing their issues directly, which may help her campaign. Speaking on topics relevant to modern males could challenge the narrative and attract more support.

Commentator

Castalia • 579 implied HN points • 22 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policy Government Political parties Campaigns
  1. If Donald Trump had been shot and hadn't reacted, it could have changed politics a lot, making the Republican party scramble for a new leader. It might have led to violence, but it also could have been calmer than expected.
  2. The Democrats seemed resigned to losing the upcoming elections, with many believing Biden needed to step down. Their response has been quiet, as some leaders were preparing a plan to encourage Biden to leave gracefully.
  3. Now that Biden is out and Kamala Harris is the nominee, she needs to lead a strong campaign against Trump. Harris must highlight Trump's threats to democracy while showing she's capable, even though people often view her as insincere.

This Election, Prepare for the Unexpected

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 3348 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Law Political strategy Constitution Campaigns
  1. The outcome of the upcoming presidential election could be very unpredictable. Even if a candidate seems to win, a lot could still happen before they take office.
  2. There are serious questions about the rules governing how votes are counted and certified. Changes have been made to laws, but misunderstandings and disputes could complicate the process.
  3. The possibility of legal challenges is high if there's a conflict after the election. Various interpretations of laws can lead to confusion about who is actually president if issues arise.

Commentator

Castalia • 819 implied HN points • 28 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Debates Political strategy Leadership
  1. Biden needs to step aside as he is not adding any value to the Democratic campaign. If he does so, the party could hold a convention and choose a new candidate who might have a better chance against Trump.
  2. Biden's poor debate performance shows he may not realize how badly it went. It's important for influential people around him to help him see the truth for the good of the party.
  3. Even if the Democratic convention seems messy, it's a valid way to choose a candidate. The party has strong talent and could effectively challenge Trump if Biden makes way for someone new.

Commentator

Castalia • 639 implied HN points • 01 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Leadership Public Opinion Political strategy Campaigns
  1. Many Democrats feel that Biden should step aside for the next election, with polls showing a strong preference for a different candidate. The belief is that Biden's time as a leader may be coming to an end.
  2. Biden's team seems out of touch with public opinion and overestimates his connection with voters. They appear to believe that if they manage the media coverage well, it will change how people feel about him.
  3. There's a significant concern about Biden's age and health, with many questioning whether he can effectively lead. This has led to worries about who truly influences his decisions and whether his close circle is providing honest advice.
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You Can't Vote For Dumb

Points And Figures • 1039 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Government Campaigns Political Commentary
  1. The author believes Kamala Harris lacks intelligence and creativity in her political actions. They think her methods are often emotional rather than based on facts.
  2. They argue that her background in politics has made her a typical party follower rather than an original thinker. They feel this is a problem for representation.
  3. The author feels that voting for someone they perceive as 'stupid' is dangerous, especially in important matters like foreign policy and economics. They think strong leadership requires intellect.

Trump vs Kamala: Who's winning online?

Taylor Lorenz's Newsletter • 2179 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Social media Political strategy Public Opinion
  1. Trump is getting a lot more social media attention compared to Kamala, with nearly double the mentions. This shows he has a strong online presence.
  2. Most social media talks about the candidates are negative, but older voters seem to have a more positive view of Kamala. Younger people prefer Trump.
  3. Trump's approach focuses on longer content like podcasts, which helps him connect better with his audience. Kamala's shorter, snappy content may not build the same strong relationships.

THB 2024 Election Special

The Honest Broker Newsletter • 569 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political Analysis Public Opinion Campaigns
  1. Substack is offering some engaged free subscribers a chance to try paid subscriptions at no cost, which is a great opportunity for users.
  2. The creator is exploring new ways to engage with followers through Substack Notes and other platforms amidst changes in social media.
  3. There are discussions and predictions about the upcoming U.S. election, encouraging community interaction and insights from non-U.S. subscribers as well.

Trump, Dumb, and Dumber

Diane Francis • 1059 implied HN points • 25 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Campaigns Political Commentary Public Opinion
  1. Trump allegedly paid hush money to cover up affairs, but it didn't work. The details became public anyway.
  2. Many believe Trump shows poor judgment and impulse control, which raises doubts about his ability to lead effectively.
  3. There’s a chance he may not be the Republican nominee for the upcoming presidential election because of the ongoing issues.

SBSQ #14: Election Day lightning round!

Silver Bulletin • 507 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polls Forecasting Campaigns Political theory
  1. Election Day tends to be calm since there’s not much to do until results come in. It's a good time to reflect instead of focusing too much on exit polls.
  2. Different prediction models, like FiveThirtyEight's, can have varying odds for candidates which might not reflect the true situation. It's important to pay attention to both polls and the underlying fundamentals.
  3. There are concerns that too many prediction models can lead pollsters to stick closely to common predictions, impacting the variety of polling results we see.

Polls vs Early Voting: the real data is bullish for Trump

The Dossier • 391 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Voting Campaigns Media
  1. Polls can be misleading and don't always reflect the true situation. What's more important is the actual voter turnout.
  2. Republican voters are showing strong motivation and participation in early voting. This could be a good sign for Trump's campaign.
  3. The media often pushes narratives that may not align with the reality of voter enthusiasm. It's key to focus on the numbers rather than just headlines.

Scrip, Apokálypsis, Ho'oponopono & High Strangeness

Dr. Pippa's Pen & Podcast • 53 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Government Policies Political theory
  1. The shift in power from Biden to Trump has significant implications, including a new way of fundraising through cryptocurrencies that could change political contributions.
  2. Trump's new currency strategy could allow him more control over funding without relying solely on Congress, as he builds his own financial resources.
  3. There is growing unrest among military operatives regarding secrecy around Unidentified Aerial Phenomena, indicating a possible shift in how classified information is managed and revealed.

In which insane German delusions about the near-certainty of a Harris presidency are dashed on the rocks of Trump's decisive victory

eugyppius: a plague chronicle • 322 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Media Political Analysis Campaigns Public Opinion
  1. Donald Trump won the election by a large margin, securing more votes and sweeping key states. This shows a significant shift in voter support compared to previous elections.
  2. Media coverage leading up to the election was heavily biased and failed to accurately predict the outcome. Many people were misled by false narratives about the competitiveness of the race.
  3. The reaction from German officials and media after the election reveals their misunderstanding of American politics. They underestimated Trump's chances and overestimated Harris's appeal.

Nyhetsbrev steigan.no 22.02.2025

steigan.no • 6 implied HN points • 22 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Policies Campaigns Legislation
  1. Kash Patel is now the new FBI director and plans to change how the FBI operates, focusing on combating serious crime across the country.
  2. A recent study indicated that mRNA vaccines can pass through the placenta and affect fetal development, raising concerns about their long-term effects.
  3. There is a call for Norway and its allies to accept new global realities, particularly regarding their strategies and relations with Russia amidst ongoing tensions.

Safe Bets, Lotto Tickets, and Vibes

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1097 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political Analysis Prediction Markets Betting
  1. Prediction markets help people place bets on political outcomes, including election results. It's a way to predict what might happen based on the money people are willing to gamble.
  2. There are different types of bets: safe bets on likely outcomes, long-shot bets on unlikely events, and those based on gut feelings or 'vibes.' Each type can be a strategy for making money in these markets.
  3. Overall, despite the uncertainty in politics, the belief is that democracy will continue to function and elections will still be certified. Even in the face of chaos, the systems in place are expected to hold.

Team Technocrat vs. Team Woke

In My Tribe • 774 implied HN points • 09 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Parties Voters Campaigns Political theory
  1. The Democratic Party has two main groups: Team Technocrat and Team Woke. Both seem to be trying to gain influence after the recent election.
  2. The outcome of the election is being interpreted differently, and it's not a clear win or loss for either faction. Events leading up to the 2028 election could change everything.
  3. Swing voters might not see certain candidates, like Kamala Harris, as legitimate. They tend to prefer candidates who seem more credible and have campaigned actively.

CROSSPOST: 23 Economics Nobel Prize Winners for Kamala Harris

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 238 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Economics Public Policy Political theory Campaigns
  1. Many Nobel Prize winners in economics believe Kamala Harris would be better for the economy than Donald Trump. They think her ideas will strengthen the middle class and promote fairness.
  2. Harris's economic agenda focuses on enhancing competition and creating job opportunities. These policies are seen as more beneficial for the country's overall economic health.
  3. In contrast, Trump's policies are viewed as harmful, leading to higher prices and greater inequality. Experts worry that his actions could jeopardize essential economic stability.

Trump. Again. The Question Is Why?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2068 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Parties Leadership Public Opinion Campaigns
  1. Donald Trump remains a prominent figure in the political landscape, commanding attention from both supporters and critics.
  2. Trump has been successful in recent Republican caucus victories and is gaining significant support within the party.
  3. He is currently polling well and leads President Biden in various public opinion surveys.

entitled guilt as a campaign strategy

bad cattitude • 245 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns Messaging Public Opinion Political strategy Political Advertising
  1. Campaigns that rely on guilt and fear aren't working well. People don't respond positively to being shamed into voting.
  2. Instead of presenting a hopeful message, some candidates are using negative tactics that feel patronizing and desperate. This approach can push potential supporters away.
  3. Focusing on humor and relatable moments in a campaign is important. Candidates who can connect with audiences are more likely to win support.

Why You Should Ignore All the Polls

The Ruffian • 227 implied HN points • 02 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Polling Campaigns Political Analysis Voter Behavior
  1. Polls don't really tell you what you need to know about elections. They can be misleading and don't account for many factors.
  2. When you feel tempted to constantly check election updates, try doing something else instead. Activities like walking or listening to music can make you feel better.
  3. No matter how informed you think you are, you can't predict the outcome of elections. It's better to accept uncertainty than stress about it.

Why I won't vote for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris in the 2024 election

Michael Tracey • 201 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Campaigns Political parties Foreign Policy
  1. The author believes that both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are not suitable candidates for president in 2024. They feel detached from the idea of voting for major party candidates they don't support.
  2. There is frustration with how media and commentators have not critically engaged with Trump's record while he campaigns again. The author thinks most critiques focus on dramatic or superficial issues rather than serious policy analysis.
  3. The author values foreign policy highly when deciding how to vote, feeling that the U.S.'s global influence means leadership choices need to be carefully considered for their international impact.

Project Fear Is Not Enough

The Weekly Dish • 160 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Campaigns Political strategy Voting behavior
  1. Kamala Harris is struggling in her political campaign and isn't gaining much support. It's important for candidates to connect with voters and show strong leadership.
  2. Fear tactics alone won't win elections; candidates need to have clear and positive messages. Engaging people with hope is often more effective than just warning them about the opposition.
  3. A candidate's popularity can be influenced by their ability to communicate and inspire. Good communication skills and a relatable presence make a big difference in how voters perceive them.

'The Most Disgraceful Campaign in American History'

Nonzero Newsletter • 225 implied HN points • 08 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political History Campaigns Media influence Public Discourse
  1. The time machine feature looks back at past conversations to provide insight into American culture and politics. It's a fun way to connect the past with today's issues.
  2. The discussion highlights how ideas of what is 'disgraceful' in politics have changed over time. What was seen as bad behavior in the past might not seem as shocking now.
  3. McCain's 2008 campaign faced backlash for misleading ads, showing how important honesty is in politics. The criticism he faced then is part of why we expect more transparency from politicians today.

sunday memepool: taking stock

bad cattitude • 108 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political Analysis Public Opinion Campaigns Government
  1. The recent elections have led to shifts in political power. This shows that people's opinions and needs can change over time.
  2. Celebrating election outcomes is important, but it's also crucial to start thinking about what comes next. The real work often begins after the celebrations are over.
  3. Staying aware of the changes and the reasons behind them can help people engage better in future political discussions and decisions. It's a good chance to reflect and plan ahead.

Six Ways Being a Cardplayer Helps me Analyze Politics

Matt’s Five Points • 199 implied HN points • 21 May 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Analysis Political strategy Campaigns Legislative Process
  1. Understanding the rules of the game is key in both cards and politics. Just like in a card game, knowing the rules of political systems helps you make better decisions and predictions.
  2. Political players have different goals, just like card players. It's important to recognize that not everyone is trying to win; some are in it for fun or other reasons.
  3. Many times, outcomes in politics and card games are influenced by chance. Good players focus on making smart decisions rather than stressing about random events outside their control.

DeSantis Disaster: Why a wannabe dictator's campaign fails

georgelakoff • 1081 implied HN points • 22 Jul 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns Republican party Presidential campaign
  1. DeSantis failed by trying to run against Trump and betraying him, violating a key rule in Republican politics.
  2. In the authoritarian cult of Trump's Republican party, loyalty to the leader is paramount, and attempting to displace him is a major violation.
  3. DeSantis' attempt to outdo Trump with harsh policies backfired, alienating swing voters and positioning him as worse than Trump in the eyes of some.

An Open Letter To Open-Minded Harris Voters

Zero HP Lovecraft • 120 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political Bias Campaigns Public Opinion
  1. Polling can be biased and often underestimate supporters of certain candidates. Many polls showed high Democratic enthusiasm that didn't match the voting results.
  2. There is a belief that media and academic views can be heavily influenced by biases, especially when they align with certain political perspectives. This can affect how information is presented to the public.
  3. Some people feel excluded or attacked for their identity in today's conversation about race and gender. This sentiment can create a divide and affect the way political campaigns relate to different groups.

The great RFK Jr. bamboozle of 2024: a brief history

Michael Tracey • 164 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Campaigns Public Opinion Political History
  1. RFK Jr. initially launched an Independent campaign to challenge the two-party system, gaining significant public support. But he later endorsed Trump, which confused many supporters who thought he was against that very system.
  2. His withdrawal from the race and endorsement of Trump hurt the minor parties that had backed him, with some feeling they had been misled. They believed he would empower Third Parties, but his actions ended up weakening them.
  3. Despite claiming to stand against the political establishment, RFK Jr.'s actions seemed to reinforce the existing power dynamics instead. Many critics feel he used his famous name for personal gain rather than genuine political change.

Postmortem 2024

Skeptic • 95 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Policy Analysis Political Commentary Political strategy
  1. The 2024 election saw Trump winning decisively, and it's important to note that it wasn't just about Harris losing, but Trump running a strong campaign.
  2. Harris should have better addressed key issues like crime, economics, and immigration and connected more with voters by engaging in important discussions on platforms like podcasts.
  3. Looking ahead, while many may feel upset about the results, it's crucial to remain optimistic about the future and know that political power can shift back to Democrats in upcoming elections.

Is Eric Adams Free?

Political Currents by Ross Barkan • 12 implied HN points • 31 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Corruption Political strategy Campaigns Governance
  1. Eric Adams, the mayor of New York City, has faced federal corruption charges and is struggling with low approval ratings. Many believe he might be the first mayor in thirty years to lose a re-election bid.
  2. Donald Trump might help Adams by influencing the Justice Department to drop the corruption charges. This could allow Adams to run again in the Democratic primary without the burden of legal troubles.
  3. Andrew Cuomo, the former governor, could be a tough challenger for Adams if he decides to run for mayor. Adams' chances might improve if he avoids criminal charges and gains more support from voters.