The hottest Geopolitics Substack posts right now

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Western democracies are actually pretty good at war

Noahpinion • 21706 implied HN points • 19 Jun 25
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Western democracies can actually be very effective in wars, often outperforming autocracies when they choose to engage. This challenges the common belief that autocratic regimes are inherently stronger in military situations.
  2. Democracies tend to be more careful about the wars they fight, often only choosing battles when they have a good chance of winning, which contributes to their higher success rates. Their economy and technological advantages also play a significant role.
  3. While democracies have historically had support from the U.S., the rise of China as a strong autocracy poses new challenges. If conflict arises, democracies might not have the same military or technological edge they used to rely on.

The Players on the Eve of Destruction

Noahpinion • 50647 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. War is a real and serious threat in today's world, especially with rising tensions between powerful nations. People often don't understand the huge impact it can have on everyday lives.
  2. Taiwan is an interesting example of how a place can seem peaceful and happy even when there's a looming danger. The people go on with their lives, not fully feeling the weight of possible conflict.
  3. Humanity can see into the future, which is a curse because it brings anxiety. But this awareness can also help prepare for tough times ahead, making it important to take action rather than just waiting.

Top Link 1010 Have US tariffs peaked? Is this the final crypto winter? Fei Xiaotong and the fate of Chinese sociology & Troeltsch and the crisis of historicism.

Chartbook • 515 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. US tariffs may have peaked, prompting questions about where trade policy and international economic relations go next.
  2. The crypto market is in a prolonged 'winter' and observers are debating whether this downturn is final or will give way to further boom-and-bust cycles.
  3. Discussions about Fei Xiaotong and Troeltsch reflect a wider re-evaluation of Chinese sociology and historicist approaches in intellectual history.

Ukraine's Audacity

Diane Francis • 1338 implied HN points • 12 Aug 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Ukraine has launched a bold military operation by invading Russia with support from Western countries. Their goal was to show off their military strength and lower Russian morale.
  2. During the invasion, the Ukrainian army faced minimal resistance, with Russian guards fleeing and leaving their posts. This success showcased Ukraine's effective tactics.
  3. The U.S. responded positively to Ukraine's actions, reinforcing its support with additional military aid and confirming that this invasion wasn't seen as an escalation of the conflict.

The World of Graphite

Intercalation Station • 139 implied HN points • 16 Oct 24
🕹 Technology Geopolitics
  1. Graphite is a key material for batteries, especially in electric vehicles, and there's been a shift from natural to synthetic graphite due to supply risks.
  2. China dominates the graphite supply, which creates concerns about over-reliance and geopolitical tensions, leading to increased global interest in local production.
  3. Synthetic graphite can be made from waste materials and has the potential to reduce environmental impacts if produced using renewable energy sources.
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Weekend Update #174: Ukraine Retaking Territory And Starlink

Phillips’s Newsletter • 284 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Ukrainian forces made measurable territorial gains in February (roughly 165 sq km) by using small, well-trained units, precise intelligence, and tight battlefield communications to secure contested "greyzone" areas.
  2. A reported cut-off of Russian access to Starlink degraded Russian communications and likely helped Ukrainian operations, but it also exposes the danger of relying on privately controlled satellite services and pushes Ukraine to develop backup systems.
  3. Ukraine’s FP-5 Flamingo long-range strike showed improved accuracy and real damage to a Russian missile workshop, offering promise for a strategic strike campaign if production can be scaled, while European leaders are distancing themselves from US/Israeli strikes on Iran and signaling a more independent diplomatic stance that could matter politically for Ukraine.

The American Empire is Losing Money in Europe. Will It Abandon Europe?

Glenn’s Substack • 859 implied HN points • 23 Aug 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Europe is struggling because it is not adapting to the new multipolar world. Instead of building ties with other major economies, it is relying heavily on the U.S., which makes it weaker.
  2. Countries around the world are trying to diversify their economic connections to avoid too much dependence on a single superpower. Europe, on the other hand, is falling behind by sticking closely to U.S. interests.
  3. As the U.S. shifts its focus to Asia, Europe risks losing its political and economic relevance. If Europe doesn’t change its approach, it might find itself increasingly sidelined.

How Gripen Philosophy Could Beat the F-35

Erik Explores • 614 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Gripen is built for coordinated, squad-level fighting—its peer-to-peer data sharing and electronic warfare let multiple jets act as a single, flexible unit, while the F-35 focuses on individual stealth and sensor fusion.
  2. Because it’s simpler and cheaper to maintain and produce, Gripen can fly more often, train pilots faster, and stay operational when logistics or supply chains are strained.
  3. Its open, modular electronics, AI-friendly design, and support from long-range sensors like GlobalEye make Gripen easier to upgrade and better suited to adaptive, resource-constrained wars where resilience matters.

The US Empire Needs Men Like Trump

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 1909 implied HN points • 06 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Geopolitics
  1. The US power structure values leaders who will carry out long-term imperial goals, and Trump has proven useful as the "bad cop" who can use overt force when needed.
  2. His recent actions and rhetoric around Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran show a willingness to use direct military intervention and extra-legal tactics to achieve regime change.
  3. Trump has moved from earlier anti-intervention posturing to openly allying with hawkish politicians, signaling continued aggressive foreign policy if he stays in power.

The Real Tyrannical Regime

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 1788 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. The real tyrant is the power that invades other countries, topples governments, starves populations with sanctions, and surrounds the world with military bases, not the nations resisting them.
  2. Political talk about ‘tyrants’ is often hypocritical and shaped by PR — people cheer or condemn interventions depending on who benefits, and propaganda is being used to normalize military action across political bases.
  3. Normalizing quick, low-cost attacks risks repeating past escalations like the Gulf War leading to Iraq, making bigger wars more likely and encouraging more militarized repression at home.

The Imperial Crosshairs Move To Cuba, And Other Notes

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 1620 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. The United States is aggressively reasserting imperial control in Latin America and the Middle East, pressuring countries like Cuba and Venezuela and carrying out military and regime-change actions.
  2. Political promises to fight the deep state have given way to advancing neocon and intelligence-agency agendas, creating chaos that helps authoritarian politics at home.
  3. There is stark media and policy bias: Palestinian civilian deaths are downplayed while calls for regime change (e.g., Iran) would expand US imperial power, so opposing intervention and defending the right to criticize Israel are framed as both moral and civil-rights imperatives.

War on Iran: The Information Gap

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 160 implied HN points • 08 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Commercial satellite firms are delaying public images over Israel and the Gulf, so independent observers lack real-time visual evidence of damage there while images of Iran remain available.
  2. Other reports claim heavy damage to U.S. bases and Israeli infrastructure, meaning repairs could take years and may weaken future U.S. presence in the region.
  3. Iran looks determined to keep fighting and seems unlikely to fold, and because Israel is small even a low rate of successful strikes can cause outsized damage while Iran’s size gives it greater staying power.

Where is the off ramp for this war?

Taipology • 74 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Missile interceptors are expensive and often miss, so the US is burning through costly stockpiles that are hard to replenish because key parts like semiconductors and rare earths mostly come from China.
  2. Iran’s missile forces are mostly mobile and spread out, which encourages a 'use it or lose it' response and means strikes are hitting regional targets while fueling widespread Shia anger after the Ayatollah’s killing.
  3. That dynamic leaves the US with few good options: either pull back without achieving regime change or stay and risk a costly quagmire, while a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices much higher and make the situation worse.

Was the world of the 1990s better than today’s?

Global Inequality and More 3.0 • 1600 implied HN points • 03 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. The 1990s' faith in financialization, free markets, and privatization was largely wrong and led to crises, government bailouts for the powerful, and growing inequality.
  2. Elites often professed support for multiethnic societies while backing breakups and closing borders, exposing a deep hypocrisy about migration and diversity.
  3. The period enforced intellectual conformity where convenient ideas dominated, and although today’s world has serious problems, public debate is now more open and less ideologically sterile.

Get ready for the Ursulawave

Wrong Side of History • 584 implied HN points • 03 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. The European project is built on openness and free movement, which makes a conservative, nationalist united Europe hard to sustain and lets migrants move freely to the continent's most attractive welfare states.
  2. The new EU–India mobility deal will create legal routes that are likely to bring many low and semi-skilled workers to Europe, which can reduce job opportunities for local young people and fuel a political backlash that benefits the radical right.
  3. Migration acts as a social safety valve for sending countries like India, and European leaders continue to push open migration policies for ideological reasons despite the clear political and social risks.

Putin's Sudan

Diane Francis • 899 implied HN points • 19 Aug 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Sudan is currently experiencing a brutal civil war that has caused many civilian deaths and destruction, especially in its capital, Khartoum.
  2. Media attention has mostly focused on other conflicts, like the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, which means Sudan's crisis is often overlooked.
  3. Russia, under Putin, is involved in Sudan by providing mercenaries and exploiting its resources, worsening the humanitarian situation.

China's Arctic Leverage

ChinaTalk • 1037 implied HN points • 20 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Russia’s ability to sustain and modernize its icebreaker fleet and build small modular reactors is weakening due to sanctions, supply-chain gaps, labor and financing problems, threatening year‑round operations on the Northern Sea Route.
  2. China is steadily expanding its polar capabilities—building icebreakers, deploying SMRs, and offering finance and technology—so it can gain Arctic experience and influence through joint projects.
  3. Growing technical and financial cooperation will likely create a quiet dependency where Russia retains formal control but relies on Chinese capacity, shifting leverage toward China and undermining the idea that Beijing will act as a counterweight to Moscow.

Turkey's Neutrality

Diane Francis • 999 implied HN points • 15 Aug 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Turkey is a growing economy that plays an important role in world politics. It has good relations with many countries, even those that usually clash.
  2. The Turkish president is a skilled leader who knows how to handle complex international issues. His style of governance raises some concerns, but he is not seen as a dictator.
  3. Turkey's neutrality in global conflicts helps create stability. It balances relationships with major powers like the West, Russia, and China.

Top Links 1007 US profits. Global public spending. The new nuclear arms race & cultivating your "legitimate strangeness".

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 08 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. US corporate profits are a central economic story, with implications for markets, investment and inequality.
  2. Global public spending is highlighted as a key force shaping national and international economic outcomes through government budgets and policies.
  3. The newsletter warns of a renewed nuclear arms race as a major geopolitical risk and also urges embracing “legitimate strangeness,” valuing unconventional ideas and identities.

Russia and China: From "Marriage of Convenience" to Strategic Partnership

Glenn’s Substack • 559 implied HN points • 30 Aug 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Russia has shifted its focus from the West to the East, forming a closer relationship with China after feeling isolated by the West. This change is part of a broader strategy to create a new economic landscape in Eurasia.
  2. China is rising as a major global player and has shown it can challenge US economic leadership. It has invested heavily in infrastructure and is leading efforts for a new financial architecture.
  3. The partnership between Russia and China is more than just a temporary alliance against the US. Both countries recognize they can benefit from working together to shape a new international economic system that includes other nations.

The 1979 Playbook

European Straits • 23 implied HN points • 08 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. A late-cycle shock in the Middle East is hitting an already fragile economy, driving oil above $90 and adding fresh inflationary pressure while jobs and growth soften.
  2. We’re in the maturity phase of the tech-led paradigm, where slowing productivity, high public debt, and institutional decay mean shocks are amplified and monetary options are constrained.
  3. The United States has a history of misreading Iran, and recent strikes appear driven more by domestic politics than clear strategy; asymmetric warfare economically favors Iran and the crisis could either hasten a new global order or merely prolong the old one.

Following U.S. coup in Venezuela, the CIA's former station chief is advertising support for corporate exploitation of the country's oil

All-Source Intelligence Fusion • 1668 implied HN points • 03 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. A former CIA Venezuela chief now runs a lobbying firm that is promoting work to rebuild and profit from Venezuela's energy sector alongside ex-diplomats and private companies.
  2. After a US special forces raid that kidnapped Nicolás Maduro, the US administration said it would oversee the country temporarily and invited large American oil firms to come in and rebuild and extract profit.
  3. Those actions and plans have raised legal and ethical concerns and drawn international condemnation, while the US government points to drug-trafficking allegations and has used sanctions and allied NGOs to justify its moves.

Top Link 1006 US labour market cooling. The 2nd Mexican-American war. Monsters of justice and "Bonnie be good".

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 07 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. The US labor market is cooling as corporations trim payrolls, suggesting slower hiring and rising economic risk.
  2. There are growing concerns about escalating tensions between the United States and Mexico, framed starkly as a potential “second Mexican-American war.”
  3. Debates about justice and public morality are foregrounded, using images like “monsters of justice” and “Bonnie be good” to question how society judges behavior.

Israel (and America) are fighting a new kind of war in Iran

Unreported Truths • 40 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Israel and the U.S. are carrying out a deliberate campaign to kill or decapitate Iran’s military and intelligence leadership using signals intelligence, spying, airpower, and precision strikes.
  2. This is a new, radical kind of warfare — aimed at disabling a country’s command structure from the top while trying to avoid mass civilian casualties, an approach enabled by modern technology.
  3. Whether it will work is unclear: success depends on stopping Iran from plugging leaks and on whether its leaders will keep risking death rather than surrendering, and Iran can still wield leverage through things like closing the Strait of Hormuz.

A War Foretold

Taipology • 74 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. The US, with Israel playing a leading role, appears to be pursuing a long-planned regime-change campaign against Iran that may rely on regional proxies rather than large numbers of American ground troops.
  2. Iran has struck back effectively with missiles, making the fight likely to be prolonged and costly; putting Tehran on "death ground" guarantees fierce resistance and raises the risk of a quagmire for the US.
  3. The strategic benefits for the United States are unclear, and the conflict may actually help China geopolitically because China’s oil supply is diversified and it can leverage other economic levers rather than being contained by a war in the Middle East.

NATO invades Russia?

Glenn’s Substack • 739 implied HN points • 22 Aug 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. NATO's involvement in the war may blur the lines between a proxy war and direct conflict, raising concerns about escalation.
  2. Russia has been cautious in its response to NATO actions, as retaliating could lead to a larger global conflict.
  3. The recent invasion of Kursk by Ukraine and NATO has led to significant Ukrainian casualties and weakened defensive positions, with NATO's role now more apparent.

A Claude of the Seven Kingdoms

Some Unpleasant Arithmetic • 43 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. The label 'technofeudalism' is misleading — the changes described are still capitalist in form, but the real danger is tech elites trying to fuse their economic power with state power in ways that mirror fascist dynamics.
  2. Big tech is increasingly entangled with government and civil society, creating a personalist, court-like politics where backchannels and corporate influence weaken democratic institutions and the public sphere.
  3. Rising inequality, economic dislocation, and a zero-sum 'peasant' mindset make populations vulnerable to authoritarian appeals, so the political answer needs stronger democratic protections, redistribution, and accountable regulation.

Point of No Return in Middle East & Ukraine

Glenn’s Substack • 519 implied HN points • 30 Aug 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Both Israel and Ukraine are in conflicts they can't win and are escalating their actions instead of seeking peace. This makes the situation more dangerous.
  2. The countries are trying to involve the US more deeply in their wars, hoping that American support will change their fortunes.
  3. There is a lack of serious discussions or diplomatic efforts to address the escalating tensions, which could lead to a wider conflict.

Top Links 1005 India's geopolitical centrality. Pomegranates from Afghanistan. Old Mexico & "The Earth's Precariousness".

Chartbook • 486 implied HN points • 06 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. India is becoming geopolitically central and is shaping global politics and trade in new ways.
  2. Energy ties between Russia, India, and the UAE are realigning into a new geometry that is shifting power and supply relationships.
  3. Pieces like Afghan pomegranates and reflections on old Mexico point to local economic and cultural stories that also highlight wider concerns about the Earth's environmental precariousness.

Pirates of the Anthropocene

The Crucial Years • 2600 implied HN points • 11 Dec 25
🌞 Climate & Environment Geopolitics
  1. Oil still shapes geopolitics and can drive coercive, even pirate-like actions as states treat fossil fuels as concentrated sources of power and wealth.
  2. Moving to solar and wind would decentralize energy and make conflicts over resource locations far less likely, so speeding the clean-energy transition also undermines authoritarian, resource-driven power.
  3. The energy transition is making progress—court wins for offshore wind, battery recycling advances, and China's lead—but it faces big obstacles from political rollbacks, EPA denial of climate science, booming energy-hungry datacenters, and worsening extreme weather.

Sovereignty for sale

Comment is Freed • 126 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. A handful of tech companies now control critical infrastructure like satellites and AI and can directly influence military and political outcomes by granting or denying access.
  2. Relying on foreign tech firms creates a real sovereignty risk and single points of failure that many countries can’t easily control or compel to act in their national interest.
  3. Governments are waking up to the problem and must pursue 'tech sovereignty' through regulation, supplier diversification, and domestic capability building, because countries like the UK are particularly exposed.

Top Links 999 Mississippi rice in trouble. The enshittification of American power. PCF HQ & the making of the Indian constitution.

Chartbook • 615 implied HN points • 31 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Mississippi and other American rice farmers are in serious trouble, with crop losses and economic strain threatening rural livelihoods. This could have wider impacts on food supply and local economies.
  2. U.S. power is undergoing an 'enshittification' where its effectiveness and legitimacy are eroding because of internal dysfunction and poor policy choices. That weakening makes American global influence less reliable.
  3. The PCF headquarters played a significant role in the making of the Indian constitution, showing how political organizations shaped the founding legal framework. Understanding that role helps explain key constitutional choices.

"Kursk changed the war"

Glenn’s Substack • 539 implied HN points • 29 Aug 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. The situation is tense between NATO and Russia, with both sides pretending not to be in a direct conflict. This makes it seem like a war is already taking place without formal recognition.
  2. Recent attacks on Russian territory and nuclear plants are pushing the situation closer to nuclear war. This escalation raises serious concerns about global safety.
  3. The American government's silence on these actions raises questions about their real intentions and strategy in the region. It makes people wonder how they plan to address these conflicts.

What's going to happen to Ukraine now?

Noahpinion • 30412 implied HN points • 08 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Geopolitics
  1. The current situation in Ukraine may lead to a Finland-like scenario, where Ukraine could lose some territory but still maintain its independence and democracy. This would be a strategic victory for Ukraine despite the tactical losses.
  2. Recent shifts in American political support mean that while direct aid from the U.S. might change, Ukraine is still capable of defending itself and building its own military resources. They are determined to fight against the invasion.
  3. Negotiations with Russia might focus on reaching a peace deal that allows for ongoing Ukrainian independence, despite the narrative that favors Russia. A balance may be struck where both sides can find a way to end the conflict without total defeat.

The Iranian Regime Is Betting on American Casualties

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 153 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Previous rounds of tit‑for‑tat strikes were carefully choreographed to avoid killing Americans, often causing little damage or no casualties.
  2. After U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader and other senior figures, Iran launched wide retaliatory attacks using ballistic missiles and drones across the region.
  3. Unlike earlier exchanges, the regime now appears to be risking a major escalation and is effectively betting on causing American casualties to press its advantage.

Top Links 1001 Copper goes crazy. Cuba is running out of oil. Mehrling on Rogoff & the thaw on Kinmen island.

Chartbook • 529 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
💰 Finance Geopolitics
  1. Copper prices have exploded this year, reflecting sharp shifts in global commodity markets and putting pressure on industries that need copper.
  2. Cuba is running low on oil, which raises the risk of fuel shortages that could disrupt transportation, power, and daily life.
  3. There’s an active debate between economists like Mehrling and Rogoff, and a diplomatic thaw on Kinmen island hints at easing regional tensions.

Bahrain: Behind the News

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 145 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Bahrain is ruled by the Sunni Al Khalifa family that seized control in the 18th century and has stayed in power with the political and military backing of Britain and the United States.
  2. The government practices sectarian policies that marginalize the indigenous Shia majority—blocking access to housing, jobs, and citizenship—and deliberately naturalizes foreign Sunnis to change the demographics and staff loyal security forces.
  3. Deep corruption and inequality fuel unrest: migrant workers face abuse, Western expats often get better treatment, and protests are met with arrests, torture, and other harsh repression.

China's Rare Earths Chokehold: A Primer

ChinaTalk • 1171 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. China now treats its rare earth dominance as a geopolitical lever and is likely to repeat export controls to extract concessions until U.S. dependence is meaningfully reduced.
  2. Economically viable rare earth deposits are scarce and global production is concentrated in just a few mines, so supply can’t be easily or quickly replaced.
  3. Heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium are both geologically rare and overwhelmingly controlled by China, so fixing the vulnerability will take focused, sustained investment and effort rather than broad, diffuse programs.

German Dysfunction

Diane Francis • 1079 implied HN points • 05 Aug 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. Germany, despite being the richest and largest economy in Europe, has been slow to take charge in defending against Russian aggression.
  2. Recent military budget cuts indicate a lack of commitment to support Ukraine effectively, raising concerns about Germany's leadership role in Europe.
  3. Historical factors like post-war guilt and strong business ties to Russia influence Germany's cautious stance towards military involvement.

The Suicidal Folly of a War with Iran [VIDEO]

The Chris Hedges Report • 178 implied HN points • 24 Feb 26
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics
  1. A U.S. attack on Iran would be a catastrophic mistake driven by incompetent leadership and could spark a wider, prolonged regional war.
  2. Demanding that Iran dismantle its nuclear and missile programs in exchange for no new sanctions is unrealistic and won’t convince Tehran to disarm.
  3. Iran’s size, alliances, and ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and strike regional targets mean such a war would cause heavy casualties, soaring oil prices, and major global economic damage.