The hottest Geopolitics Substack posts right now

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Repost: Armed conflict investor survival guide

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 13 Jun 25
💰 Finance Investing Market Analysis Geopolitics Economic Trends Risk management
  1. Don't panic during geopolitical crises. Most of these events don't affect the stock market in the long run, so it's usually better to stay calm and not sell off shares quickly.
  2. Evaluate the situation carefully by asking key questions about the impact on infrastructure, inflation, and interest rates before making any investment decisions.
  3. In many cases, the smart move is to buy risky assets when they dip, especially if there’s no long-term effect on the economy. Short-term panic selling can create good buying opportunities.

Weekend Update #103: North Korea shows itself to be a Great Ally

Phillips’s Newsletter • 177 implied HN points • 20 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Military Strategy International relations Security Geopolitics
  1. North Korean combat troops may soon join Russia in the Ukraine war, which could change the dynamics on the battlefield. Ukraine's leaders believe over 10,000 troops are being prepared to fight.
  2. Despite claims of rapid Russian advances, the actual progress on the ground has been minimal, raising concerns about the strategy of limiting support for Ukraine. The slow pace of advances suggests a grinding war continues.
  3. President Zelensky has proposed a five-point victory strategy for Ukraine, but there is little support from Western allies, particularly the US, making the situation challenging for Ukraine as it seeks increased military aid.

What Europe Can do in a Worst-Case Scenario

Phillips’s Newsletter • 83 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Conflict Studies Diplomacy
  1. European countries need to carefully consider their actions in the ongoing Ukraine war. Their support is crucial and impacts the situation significantly.
  2. The Trump administration's plans for Ukraine lack solid security guarantees. This may put European states in a tough spot, as they might have to back plans that don't benefit them or Ukraine.
  3. Many of Trump's proposed peace plans for Ukraine have been evident for a while. Understanding these plans early can help Europe prepare for possible outcomes.
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"Damn the Jews!"

Kevin’s Newsletter • 511 implied HN points • 01 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Conflicts Public Opinion Geopolitics International relations Humanitarian Issues
  1. The Houthi movement in Yemen is popular for opposing Israeli actions in Gaza and has support across West Asia and North Africa.
  2. US public opinion is divided on Middle East policy, with many Americans favoring a ceasefire in Gaza and opposing further Middle East wars.
  3. The Houthi slogan, particularly the phrase 'a curse upon the Jews,' may pose a PR problem in the US and alternative translations are being considered.

Ruble, Rubble, Death Spiral

Diane Francis • 999 implied HN points • 24 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Conflict Economics Military Strategy Geopolitics
  1. Russia is facing a financial crisis due to a sharp drop in oil prices and reduced exports. This has made it difficult for them to fund their military operations and keep the economy stable.
  2. Ukraine is actively targeting Russian shipping routes to disrupt their oil exports. This strategy not only impacts Russia's income but also serves as a psychological tactic against the Russian public.
  3. With many skilled workers leaving Russia and international isolation tightening, the country's currency is weakening. This causes increasing economic pressure on the government, making it harder for them to maintain control.

我最新专栏的中文翻译： 台湾的选举很重要，但其重要性并不像国际媒体所写的那样简单；悲哀的是，台湾的未来不是由台湾人民决定的，而是由中国和美国决定的。

Wang Xiangwei's Thought of the Day on China • 569 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Taiwan China U.S. Elections Geopolitics
  1. Taiwan's election is significant but its future is influenced by China and the US, not just the Taiwanese people.
  2. The outcome of the election may lead to challenges with the opposition party controlling the legislature.
  3. The international media may speculate, but it's ultimately up to Beijing and Washington to determine the future of Taiwan.

Wang Yi at Munich Security Conference

Pekingnology • 132 implied HN points • 15 Feb 25
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Diplomacy Global Governance Multilateralism
  1. The world is becoming multipolar, meaning many countries will have more equal power instead of just a few dominating. This is a positive change that can lead to more fairness among nations.
  2. It's essential to follow international laws and treat all countries equally, regardless of their power. Respecting each other's sovereignty helps maintain peace and stability.
  3. Cooperation, openness, and working together are key to solving global problems. Countries should not isolate themselves but instead collaborate for a better future.

US blocks peace in Gaza, supporting Israel's genocidal war on civilians

Geopolitical Economy Report • 916 implied HN points • 23 Oct 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics War Human Rights US Foreign Policy International Organizations
  1. The US has blocked peace efforts in Gaza and supported Israel's military actions despite widespread condemnation by experts and human rights organizations.
  2. Israel's illegal blockade of Gaza has caused devastation and humanitarian crisis, leading to international calls for action to end the blockade.
  3. Israel's military attacks in Gaza have resulted in the deaths of thousands of Palestinian civilians, including a high percentage of children and women, raising concerns of genocidal intentions.

The Russian Draft Dodgers Who Fled to Paradise

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 366 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
🌐 International Conflict Immigration Culture Travel Geopolitics
  1. Many Russians are escaping to places like Bali to avoid military drafts and the war. They enjoy a cheaper lifestyle and beautiful surroundings.
  2. Despite their new paradise, some locals in Bali are frustrated with Russian tourists due to bad behavior, which has them on edge.
  3. Not all Russians are focusing on leisure; some, like influencers, share their experiences and concerns about the changing community.

Most important stories of 2023: Gaza, Ukraine, China, BRICS, dedollarization, bank crises, inflation

Geopolitical Economy Report • 617 implied HN points • 31 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Economics Corruption
  1. The most important stories of 2023 included Gaza and Ukraine wars, US-China tensions, BRICS expansion, de-dollarization movement, inflation crisis, and bank collapses.
  2. Countries worldwide are making efforts to move away from the US dollar to challenge its dominance in global trade and geopolitical influence.
  3. US involvement in geopolitical events such as tensions with China, coup plots in Peru, and Mexico's stance on US relations continue to shape international dynamics and relations.

Top Links 580 How Bejing took over in Hong Kong. The dark tanker fleet off Malaysia. Potato collusion & freeing hermit crabs from plastic.

Chartbook • 314 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Political Economy Regional conflicts Governance
  1. Beijing's influence in Hong Kong has grown significantly, leading to a shift in control over its financial hub. This change impacts how the West interacts with Hong Kong's economy.
  2. There are dark tanker fleets off Malaysia, which implies issues related to shipping and potentially illegal activities. It raises questions about maritime security and trade.
  3. Interesting stories include 'potato collusion' and efforts to free hermit crabs from plastic, highlighting different aspects of culture and environmental issues. These topics show how diverse and quirky news can be.

A Dying Françafrique?

An Africanist Perspective • 949 implied HN points • 22 Feb 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Foreign influence Power Dynamics
  1. France's influence in its former African colonies is declining significantly, with protests against the CFA currency and reminders of colonial history weakening French ties.
  2. France is no longer the dominant power in francophone Africa, as China has become the largest trade partner and countries like Central African Republic and Mali are forging closer security ties with Russia.
  3. The erosion of economic dependency, the rise of new major power competitors, and the decline in voting similarity between France and its African colonies are key factors in the declining French influence in the region.

Yes, America should absolutely annex Greenland

The Dossier • 276 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Geopolitics National Security Foreign Relations Historical context
  1. Greenland is very valuable because it has a lot of natural resources and is important for national security. If another country like China controls it, it could be bad for the U.S.
  2. The idea of annexing Greenland is similar to how the U.S. has expanded in the past, like with the Louisiana Purchase and Alaska. It could shape the future of the country.
  3. Negotiating for Greenland could be a major focus for the new president, and it might cement his legacy in a significant way, just like past leaders who made big territorial changes.

Ukraine: Stalemate or Checkmate

Diane Francis • 779 implied HN points • 13 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics Military Geopolitics International relations Conflict Security
  1. The war in Ukraine is currently stuck in a stalemate, and new technology from the West is needed to change that. Many believe Ukraine is losing, but they've actually done significant damage to Russia's military.
  2. Ukraine's counteroffensive slowed down due to delays in receiving promised military support from NATO, giving Russia a chance to prepare defenses.
  3. The recent conflict in Israel and Gaza is drawing attention and resources away from Ukraine, which could be part of Putin's strategy to gain an advantage in the war.

Weapons of War

backstory • 436 implied HN points • 19 Oct 24
🌍 World Politics Conflict Human Rights History Geopolitics
  1. Weapons can change hands in unexpected ways, often fueling conflicts between different tribes. For example, in Darfur, weapons once belonging to defeated forces became tools in local disputes over land.
  2. Modern conflicts can see the rise of brutal paramilitary groups that use advanced weaponry against civilians. Groups like the Rapid Support Force in Sudan highlight how everyday weapons can cause immense suffering.
  3. Despite the violence associated with weapons, there’s still hope for humanity and creativity. In the search for puppets, there's a desire to remember that people can create beauty even amidst chaos.

German leftist lawmaker says US soldiers and nukes must leave her country

Geopolitical Economy Report • 916 implied HN points • 01 Apr 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Military Nuclear Weapons Geopolitics
  1. German Left Party lawmaker Sevim Dağdelen called for US soldiers and nuclear weapons to leave Germany, emphasizing the need for a shift in the relationship with the US.
  2. Dağdelen addressed the Bundestag, highlighting concerns about US military bases in Germany operating as extraterritorial areas outside German law, and called for an end to this situation.
  3. She criticized Germany's alignment with US foreign policy decisions, such as supporting NATO actions in Ukraine and failing to condemn the US war of aggression in Iraq, calling for a more independent stance on international issues.

China Capitulates

Diane Francis • 919 implied HN points • 21 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Economic Policy
  1. China's economy is facing serious issues like high unemployment and a faltering currency, partly due to mistakes made by its government. It has realized that battling the U.S. economically is not a winning strategy.
  2. Historically, China has had a troubled relationship with Russia, and its current closeness to Moscow is hurting its ties with the West. To improve its situation, China is now working to distance itself from Russia and fix its foreign policy.
  3. China's leaders are trying to mend relations with the U.S. and other countries to strengthen their economy. This shift shows they understand the importance of cooperation instead of conflict.

The Captagon Edition

Why is this interesting? • 361 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Sanctions Middle East
  1. Syria has turned to producing Captagon, a powerful amphetamine, as a primary way to sustain its economy under heavy sanctions. This drug trade is now crucial for the country's finances.
  2. The Captagon business is very profitable, with low production costs and high selling prices in the Middle East. It brings in billions of dollars each year, making it one of Syria's top exports.
  3. The spread of Captagon is causing serious problems for neighboring countries, like rising addiction rates and increased smuggling. This has led to tensions and stricter border controls in those areas.

The Philippines and the People's Republic at Center Stage with Ray Powell on Midrats

CDR Salamander • 511 implied HN points • 14 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics National Security
  1. Serious developments are happening between The Philippines and the Peoples Republic of China in the Western Pacific.
  2. The Philippines is at the center of the main game in the Western Pacific.
  3. Ray Powell, with his extensive experience in the U.S. Air Force, is discussing the ongoing story between these two nations.

Middle East Morass

Diane Francis • 839 implied HN points • 19 Oct 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Middle East Geopolitics National Security Humanitarian Issues
  1. Joe Biden supported Israel while also stressing the need to avoid mistakes like those made after 9/11. He warned that anger shouldn't lead to prolonged conflict that causes more instability.
  2. The situation in the Middle East is tense, with Iran and other countries expressing aggression towards Israel. Neighboring countries like Jordan and Egypt are worried about an influx of Palestinian refugees due to potential violence.
  3. There is a call for a regional summit to address the ongoing crisis and seek a two-state solution. A collective effort from countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia is seen as crucial for peace.

Arab Regimes and the Betrayal of Palestine (w/ Farah El-Sharif) | The Chris Hedges Report

The Chris Hedges Report • 159 implied HN points • 05 Feb 25
🌍 World Politics Middle East International relations Geopolitics Conflict Studies Human Rights
  1. Many Muslim leaders prioritize their relationships with Western powers over their own people, leading to betrayal, especially regarding Palestine. This often results in silence or complicity in the face of violence against their communities.
  2. The oppression faced by Muslim communities is deeply tied to colonial and imperial actions, which continues to create divisions and reap devastation across the region. The struggle in Gaza highlights the extent of this systemic injustice.
  3. Young Muslims are seeking strong, moral leadership that stands for justice and integrity. They feel disillusioned by leaders who fail to uphold these values, and they are inspired to look to historical figures who embodied true resistance.

NATO Escalation & Propaganda Take Us to War

Glenn’s Substack • 119 implied HN points • 10 Jun 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Military Strategy Propaganda Geopolitics Conflict Studies
  1. NATO's actions are escalating tensions, which could lead to war. It's important to understand how military alliances affect global peace.
  2. Propaganda plays a big role in shaping public opinion about war. People need to be critical of the information they receive.
  3. Dialogue and conversation are crucial to prevent misunderstandings. Clear communication can help avoid unnecessary conflict.

What I Learned about how the U.S. Handled the Run-Up to Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Drezner’s World • 845 implied HN points • 27 Feb 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Intelligence Sanctions National Security Geopolitics
  1. The U.S. believed Putin invaded Ukraine due to perceptions of Russian weakness, not U.S. weakness.
  2. Intelligence was used effectively by the Biden administration to persuade allies and delay Russia's invasion.
  3. Biden officials concluded that pre-emptive sanctions wouldn't have deterred Russia and focused on seizing oligarchs' assets to highlight corruption.

The Prigozhin Puzzle

Diane Francis • 839 implied HN points • 28 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Conflict Russia Military Power Dynamics
  1. Yevgeny Prigozhin's death raises many questions. People are wondering if it was an accident or if he was murdered, and what this means for the future of Russia and the Wagner Group.
  2. The U.S. is starting to train Ukrainian pilots, showing a shift in support for Ukraine against Russia. This could help Ukraine strengthen its military position.
  3. Prigozhin's demise could lead to more instability in Russia. Without his presence, the country might see further divisions among its leaders and military, speeding up its economic problems.

Putin Weaker? Nyet

Diane Francis • 939 implied HN points • 31 Jul 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Conflict Studies Foreign Policy Military Affairs
  1. Wagner, a private military group, is a key part of Putin's strategy and makes a lot of money from warfare and operations around the world.
  2. Putin uses Wagner not just for military actions but also to gain influence and control over resources in African countries, often through illegal means.
  3. Despite issues in Ukraine, Putin remains strong because of his partnerships and the ongoing power of groups like Wagner in the global landscape.

China deepens ties with Venezuela, challenging US 'hegemonic mindset'

Geopolitical Economy Report • 837 implied HN points • 16 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy Foreign Relations International Organizations Geopolitics Global Economy
  1. China and Venezuela have deepened their strategic partnership, challenging the hegemonic mindset and sanctions imposed by the US.
  2. Venezuela has significant economic potential due to its vast oil and gas reserves, attracting interest from China as a reliable energy partner.
  3. The growing alliance between Venezuela and China symbolizes a shift towards South-South cooperation, emphasizing mutual development and multipolarity in today's global landscape.

Beginning of the End for Russia

Diane Francis • 1099 implied HN points • 24 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Military Affairs Political Movements Conflict analysis
  1. Prigozhin, a Russian warlord, openly rebelled against the government, criticizing the war in Ukraine as unjust and driven by greed.
  2. His actions have created unrest within Russia, as some military units are refusing to fight against him, which could weaken Putin's hold on power.
  3. Even if Prigozhin fails in his rebellion, he has already challenged Putin, highlighting discontent and a potential shift in power dynamics within Russia.

Russia will collapse

Diane Francis • 1139 implied HN points • 15 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Nationalism Sovereignty Conflict International relations
  1. Russia is facing a financial crisis and military decline, which could lead to its collapse, similar to the Soviet Union's breakup in 1991.
  2. Various regions in Russia are seeking more independence or outright separation, especially those closer to Europe, making a breakup seem increasingly likely.
  3. If Russia does break apart, it could create numerous new nations, but the West needs to prepare for this possibility and support those regions in establishing their independence.

The case for keeping Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger within ECOWAS

An Africanist Perspective • 356 implied HN points • 24 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Security
  1. Landlocked countries like Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger depend heavily on coastal ECOWAS states for trade, and leaving ECOWAS could lead to economic and logistical challenges that may affect the movement of goods, people, and migrant workers.
  2. There is a historical precedent of military coups in the Sahel region that ECOWAS leaders need to consider when deciding how to handle the situation, including the need for constructive dialogue and understanding the motivations behind the putschists.
  3. The current crisis in ECOWAS highlights the challenges that African regional economic communities and the African Union will face as individual countries are pulled in different directions by global powers, emphasizing the need for regional unity and effective diplomacy.

Climate Policy 2023: Walls, Guns And Prisons

¡Do Not Panic! • 628 implied HN points • 30 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics Climate Policy National Security Geopolitics Global Cooperation Inequality
  1. A lot is being done about climate change, but it's not branded as climate policy.
  2. Climate policy is more about prioritizing industry profits, nationalism, and order maintenance than cutting fossil fuel emissions.
  3. Under capitalist climate policy, there's an incentive to weaken collective structures and increase private provisions for safety.

Putin's Amigo

Diane Francis • 579 implied HN points • 14 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Conflict Diplomacy Military Affairs
  1. Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela, is a strong ally of Putin and has worsened his country's economy despite its oil wealth.
  2. Maduro has allowed Russian companies and military groups to operate in Venezuela, contributing to his regime's security and resource extraction.
  3. Recently, Maduro claimed land in Guyana and threatened invasion, which is seen as a distraction from his own economic issues and has raised tensions in the region.

China's Russia

Diane Francis • 1059 implied HN points • 22 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Conflict Studies Diplomacy
  1. The Russia-Ukraine War may lead to the breakup of Russia, similar to the Soviet-Afghanistan War. Russia is losing allies and financial resources, which could cause some regions to want independence.
  2. China has a significant interest in the resource-rich areas of Russia, especially Manchuria, which used to belong to China. As Russia weakens, China might look to reclaim these lands, boosting its own economy.
  3. The partnership between China and Russia is changing. China is distancing itself from Russia after the Ukraine invasion and is cautiously moving towards the West, showing it might not support Russia like before.

Will there be a Trump bounce? OPEC has prices wrong & Why the US needs Diego Garcia

Chartbook • 228 implied HN points • 22 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Policies Public Opinion Economics Geopolitics
  1. The idea of a 'Trump bounce' in the economy might not lead to an increase in loan demand like it did before. It's important to pay attention to financial trends and how sentiment affects the market.
  2. OPEC's pricing strategies could be misaligned with the current market conditions, which may impact global oil prices and economies that rely on them.
  3. The US strategic interest in Diego Garcia highlights the importance of military and geopolitical positioning in global affairs, especially regarding security and trade.

Vlad the Terrible

Diane Francis • 1019 implied HN points • 29 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Conflict Studies Military Strategy Political Analysis
  1. Putin is facing serious challenges to his power after a failed mutiny, showing that his grip on Russia is weakening. Many in his inner circle are worried and uncertain about his leadership.
  2. The oligarchs and elites in Russia are tired of the ongoing war and its negative impact on their businesses. They might push for a change in leadership or a shift in strategy to stabilize the country.
  3. There is potential for a new administration of moderates to emerge, which could lead to negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and help rebuild Russia.

Whither China 5: No, China is not competing with India for Wall Street's attention.

Chartbook • 1316 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Globalization Investment Trade Geopolitics Economy
  1. Wall Street is pulling billions from China's economy and shifting focus to India, creating a significant change in global markets.
  2. Financial flows in China show a trade surplus, with global investors moving away from China and towards India.
  3. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into China has drastically decreased since 2022, reflecting investor concerns about geopolitics and domestic policies.