The hottest Geopolitics Substack posts right now

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Top Links 654 Ukraine's trillions in critical minerals. The economics of crime. Chinese science at war.

Chartbook • 300 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Conflict Studies Resource Management Global Economics
  1. Ukraine has a lot of valuable minerals underground that could have big economic impacts.
  2. There are complex relationships between crime and economics that are worth exploring.
  3. China is currently facing challenges in its scientific community, impacting its global standing.

The Oil War

Diane Francis • 1099 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Geopolitics Energy Politics Environmental Issues
  1. Illicit oil trade is booming, with many ships smuggling oil from Russia and Iran. This trade helps fund wars and poses environmental risks due to poorly maintained vessels.
  2. China and India play a major role in supporting Russia's economy by importing significant amounts of oil. This trend allows them to profit while indirectly supporting Russia's actions in Ukraine.
  3. Despite existing sanctions, the criminal activity in the oil sector continues to thrive. It's important for international authorities to step up enforcement and regulation to stop this dangerous trade.

Europe's 2024 Resolution

Diane Francis • 1199 implied HN points • 15 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Military Affairs Foreign Policy Defense Strategy
  1. Europe is realizing the serious threat Russia poses, leading to stronger military support for Ukraine. Countries like Germany and the UK are stepping up with more weapons and defenses.
  2. Despite heavy losses, Ukraine is making gains and has the support of its allies. They believe that if they keep fighting, they can defeat Russia and reclaim their land.
  3. There's growing unity among European nations, and many are considering tough measures like seizing Russian assets to help Ukraine. Leaders are optimistic about ultimate victory against Russia's aggression.

China is ‘world’s sole manufacturing superpower’, with 35% of global output

Geopolitical Economy Report • 1056 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Manufacturing Economy Trade Industrialization Geopolitics
  1. China has become the world's top manufacturing power, accounting for 35% of global production.
  2. China's economic success is largely attributed to its state-led development model, with government-controlled enterprises and strategic policies.
  3. The US is heavily reliant on Chinese manufactured goods, making complete decoupling challenging and costly for both countries.

The Six Big Questions of 2025

Phillips’s Newsletter • 81 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Conflict International relations Defense Strategies
  1. Ukraine is increasing its long-range weapons to target Russia more effectively. This means they are ready for deeper strikes, which could change the dynamics of the conflict.
  2. The focus will be on military production from both sides in 2025. This could determine who has the upper hand in the ongoing war.
  3. There are key questions that need answers to understand how the war will unfold in 2025. These questions are critical for predicting the future events in the conflict.
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Quick Update

Black Mountain Analysis • 1926 implied HN points • 08 Jun 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Conflict Negotiations Military Strategy
  1. The strategic analysis focuses on key figures in Russia and emphasizes the importance of interpreting their statements.
  2. Economic impacts of sanctions have led to reindustrialization in Russia and decreased unemployment rates.
  3. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine involves the destruction of the Ukrainian army and potential risks of further escalations and involvement of neighboring countries.

It's World War III

Diane Francis • 1678 implied HN points • 06 Nov 23
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Conflict Diplomacy Security Foreign Policy
  1. The conflicts in Israel and Ukraine are seen as part of a larger world war driven by Russia. Putin's actions are creating unrest globally, not just in those regions.
  2. Russia uses various tactics, including hybrid warfare, to destabilize nations and influence events. This includes supporting groups like Hamas and using misinformation.
  3. A unified global response is necessary to counter Russia's influence. Without international cooperation, the ongoing conflicts and instability will persist.

Putin, Ukraine, and the World

Diane Francis • 959 implied HN points • 03 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Conflict Studies Geopolitics Security Issues
  1. Putin is seen as a major force behind many global conflicts and issues today. His actions are not just limited to Ukraine but impacting many regions worldwide.
  2. There is a strong belief that Russia's corrupt government, or kleptocracy, needs to be dismantled to achieve peace. Tackling this is viewed as essential for global stability.
  3. The message emphasizes the importance of acknowledging Ukraine’s resilient people and their talent in the face of adversity. Supporting them is crucial for a healthier world.

Who speaks of the Armenians?

Wrong Side of History • 731 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Conflict Studies Human Rights Historical Analysis Geopolitics
  1. The Armenian genocide in 1915-1917 is often overlooked, despite its horrific nature. Many Armenians fear that the hatred from that time still exists, leading to more violence.
  2. The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has roots in historical tensions, but it intensified with recent wars over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Many civilians have suffered and been forced to flee.
  3. Azerbaijan has significant oil and gas resources that influence its global relationships, often overshadowing its human rights abuses. Western countries continue to engage with Baku for energy supplies, ignoring its actions against Armenians.

CIA director calls China biggest 'threat', says Ukraine war benefits US geopolitically and economically

Geopolitical Economy Report • 916 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics US-China Relations US-Russia relations Military Strategy Economic Impacts
  1. CIA Director William J. Burns has labeled China as the biggest long-term threat and emphasized focusing resources on countering China.
  2. The CIA has significantly increased its attention on China, creating a dedicated mission center and doubling its budget for operations related to China.
  3. US CIA Director acknowledged that the war in Ukraine has been beneficial for the US, both geopolitically and economically, and used it as a strategy to send a message to China regarding Taiwan.

Syria after Assad

In My Tribe • 577 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Conflict Diplomacy Sovereignty Geopolitics Middle East
  1. Syria isn't ready for democracy yet. The country lacks the necessary conditions and institutions to support a democratic system.
  2. After Assad's fall, the rebel groups may struggle to unite due to their different ethnic and political backgrounds. Their divisions could lead to conflict among themselves.
  3. Syria has significant strategic importance to neighboring countries like Turkey, Iran, and Israel. These powers may influence Syria's future to protect their own interests.

Amb. Burns Reflects from Beijing

ChinaTalk • 415 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
🌍 World Politics Diplomacy International relations Geopolitics Conflict resolution Trade policy
  1. Dialogue is crucial in maintaining relationships between superpowers. Talking helps address issues and avoid misunderstandings that could escalate into conflicts.
  2. China faces a choice between aligning with disruptive nations like Russia or acting as a responsible global power. Their decisions now have significant implications for their international relationships.
  3. Having strong alliances is essential for the U.S. in its competition with China. Allies amplify American power and help maintain global stability.

Political Genocide

Diane Francis • 1019 implied HN points • 18 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Human Rights Conflict Studies Geopolitics War Crimes
  1. South Africa accuses Israel of genocide but ignores serious actions by Russia, Iran, and China that also fit the definition of genocide. This suggests a selective focus in addressing global human rights issues.
  2. Israel was attacked by Hamas and retaliated against them, which does not mean they committed genocide. They took steps to protect civilians, which shows they were acting in self-defense.
  3. Labeling a country that is defending itself from genocide as guilty of genocide is legally confusing and not just, according to legal experts. It's important to differentiate between acts of war and acts of genocide.

".....but a whimper."

Fisted by Foucault • 190 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics International relations Democracy Elections
  1. Georgia has a history of movements for change, but recent protests after an election were surprisingly quiet. This might indicate a lack of energy or uncertainty among the citizens about how to respond.
  2. Many NGOs in Georgia rely heavily on foreign funding, but the government has started to restrict their influence to protect its own power. This has made the situation tricky for the opposition.
  3. Despite wanting to join the EU, many Georgian citizens are not willing to challenge the current government. Concerns about potential war with Russia also play a role in their hesitance.

A Third World War?

Thinking about... • 616 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics International Conflict Geopolitics Military Strategy Nuclear proliferation Eastern Europe
  1. Ukrainians are fighting hard to keep the war contained in their country, which helps prevent a bigger conflict that could involve more nations. Their efforts are like firefighters protecting everyone else from a dangerous situation.
  2. Support for Ukraine is crucial. If other countries stop backing Ukraine while they fight against Russia, it could lead to a larger global conflict and even more nations getting nuclear weapons.
  3. Hysteria and fear can lead to bad decisions that make the situation worse. It's important to stay calm and recognize that supporting Ukraine helps make the world a safer place for everyone.

Putting the recent coups in the Sahel in broader perspective

An Africanist Perspective • 1761 implied HN points • 03 Aug 23
🌍 World Politics Democracy Geopolitics Sovereignty
  1. The recent coups in the Sahel are not just about democratic backsliding, but also reflect state-building failures and shaky sovereignty, with conflicting incentives among various actors
  2. Public support for military intervention in politics in some of these countries indicates frustration with the failures of democracy to deliver, highlighting the need for meaningful change and democratic consolidation
  3. The discourse on self-determination arising from the current crisis presents an opportunity to rethink governance, repair social contracts, and foster local solutions to regional challenges in the Sahel

Ukraine’s Kursk 2.0 Offensive – The Strategic Implications of the Sudzha Bridgehead

Glen’s Substack • 118 implied HN points • 12 Aug 24
🌍 World Politics Military Strategy Geopolitics International relations Conflict analysis Eastern Europe
  1. Ukraine has taken control of the significant city of Sudzha, which helps them advance further into Russian territory. This might change the dynamics of the war as they threaten Russian supply lines.
  2. The Sudzha bridgehead allows Ukraine to disrupt Russian logistics and potentially attack key military bases nearby. This could weaken Russia's operations in the region.
  3. By holding Sudzha, Ukraine improves its chances of bargaining in future negotiations. It also creates a new chapter in their struggle for independence from Russian influence.

Niccolo on Patrick Casey's Restoring Order: Syria and the Fall of the Assad Regime

Fisted by Foucault • 75 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Middle East Political Analysis Geopolitics
  1. The discussion focuses on the recent events in Syria, specifically looking at the fall of the Assad regime and the roles of various players like Iran and Russia. It's important to understand who gained and who lost from this situation.
  2. The conversation also covers the concept of 'wishcasting' and the idea that the U.S. is unlikely to repeat previous military actions like in Iraq. This highlights changing perspectives on American intervention.
  3. The speaker is experimenting with audio content for their platform, planning to create short historical episodes. This shows a shift towards exploring history in a new, engaging format.

2024 Year in Review (Part 2)

Phillips’s Newsletter • 85 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Conflict Military International relations Diplomacy
  1. Ukraine's Kursk offensive showed that surprises are still possible in modern warfare. This campaign was unexpected and changed the course of their struggle.
  2. In the first half of 2024, Ukraine faced tough challenges due to reduced U.S. aid and heavy losses in battles. However, they adapted and found ways to fight back effectively.
  3. The Russian military strategy of micro-advances faced setbacks, allowing Ukraine to regroup and launch a strong counter-offensive later in the year.

The Moral Bankruptcy of the West

John’s Substack • 84 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Human Rights Geopolitics International Law Middle East Conflict
  1. Recent reports accuse Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. Organizations like Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have highlighted these issues.
  2. Countries like the United States, Britain, and Germany, which claim to care about human rights, are seen as supporting these actions rather than stopping them.
  3. Many human rights advocates and the media in the West have been unusually silent about the situation in Gaza, raising questions about their moral stance.

Proxy wars in Syria, Lebanon, Ukraine overlap and explode

Aaron Mate • 136 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Proxy wars Middle East Eastern Europe Terrorism
  1. Proxy wars in places like Syria, Lebanon, and Ukraine are connected and worsen each other. This means that fighting in one area can spill over into another and create more chaos.
  2. As a result of these conflicts, groups like Al Qaeda can take advantage and gain control of more areas, leading to new crises. This shows how interconnected these wars can be.
  3. The actions of major powers, like the CIA and Israel, are often behind these conflicts, showing how international interests can shape local battles and instability.

Next for Ukraine

Diane Francis • 1179 implied HN points • 11 Dec 23
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Military Aid Democracy Legislation Geopolitics
  1. Ukraine is facing challenges in getting the military aid it needs as political obstacles grow in both the U.S. and Europe. Leaders are rushing to resolve these issues since aid is crucial for Ukraine's defense.
  2. There are fears that without adequate support, Ukraine could experience severe consequences, including more refugees and a potential military collapse. Historical experts are worried about the broader impact on global stability.
  3. Despite political delays, some military aid is still being provided to Ukraine. The Ukrainian leaders remain determined to continue fighting for their country and not to give up any territory.

ICJ's Israel genocide decision: Historic victory for Palestinians and Global South

Geopolitical Economy Report • 857 implied HN points • 27 Jan 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Genocide International Law Human Rights Conflict resolution
  1. The International Court of Justice's historic decision on Israel potentially violating the genocide convention is a win for Palestinians and the Global South
  2. The ICJ's ruling emphasized the need for Israel to prevent genocide acts against Palestinians, ensure humanitarian aid access, and preserve evidence of alleged crimes
  3. The ICJ indirectly called for a ceasefire in Gaza, exposing the Western media's distorted coverage of the decision and highlighting the declining international support for Israel

Guilt by Association

Doomberg • 6508 implied HN points • 12 Apr 23
🔬 Science Energy Chemistry Geopolitics Natural Gas Oil
  1. Old practices of thrift are now merchandised as 'upcycling.'
  2. Utilizing byproducts from manufacturing and petrochemical industry is both necessary and economical.
  3. High oil prices incentivize more oil drilling, leading to oversupply and lower natural gas prices in the US.

The Empire Depends On Our Unwillingness To Look At Its Crimes

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 1732 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Imperialism Propaganda Empire Geopolitics Media
  1. The empire relies on people's unwillingness to face its crimes, as looking directly at the unpleasant truth can shatter their worldview.
  2. Mass media propaganda aims to build a worldview loyal to establishment power structures and trap individuals in power-serving echo chambers.
  3. Creating awareness about the empire's atrocities and encouraging people to critically examine the status quo can help break the cycle of indoctrination and bring about change.

AI Geopolitics in the Age of Test-Time Compute w Chris Miller + Lennart Heim

ChinaTalk • 385 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Geopolitics Export Controls International relations Innovation
  1. Export controls on AI technology don't stop progress immediately, but they affect long-term access to necessary chips. Countries can still access older tech, keeping them competitive for a while.
  2. AI models require more compute power as they get better. This means countries need to invest substantially to support advanced AI systems, as even small changes in processing time can increase resource demands significantly.
  3. U.S. cloud providers might help monitor how AI chips are used abroad, which could both protect U.S. interests and promote responsible AI development. This strategy could help balance control with innovation.

The Kaiser's Long Stare

Daily Dreher • 1552 implied HN points • 30 Sep 23
🌍 World Politics Empires Institutions Leadership Geopolitics Democracy
  1. The novel 'The Radetzky March' explores the decline of the Austro-Hungarian Empire through three generations of the von Trotta family.
  2. The book reflects on the importance of faith in institutions and the internal decay that can lead to their downfall.
  3. The text draws parallels between historical events and the current social and political challenges, highlighting the importance of an animating spirit within a society.

Mug Moscow Now

Diane Francis • 1059 implied HN points • 18 Dec 23
🌍 World Politics International Law Geopolitics Conflict resolution Economic Sanctions War Crimes
  1. Western countries have frozen over $300 billion in Russian assets since the invasion of Ukraine. Some propose using this money to help fund Ukraine's defense and recovery.
  2. While some countries like Belgium are trying to find ways to access these funds, overall efforts have faced obstacles and legal concerns. The belief that Russia would compensate Ukraine after the war is unrealistic.
  3. Enforcing tougher sanctions on Russia, especially on its oil and gas exports, is vital to limit its ability to finance the war. Immediate action is needed to support Ukraine effectively.

Progressive realism and Perfidious Albion

Wrong Side of History • 584 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
🌍 World Politics Geopolitics Foreign Relations Conflict International Law Human Rights
  1. Armenia is caught in a tough spot geopolitically, needing support from larger powers such as Iran, Turkey, and Russia but often feeling abandoned. This ongoing struggle shapes their national identity and foreign relations.
  2. Azerbaijan has a strong military backed by Turkey, leaving Armenia feeling vulnerable and lacking allies. Many Armenians fear another attack from Azerbaijan in the near future.
  3. Britain's foreign policy appears to neglect Armenia's history and needs, as seen in recent comments from officials that seem to favor Azerbaijan. This raises concerns about human rights and ethical responsibilities in international relations.

A Sugar AI High Shrugs Off Bad Market News

Peter Navarro's Taking Back Trump's America • 884 implied HN points • 12 Jan 24
💰 Finance Markets Investments Economy Interest Rates Geopolitics
  1. The S&P 500 continues to rise despite bad news like inflation and unemployment.
  2. Big tech billionaires are heavily investing in AI that may impact the job market and lead to technological warfare.
  3. Geopolitical tensions, including the possibility of war in the Middle East, are influencing the market's stability.

Nyhetsbrev steigan.no 18.02.2025

steigan.no • 6 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Elections International relations Political News Geopolitics
  1. Negotiating with the EU can be risky for countries like Norway, as it may not align with their national interests. It's essential to prioritize what's best for Norway rather than just following EU agendas.
  2. The relationship between the EU and the US is changing, and Europe may need to find its own voice and stance in global politics, especially regarding partnerships with other countries like China.
  3. There's a concern that European leaders may not be respected as strong partners in negotiations, particularly in conflicts like the one in Ukraine. Focusing too much on past agreements could weaken future influence.

"Peace summit" without negotiations to end the Ukraine War

Glenn’s Substack • 179 implied HN points • 19 Jun 24
🌍 World Politics International relations Conflict resolution Diplomacy Security Studies Geopolitics
  1. The recent 'peace summit' didn't include Russia or discuss everyone’s security concerns, which is a big problem.
  2. The summit focused more on getting signatures for a declaration instead of really solving the conflict.
  3. There might be pressure now for a real peace summit that actually tries to end the war instead of just picking a side.

The West is Sleepingwalking into Major Wars - Alastair Crooke, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen

Glenn’s Substack • 179 implied HN points • 19 Jun 24
🌍 World Politics Conflicts International relations Geopolitics Military Affairs Diplomacy
  1. The West is not fully aware of the risks it faces, which could lead to major conflicts.
  2. Ignoring signs of rising tensions might result in bigger problems for everyone.
  3. It's important for leaders to engage in dialogue and understand global dynamics better to avoid war.