The hottest National Security Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways

Yeesh, Who Would Have Thought That Allies Actually Mattered?

Phillips’s Newsletter • 271 implied HN points • 16 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

Trump is speeding the U.S.’s decline by deliberately weakening core pillars like social cohesion, political institutions, and the military’s ability to think.
Alliances are a central source of American global power and are essential for winning wars, so damaging the U.S.-led alliance system severely weakens the country’s position.
The administration only just seemed to realize alliances matter, but after actively trying to undermine them the damage may already be hard to undo.

TGIF: Bad for Business Class

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1738 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

Real-time OSINT tools let ordinary people track military movements and turn anyone into a self-styled expert, which fuels constant anxiety about imminent war.
Recent aircraft movements — US E-3 Sentry radars, a KC-46 tanker escorted by F-22s, and Russian Il-76s in Iran — reflect heightened tensions around Iran and raise the possibility of military action.
The newsletter blends reporting with event promotion and subscription asks, showing how independent outlets monetize coverage through ticketed events and paywalled content.

⚠️ L'affaire Anthropic: When government bullies the builders

Faster, Please! • 1188 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26

🕹 Technology National Security

Governments have a legitimate final say on national security, but that can clash with companies that want clear, predictable rules to operate by.
Branding an AI firm a security risk for limiting military use risks undermining trust and could scare off investment and innovation.
Democracies must balance security powers with protections against arbitrary government coercion, or economic growth and technological progress suffer.

Anthropic Doesn’t Decide Our Military’s Rules of Engagement

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 273 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26

🕹 Technology National Security

Private AI companies shouldn't try to set the terms for how the military uses their tech; decisions about rules of engagement belong to the armed forces and government.
When a company tried to control military use, it sparked a public clash and led to the company being sidelined, which can limit timely access to important defense tools.
Tech firms should focus on protecting soldiers by building reliable, safe systems and cooperating with the Pentagon instead of fighting it over usage terms.

J.D. Vance’s Iran Dilemma

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 783 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

The Iran war is splitting the MAGA coalition and forcing Vice President J.D. Vance to pick sides between anti-war voices like Tucker Carlson and President Trump.
Vance was unusually quiet over the weekend, then said Trump authorized Operation Epic Fury to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon rather than to launch an endless war.
The MAGA coalition includes many conflicting factions — hawks, neo-isolationists, evangelicals, and online hardliners — and the Iran fight threatens the movement's unity.

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Guess they were more B-O-R-E-D of Peace

The Rubesletter by Matt Ruby (of Vooza) | Sent every Tuesday • 570 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

War with Iran would be risky and unpredictable, and trying to force regime change from the air without clear goals, congressional approval, or a postwar plan could have serious, unforeseen consequences.
The president’s McDonald’s spectacle with the U.S. men’s hockey team shows crass, politicized showmanship and how pulling athletes into political theater can backfire; public apologies often don’t satisfy outrage culture and can incentivize denial.
The BAFTAs incident where a person with Tourette’s shouted a racial slur raises a painful dilemma between condemning racism and being sensitive to neurodivergence and ableism, forcing a hard conversation about accountability versus compassion.

13 thoughts on Anthropic, OpenAI and the Department of War

Silver Bulletin • 935 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26

🕹 Technology National Security

AI hit an inflection point in early 2026 and is now a central political and economic issue that forces high-stakes, real-world decisions.
Government actions around Anthropic and the Pentagon’s deal with OpenAI show how politics can reshape competition, steer which models get used, and cause talent and reputational shifts in the industry.
AI capabilities appear to have stepped up recently, making rapid deployment and governance urgent and heightening concerns about safety, democratic oversight, and long-term risk.

The core misconception that is driving American AI policy

Marcus on AI • 11817 implied HN points • 13 Dec 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

The idea that generative AI is a winner-take-all race between the US and China is false; both countries will develop and serve similar AI products and neither will totally dominate.
Companies in both places follow the same playbook, so technical leads will be brief and open-source sharing keeps long-term advantage from settling with one side.
Pouring huge resources into an all-out AI race is risky; the real advantage may go to whoever avoids overextending, especially if large models prove temporary or are replaced by more efficient approaches.

Trump Keeps His Promise to Iran—and Takes a Big Gamble

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 853 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

The U.S. and Israel launched strikes targeting Iran’s nuclear sites and top leaders, with reports that the supreme leader’s compound and senior commanders were hit.
The operation is a major escalation and a high‑stakes gamble that could reshape the entire Middle East.
Trump openly urged Iranians to rise up and seize their government, and Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Israeli and U.S. bases in the Gulf have raised the risk of a wider conflict.

AI Just Entered Its Manhattan Project Era

The Algorithmic Bridge • 902 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26

🕹 Technology National Security

Anthropic’s refusal to accept blanket “any lawful use” terms triggered a DoD showdown and opened the door for OpenAI, but the commercial damage to Anthropic is likely small and the immediate drama will probably fade.
This episode shows AI is shifting from a mostly technical competition to a political and geopolitical fight, with governments ready to use procurement, law, and power to control strategic AI capabilities.
Public boycotts and user exoduses can create noise but are unlikely to reorder the market; access to government partnerships, regulation, and geopolitical leverage will matter far more going forward.

Trump Has Had Enough of Tucker Carlson

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 1117 implied HN points • 23 Feb 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

Trump has privately urged Tucker Carlson to stop attacking Israel because those attacks are splitting his coalition and could hurt his chances in the midterms and the next election.
Carlson has openly condemned Israel’s response to the October 7 attacks, claimed Israel has outsized influence on U.S. policy, and even suggested a nuclear-armed Iran might stabilize the region, which has alienated many pro-Israel conservatives.
A recent three-hour interview with Mike Huckabee, which some hoped would be a truce, instead opened a new front and deepened the rift between Carlson and pro-Israel MAGA influencers, worrying people close to Trump.

Will Trump Call Time on the Iran War?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 268 implied HN points • 10 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

Trump says the military campaign is largely complete and is running ahead of the original timeline.
Israeli leaders fear he may cut the campaign short again, repeating a past pattern of limited patience.
Israel wants a longer operation—roughly four to five weeks—to exhaust its list of targets because the current 11-day window is seen as too short.

The Rot Is Real And There Is More To It

Phillips’s Newsletter • 637 implied HN points • 06 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

Endemic corruption and the replacement of competent officers with loyalists and fanatics have hollowed out decision-making, morale, and expertise across the US military and diplomatic corps.
The Iran bombing has exposed unprecedented operational failures — including large friendly‑fire losses, poor industrial/logistical preparation, and a confused articulation of strategic goals despite months of warning.
Those failures carry dangerous consequences: likely catastrophic civilian harm (including a struck girls' school), the US being used to advance other countries' interests, and serious damage to alliance diplomacy and credibility.

Procurement, Capacity and Soverignity

Can We Still Govern? • 257 implied HN points • 09 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

Procurement shapes whether the state can carry out core functions. Heavy reliance on contractors can weaken government control and citizens' sense of sovereignty.
Dependence on private and foreign vendors for military and digital systems creates security and supply-chain vulnerabilities. Those dependencies push allies to seek autonomy and reduce trust.
Some contractors pursue ideological or political agendas and can become entrenched and hard to replace. Governments must weigh political alignment and rebuild in-house capacity, not just chase short-term efficiency, when deciding to outsource.

Your Primer on Greenland.

Breaking the News • 3437 implied HN points • 19 Jan 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

The push to seize Greenland stems from one person’s psychological desire for ownership rather than from rational national-interest reasons.
The U.S. would get little or nothing and likely face net negative outcomes: military access already exists, mining is impractical now, and governing Greenland would be hugely costly and difficult.
Greenlanders and the U.S.’s allies strongly oppose a takeover, and Greenland is much smaller, far more remote, and sparsely populated than many people realize.

War isn't what it once was

Silver Bulletin • 605 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

Wars today are different — more airpower, fewer U.S. casualties, and no draft — so the old rally-then-quagmire model is less predictive and many voters are often indifferent unless there are big casualties or attacks at home.
The Iran conflict is higher-stakes politically because it can push up oil prices, is being conducted with Israel (which creates partisan tensions), and reminds voters of Iraq/Afghanistan in a way that could alienate swing voters.
It might fade from public attention like recent interventions, but there are real downside risks for the president if the war escalates or creates economic pain, so the likely political effect is uncertain and tilted toward harm.

In the Time of the Mad King.

Breaking the News • 3719 implied HN points • 12 Jan 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

A president who can’t tell fact from fiction is proposing reckless, unnecessary actions—like trying to seize Greenland—that would offend allies and add burdens the country doesn’t need.
Powerful aides and politicians are keeping him in place by lying, manipulating, or becoming true believers, which lets destructive and self-serving policies spread.
This mix of a disintegrating leader and enabling henchmen raises the real risk of institutional breakdown, including split loyalties in the military and harsher enforcement at home, with dangerous consequences for everyone.

How Hubris Created an 'Invincible' Military

God's Spies by Thomas Neuburger • 100 implied HN points • 20 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

The U.S. military’s procurement is driven by contractors and profit, producing costly systems that can be ineffective in real asymmetric conflicts.
Millennium Challenge 2002 showed that low-tech, unconventional tactics can overwhelm a high-tech, networked force, but the exercise was manipulated to avoid confronting that truth.
Hubris and corruption among leaders have left the armed forces ill-prepared for wars like those with Iran, creating real danger for service members.

Empires Fall

Slack Tide by Matt Labash • 239 implied HN points • 14 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

Our leaders are leaning on meme-speak and spectacle instead of serious strategy, turning big decisions into performative shows. That makes policy shallow, erratic, and hard to trust.
The current campaign has poorly defined objectives and shaky competence, which makes it likely to become a costly, unresolved conflict; asymmetric tactics and disruptions (like hits on shipping and higher oil prices) already show the damage.
Empires decline when they grow decadent, overextend, and believe their own hype, and America may be following that pattern; if so, the world could lose a once-reliable stabilizing power and face an uncertain rearrangement.

Life Under Rockets. J.D. Vance’s Iran Dilemma. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 459 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26

📰 News National Security

The conflict with Iran is escalating, with strikes and counterattacks across the region that threaten civilians, disrupt allies, and are already pushing up oil prices.
J.D. Vance’s extended public silence on U.S. strikes, followed by a delayed comment, suggests a possible split within the MAGA coalition that could reshape Republican unity during the crisis.
There’s a counterargument to AI panic: AI could boost happiness and productivity rather than cause mass unemployment, solving routine problems and letting people focus on uniquely human work.

Ethnic Cleansing in Ohio?

Thinking about... • 1633 implied HN points • 01 Feb 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

Powerful politicians and white‑supremacist groups pushed false, dehumanizing stories about Haitian residents in Springfield — like claims they ate pets — and turned local rumors into a national narrative.
That propaganda produced real harm: Nazi marches, threats, doxxing, and federal steps (ending TPS and planned ICE raids) that risk mass deportations and what looks like ethnic cleansing.
Local leaders and communities are organizing to resist, warn, and protect residents, and legal, public, or civic action can still help block or lessen the harm.

How Far Can Trump Go in Iran? Here’s What the Law Says.

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 510 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

The Constitution gives Congress the sole power to declare war, so a president cannot unilaterally start a war without congressional authorization.
Even though the president is commander in chief, the scope of presidential war-making power has been disputed for over 200 years and remains unsettled.
A large military strike described as "war" can be argued to cross a constitutional red line under precedents like the Prize Cases and therefore may be unconstitutional.

War Hits Hard for Families of Soldiers Sent Off to Fight

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 185 implied HN points • 11 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

Deployment causes intense worry that shows up as physical symptoms like cold sweats and heart palpitations, creating a constant, underlying dread.
Loved ones often don’t know where soldiers actually are or what dangers they face, leaving them feeling helpless and uncertain.
Everyday life and caregiving continue, and people use small routines and distractions to cope, but those strategies don’t remove the ongoing fear and stress.

No war for pedos?

Michael Tracey • 86 implied HN points • 19 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

A viral "War for Epstein" narrative claims Trump attacked Iran to hide or protect Jeffrey Epstein-related crimes, and that idea has spread widely across social media, pundits, politicians, and foreign propagandists.
Those Epstein-based theories are largely unproven and distract from sober anti-war arguments, fueling moral panic, eroding journalistic standards and civil liberties, and functioning as propaganda rather than evidence-based analysis.
A more plausible explanation points to Trump’s documented appetite for resource seizure and territorial control (the "take the oil" ethos) and to geopolitical motives, while many actors exploit Epstein mythology for partisan or strategic gain.

Dario Amodei isn't the hero we need

Nonzero Newsletter • 688 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26

🕹 Technology National Security

Dario Amodei showed courage standing up to the Pentagon, but he’s not a pacifist. He supports using advanced AI to defend democracies and has said fully autonomous weapons can have legitimate uses.
Anthropic has abandoned its core Responsible Scaling Policy and will release models even when it isn’t confident in their safety, so Amodei’s image as an unwavering AI-safety champion is overstated.
The real problem is systemic: big AI firms are already defense contractors and contract language like “all lawful uses” won’t guarantee respect for international law or prevent harmful military uses, so lasting change needs policy and regulation, not just individual standoffs.

THE SHOW NOTES: Israel's Next Move, Iran's Big Problem, & The Case Against Trump

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 819 implied HN points • 03 Oct 24

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

Israel has launched airstrikes against Hezbollah, indicating a possible escalation in their ongoing conflict. This suggests that Israel is taking a more aggressive stance during the current tensions.
Iran faces challenges in defending itself as it lacks a strong air force. The situation suggests that Iran may be more vulnerable than it has been in many years.
Democrats are struggling to keep support from Hispanic voters, which could impact future elections. The shift in voting trends among this group is seen as significant and may change the political landscape.

Yes, Both Sides

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 9344 implied HN points • 25 Nov 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

Both major parties are trading escalating, theatrical attacks that push politics toward a dangerous breaking point instead of calming things down.
Vague messages like 'you can refuse illegal orders' risk politicizing the military and intelligence communities, creating legal uncertainty that can paralyze officers and prompt resignations.
Violent threats and calls for punishment from the other side deepen retaliation and erode democratic norms, so both sides need to de-escalate to preserve governance and stability.

Trump and the Putinization of the US Government

Phillips’s Newsletter • 200 implied HN points • 13 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

A single, odd image of a top official in comically oversized shoes can be deeply unsettling and symbolically damaging.
It's striking and alarming that someone serving as Secretary of State and National Security Adviser can appear pitiable or unprofessional, which undercuts the seriousness of their office.
The fact the shoes are cheaply made in China and worn by a wealthy, powerful figure highlights a jarring disconnect between appearance and the dignity expected of high office.

March 17, 2026

Letters from an American • 30 implied HN points • 18 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

A U.S. military campaign has helped close the Strait of Hormuz and driven oil prices sharply higher, disrupting global supplies of oil, gas, fertilizer, helium, and aluminum; meanwhile Russia is aiding Iran and the U.S. appears poorly prepared after cutting energy-diplomacy staff and decommissioning minesweeper capabilities.
The war is fracturing the president’s coalition, with allies and officials resigning or distancing themselves and warning that the administration may no longer control how or when the conflict ends.
The president is using the crisis to push domestic political goals—attacking the Supreme Court and pushing a voter ID/proof-of-citizenship law that could remove millions from the rolls while urging filibuster changes—just as rising gas prices threaten his working-class support.

Against All Enemies

Unpopular Front • 150 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

The current military action lacks a clear strategy or legal rationale, and leadership looks impulsive and unfocused, making outcomes unpredictable.
Domestic failures and a turn toward neocon influence are pushing risky foreign adventures as a way to distract from problems at home, but there’s no real effort to win public support.
The campaign appears materially unsustainable — interceptors and munitions are being depleted and even friendly forces have been lost to errors — raising a serious risk of prolonged escalation.

How We’re Covering the War. Plus: Our Newest Columnist and Podcast

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 268 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26

🌍 World Politics National Security

They’re devoting intensive, around-the-clock reporting and expert analysis to the unfolding Iran war to help readers understand what’s happening and why it matters.
Former Marine Aaron MacLean is joining as a columnist and host of the School of War podcast and will host a live discussion at noon ET with retired General Frank McKenzie.
Full coverage is behind a paid subscription, and new subscribers can get seven days free to access all reporting and livestreams.

Iran: We're Ending Taxpayer-Funded Appeasement

OpenTheBooks Substack • 263 implied HN points • 03 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

Taxpayer-funded policies sent large financial benefits to Iran that helped fund its proxies, and that practice must end.
Foreign aid has been disjointed and sometimes funded wasteful or ideologically driven projects, so aid should be more strategic and focused on effective priorities.
Any country receiving U.S. security or economic assistance should publish a real-time, searchable database of government spending so taxpayers can verify use and demand accountability.

MAGA is an ‘identity-centred’ political form - take it seriously

Brain Pizza • 331 implied HN points • 26 Feb 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

MAGA is best seen as an identity-centred political form rather than a single coherent ideology, and it now dominates large parts of the US government and a significant portion of the population.
MAGA treats many other countries and groups as an out-group, which shows up in policies like tariffs on allies, threats to NATO partners, and outreach to hostile actors.
Its strength comes from deep human cognitive, affective, and social dynamics, making it emotionally powerful, resilient, and a major influence on national security and international relations.

Has the Chinese government figured out the fact that GPUs ≠ AGI?

Marcus on AI • 6165 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25

🕹 Technology National Security

China is holding back on buying Nvidia H200 GPUs, which suggests they may recognize that more GPU hardware doesn't automatically mean AGI.
Loading up on expensive AI infrastructure now could be premature because hardware and approaches can quickly become outdated or lose value, so hoarding chips might not pay off.
The first country to appreciate that GPUs ≠ AGI could gain a major strategic and economic advantage in the next phase of AI development.

The Q-Day Edition

Why is this interesting? • 1025 implied HN points • 05 Feb 26

🕹 Technology National Security

Nation-states are quietly collecting huge amounts of encrypted data today that they can’t read now, betting that future quantum computers will let them decrypt it later.
That strategy flips the usual logic: instead of information losing value over time, encrypted data can become more valuable as quantum advances approach.
This reality forces a rethink of security and policy — we need post-quantum encryption and stronger counterintelligence because many current secrets are effectively already compromised even if they remain unreadable today.

How America Surrendered Its Weapons in the Information War

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 264 implied HN points • 05 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

There is a second front — an information war — against Iran and other rivals, and many experts worry the U.S. is ill-equipped to win it.
Rousing public calls for Iranians to rise may not work if U.S. messages can't reliably reach or influence people inside Iran.
The agencies meant to project American information power are in disarray, weakening that capability — for example, USAGM failed an audit because it couldn’t provide proper financial documentation.

The War in Iran Is Illegal. Here’s Why That Matters.

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 106 implied HN points • 12 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

The U.S. strikes on Iran lack a clear public legal justification and may be illegal because the administration hasn’t produced evidence of an imminent threat.
Officials gave vague, conflicting explanations—such as preempting attacks tied to Israeli actions—which sparked political backlash and undermined the administration’s credibility.
Launching military action without Congress breaks constitutional norms and is especially dangerous now when public trust in the Constitution is eroding.

Trump's weak justifications for attacking Iran

Can We Still Govern? • 314 implied HN points • 01 Mar 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

The stated reasons for attacking Iran are inconsistent and often exaggerated, with claims about imminent nuclear or missile threats and election meddling not clearly backed by public intelligence.
The administration bypassed a clear congressional case and offered multiple conflicting rationales—regime change, protecting Americans, and ending a decades‑long rivalry—which weakens legal and political legitimacy.
Because the justifications are weak, public support is low and the action risks becoming a costly, prolonged conflict that may not bring democracy or stability to Iranians or the region.

Is the White House’s AI Policy Coherent?

Marcus on AI • 5493 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

The administration is moving to block state AI rules and largely deregulate the industry while also allowing sales of powerful AI chips to China, a contradictory stance that would leave few legal protections for citizens.
There is strong bipartisan and public opposition to these moves, so the policy risks significant political backlash and could fracture the president’s political coalition.
The combination of deregulation and chip exports creates real risks to national security and the economy by empowering competitors, hurting U.S. firms, and increasing the chance of costly or dangerous AI failures.

TGIF: Bored of Peace

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2007 implied HN points • 23 Jan 26

🇺🇸 U.S. Politics National Security

President Trump has launched a U.S.-led “Board of Peace” pitched as an alternative to the United Nations, but its purpose, powers, and structure remain vague.
Headlines that a permanent seat would cost $1 billion sparked outrage, and the White House’s reply reframed it as a vague “demonstration of commitment,” making the setup look like pay-to-play membership.
Many see the move as more spectacle and branding than a serious diplomatic institution, with skepticism about replacing established bodies like the UN or NATO.