Astral Codex Ten $10 / month

Astral Codex Ten delves into a wide array of subjects, including the scrutinization of conspiracy theories, expert predictions on global catastrophes, the intersection of transgender health issues with genetics, current events, long COVID research, quirky global occurrences, AI in forecasting, and book reviews. It focuses on critical analysis, scientific skepticism, and forecasting accuracy.

Conspiracy Theories Global Catastrophes Transgender Health Current Events Long COVID Quirky Global Occurrences Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Book Reviews

Top posts of the year

And their main takeaways

Mantic Monday: Judgment Day

13283 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Democracy Political Climate Foreign Policy
  1. Elections can feel like a wild rollercoaster ride, creating a lot of anxiety and drama for everyone involved. Many people are so tense about the outcomes that it can affect their mental health.
  2. Prediction markets offer a way for people to bet on outcomes, but they can be unreliable. Sometimes, one big bet can skew results, leading to people misinterpreting the chances of candidates.
  3. In the end, elections are more than just picking leaders; they're a moment where everyone feels the weight of the future. It's a reminder of our shared hopes and fears, no matter our backgrounds.

Links For November 2024

12664 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Legislation Political parties Public Opinion Campaigns
  1. Ancient Chinese customs included burying people with passports for the afterlife. This practice was believed to help them gain entry into the underworld.
  2. A new drug for schizophrenia is approved, showing promise for fewer side effects and better treatment for negative symptoms, but it has a high starting price.
  3. Recent studies show that teaching experience may not be as important as previously thought, as using less experienced teachers can lead to worse student performance.

The Innocent And The Beautiful Have No Enemy But Time

12526 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
📚 Literature Poetry Essays Fiction Philosophy Criticism
  1. Time is the only true enemy of those who are innocent and beautiful. It can take away love and youth.
  2. Embracing simplicity and purity brings happiness, even if it seems fragile. Pure intentions often face challenges.
  3. Beauty and innocence should be cherished, as they stand out in a complex world. They may be vulnerable, but they are worth protecting.

P-Zombies Would Report Qualia

12457 implied HN points • 10 Jun 25
📖 Philosophy Consciousness Metaphysics Cognitive Science Ethics
  1. The concept of philosophical zombies, or p-zombies, refers to beings that appear normal but lack consciousness. This brings up questions about whether they can still report their experiences without actually experiencing them.
  2. There's an argument about whether p-zombies could describe their perceptions as humans do. They might give answers that sound similar to human experiences, but the question remains whether that means they truly have those experiences.
  3. This discussion challenges our understanding of consciousness and qualia, suggesting that one could talk about experiences without having real feelings or awareness. It raises questions about how we perceive and talk about our own consciousness.

SB 1047: Our Side Of The Story

12182 implied HN points • 10 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Policy Government Political parties Activism
  1. SB 1047 was a California bill aimed at regulating AI to prevent catastrophic risks from AI technology. It gained support from various influencers and organizations but was eventually vetoed by Governor Newsom.
  2. The bill had strong public backing, with many Californians, including a significant portion of the legislature, in favor of AI regulation. Despite this support, some powerful opponents, including major AI companies and political figures, successfully pushed against it.
  3. The veto has sparked different strategies among supporters of the bill, with some suggesting a broader coalition to pursue future regulatory efforts. They believe that public concerns about AI can't be ignored and regulation is coming, albeit potentially in a more aggressive form.
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Indulge Your Internet Addiction By Reading About Internet Addiction

11769 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
🎭️ Culture Internet culture Addiction Family Dynamics Mental health Surveys
  1. Many people consider themselves addicted to the internet, and the more time they spend online, the more likely they are to perceive their usage as an addiction. On average, self-reported addicts spend more time online each day.
  2. There is a negative link between internet addiction and life satisfaction. Those who consider themselves more addicted tend to report lower happiness levels.
  3. Parents who restrict their children's internet use when they are young may help reduce the chance of their kids becoming internet addicts as adults. This suggests that early internet habits can influence future behaviors.

Deliberative Alignment, And The Spec

11149 implied HN points • 12 Feb 25
🕹 Technology AI Ethics Machine Learning Computer Science Tech governance Human-computer interaction
  1. Deliberative alignment is a new method for teaching AI to think about moral choices before making decisions. It creates better AI by having it reflect on its values and learn from its own reasoning.
  2. The model specification is important because it defines the values that AI should follow. As AI becomes more influential in society, having a clear set of values will become crucial for safety and ethics.
  3. The chain of command for AI may include different possible priorities, such as government authority, company interests, or even moral laws. How this is set will impact how AI behaves and who it ultimately serves.

Highlights From The Comments On Lynn And IQ

10668 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
🔬 Science Psychology Education Sociology Cultural Studies
  1. IQ tests may not accurately reflect a person's real-life intelligence, especially in very under-educated populations. Many factors, like lack of exposure to education, can affect test performance.
  2. Data from reliable and different sources, like World Bank statistics, often support the findings on national IQs. This suggests that there might be underlying patterns in intelligence across different countries.
  3. There's a complex relationship between IQ and practical skills. Just because someone scores low on an IQ test, it doesn't mean they're incapable in practical situations, like farming.

AI Art Turing Test

10048 implied HN points • 14 Oct 24
🎨 Art & Illustration Digital Art AI Art Visual Culture Art Criticism Interactive art
  1. There's an AI Art Turing Test happening, which is a fun way to see if you can tell the difference between AI-generated art and human-made art.
  2. Participants can take part by filling out a form, which takes about twenty minutes, and the results will be shared the following week.
  3. Don't peek at the comments until you're done with the test, as they might give away answers.

Book Review Contest 2024 Winners

8947 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
📚 Literature Book Reviews Writing Awards Creative Writing
  1. The winners of the 2024 Book Review Contest have been announced, with AmandaFromBethlehem taking first place. She received $2,500 for her review of 'Two Arms And A Head'.
  2. A variety of interesting books were reviewed by participants, showcasing unique perspectives and diverse interests. Some other notable reviews included titles like 'Nine Lives' by David Matolcsi and 'How The War Was Won' by Jack Thorlin.
  3. All winners and finalists earn a free subscription and the chance to pitch essay ideas for potential publication. There are suggestions for future contests to change the format or even skip a year to allow participants more reading time.

The Case Against California Proposition 36

8603 implied HN points • 29 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Policy Reform Criminal Justice Drug policy
  1. Proposition 36 would increase penalties for certain drug and theft crimes, but tough sentences don't actually lower drug use or reduce crime rates. It's important to focus on better treatment options instead of just harsher punishments.
  2. The law proposes a new 'treatment-mandated felony' but lacks funding for adequate treatment facilities. California desperately needs more treatment beds to help those struggling with addiction.
  3. Shoplifting rates are rising, but it's not just because of previous laws like Prop 47. Focusing on smarter policing and addressing the root causes of crime is more effective than simply increasing penalties.

Ask Me Anything (2/2025)

7433 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🎭️ Culture Psychology Society Communication Art Philosophy
  1. Subscribers can ask questions during the AMA, but only they can comment on the responses. It's a way to engage the paid supporters more directly.
  2. Some questions won't be answered, like those asking for medical advice or trying to get a controversial statement. It's about keeping it respectful and on topic.
  3. The host plans to keep up with questions until they feel like stopping, so there's a willingness to engage as long as it's productive.

Take The 2025 ACX Survey

7157 implied HN points • 20 Dec 24
🚌 Education Surveys Psychology Research Findings Incentives
  1. There's a reader survey available that helps understand who reads the blog and explore psychological findings. It's like a fun way to learn more about people's interests.
  2. Taking the survey will take around 20 to 30 minutes, and participants have a chance to win a free one-year subscription. It's a nice incentive to get more people involved.
  3. The survey closes on January 5, so it's important to fill it out before then to make your voice heard.

Open Thread 366

7089 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
🕹 Technology AI Media Consulting Forecasting Education
  1. Anyone can share thoughts or ask questions in the open thread. It's a space for discussing anything on your mind.
  2. There are opportunities for people interested in AI safety, including a course that can help you get started in the field.
  3. An AI forecasting project is looking for news outlets to publish articles on future predictions about AI advancements.

Can You Hate Everyone In Rome?

7020 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
📖 Philosophy Ethics Existentialism Logic Metaphysics Political theory
  1. It's possible to feel a strong dislike for a whole group of people in a certain place. This often happens when we don't connect with others' beliefs or actions.
  2. People can feel frustrated with societal norms and expectations, leading to a sense of isolation. This happens when individuals feel out of place among the crowd.
  3. Understanding and empathy can help bridge these feelings of alienation. Finding common ground with others can ease negative feelings.

Mostleastremarkablegate And The Nature Of Online Harassment

6469 implied HN points • 15 Oct 24
🎭️ Culture Online behavior Social media Digital ethics Public Discourse
  1. Online harassment can take many forms and often feels overwhelming. It's important to recognize its impact on individuals.
  2. Communication and understanding are key in addressing these issues. Talking openly about experiences can help build a supportive community.
  3. Everyone can play a role in reducing online harassment. Being respectful and standing up for others can make a difference.

Subscrive Drive 2025 + Free Unlocked Posts

6400 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💼 Business Subscriptions Finance Marketing Media Economics
  1. You can subscribe to Astral Codex Ten for paid access, which includes extra articles and special threads for subscribers. It's a chance to support the blog and get more content.
  2. The blog had strong subscriber growth at first but has seen a drop in recent years. The author encourages financial support but understands if people cannot afford it.
  3. Several subscriber-only posts offer unique insights, covering topics like historical figures and personal reflections. When you subscribe, you can access a lot of great content.

Open Thread 356

5712 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
📖 Philosophy Ethics Logic Metaphysics Social Political
  1. The open thread allows people to discuss anything and ask questions freely. It's a space for sharing ideas and engaging with others.
  2. Comments from the community can provide new insights into historical topics, like the early Christian views on abortion and marriage. This shows how understanding can evolve with discussion.
  3. Game theory continues to evolve, with strategies like Win-Stay, Lose-Shift gaining attention for their effectiveness in cooperation compared to older strategies like Tit-for-Tat. It's interesting to see how competition shapes these strategies in different contexts.

Open Thread 359

5024 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
📖 Philosophy Ethics Charity Community Debate Rationalism
  1. You can participate in an open thread where you can share thoughts or ask questions. It's a great way to connect and engage in discussions.
  2. There are charities you can support that directly help people, like GiveDirectly which gives cash to poor families in Africa. Supporting effective charities can make a real difference.
  3. Lightcone supports the rationalist community and works on infrastructure for online platforms. Donating can help continue their valuable work and make improvements for events and resources.

Open Thread 360

4955 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
🎭️ Culture Community Discussion Social Personal Events
  1. You can talk about anything and ask questions in the open thread. It's a space for sharing thoughts and connecting with others.
  2. There's a survey for people who consider themselves effective altruists to participate in. It's a way to share insights about giving and doing good.
  3. A new post will be shared for subscribers, celebrating the author's children turning one. It likely includes reflections on parenting and life.

Choose Nonbook Review Finalists 2025

4611 implied HN points • 03 Jun 25
📚 Literature Books Reviews Writing Reading Criticism
  1. There are 141 entries for a Non-Book Review Contest that need to be narrowed down to about a dozen finalists. Everyone is encouraged to help out by reading and rating these entries.
  2. You should try to read different reviews randomly to get a fair spread of votes. If you read them in order, early reviews might get too many votes compared to the later ones.
  3. The voting deadline is June 20, and the finalists will be announced after counting the votes. So make sure to participate before then!

Open Thread 363

4542 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🎭️ Culture Community Mental health Writing Social media Discussion
  1. You can share anything you'd like in the open thread. This is a space for questions and discussions about various topics.
  2. There's a survey available for feedback that closes soon, so make sure to participate if you want your voice heard.
  3. The blog recommendations have been updated for the New Year, focusing on new writers and changing recommendations yearly.

Game Theory For Michigan Muslims

4404 implied HN points • 08 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Political Behavior Political theory Public Opinion
  1. Sometimes people vote for a worse candidate because they want to send a message to a better one. This creates a tricky situation in politics.
  2. Voting can involve strategy, where people's choices may not just reflect who they like best. They might choose based on tactics to influence future outcomes.
  3. In communities like Michigan's Muslim population, collective voting decisions can show how groups weigh risks versus rewards when choosing candidates. This highlights their unique political dynamics.

Open Thread 361

4336 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
🎭️ Culture Community Discussion Social Holidays Surveys
  1. You can share or discuss anything you like in the open thread. It's a space to ask questions and engage with others.
  2. There’s a survey for the community that you can fill out. The deadline is January 5, and reminders will keep coming until then.
  3. Happy holidays! Expect fewer posts until January, as the posting schedule will be lighter during this time.

ACX Local Voting Guides

4198 implied HN points • 22 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Voting Local Politics Political parties
  1. Local voting guides are available for various cities, helping voters understand their options. Each city offers unique insights and recommendations based on local issues.
  2. Cities like Austin and Boston have put a lot of thought into their guides, even discussing candidates who may not fit typical party lines. This can help voters make better choices.
  3. Voting decisions can be influenced by community discussions and guides, highlighting important issues and candidate positions in a way that's easy to digest.

Try The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest

3854 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🔬 Science Forecasting Predictions Technology Research Competition
  1. The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest is now open for predictions. It's a great opportunity for anyone interested to share their forecasts on various topics.
  2. This year, there are new forecasting bots participating, and it'll be exciting to see how they compare to top human forecasters. The contest wants to explore how well these bots can predict outcomes.
  3. The questions this year are designed to be interesting and relevant, so many people can take part. The contest aims to engage everyone's thoughts on important issues.

Open Thread 357

3510 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🎭️ Culture Community Rituals Discussion Events Social
  1. You can ask any questions and share thoughts in the open thread. It's a space for casual discussions.
  2. There will be meetups around the world for the community, including a big event in New York from December 13-16.
  3. Acknowledgment of a sad news about Nikolas Doucet, which reflects the importance of community support during tough times.

Open Thread 362

3303 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
📚 Literature Writing Books Authors Reviews Essays
  1. This is a space for open discussions where you can share anything or ask questions. It's great for connecting with others about various topics.
  2. Jimmy Carter, the former president, has passed away, and there was a biography about him that many people found interesting.
  3. Happy New Year to everyone! Regular updates and posts will be coming back soon.

Open Thread 368

2959 implied HN points • 10 Feb 25
🕹 Technology AI safety Philanthropy Meetups
  1. A biotech company called MiniCircle had mixed research results on a new technology. While there are some positive findings, the effects are much weaker than needed, and more careful testing is required.
  2. Open Philanthropy plans to give out $40 million for AI safety research. They're looking for new ideas in areas like control and generalization, and people can apply for funding.
  3. Students at the University of Chicago have started a rationalist reading and meetup group. They invite anyone interested to join and connect with others who share similar interests.

Open Thread 365

2890 implied HN points • 20 Jan 25
🎭️ Culture Humor Community Discussion Social media Events
  1. You can participate in discussions on various topics in the open thread. Feel free to ask questions or share ideas.
  2. There is a remote job opportunity for contractors in AI-related fields with flexible hours. You can earn $100 per hour while helping measure performance between AI and humans.
  3. Additional comments and discussions are available on a range of topics including national IQ, political party systems, and cultural insights. It's a chance to learn from different perspectives.

Open Thread 353

2821 implied HN points • 28 Oct 24
🎭️ Culture Community Discussion Events Social media Learning
  1. People are questioning the optimism around solar power's future, showing that not everyone agrees on its potential. This discussion is happening after a recent conference.
  2. There's a bootcamp for learning about quantitative trading happening soon, but it's not designed to make you rich or improve job prospects in that field. It's more for those who just want to learn out of interest.
  3. The host is planning to limit advertising for events unless they're really important. This is to keep things focused and avoid overwhelming everyone with promotions.

Open Thread 354

2615 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Law enforcement Crime Policy Political Opinions Community Engagement Justice System
  1. You can talk about anything you want in this open thread, like asking questions or sharing ideas. It's a space where people can engage freely.
  2. A commenter points out that the current punishment for shoplifting isn’t being enforced well, which leads to confusion about law enforcement practices. It seems tough laws are in place, but they aren’t effectively used.
  3. There are discussions around political opinions, including some responses to a post about Trump. People are sharing various viewpoints on political endorsements and policies.

Open Thread 364

2615 implied HN points • 13 Jan 25
🎭️ Culture Community Discussion Social media Online Platforms Substack
  1. This is an open thread where you can talk about anything. Feel free to ask questions or share random thoughts.
  2. There are online communities like a subreddit and Discord where you can connect with others. These platforms help create a sense of community.
  3. Most of the content is free, but there's a small portion that requires a subscription. You can choose to support it if you enjoy the content.

Open Thread 358

2546 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
🎭️ Culture Community Discussion Entertainment Social media Events
  1. The open thread is a place for anyone to talk about anything and ask questions. It's like a casual chat room.
  2. There's a community with a subreddit and Discord for extra discussions. People can meet in person too!
  3. A company called ValueBase is hiring software engineers, offering a chance to work in land valuation.

Open Thread 352

2408 implied HN points • 21 Oct 24
🕹 Technology AI Conferences Community Networking
  1. You can join weekly open threads to discuss anything or ask questions. It's a great way to interact with others.
  2. There are various events and conferences coming up that focus on AI and social skills, which you might find interesting.
  3. If you entered a book review contest, make sure to check if you've received your prize. Email if you think you missed out.

Open Thread 385

2408 implied HN points • 09 Jun 25
🎭️ Culture Art Literature Philosophy Community Discussion
  1. This is an open thread where you can talk about anything and ask any questions. It's a space for free discussion and sharing ideas.
  2. There are unofficial groups like a subreddit and a Discord for more focused discussions. You can connect with others interested in similar topics there.
  3. Some reviews are highlighted for voting fairness. If you want to support a particular review, you can check them out and vote.

Berkeley Meetup This Wednesday

2133 implied HN points • 03 Jun 25
🎭️ Culture Community events Meetups Social gatherings Networking
  1. There is a meetup happening in Berkeley on June 4 at 6:30 PM. It's a great chance to connect with others in the community.
  2. Anyone is welcome to join, even if you're feeling shy or don't think you fit in. It's all about meeting new people and having fun.
  3. Some special guests may attend, making it a unique opportunity to meet interesting individuals from out of town.