Astral Codex Ten $10 / month

Astral Codex Ten delves into a wide array of subjects, including the scrutinization of conspiracy theories, expert predictions on global catastrophes, the intersection of transgender health issues with genetics, current events, long COVID research, quirky global occurrences, AI in forecasting, and book reviews. It focuses on critical analysis, scientific skepticism, and forecasting accuracy.

Conspiracy Theories Global Catastrophes Transgender Health Current Events Long COVID Quirky Global Occurrences Artificial Intelligence Forecasting Book Reviews

Top posts of the year

And their main takeaways

Open Thread 312

4404 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
🚌 Education Online community Moderation
  1. This is a weekly open thread for all topics and questions.
  2. Collaborator sought for a study on Bayesian updating and precision weighting.
  3. Moderation update with a list of banned users.

Mantic Monday 3/11/24

4336 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Artificial Intelligence Cryptocurrency Prediction Markets AI Ethics
  1. Academic teams are working on fine-tuning AIs for better predictions, competing with the wisdom of crowds.
  2. The use of multiple AI models and aggregating predictions may be as effective as human crowdsourced predictions.
  3. Superforecasters' perspectives on AI risks differ based on the pace of AI advancement, showcasing varied opinions within expert communities.

Open Thread 319

3166 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
🚌 Education Discussion Contest Opportunity
  1. Updates on the 2023 Forecasting Contest were shared, including progress on showing everyone's score, correction on commenter performance, potential prize donation, and interactive analyses by Jordan Breffle.
  2. A comment on race and lived experience sparked discussion on Roma heritage and the challenges faced by different groups, revealing complexities in language and identity.
  3. The Center for Effective Altruism is seeking a new head of communications, offering a significant remote position with a salary up to mid-6-figures.

Open Thread 314

3097 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
🚌 Education Articles
  1. Weekly visible open thread for posting anything.
  2. Clarifications on prediction markets and schizophrenia genetics.
  3. Announcement of new subscriber-only post about Democratic Socialists' budget crisis.

Open Thread 320

2821 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
🕹 Technology Community Contest AI Research Poetry
  1. The 2023 Forecasting Contest winners were determined with an ambiguous scoring criteria, resulting in a few surprise winners
  2. The ACX Grants impact market has received 53 proposals, including projects such as growing blood vessels in the lab and a swarm of robotic bees
  3. A Reddit thread discussing an AI-generated reading of a poem from ACX highlights the speculation around AI involvement in online discussions
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Open Thread 315

2615 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🚌 Education
  1. The post is about an open thread where people can discuss different topics freely.
  2. There is information about ACX Grants projects and a request for legal help with charity and tax deductions.
  3. The post mentions links to related channels like a subreddit, Discord, bulletin board, and in-person meetups.

Open Thread 317

2340 implied HN points • 26 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Social media AI Data
  1. Some users who were supposed to be unbanned were not truly unbanned, leading to a need for them to reach out to get it fixed.
  2. Substack acknowledges issues with page and comment loading speed, with plans to improve that in the future.
  3. GPT-6's training might require only 0.1% of the world's computers, according to Ben Todd's findings, a significant discrepancy from previous estimations.

Open Thread 316

2271 implied HN points • 19 Feb 24
🕹 Technology Community Grants Research Contest AI safety
  1. ACX provides an open thread for weekly discussions where users can post anything, ask questions, and engage in various topics.
  2. ACX Grants project includes initiatives like exploring a mutation to turn off suffering and opportunities for researchers in AI safety.
  3. ACX mentions upcoming events like a book review contest with updated rules and a pushed back due date.

Open Thread 313

2202 implied HN points • 29 Jan 24
🔬 Science Research Genetics Psychology Fiction Education
  1. Genes matter 2x as much as the environment in schizophrenia, not 4x as previously thought
  2. A study on political reasoning errors failed to replicate, questioning a larger literature on the topic
  3. Humans merging with AI may not be unprecedented, as evidenced by a medieval Italian man merging with a knife

ACX Grants Followup Impact Market

1858 implied HN points • 07 Mar 24
💼 Business Grants Investment Charity Philanthropy Finance
  1. ACX Grants involves an impact market where investors crowdfund grant proposals with potential for big profits if successful.
  2. Only 44 out of approximately 140 qualified participants have signed up for the impact market so far, with a different approach allowing non-accredited investors to participate.
  3. Investing in impact certificates through this system has risks like potential project failure, but also benefits such as tax deductibility.

Open Thread 318

1858 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
🚌 Education Discussion
  1. This post is part of a weekly open thread where users can share and discuss various topics.
  2. Manifold Markets is hosting a prediction market conference called Manifest, scheduled for June 7 to 9th, with early bird tickets available at $499.
  3. Jessica Ocean from the PsychCrisis blog has shared interesting insights on Proposition 1 regarding mental health funding in the California primary.

Hidden Open Thread 309.5

1101 implied HN points • 06 Jan 24
🚌 Education
  1. It is a paid post for subscribers only.
  2. The content is from astralcodexten.com.
  3. There are options to subscribe or sign in if you are a paid subscriber.

Hidden Open Thread 311.5

757 implied HN points • 19 Jan 24
🚌 Education Blogging
  1. The post 'Hidden Open Thread 311.5' is intended for paid subscribers only.
  2. The article was published on January 19, 2024.
  3. To access the full content, users need to subscribe to Astral Codex Ten.

Hidden Open Thread 310.5

619 implied HN points • 11 Jan 24
🚌 Education
  1. The post 'Hidden Open Thread 310.5' is for paid subscribers only.
  2. The post was published on January 11, 2024.
  3. The post has a link to comments section, but requires a subscription to access.

Hidden Open Thread 315.5

344 implied HN points • 17 Feb 24
🚌 Education Blog
  1. The post is exclusive for paid subscribers, indicating it contains premium content for a specific audience.
  2. Readers can subscribe to access the post or sign in if they are already paid subscribers.
  3. The post shares a link and encourages engagement by allowing sharing and comments.

Hidden Open Thread 312.5

344 implied HN points • 26 Jan 24
🚌 Education
  1. The post is for paid subscribers only
  2. The post is from January 26, 2024
  3. There is a link to subscribe for access to the post