The hottest Speculation Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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The Three Types of Money Behind Silicon Valley's Rise to Dominance

The Future, Now and Then • 110 implied HN points • 25 Feb 25
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Speculation Economic Theory Venture Capital
  1. Silicon Valley's success relies on three types of money: government contracts, product revenues, and speculative investments. Each plays a different role in funding and shaping tech companies.
  2. Many tech stocks are driven by 'vibes' rather than actual profits. This means their value can fluctuate wildly based on investor sentiment instead of real financial performance.
  3. When speculative finance overshadows the real production of goods and services, it can lead to an unstable economy. Companies need a balance of funding sources to grow healthily and sustainably.

Your memecoin is your slush fund

Noahpinion • 25529 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
🔮 Crypto Digital Assets Speculation Market Trends Regulation Investment Strategies
  1. Memecoins like TRUMP and MELANIA are seen as a way to make money without the usual transactions. They can allow people to support political figures while avoiding direct payments.
  2. These coins do not have the same respect as traditional cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Many believe they could harm the overall reputation of crypto, as they mainly serve speculative purposes.
  3. Buying these memecoins could be a form of legal corruption, allowing individuals to give money to leaders or celebrities while disguising the true nature of the transaction, similar to a bribe.

Bitcoin is worth $100,000. It still doesn't have a single legitimate use case

The Future, Now and Then • 515 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
🔮 Crypto Bitcoin Speculation Investment Regulation Market Trends
  1. Bitcoin is currently priced at $100,000, but it doesn't have any real-world use that justifies that value. It's mainly driven by speculation.
  2. The recent price increase is largely due to wealthy investors betting on Bitcoin, rather than any fundamental economic demand or function.
  3. The cryptocurrency market is being influenced by big players and political backing, making it more about speculation rather than actual utility.

Beijing's Bubble Bursts Part 2

Diane Francis • 1378 implied HN points • 05 Feb 24
💰 Finance Debt crisis Real Estate Global Economy Investment Speculation
  1. China's real estate bubble has created massive debt, making it harder for local governments to provide services. Many places have empty buildings while local debts soar.
  2. The Belt and Road Initiative has turned into a huge financial burden for China, with many countries unable to repay the loans. This has led to China becoming the biggest debt collector globally.
  3. China's gambling-like approach to its economy is hurting its growth and reputation. With a lot of speculation and risk-taking, its future outlook looks uncertain.

Behold The Era Of Fartcoin’s Majesty

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 47 implied HN points • 07 Jan 25
💰 Finance Cryptocurrency Market Trends Economics Investment Speculation
  1. Fartcoin, a joke cryptocurrency, has become surprisingly valuable despite having no real use or worth. It suggests that many current investments are just speculative bets.
  2. The rise of Fartcoin reflects extreme risky behavior in investing, turning financial markets into a sort of gambling game where people chase quick profits without understanding the risks.
  3. The situation hints at deeper issues in the economy, where excessive money printing and lack of market discipline could lead to a significant crash or a loss of confidence in financial systems.
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All These Things That I Have Longed

Malt Liquidity • 17 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
💰 Finance Market Trends Investment Strategies Economic Analysis Speculation
  1. Markets are changing rapidly, and many people seem confused about their movements. This uncertainty can affect how prices are set.
  2. Information processing is key to trading today. Knowing how to filter through news and social media can give a trader an advantage.
  3. There is a growing concern that technology might soon outpace human intuition in trading. If everyone relies on AI, we might lose our ability to think critically about market dynamics.

Jumping the Shark

The Last Bear Standing • 55 implied HN points • 29 Nov 24
💰 Finance Stock Market Investments Cryptocurrency Speculation Economic Trends
  1. The stock market is moving up quickly, with some stocks seeing huge gains in just a short time. It feels like the excitement from early 2021 is returning.
  2. Investors are showing great interest in areas like cryptocurrencies and quantum computing, leading to sudden spikes in these stocks. This might remind people of past market trends.
  3. There's a sense of irrational confidence in some investments, which can lead to risky behavior. The market is moving in unpredictable ways, and that's something to watch closely.

Wartime vs Peacetime Markets

DeFi Education • 1678 implied HN points • 13 May 22
💰 Finance Investing Market Trends Economic Analysis Speculation
  1. Wartime markets involve high uncertainty and crisis, while peacetime markets are steadier and more stable. Investors often react differently in these two types of markets.
  2. In wartime markets, risk and volatility increase, leading to caution in investment strategies. People may prioritize safety over growth during uncertain times.
  3. Peacetime markets typically see growth and optimism, making it easier for tech and other sectors to thrive. Investors tend to take more risks when the market conditions are favorable.

STORIES WE TELL OURSELVES - PART II – THE MISSISSIPPI SCHEME 1716-1721 (A TALE IN FIVE CHAPTERS)

Reflections on "Going Down Tobacco Road" and Investing • 176 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
💾 History Economics Speculation France Investment
  1. The story is about the Mississippi Scheme in 1716-1721 and the madness of crowds.
  2. John Law, an economist, proposed paper money and a bank that led to a speculative frenzy.
  3. The frenzy resulted in a booming stock market, with individuals from all social classes participating in the speculation.

Your Guide To Bull Market Pain Levels

The Lund Loop • 78 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
💰 Finance Investing Stock Market Risk management Financial planning Speculation
  1. Investors experience different levels of pain in a bull market, ranging from mild discomfort to severe distress.
  2. The Pain Assessment Scale categorizes bull market pain into three main levels: Pain Free, Mild Pain, Moderate Pain, and Severe Pain.
  3. Addressing issues like position sizing, risk management, and speculation can help alleviate bull market pain. Seeking help from a financial planner is advisable if symptoms persist or worsen.

Neologisms

johan’s substack • 19 implied HN points • 02 Jun 24
🕹 Technology AI Language Models Speculation Machine Learning
  1. Exploring neologisms can reveal insights into AI models and their inner workings.
  2. Speculative neologisms can provide a framework for understanding how AI processes information and feelings.
  3. Using neologisms can help simulate and investigate complex behaviors in AI models and uncover hidden structures.

DeFi Builders and Speculators: A Symbiotic Relationship

DeFi Education • 759 implied HN points • 25 Nov 21
🔮 Crypto Blockchain DeFi Speculation Investing Finance
  1. Builders and speculators in DeFi work together and rely on each other. Builders create the tools and platforms while speculators provide the necessary activity and liquidity.
  2. Speculators play a big role in DeFi by driving trading and usage, making them crucial for the ecosystem's growth. Their activities generate revenue that helps fund further development.
  3. The future of DeFi is bright, as it serves as the foundation for financial systems. Speculation will likely continue to be a part of it, but utility and real-world assets will also play a bigger role.

A Right Royal Mystery

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 37 implied HN points • 13 Mar 24
📰 News Royal Family Speculation Media influence Mystery
  1. Princess Kate has been out of the public eye for almost two months, sparking speculation and concern
  2. An image of Kate with her children posted on social media was criticized for being doctored, leading to even more scrutiny
  3. The situation has prompted online sleuths and news outlets to delve into the mystery surrounding Kate's absence and the authenticity of the shared image

Most Dismal Swamp: MUSH

Do Not Research • 39 implied HN points • 16 Oct 22
🎨 Art & Illustration Speculation Fiction Performance
  1. The term MUSH (Multi-User Shared Hallucination) originated in online text-based role-playing games. It reflects communal investment and social codes that create an immersive virtual space distinct from the real world.
  2. Most Dismal Swamp explores community-building in online and offline spaces, delving into encrypted cultures and the challenges of maintaining communities in digitally mediated environments.
  3. Most Dismal Swamp is a diverse art project operating as a model for collaborative speculation. It uses the concept of swamps to navigate the complexities and blurred boundaries of our mixed reality paradigm.

From oil price speculation to higher inflation?

Klement on Investing • 6 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
💰 Finance Economics Markets Inflation Oil Speculation
  1. Speculators in commodity futures markets may increase price volatility but do not have a significant long-term impact on price levels.
  2. Rise in oil prices in 2021 and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was a key driver of inflation spike in 2022 and 2023.
  3. Study suggests that oil price spike was partially due to excessive speculation by oil traders, which in turn contributed to an increase in US inflation.

Why I cannot stand George Soros!

Musings on Markets • 0 implied HN points • 05 Mar 09
💰 Finance Investing Speculation Regulation Markets Economics Investing Speculation Market Analysis Risk management Economic Theory
  1. George Soros is viewed as a lucky speculator rather than a great investor, as he made big profits from a couple of fortunate bets.
  2. The author believes Soros should not offer moral lessons, especially since his success comes from speculation rather than hard work.
  3. Many successful investors are often just lucky, and we shouldn't assume they know more than we do about investing.