The hottest Corporate Finance Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
Category
Top Finance Topics

The Great Software Repricing: A Framework

Enterprise AI Trends • 105 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Investors are re‑rating SaaS because revenue is becoming less predictable — usage‑based and AI‑agent pricing make earnings lumpier, so multiples can fall even if revenues rise.
  2. AI is changing the core value of traditional software: companies must shift from passive systems of record to active systems of action, and it’s unclear if those new models will be profitable or keep the same market size.
  3. The real bottleneck is hardware and demand uncertainty, not software supply, so worries about seat losses and customer need are driving a broad repricing of software valuations.

Data Update 1 for 2024: The Data Speaks, but what is it saying?

Musings on Markets • 1099 implied HN points • 05 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. All companies are included in data analysis to get a full picture, not just big ones. This helps avoid bias and shows a more accurate view of industries.
  2. The data covers many financial variables that help understand company decisions about investment, financing, and dividends. It also uses unique ways to calculate statistics for more accurate insights.
  3. The statistics are updated regularly to reflect the latest available information. Users should utilize the data wisely and be aware of any changes in accounting standards or currency issues.

CROSSPOST: NOAH SMITH: The AI Bust Scenario That No One Is Talking About

Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality • 169 implied HN points • 09 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Corporate Finance
  1. AI could be widely useful but still be a low-profit industry, with most of the value flowing to downstream complementors and users rather than to model makers or operators.
  2. Huge, debt-fueled data-center buildouts risk a finance-driven bust if the economic returns take many years to materialize, even if the technology itself keeps improving.
  3. A total technological flop like VR is unlikely given rapid adoption, but big incumbent platforms can block rivals by giving good-enough AI features away for free, preventing startups from capturing big rents.

The Bear Cave #286

The Bear Cave • 653 implied HN points • 10 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Recent reports have raised serious concerns about companies like Marex Group and Collective Mining, suggesting they might be involved in fraud or mismanagement.
  2. A number of high-level executives, including CFOs, have recently resigned from several companies, which could indicate instability or deeper issues within those organizations.
  3. There is increasing scrutiny on U.S.-listed Chinese companies for potential fraud, and a new site has been launched to expose these stock promotion schemes.

Stock Buybacks Explained

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 399 implied HN points • 04 Apr 24
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Stock buybacks happen when a company uses its extra cash to buy back its own shares. This can make the remaining shares more valuable by increasing earnings per share.
  2. Buybacks can be good for investors, as they might boost stock prices without having to pay taxes on dividends right away. However, critics say companies should focus on growth and investment instead.
  3. There are downsides to buybacks too. Sometimes, management might use them to inflate their bonuses, or they might buy back shares at the wrong time, leading to poor long-term results.
Get a weekly roundup of the best Substack posts, by hacker news affinity:

Secular vs Cyclical: Why it’s hard to tell in real time, and what the EV write-down wave reveals

Gad’s Newsletter • 20 implied HN points • 16 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Corporate Finance
  1. It’s very difficult to tell in real time if a change is secular or cyclical because data are noisy, trend-cycle methods are model-dependent, and endpoint uncertainty makes conclusions fragile.
  2. The EV episode shows the direction is likely secular (battery costs and adoption tend to rise) but the speed is cyclical and policy-sensitive, and treating near-term pace as linear led to huge write-downs and competitive losses.
  3. The practical fix is disciplined triangulation and decision design: separate direction from speed, check cross-sections and policy regimes, treat impairments as stress tests, and prefer staged, flexible investments that preserve optionality.

The Netflix Identity Crisis

Spilled Coffee • 44 implied HN points • 28 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Netflix’s fundamentals look very strong: revenue has climbed from about $20B to $45B, operating income surged to roughly $13B, and free cash flow turned positive near $9B.
  2. Despite those gains the stock is about 36% below its 52-week high and trades near $85, which suggests a disconnect between price and business performance.
  3. Investors remain cautious and are holding off buying for now; many want a lower share price or a clearer catalyst before committing.

This Is What It Looks Like When Shit Hits The Fan

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 105 implied HN points • 17 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. A major financier walking away from a $10bn Oracle data‑centre deal signals that the economics of hyperscale AI build‑outs are getting harder to justify and the margin for error is shrinking.
  2. The AI infrastructure boom is increasingly debt‑ and leverage‑driven rather than self‑funded, with rising credit spreads and tighter lender terms suggesting cash flow may not cover the planned capex.
  3. That kind of pullback can rapidly shift market psychology from complacency to risk reduction, making a leverage‑heavy, high‑capex setup fragile and prone to a sudden unraveling.

Data Update 3 for 2024: A Rule-breaking Year for Interest Rates

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 25 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Interest rates in 2023 showed little change, challenging the idea that the Fed is solely responsible for their movements. It's more about market dynamics and inflation.
  2. An inverted yield curve has traditionally been seen as a warning sign for recessions, but recent events in 2023 suggest it isn't always accurate. The economy remained stable despite the inversion.
  3. Looking forward, inflation will play a key role in determining interest rates in 2024. If inflation continues to drop, long-term rates might go down too.

Cigna Healthcare said it will buy back $11.3 billion of its own shares of stock. That announcement made the company's CEO and other investors much richer.

HEALTH CARE un-covered • 759 implied HN points • 18 Dec 23
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Cigna Healthcare plans to buy back $11.3 billion of its own stock, making its CEO and investors much wealthier. This move increased the stock price significantly in just one day.
  2. The amount Cigna is spending on stock buybacks is more than many states' entire Medicaid budgets for the year, raising concerns about the priorities of the healthcare system.
  3. Some members of Congress are upset about Cigna's decision, stating it shows how large insurance companies focus on profits instead of improving healthcare for their customers.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 179 implied HN points • 26 May 24
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Companies with high profit margins are doing really well. For example, Nvidia has a gross profit margin of 78%, which is impressive compared to others like Amazon and Apple.
  2. There are good opportunities in the bond market now. After a long time, stocks aren't the only option for investors looking for decent returns.
  3. Amazon is expected to overtake Walmart in sales next year. With Amazon's growth in cloud services, it's on track for $711 billion in revenue, compared to Walmart's $703 billion.

Data Update 5 for 2025: Profitability - The End Game for Business?

Musings on Markets • 479 implied HN points • 31 Jan 24
đź’Ľ Business Corporate Finance
  1. Businesses should focus on profitability as their main goal, not just growth. It's important to make money to cover expenses and create value for the future.
  2. Measuring profitability can be tricky because different measures tell different stories about a company's health. Companies need to be compared properly to understand their true performance.
  3. Most companies struggle to earn profits that exceed their costs of capital, showing it can be tough to succeed in the business world today. Even in a competitive market, many companies fall short.

Data Update 4 for 2024: Risk enters the Equation

Musings on Markets • 479 implied HN points • 28 Jan 24
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Risk is not just a bad thing; it's a mix of danger and opportunity. To succeed, you sometimes need to embrace the right risks instead of avoiding them.
  2. Different types of risks exist, like economic and estimation uncertainties. It's important to identify and categorize them to make better investment decisions.
  3. Risks can vary significantly between companies and countries. Understanding these differences can help investors assess potential returns and make smarter choices.

PacBio Sells Short Read Tech To Illumina

ASeq Newsletter • 21 implied HN points • 02 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Corporate Finance
  1. PacBio sold its short-read sequencing assets to Illumina for about $50M, which is far less than what it paid acquiring Omniome and Apton.
  2. PacBio’s short-read products never gained traction and Onso sales were minimal, and recent layoffs suggest the development teams are largely gone.
  3. The deal only buys PacBio roughly six months of additional runway, and Illumina is likely to hold the IP rather than immediately use it to build new platforms.

Regulatory capture is real

Klement on Investing • 3 implied HN points • 02 Mar 26
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Strong regulation tends to lower company valuations because it raises costs, limits growth, and shields stakeholders other than shareholders.
  2. When companies influence regulators or use the revolving door to place insiders in regulatory roles, they can turn regulation into a barrier to entry that boosts incumbents’ margins and valuations.
  3. Lack of regulation can spur rapid growth but also enables widespread fraud and abuse, highlighting the trade-off between fast innovation and consumer protection.

The AI economy is full of financial gimmicks.

The Future, Now and Then • 309 implied HN points • 05 Aug 25
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. The AI economy is largely filled with financial tricks and gimmicks. Many startup valuations and deals may not reflect true economic value until they produce real products or profits.
  2. Tech and finance are becoming tightly linked, and understanding this connection is essential for journalists. Just like the housing market before the crash, the AI sector has both real growth and bubble-like financial behavior.
  3. It's important to question how much of the reported economic activity in AI is genuine. Many big numbers come from transactions that may not create real wealth, blurring the lines between actual growth and financial gamesmanship.

The Price of Risk: With Equity Risk Premiums, Caveat Emptor!

Musings on Markets • 759 implied HN points • 05 Aug 23
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Equity risk premium (ERP) is the extra return investors expect from risky investments compared to risk-free ones. Understanding this helps investors make better decisions about stocks.
  2. Different methods to measure ERP can give very different results. It's important to understand why and how these estimates change over time.
  3. Using a consistent and logical approach to estimating ERP is crucial for making informed investment choices. Each method has its pros and cons, and what works best may depend on your investment goals.

In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets • 599 implied HN points • 15 Aug 23
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Risk-free investments aren't always truly safe, especially during financial crises. Events like the 2008 crisis showed that even government bonds can carry risk.
  2. Inflation and real interest rates play a big role in determining risk-free rates, meaning they can change based on economic conditions. A higher expected inflation usually leads to higher risk-free rates.
  3. The trust in governments to honor their debt has declined over time, leading to uncertainty about using government bonds as risk-free investments. This loss of trust makes it essential to reassess what we consider safe investments.

A loan offer you can’t refuse

Klement on Investing • 5 implied HN points • 20 Feb 26
đź’Ľ Business Corporate Finance
  1. When a company is downgraded to junk, bank loan availability falls sharply — about a 10% drop in the year after and roughly 30% cumulatively over five years.
  2. That sudden loss of bank financing pushes distressed CEOs and CFOs to seek alternatives, and the chance of mafia infiltration rises by roughly 5% after a downgrade.
  3. Financial distress is a key catalyst for organized‑crime infiltration because banks pull back when firms need money most, leaving a financing gap crime groups can exploit.

How the AI bubble will unfold

Expand Mapping with Mike Morrow • 24 implied HN points • 17 Jan 26
đź’Ľ Business Corporate Finance
  1. Major AI companies are burning huge amounts of cash and are staying private to avoid revealing weak financials, so an IPO could expose losses and trigger a sharp valuation drop.
  2. Training costs are enormous and likely to keep rising as models scale, while inference costs per token may fall but overall expenses can still grow because of bigger, token-hungry models and growing demand.
  3. The likely outcomes are limited: a rare proprietary breakthrough, real financial improvement through monetization and cost cuts (which risks losing users), or an IPO that reveals the losses and pops the bubble.

Microsoft Should Buy Ramp

Alex's Personal Blog • 65 implied HN points • 20 Nov 25
đź’Ľ Business Corporate Finance
  1. Venture capitalists are excited about an increase in startup acquisitions after a recent court ruling favored Meta. This suggests there's a lot of movement happening in buying smaller companies.
  2. Many startups that were stuck without growth now have a chance to find new homes through mergers and acquisitions. This could lead to a healthier market for these companies.
  3. Ramp, a corporate spend management company, is gaining attention for its growth and intelligence capabilities, leading to suggestions that Microsoft should consider acquiring it.

The Decade of Greed

In My Tribe • 470 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
đź’Ľ Business Corporate Finance
  1. The 1980s was known as the 'decade of greed' where corporate competition and higher stock prices became the focus. Companies were often run for personal perks rather than to boost shareholder value.
  2. The leveraged buyout of RJR Nabisco showcased how investment strategies changed, with firms paying high prices for companies, anticipating future profits. This often led to restructuring that wasn't always kind to employees.
  3. Despite concerns about overpaying for stocks and creating economic instability, overall wealth has increased in America since the 1980s. What seemed excessive at the time might now look like a small correction in the grand scheme.

Data Update 1 for 2023: Setting the Table

Musings on Markets • 779 implied HN points • 07 Jan 23
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Having too much data can be overwhelming and lead to distractions. It's important to focus on the most relevant information when making decisions.
  2. Data should not be seen as the only answer; personal judgment and reasoning are essential in analysis. Relying solely on data can hinder good decision-making.
  3. Data can be biased and subjective, even though many think of it as purely objective. It's crucial to be mindful of how data is presented and used.

Financing the AI Boom 2

Net Interest • 14 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Data centers are critical for AI and demand sites built for extreme power and cooling, with strong leasing demand and low customer churn.
  2. Building and running these centers is capital intensive, so companies use asset-backed bonds, large loans, and equity to raise billions and boost valuations.
  3. Investors can gain broad, leveraged exposure to the AI infrastructure boom by buying private equity owners of data centers instead of individual operators, letting them scale using other people’s money.

CoreWeave Is Cracking

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 40 implied HN points • 17 Nov 25
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. CoreWeave seems to be overly reliant on big companies like Nvidia and Microsoft to survive. This support makes its stability questionable.
  2. There are signs of increasing investor fear as CoreWeave's credit risk levels are rising. This could suggest that people are worried about the company's future.
  3. The company's initial success looks shaky, especially after needing help to get its IPO off the ground. This raises doubts about its long-term viability.

Finance 101 for Crypto Degens, Part 1

DeFi Education • 1159 implied HN points • 17 May 22
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. The time value of money means that money now is worth more than money in the future because you can invest it and earn a return. This idea explains why banks charge interest on loans.
  2. Understanding capital structure is important. It distinguishes between the types of capital a company uses, like debt (bonds, loans) and equity (ownership shares), and how these affect the company's value and risk.
  3. Discounted cash flow analysis helps evaluate the value of a business by looking at its expected future cash flows. This method shows how much future money is worth today, factoring in investment risks.

Control, Complexity and Politics: Deconstructing the Adani Affair!

Musings on Markets • 559 implied HN points • 05 Feb 23
đź’Ľ Business Corporate Finance
  1. The Adani Group has rapidly grown in value, but much of this rise is supported by heavy debt. This heavy borrowing raises concerns about their financial stability.
  2. Investors are worried about potential financial manipulation and the use of shell companies by the Adani family. These practices could undermine trust and lead to serious consequences.
  3. Family businesses in India, like the Adani Group, can struggle with control issues that may harm overall growth. It's important for these companies to seek outside management talent to thrive.

5 Bankruptcy Concepts You Need to Know

DeFi Education • 699 implied HN points • 17 Nov 22
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Companies usually know they're going to file for bankruptcy ahead of time. This allows them to negotiate with lenders and creditors to plan a smoother bankruptcy process.
  2. Bankruptcies involve many different parties with competing interests. Each creditor wants to get the best deal, which can lead to complex negotiations.
  3. There are two main ways a bankruptcy can go: restructuring, where the company tries to stay in business, or liquidation, where the company sells off assets and shuts down.

Making Oxford Nanopore Profitable?

ASeq Newsletter • 21 implied HN points • 15 Dec 25
đź’Ľ Business Corporate Finance
  1. A new CEO is expected to make the company profitable by 2027.
  2. Recent financials show losses haven’t meaningfully decreased and 2025 appears worse, so progress toward profitability is limited.
  3. Headcount has been rising, which suggests costs aren’t being cut and makes the profitability goal harder to achieve.

Ticker Take: a weekly newsletter on investing.

Jon’s Newsletter • 59 implied HN points • 13 Apr 24
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Market corrections can happen quickly, but historically, the S&P 500 often recovers most losses in just a few months. It's usually better for long-term investors to hold on rather than sell during downturns.
  2. Apple is working to integrate AI into its products, aiming to boost sales, especially in its Mac line. However, the overall impact might not be enough to offset current weaknesses in iPhone sales.
  3. Several tech companies are expected to see significant sales growth in the coming years. Nvidia, Micron, and Shopify are leading the way, showing that tech is still a strong sector for investment.

Renesas's Wolfspeed Bath and Micron Earnings

Mule’s Musings • 109 implied HN points • 30 Jun 25
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Renesas, Wolfspeed, and Micron are key players in the tech industry. Their earnings can impact the market significantly.
  2. Understanding the financial performance of these companies helps investors make better decisions. Good earnings reports often signal growth and stability.
  3. Keeping an eye on these companies is important for anyone interested in the technology market. Trends in their earnings can indicate future opportunities.

Banker Wonderland

Net Interest • 14 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. M&A advisory is extremely lucrative, with firms and boutique bankers earning huge fees on big deals and the industry seeing record revenues and backlogs.
  2. The job is high‑pressure and time‑consuming, with bankers routinely working holidays and long hours to win and manage transactions.
  3. Pay is mostly success‑based—a percentage of deal value—so advisors do a lot of unpaid work hoping a few big wins will cover their costs, and appointments often hinge on personal relationships which can cause disputes.

Data Update 7 for 2023: Dividends, Buybacks and Cash flows

Musings on Markets • 359 implied HN points • 08 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Buybacks are becoming more common than dividends for companies to return cash to shareholders. Companies find buybacks more flexible and less of a commitment than regular dividend payments.
  2. Dividends should be one of the last steps in a company's financial decisions. If a company has no good investments, it should consider paying dividends or buybacks as a way to return cash to owners.
  3. There are tax differences between dividends and buybacks that may influence shareholder preferences. Although dividends used to be taxed more heavily, the gap has narrowed in recent years.

IPOs are underpriced

Something to Consider • 19 implied HN points • 25 Jun 24
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. IPOs, or initial public offerings, often sell for less than their true value. This means companies miss out on money they could have earned.
  2. There are better ways to sell shares, like auctions, that could help get a fairer price. Selling all shares at once is not ideal.
  3. Releasing shares gradually could lead to better pricing and less underpricing. This way, companies wouldn’t leave money on the table when they go public.

Data Update 6 for 2023: The Upside and Downside of Debt!

Musings on Markets • 359 implied HN points • 28 Feb 23
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. Debt can be a useful tool for businesses to fund growth, but it also comes with risks. Finding the right balance of debt and equity is important for long-term success.
  2. There are good reasons to borrow, like taking advantage of tax benefits, and bad reasons, such as chasing higher returns that aren't real. It's crucial to understand the real costs.
  3. Companies often stick to past borrowing habits or follow what others in their industry do. This inertia can lead to too much or too little debt, which isn't always the best for their financial health.

Problems at POET Technologies (POET)

The Bear Cave • 256 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. POET Technologies is working on an optical interposer technology, but it has very little revenue and a large debt, raising concerns about its long-term survival.
  2. The stock price of POET has risen dramatically this year, largely due to promotional campaigns rather than the company’s actual performance or growth.
  3. Several YouTube videos promoting POET were paid for by the company, which coincided with big jumps in stock price, suggesting that hype is driving interest more than solid fundamentals.

Dissent and Debate: The Pushback on my Tesla Valuation

Musings on Markets • 379 implied HN points • 03 Feb 23
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. There are strong opinions on both sides regarding Tesla's future value. Some believe it's undervalued, while others think it's overvalued, showing how divided people are about the company's potential.
  2. Revenue growth estimates are tricky; as companies get bigger, it's harder to keep high growth rates. The idea is that Tesla will reach a certain revenue and then grow slowly, like many large companies.
  3. Cost of capital is an important factor in valuing a company. For Tesla, using a realistic cost of capital helps in understanding its financial potential, even if different viewpoints exist on what that number should be.

How to Analyze an Income Statement

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 219 implied HN points • 06 Jul 23
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. An income statement shows how well a company is doing by detailing its revenue, expenses, and net income over a period. It's important because it helps you understand if a company is making a profit or losing money.
  2. Gross profit margin is a key metric to analyze. It reveals whether the company is profitable on the products it sells, and a stable or rising margin is a good sign.
  3. When reading an income statement, look for trends over time, check revenue directions, and ensure expense categories make sense. This can highlight the company's overall health and performance.

What is EBITDA?

Concepts of Finance 🧠 • 299 implied HN points • 16 Mar 23
đź’° Finance Corporate Finance
  1. EBITDA stands for Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortisation. It's a way to see how much cash a company makes from its regular activities, without debt and accounting effects.
  2. To calculate EBITDA, you add net income, taxes, interest, depreciation, and amortisation. This helps give a clearer picture of a company's financial health.
  3. Companies like EBITDA because it shows how well they're doing without the impact of financing and other expenses. It's a key metric when looking at profits or selling the business.