European Straits • 23 implied HN points • 08 Mar 26
- A late-cycle shock in the Middle East is hitting an already fragile economy, driving oil above $90 and adding fresh inflationary pressure while jobs and growth soften.
- We’re in the maturity phase of the tech-led paradigm, where slowing productivity, high public debt, and institutional decay mean shocks are amplified and monetary options are constrained.
- The United States has a history of misreading Iran, and recent strikes appear driven more by domestic politics than clear strategy; asymmetric warfare economically favors Iran and the crisis could either hasten a new global order or merely prolong the old one.