Bet On It

Bet On It, authored by Caplan and Candor, delves into a range of topics including political policies, economic theories, personal growth strategies, and the complex interplay of society and individual choices. It critically examines the effects of ideologies and practices on both macro and micro levels, encouraging a non-conformist and pragmatic approach towards understanding and navigating the challenges of modern life.

Political Policies Economic Theories Personal Development Societal Trends Educational Systems Media and Content Censorship Market Mechanisms Justice Systems Relationship Advice Career Development Libertarian Views Technology and Society

The hottest Substack posts of Bet On It

And their main takeaways

What's Happening at Natal-Con 2025

85 implied HN points • 21 Feb 25
🎭️ Culture Conferences Philosophy Societal Trends
  1. Natal-Con 2025 is happening in Austin, featuring many speakers who support having more children. It's a great chance to engage with influential thinkers on this topic.
  2. The cost to attend is high, but it allows for personal interaction with the speakers. This can lead to valuable discussions and connections.
  3. Low birthrates are seen as a lost chance for both economic growth and the richness of life. More births could lead to a more meaningful existence for many people.

Mr. Haltiwanger and the Austrians

140 implied HN points • 09 Jan 25
💼 Business Economics Entrepreneurship Market Analysis Competitiveness Labor Economics
  1. Austrian economists should pay more attention to John Haltiwanger’s research on creative destruction. His work shows how important entrepreneurial growth is to the economy.
  2. Entrepreneurs help move resources to better uses by discovering opportunities and improving efficiency. This competition helps the economy grow and evolve.
  3. Measuring how resources are reallocated can show if markets are really working well. If more productive firms gain market share, it indicates a healthy, dynamic economy.

A Tale from the Friend Zone

135 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
🎭️ Culture Relationships Personal Growth Philosophy Life Stories Self-help
  1. Sometimes, people see you as a friend and not a partner, and it's important to accept that. Trying to change their mind often doesn't work.
  2. Many people end up staying friends even when they have feelings for someone, which can lead to regrets later on. It's crucial to recognize when to move on.
  3. Reflecting on past relationships can bring up feelings of regret, especially when we realize things about people we once cared for. It's a part of life.

*Tell Us a Childhood Story*, Part 2

80 implied HN points • 11 Feb 25
📚 Literature Non-fiction Memoir Stories Childhood Essays
  1. Childhood stories can be strange and memorable. They often shape who we are later in life.
  2. Sharing personal stories helps connect with others and evokes emotions. It can create a sense of understanding and community.
  3. Reading or listening to childhood tales can inspire us to reflect on our own past experiences. They remind us of the lessons we've learned and the fun we've had.
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A Free Future

105 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Housing Deregulation Policy Futurism
  1. Open borders can lead to more opportunities and growth for everyone. Allowing people to move freely can benefit economies and societies.
  2. Housing deregulation can help make living more affordable. Reducing restrictions can lead to more homes being built and lower prices.
  3. The ideas of freedom and less regulation can lead to a better future. It's important to consider how these changes could positively impact society.

My 2nd-Favorite Book on Housing

135 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
📚 Literature Books Housing Policy Economics Science fiction
  1. The book 'Home Win' is a creative look at housing policy through science fiction, imagining how Britain could solve its housing crisis in the next decade.
  2. It points out that Britain has not been building enough houses, often due to restrictive planning laws that hamper development in comparison to other countries.
  3. The story highlights a shift in politics, where a pro-development movement called YIMBY (Yes In My Back Yard) gains traction, pushing back against NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) attitudes and leading to more housing construction.

Open Borders and Adverse Selection: A Reply to Khale

100 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Policy Debate Economics Society
  1. Open borders could be beneficial as immigrants often see a big increase in their wages, which can also help the economy overall.
  2. The vetting system for immigrants doesn't seem very effective, as it may not select for the best candidates.
  3. Concerns about adverse selection are not as strong when looking at actual immigration data, which shows that legal immigrants often bring significant economic gains.

The Justice of Bukele?

674 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
🌍 World Politics Law Justice Authoritarianism Human Rights Corruption
  1. Nayib Bukele's policies in El Salvador have significantly reduced the murder rate, but come at a cost of widespread jailing and lack of fair trials.
  2. The debate on Bukele's justice system involves utilitarian calculations which weigh saving lives against infringing on rights, highlighting moral pluralism.
  3. The emphasis on the importance of trials in a justice system is viewed primarily from an epistemic standpoint, weighing the trade-offs of accuracy and potential errors.

Book Nook Reading Notes on *Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids*

55 implied HN points • 20 Feb 25
  1. The book argues that having more kids can be beneficial for parents, highlighting intrinsic rewards like happiness and satisfaction. It suggests thinking about what you gain personally from parenting.
  2. Caplan emphasizes the role of nature over nurture in shaping children, proposing that our efforts in parenting might not have as much long-term influence as we think.
  3. Many factors influence the decision to have kids, including societal expectations and financial concerns. The book suggests that better government support and communal networks could encourage families to have more children.

Higher Ed is a Woke Seminary

110 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Higher education Political Bias Social Issues Podcasting
  1. Many people believe that American universities have a strong left-leaning bias in their teachings. This perspective has been noticeable for a long time.
  2. There’s a concern that so-called 'woke' ideas and beliefs from colleges may influence society and culture more than previously thought.
  3. The discussion around education and its political leanings is ongoing and important to understand the impact on students and the wider community.

The Noble Truth of the Model Minority

543 implied HN points • 12 Mar 24
🎭️ Culture Society Politics History Race Discrimination
  1. The concept of the model minority myth oversimplifies complex issues of race, class, and discrimination, potentially leading to misunderstandings and neglect of obstacles faced by minority groups
  2. The model minority myth can be a divisive tool, used to either maintain white supremacy or challenge it by showcasing counterexamples
  3. Critics argue that the model minority myth, despite being labeled a 'myth', may hold elements of truth as a socially harmful revelation rather than a complete falsehood

Hanson-Caplan Dialogue on Cultural Drift

110 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
🎭️ Culture Cultural Studies Philosophy Social Issues Communication Media
  1. Cultural drift is a concerning issue that can affect society in various negative ways. It means that cultural values and ideas can change quickly and not always for the better.
  2. The topic has been a point of discussion and worry for some, indicating a need to address these changes in a healthy manner. It's important to reflect on what behaviors and ideas we want to keep or discard.
  3. Conversations about cultural drift can help raise awareness and encourage people to think critically about the influence of modern technology and trends on our culture. Talking about these issues is the first step toward understanding and possibly addressing them.

UAE 25 Years Ago

155 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
🌐 International Middle East Travel Culture Economics History
  1. The UAE has provided good economic opportunities to many, including foreign workers who appreciate living there, despite any restrictions.
  2. Visitors face strict security measures to enter the UAE, showing the government's serious approach to control drugs and other prohibited materials.
  3. There can be a big difference between public rules and private behaviors, like how people might act differently in private despite strict laws.

American Fertility Still Runs in Families

115 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Fertility Genetics Parenting Cultural Trends
  1. Fertility is largely influenced by genetics. People from bigger families tend to have more children themselves.
  2. Recent studies show that the connection between family size and having children is actually getting stronger over time.
  3. While family size impacts future fertility, societal factors are also important, and there has been a decline in overall fertility rates in recent years.

The Conformity of Silence

568 implied HN points • 13 Feb 24
🏥 Health & Wellness Mental health Social Skills Self-Improvement
  1. Many people struggle to talk to strangers due to conformism and fear of rejection.
  2. Breaking the silence and speaking to others can lead to new friendships, romantic connections, and opportunities.
  3. Embracing non-conformism and engaging with strangers, even in small ways, can lead to positive outcomes and personal growth.

Self-Hating Signaling

654 implied HN points • 02 Jan 24
🚌 Education Higher Ed
  1. The primary purpose of education is signaling to potential employers.
  2. Elite schools are sacrificing their elitist signaling mission for a secondary mission of charity, diluting the value of their degrees.
  3. U.S. News and World Report's revised ranking formula is obfuscating the trade-off between merit and philanthropy, redefining philanthropy as merit.

Do Ten Times as Much

1132 implied HN points • 13 Jun 23
🚌 Education Learning Effort Parenting Achievement Goals
  1. Success often requires ten times more effort than what is considered normal.
  2. Quality practice matters, but putting in ten times the effort is crucial for fluency in skills or knowledge.
  3. Prioritize your goals and focus on a few, putting in ten times more effort to increase your chances of success.

One-Paragraph Book Reviews

1433 implied HN points • 15 Feb 23
📚 Literature Book Reviews
  1. The New Russians by Hedrick Smith is a great piece of journalism and social science about the Soviet Union's collapse and the Russian population.
  2. Maoism: A Global History by Julia Lovell explores Maoist movements globally and their impact with a critical lens.
  3. Radical Markets: Uprooting Capitalism and Democracy for a Just Society by Eric Posner and Glen Weyl presents interesting ideas but may not address significant real-world issues.

Voluntary Human Extinction: The Definitive Documentary

90 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
🎭️ Culture Documentaries Film Family Society
  1. The documentary explores the Voluntary Human Extinction Movement, which suggests that humans should stop reproducing. It's a unique topic that may not seem entertaining at first.
  2. The filmmaker, Tim Kyle, does a great job presenting the ideas in an engaging way. Even kids can find it enjoyable, as noted by a viewer's 12-year-old daughter.
  3. Despite its serious subject, the documentary has good production quality and can be fun for everyone in the family.

Battle of the Borders

120 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🎭️ Culture Music Debates Art Performance Immigration
  1. There is a new rap battle featuring Borjas and Caplan, focusing on immigration debates. It's a fun and creative way to explore serious topics like open borders versus immigration restrictions.
  2. The rap includes professional singers and a surprise guest, making it entertaining for viewers. It's designed to be family-friendly and can spark discussions among all ages.
  3. One notable line from the battle suggests that civic knowledge is more about who is teaching in colleges rather than immigration policies. This highlights the importance of education in shaping society.

Five Possible California Events y Mi Retorno a España

90 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
🏝 Travel Events Culture Nature Social Economics
  1. There are five possible events happening in California from December 9-24, where people can meet up. Locations include national parks and restaurants like Maria's Italian Kitchen.
  2. The author is excited to return to Spain around March 17-23, with major events planned in Madrid. They feel hopeful about Spain's future, despite its socialist background.
  3. The author believes that national parks should be privatized for better management and service. They think changes in places like Argentina and Cuba could influence this idea.

Double-Plus-Ungood: GMU's Orwellian "Just Societies" Mandate

422 implied HN points • 04 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Education Diversity Free speech Academic Freedom Ideology
  1. The GMU's 'Just Societies' mandate is viewed as a thinly-veiled woke indoctrination requirement that lacks exploration of different views on justice. It focuses heavily on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) principles.
  2. The requirement assumes the DEI view of justice is correct, overlooking deep controversies and philosophical debates. Alternative perspectives like color-blind meritocracy are dismissed.
  3. Critics argue that the mandate promotes state-sponsored ideological activism, ignores traditional philosophical debates on justice, and signifies leftist indoctrination within academia.

BBB Podcasts Galore

45 implied HN points • 06 Feb 25
🎙 Podcasts Interviews Reviews Promotions Discussions Entertainment
  1. Podcasts can be a great way to promote your work, especially if you've written a book. It's important to share your thoughts and insights with others.
  2. Diverse perspectives on platforms like YouTube can enhance your understanding of various topics. Engaging with different creators is valuable.
  3. Creating content consistently helps to build an audience. Regular updates keep your followers interested and connected.

The Gillespie Immigration Interview

35 implied HN points • 18 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Interviews Trump Policy Media
  1. The interview took place in a very cold basement right after Trump's inauguration. It was a fun experience despite the freezing temperatures.
  2. The discussion centered around immigration and its importance. The speakers were eager to share their views on how immigration can benefit society.
  3. A video of the full interview was shared for others to enjoy. It highlights the engaging conversation between the participants.

Tenure Is a Total Scam

644 implied HN points • 05 Sep 23
🚌 Education Research Teaching Academia
  1. Getting tenure involves a complex process of academic achievements and connections.
  2. Tenured professors have minimal job responsibilities and are difficult to fire.
  3. The tenure system in academia may be sustained by perverse incentives and weak selection pressure.

Upcoming Events: NYC, Phoenix, Nashville, DC

55 implied HN points • 10 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political Events Public Speaking Immigration Civic engagement
  1. There are several upcoming events in different cities, like New York City, Phoenix, Nashville, and DC. These events will be open to the public and offer opportunities to meet up.
  2. Each event will feature discussions on topics like immigration and education, with guest speakers and the chance for Q&A sessions. It's a good way to learn and engage with new ideas.
  3. People interested in attending are encouraged to express their interest in meet-ups, and organizers will try to arrange these if there's enough demand.

The RCT Agenda

352 implied HN points • 11 Mar 24
🚌 Education Economics Research Science Academia
  1. The book highlights how the randomistas in economics might have a political agenda of serving government rather than challenging it, focusing on randomized controlled trials (RCTs).
  2. Many economists focus on RCTs to measure causal effects of variables, emphasizing laboratory, field, and natural experiments in research, with randomization as the core of experimentation.
  3. Randomistas often avoid engaging in the debate of free markets vs. government, favoring government-centered policies in their research strategies, leading to limited exploration of free-market economics.

Expanding India's Horizons

60 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
🎙 Podcasts Media Culture Interviews Discussion Entertainment
  1. The podcast features a conversation about India and its culture. It's aimed at sharing insights and experiences from the country.
  2. Neil Joseph, the guest on the podcast, represents Indian perspectives and experiences. He adds depth and authenticity to the discussion.
  3. The podcast is available in both English and Hindi. This makes it accessible to a wider audience interested in learning about India.

Can a Graphic Novel Change Housing Policy?

80 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🎭️ Culture Graphic novels Housing policy Media influence Literature Public Discourse
  1. Graphic novels can influence important topics like housing policy. They make complex ideas easier to understand with visuals.
  2. Lower housing costs often get overlooked because people focus on less important concerns. It's important to address what truly matters.
  3. Using engaging media like podcasts can help share and discuss these ideas effectively with a wider audience.

Woman: A Non-Circular Definition

684 implied HN points • 05 Jul 23
🎭️ Culture Gender Society Ethics Identity Film
  1. The documentary 'What Is a Woman?' is praised for being sublime, humane, and hilarious despite controversy.
  2. Interviewees in the film struggled to define 'woman' in a non-circular way due to their dogmas.
  3. The film challenges views on transgenderism and highlights the complexities and controversies surrounding the topic.

The Borjas-Caplan Immigration Debate

75 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Debate Policy Public Opinion Ideology
  1. The debate highlights different views on immigration research. Borjas focuses on the flaws in the research rather than saying immigration is outright bad.
  2. Borjas believes that gut feelings about immigration policies are valid, even if they lead to stricter immigration rules.
  3. The author argues that Borjas has a misguided understanding of ideology, launching a critique against relying solely on instinct over informed decisions.

My Accelerated Globalists Interview

85 implied HN points • 25 Oct 24
🎙 Podcasts Media Culture Futurism Immigration Interviews
  1. The Accelerated Globalists podcast is gaining popularity quickly, with nearly 3000 subscribers already. It only has a few videos, showing strong interest in the topics covered.
  2. The discussions on the podcast cover a range of topics starting from immigration and moving into cultural evolution and future trends. This variety keeps the content engaging and informative.
  3. The podcast features interesting guests, including notable figures like Robin Hanson, which adds depth and credibility to the conversations.