CalculatedRisk Newsletter

The CalculatedRisk Newsletter focuses on in-depth analysis and updates on the real estate market, including housing sales, mortgage rates, housing inventory, credit scores, market dynamics, policy proposals, and economic implications of events like the pandemic on housing. It combines data-driven insights with forecasts and trends.

Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Sales and Inventory Mortgage Rates and Debt Economic Trends Affecting Real Estate Policy and Regulatory Changes Market Forecasts and Predictions

The hottest Substack posts of CalculatedRisk Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2024

28 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economics Investments Mortgage Rates
  1. House prices are gradually increasing, with a 4.2% rise year-over-year noted in the Case-Shiller National Index. This suggests the housing market is still active but may slow down soon.
  2. The monthly increase in house prices has been steady, showing growth for 19 consecutive months. This indicates a long-term positive trend in the housing market.
  3. Future outlooks for house prices in 2024 are being discussed, hinting at ongoing changes and developments that could impact buyers and sellers alike.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in October and a Look Ahead to November Sales

23 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Trends Sales Data Mortgage Rates Inventory
  1. Existing home sales went up for the first time in over two years, but they are still low overall. Many people signed contracts when mortgage rates were at their lowest in two years.
  2. Florida and Texas are seeing a big increase in house listings, which is affecting prices in those areas. Hurricane Milton had an impact on statistics in Florida.
  3. Each local market has different trends, and some data is compared to figures from 2019 to show changes over time.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.96 million SAAR in October

23 implied HN points • 21 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Existing-home sales rose to 3.96 million in October, marking a 3.4% increase from September and the first yearly rise since July 2021. This shows a positive trend in the housing market.
  2. Median home prices increased by 4.0% compared to last year, which suggests that despite more inventory, homes are still getting more expensive.
  3. Inventory of homes for sale is up 19.1% compared to last year, indicating more options for buyers, although the months of supply is higher than in pre-pandemic times.

In Q2, almost 20% of Units Started Built-for-Rent were Single Family

28 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
💼 Business Real Estate Housing Market Trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. In the second quarter of 2024, nearly 20% of new rental units were single-family homes. This shows a growing interest in single-family rentals.
  2. The number of single-family units built-for-rent has almost doubled since 2020, indicating a trend towards more single-family developments.
  3. While multi-family rental units saw a big drop, single-family units are becoming a bigger part of the rental market, signaling a shift in housing demand.
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ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Annual home price growth cooled for the seventh consecutive month"

28 implied HN points • 04 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investments Market Trends Mortgage Rates
  1. Home price growth has slowed down for seven months in a row. This suggests that the housing market is cooling off.
  2. Mortgage holders currently have a lot of equity, totaling $17.2 trillion in the U.S. This equity can sometimes be tapped for additional borrowing.
  3. Recent cuts to Fed rates might encourage more homeowners to use their home equity. This could lead to an increase in home equity withdrawals by homeowners.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2024

220 implied HN points • 10 Jan 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economy
  1. The overview provides a snapshot of the current housing market including sales, prices, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 9.1% year-over-year in December of 2023.
  3. Seasonally, December and January are weaker months for new listings, but it's expected that new listings may be up year-over-year in 2024.

NMHC: "Apartment Market Continues to Loosen"

205 implied HN points • 22 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Investing
  1. Apartment market conditions are weakening, with decreasing rent growth and rising vacancy rates.
  2. The Market Tightness Index has indicated looser market conditions for six consecutive quarters.
  3. There is a high number of apartments under construction, leading to an influx of new apartments and increased concessions.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

205 implied HN points • 09 Jan 24
💰 Finance Real Estate
  1. Early reports suggest sales in December were down slightly year-over-year.
  2. The data includes a comparison to December 2019 for each local market.
  3. The post offers a first look at local housing markets with ongoing tracking of about 40 markets.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September

14 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Investment Analysis Market research
  1. The national house price index increased by 3.9% from last year, showing steady growth in home values.
  2. Most cities saw home prices rise month-to-month, but some places like Los Angeles and Miami experienced declines.
  3. While year-over-year growth is still positive, the pace of increase is slowing down, indicating that the housing market might be stabilizing.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October

19 implied HN points • 07 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Sales Data Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. Local housing markets saw their first year-over-year sales increase since August 2021. This is a positive sign for the real estate industry.
  2. The data includes comparisons to October 2019, showing how current markets stack up against pre-pandemic times.
  3. Over 40 local housing markets across the US are being tracked for this analysis. This gives a broad view of housing trends in different regions.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak

19 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis
  1. House prices, when adjusted for inflation, are currently about 1.5% lower than their peak in 2022. This means that even though prices seem high, they aren't as high as they were last year when considering the money's value.
  2. Real estate prices have been increasing steadily over time, and currently, they are 11% above the prices during the housing bubble of 2006. People should keep an eye on these real prices to better understand the market.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is still down around 8% from its highest point in 2022. This suggests that renting is somewhat more affordable compared to buying, which is an important factor for homebuyers to consider.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2024

148 implied HN points • 12 Feb 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgage Rates Inventory Sales
  1. The 2-part overview offers insights into the current state of the housing market for mid-February 2024, covering aspects like house prices, sales, inventory, mortgage rates, and rents.
  2. New listings for existing homes were up 2.8% year-over-year in January 2024, showing a slight increase from the previous year's record low for January, potentially signaling an increase in overall inventory for the market.
  3. It's important to note that December and January are typically the weakest months for new listings, and while new listings are expected to show year-over-year growth in 2024, March data will provide a clearer picture of their proximity to normal levels.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

14 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing supply
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same year over year, with a slight decrease of about 0.7%. This means that renting is a bit cheaper now than it was last year.
  2. There are more rental apartments available now, which has led to a higher vacancy rate of 6.8%. This increase in supply is likely to keep rents from rising quickly.
  3. Single-family home rents did see a small increase of 2.4% year over year, but this is the slowest growth seen in some time. It suggests that rent prices in general are stabilizing.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September; Up 3.6% Year-over-year

14 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Investment Economics Data Analysis
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up by 3.6% compared to last year. This shows that house prices are on the rise.
  2. Many cities in Florida are struggling with real estate; 17 out of the 30 worst performing cities are located there.
  3. The Freddie Mac index is based on specific loans and includes sales data to track house prices accurately.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2024

90 implied HN points • 14 Feb 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. The Case-Shiller National Index revealed a year-over-year increase of 5.1% in house prices, with expectations of a more positive change in December.
  2. Different measures like the NAR, ICE, and Freddie Mac also show positive trends in house prices, hitting new all-time highs in December 2024.
  3. This analysis provides insights into the current state of the housing market, offering a glimpse into where it has been, where it is now, and where it might be heading.

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in Q4 2023

90 implied HN points • 08 Feb 24
  1. Mortgage delinquencies increased in Q4 2023 for all loan types.
  2. The largest increase in delinquencies was for FHA loans.
  3. The total delinquency rate for conventional loans also increased.

Inventory will Tell the Tale

124 implied HN points • 08 Nov 23
💰 Finance Economic Forecasting
  1. The importance of monitoring inventory in forecasting the housing market.
  2. Changes in housing inventory have been helpful in predicting market trends.
  3. In-depth analysis of existing home sales reports from key sources.