CalculatedRisk Newsletter

The CalculatedRisk Newsletter focuses on in-depth analysis and updates on the real estate market, including housing sales, mortgage rates, housing inventory, credit scores, market dynamics, policy proposals, and economic implications of events like the pandemic on housing. It combines data-driven insights with forecasts and trends.

Real Estate Market Analysis Housing Sales and Inventory Mortgage Rates and Debt Economic Trends Affecting Real Estate Policy and Regulatory Changes Market Forecasts and Predictions

The hottest Substack posts of CalculatedRisk Newsletter

And their main takeaways

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year

33 implied HN points • 02 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Market Trends Economic data Price analysis
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index increased by 4.0% in November compared to last year. This shows that home prices are rising nationally.
  2. In Florida, many cities are facing significant price declines. Out of the 30 cities with the largest drops, 15 are located in Florida.
  3. This data is based on home sales that Freddie Mac has financed and includes regular appraisals. It helps track housing market trends accurately.

Housing Discussion with Altos Research's Mike Simonsen

19 implied HN points • 16 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Analysis Economic Trends Investment Strategies
  1. There's a discussion about housing trends, led by Mike Simonsen from Altos Research. It's important to know what's happening in the housing market right now.
  2. The video linked offers insights on various housing aspects. Watching it can help you understand current market conditions better.
  3. CalculatedRisk Newsletter is supported by its readers. Subscribing helps the creator continue sharing valuable information.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales

33 implied HN points • 30 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Mortgage Rates
  1. Existing home sales saw a year-over-year increase in November, but overall sales are still low compared to past years. This means the market is slowly improving but hasn't fully bounced back yet.
  2. Inventory levels of homes for sale are rising, especially in states like Florida and Texas. More available homes could impact house prices as we move into the winter months.
  3. New listings are showing slight growth, but they remain lower than historical norms. This could mean fewer options for buyers compared to previous years.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025

19 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Housing Economics Investing
  1. New home listings increased slightly in December compared to the previous year, but they are still much lower than before the pandemic.
  2. Lower mortgage rates during the previous months had encouraged some homeowners to sell, but higher rates now are limiting new sellers this winter.
  3. December and January are usually the slowest months for new home listings, but the year-over-year increase shows some movement in the market.

Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO

47 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Delinquencies
  1. We won't see a big increase in foreclosures like before. Most homeowners have good equity and stable mortgages, which helps them avoid financial struggles.
  2. The number of properties owned by lenders remains low, indicating that fewer people are losing their homes. This is a good sign compared to past economic downturns.
  3. Delinquency rates are decreasing, and most homeowners are able to keep up with payments. Even those in trouble can often find solutions to stay in their homes.
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3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

43 implied HN points • 16 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Markets Real Estate Economic Indicators Sales Data Market Analysis
  1. November home sales are expected to show a slight increase compared to October, with forecasts at 3.97 million annually. This is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. This marks the second year-over-year gain in home sales since July 2021, indicating a potential recovery in the market.
  3. The data will be released by the NAR on December 19th, offering insight into how the housing market is currently performing.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November

38 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators
  1. In November, existing-home sales rose to 4.15 million, marking a 4.8% increase from October. This shows a positive trend in the housing market after a long time.
  2. Median house prices went up by 4.7% compared to last year. This indicates that homes are becoming more expensive, even as sales are improving.
  3. The total housing inventory declined slightly to 1.33 million units, but it's still higher compared to last year. There's a good amount of homes available, but the sales pace keeps inventory lower than before.

Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth

33 implied HN points • 24 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Demographics Migration Population Growth Housing
  1. The new Census estimates show that the U.S. population is growing much faster than before. This growth is mainly due to better counting of international migrants.
  2. Population growth from 2021 to 2024 is estimated to be over 3 million more than previous estimates. Most of this increase comes from net international migration.
  3. Revised population numbers can affect employment surveys, meaning we might see significant updates when the numbers are adjusted next year.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024

43 implied HN points • 13 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Mortgage Rates Investment Trends Economic outlook
  1. House prices have been rising, with a 3.9% increase over the last year. This trend looks set to continue based on recent data.
  2. The Case-Shiller National Index saw monthly gains for the 20th time in a row, indicating a strong upward movement in home values.
  3. Understanding past trends in the housing market helps predict future changes, which is crucial for buyers and sellers.

Housing Starts Increased to 1.499 million Annual Rate in December

14 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Economy Real Estate Market Trends Construction
  1. Housing starts for December were 1.499 million, which is 15.8% higher than November but 4.4% lower than December 2023.
  2. Single-family housing starts rose slightly compared to November, while multi-family starts saw a drop year-over-year.
  3. Total housing starts decreased by 2.6% in 2024 compared to 2023, with single-family homes seeing a slight increase while multi-family homes declined significantly.

Question #8 for 2025: How much will Residential investment change in 2025? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2025?

28 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Investment Economics Market Trends Housing
  1. Residential investment is likely to see a small increase in 2024, which is a positive shift after two years of decline.
  2. Housing starts for single-family homes are expected to remain stable, while multi-family starts may drop a bit more in 2025.
  3. New home sales are projected to rise by about 5% in 2025, indicating a gradual recovery in the housing market.

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-January 2025

14 implied HN points • 15 Jan 25
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Investment
  1. House prices have been steadily increasing, showing a 3.6% rise year-over-year as of October and continued growth is expected.
  2. There has been a consistent upward trend in house prices, with a 0.35% monthly increase noted, marking the 21st month of growth.
  3. The outlook for house prices in 2025 remains uncertain, with various factors influencing future changes in the housing market.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.6% year-over-year in October

23 implied HN points • 31 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Housing Market
  1. House prices in the U.S. increased by 3.6% over the past year, according to the Case-Shiller National House Price Index. This suggests that home values are generally rising.
  2. In October, prices went up by 0.35% from the previous month, marking the 21st straight month of increases. Most major cities saw price growth, but some cities like San Francisco have seen declines from their peaks.
  3. Although house prices continue to rise, the rate of growth is slowing down compared to previous years. Factors like high mortgage rates and low inventory are affecting affordability.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December

9 implied HN points • 24 Jan 25
💼 Business Real Estate Sales Data Market Trends Housing Prices Economic Indicators
  1. Existing-home sales rose to 4.24 million in December, showing a 2.2% increase from November. This marks a positive trend after several months of decline.
  2. The median house price reached a record high of $407,500, reflecting a 6% increase from the previous year. This indicates that homes are becoming more expensive.
  3. Total housing inventory decreased to 1.15 million units, suggesting a tighter market. While inventory is down from last month, it has gone up 16.2% compared to last year.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2024

33 implied HN points • 10 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Inventory Analysis Housing policy
  1. New home listings rose slightly by 2% in November compared to last year, but they are still lower than pre-pandemic levels.
  2. The increase in listings was fueled by lower mortgage rates, but higher rates are now reducing new sellers coming into the market.
  3. December and January are typically slow months for new home listings, so we can expect fewer homes to be listed in the near future.

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2024

52 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Market Trends Home Sales
  1. New listings of homes were up by about 5% compared to last year, but they are still much lower than normal levels seen before the pandemic.
  2. The drop in mortgage rates starting in mid-August encouraged more homeowners to list their homes for sale, which is expected to continue even in the colder months.
  3. Weather events like Hurricane Milton affected home listings and sales in certain areas, particularly in Florida, showing that local conditions can impact the overall housing market.

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

28 implied HN points • 12 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgages Equity Housing Market Debt Management
  1. Homeowners are extracting less equity from their homes compared to the past, which is a positive sign for the housing market stability.
  2. Despite a slight rise in negative equity, most homeowners still have significant equity in their homes, which helps buffer against market downturns.
  3. Mortgage debt is rising, but it remains a lower percentage of GDP compared to the peak during the housing bubble, indicating healthier borrowing practices.

California Home Sales Up 9.5% SA YoY in October

43 implied HN points • 20 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators Home Prices
  1. California home sales increased by 9.5% in October compared to the previous year, showing a strong recovery.
  2. October 2023 marked the first year-over-year gain in national existing home sales since August 2021 after a long decline.
  3. Mortgage rates, which dropped in August and September, contributed to the rise in sales, but recent increases might slow future sales.

New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 610,000 Annual Rate in October

38 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Housing Prices Economic Indicators
  1. New home sales dropped sharply to an annual rate of 610,000 in October, which is a significant decrease from previous months. This decline might be linked to recent hurricanes affecting certain areas.
  2. The median price of new homes has decreased by 5% from its peak, which is partly due to the types of homes being sold. This suggests a shift in the market's composition.
  3. There is a notable increase in the months of supply for new homes, now at 9.5 months, indicating a bigger inventory than usual. More completed homes are available compared to recent years, especially since the pandemic.

Question #9 for 2025: What will happen with house prices in 2025?

19 implied HN points • 26 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Housing Prices Supply and Demand
  1. House prices are expected to rise by about 3% to 4% in 2024. This prediction is based on the current trends in housing inventory and sales.
  2. The future of house prices in 2025 will largely depend on supply and demand in the market. A shortage or surplus of homes can greatly influence prices.
  3. There are significant differences in home supply across different regions, with areas like Florida and Texas seeing more inventory. This suggests that while national trends matter, local conditions can lead to very different outcomes.

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

43 implied HN points • 18 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators
  1. In October, existing home sales saw a year-over-year increase, which is the first time this has happened since August 2021. This means more people are buying homes now compared to last year.
  2. The median price of homes rose by about 4.7% compared to the same time last year, showing that homes are becoming more expensive even though sales are still low.
  3. Active inventory of homes for sale went up by 25.9% year-over-year, especially in places like Florida and Texas. This increase could impact home prices in the coming months.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.289 million Annual Rate in November

23 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Economic Trends Construction Market Analysis
  1. In November, housing starts dropped to an annual rate of 1.289 million, marking a 1.8% decrease from October. The overall rate is also down 14.6% compared to November 2023.
  2. Single-family housing starts saw a slight increase of 6.4% from October, while multi-family starts fell significantly by 27.6% year-over-year. This shows that the single-family housing market is performing better than multi-family units.
  3. Year-to-date, total housing starts are down 4.3%, but single-family starts are up 7.2%. Multi-family starts, however, have seen a decline of 30.1%, indicating a tough year for that segment of the market.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November

23 implied HN points • 17 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Interest Rates Economic Indicators Market Trends Home Sales
  1. Existing home sales increased in November, reaching an annual rate of 4.09 million. This is a 3.3% increase from October and 4.6% higher than last November.
  2. The median price for existing single-family homes went up by about 5.3% compared to last year. This suggests a growing demand in the housing market.
  3. There is ongoing discussion about the 'neutral' interest rate, which affects how restrictive monetary policy is. Recent economic growth may lead to higher estimates of this rate among officials.

Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts

38 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economy Real Estate Forecasting
  1. Housing prices are expected to rise a little in 2025, but not by much. People think the increase will be in the low to mid single digits.
  2. Sales of new and existing homes are predicted to go up next year. However, existing home sales will likely stay around four million.
  3. The construction of multi-family homes is not expected to improve in 2025. Builders are generally cautious about starting new multi-family projects.

New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November

19 implied HN points • 23 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic data Inventory Analysis
  1. New home sales went up to a rate of 664,000 in November, showing a good increase from October. This is also higher than the numbers from the same time last year.
  2. The supply of new homes available for sale decreased slightly, now sitting at 8.9 months. This is still higher than the usual range, which is about 4 to 6 months.
  3. The inventory of completed homes is up, with nearly 120,000 available, showing more options for buyers compared to the very low supply in early 2022.

NY Fed: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low

43 implied HN points • 13 Nov 24
💰 Finance Banking Mortgages Credit Economics Debt
  1. Mortgage originations are showing different trends based on credit scores compared to the years before the housing bubble. This means people's borrowing habits and qualifications might have changed significantly.
  2. Delinquencies on mortgages are increasing, which suggests that more people might be having trouble making their payments lately.
  3. Foreclosures are still low, meaning that even though some people are struggling to pay, many still manage to keep their homes and avoid losing them.

FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $806,500

28 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Loans Real Estate Market Trends Regulations
  1. The baseline conforming loan limit for 2025 is being raised to $806,500, which is about $40,000 more than last year. This means people can borrow more for buying homes without needing special approval.
  2. In high-cost areas, the loan limit can go up to $1,209,750 for one-unit properties. That's because home prices in those places are higher than average.
  3. The FHA also has its own loan limits ranging from $524,225 in low-cost areas to $1,209,750 in high-cost areas. These limits help make affordability better for those getting loans guaranteed by the FHA.

4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November

19 implied HN points • 18 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Sales Data Real Estate Market Analysis
  1. Home sales in California jumped by 19.5% compared to last year, signaling a strong recovery even though overall sales remain below pre-COVID levels.
  2. The number of active home listings grew significantly, with inventory up over 20% year-over-year, which may affect house prices in the coming months.
  3. New listings have also increased slightly, but are still at historically low levels, suggesting that supply remains tight in several markets.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: Refinance Activity Increased Especially for Rate/Term Refinances

23 implied HN points • 09 Dec 24
💰 Finance Mortgage Interest Rates Housing Market Delinquencies
  1. Refinance activity surged in September and October, with over 300,000 borrowers taking advantage of lower interest rates. This was the highest refinance volume in 2.5 years.
  2. Mortgage delinquencies decreased slightly in October, dropping below pre-pandemic levels. However, serious delinquencies are still slowly rising year over year.
  3. Home prices saw a small increase in October, with growth edging up to 3.0%. But there are signs that this rate might soften again soon due to rising interest rates and potential demand pullbacks.

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.311 million Annual Rate in October

33 implied HN points • 19 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Real Estate Economic Trends Market Analysis Statistics
  1. Housing starts in October dropped to 1.311 million, which is lower than both September and October of last year. This shows a continued decrease in new home construction.
  2. Single-family housing starts also fell by about 6.9% compared to the previous month, suggesting potential challenges in the market for individual homes.
  3. Multi-family housing starts saw a trend of weakness over the past year, indicating it may be harder to get those types of buildings underway, while single-family starts have been improving recently.

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

23 implied HN points • 06 Dec 24
💼 Business Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Inventory Mortgage Rates
  1. In November, home sales increased by 17% compared to last year. This is a good sign, but sales are still lower than what they were a few years ago.
  2. There was a big jump in active home listings, with inventory up almost 25% year-over-year. This increase is crucial for keeping house prices stable during the winter months.
  3. New listings are rising slightly, but remain low when compared to past years. This means fewer homes are being put on the market, even though some areas are seeing more options.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

23 implied HN points • 05 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Housing Market Economic data Market Analysis
  1. Asking rents have mostly stayed the same when compared to last year, with a slight overall decrease of about 0.6%. This means rental prices are not rising much.
  2. The rental market is seeing more available apartments due to a lot of new construction, which keeps prices low. The vacancy rate is the highest it's been since the pandemic began.
  3. Single-family home rents have increased by about 2% year-over-year but are still below pre-pandemic growth levels. Many areas are seeing slower rent growth, which is good news for renters.

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

33 implied HN points • 15 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Sales Data Economic Indicators Home Prices
  1. Existing home sales increased in October, marking the first year-over-year gain since August 2021. This is a positive sign for the housing market.
  2. Sales were estimated to be at an annual rate of 3.97 million, which is a 3.4% increase from September. This shows a gradual recovery in home buying activity.
  3. The increase in home sales could indicate a shift in the market, possibly making it a better time for buyers and sellers to engage in real estate transactions.

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.4% Below 2022 Peak

23 implied HN points • 04 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Economic Trends Commodities Real Estate Investment Strategies
  1. House prices adjusted for inflation are currently 1.4% lower than their peak in 2022. This means that while prices have gone up, they haven't reached their highest point when you factor in inflation.
  2. In nominal terms, house prices are at all-time highs, but the real value shows a different picture. This is important because it reflects the actual purchasing power of money over time.
  3. The price-to-rent ratio is 8.1% below its peak in 2022, suggesting that buying homes might be getting less attractive compared to renting in the current market.

Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October; Up 3.7% Year-over-year

23 implied HN points • 02 Dec 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Market Trends Economic Indicators Data Analysis Investment Strategies
  1. The Freddie Mac House Price Index went up 3.7% compared to last year, showing a steady increase in home prices.
  2. Florida has many cities experiencing large price declines, with 18 out of the top 35 cities affected.
  3. If more houses are available for sale and sales remain low, we might see a slowdown in home price growth early next year.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

19 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Sales trends Mortgage Rates
  1. In November, home sales increased by 5.8% compared to last year, showing a positive trend in the housing market. This is the second year in a row that sales have gone up after a long period of decline.
  2. Active inventory of homes for sale rose by 26% year-over-year, which is good for buyers, but there are still sharp differences based on the region. Areas like Florida and Texas saw significant increases in available homes.
  3. Mortgage rates fell to the lowest level in two years, averaging between 6.18% and 6.43% in September and October. However, recent increases in rates, now close to 7%, might slow down future sales.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

33 implied HN points • 12 Nov 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Trends Sales Data Local Economy Real Estate
  1. Local housing markets in October showed the first year-over-year sales gain since August 2021. This is a positive sign for home sales.
  2. The analysis includes over 40 local markets, comparing current data to October 2019. This helps understand how the market has changed over time.
  3. Active listings, new listings, and closed sales are being tracked, giving a clearer picture of the housing market's performance.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in September

38 implied HN points • 30 Oct 24
💰 Finance Housing Market Real Estate Economic Indicators
  1. Serious delinquency rates for single-family homes slightly increased in September. This means a small rise in the number of homeowners who are late on their mortgage payments.
  2. Multi-family delinquency rates also went up, hitting levels not seen since 2011. This points to more challenges for those managing multiple rental units.
  3. Despite the increases, overall delinquency rates remain below pre-pandemic lows. This suggests that the housing market is still stronger than it was during the worst of the pandemic.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in October

23 implied HN points • 27 Nov 24
💰 Finance Real Estate Mortgage Delinquency Banking Housing
  1. Single-family serious delinquency rates showed a slight increase in October, marking 0.55% for Freddie Mac and 0.52% for Fannie Mae. This is still lower than delinquency rates before the pandemic.
  2. Multi-family serious delinquency rates also rose, with Fannie Mae's rate reaching its highest since 2011, excluding pandemic data. This indicates growing challenges in the multi-family housing market.
  3. Delinquent loans are defined as being three or more payments past due or in foreclosure. Despite some increases, many recent loans from 2009 to 2023 are still faring well, indicating overall improvement in loan performance.