The hottest Campaigns Substack posts right now

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Poll Update for Oct 4

COVID Reason • 138 implied HN points • 04 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. The latest poll shows Kamala Harris at 49.1% and Donald Trump at 46.9%. This gives Harris a small lead of 2.2%.
  2. The poll data covers a range of dates from September 19 to October 2.
  3. There are individual polls shown recently that provide more insights into the voting trends.

James Fishback: The Right-Wing Troll Who Would Be Governor

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 255 implied HN points • 10 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. A 31-year-old Republican, James Fishback, has become an online right-wing celebrity and is being talked about as a possible future leader of the GOP.
  2. He frequently uses inflammatory rhetoric and flirts with antisemitism, even calling his Black opponent a 'slave'.
  3. His home was the scene of an alleged arson attack during the campaign, which disrupted his plans and is being investigated by police.

Money and Politics

Points And Figures • 719 implied HN points • 08 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Shrinking the size and scope of government is the clearest way to reduce the incentive for special interest money, since less government means fewer funding targets.
  2. Fraudulent fundraising practices like "smurfing" drive up the cost of elections and force rivals to raise ever more money to compete.
  3. High and rigged campaign costs discourage people from running, shrinking the candidate pool and protecting entrenched interests.

Links For January 2025

Astral Codex Ten • 15898 implied HN points • 17 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Running for Congress can be really tough. You often spend a lot of your own money and have to pause your job for a long time.
  2. The debate around AI's progress is heating up. Some people worry that if AI makes a big breakthrough but not everything it was supposed to, it could lead to misunderstandings about its true capabilities.
  3. There's a new dating site idea that matches people based on their chats with an AI helper. It's still in the early stages, but it's an interesting concept.
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Four reasons not to vote for Trump, and four reasons to vote for Harris

Noahpinion • 20235 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Voting for Trump might increase threats from foreign adversaries like China and Russia. Many believe a leader needs to focus on these global challenges instead of internal conflicts.
  2. The people who tend to work with Trump often end up leaving or criticizing him. This raises concern about who would truly be in charge of the country if he were elected again.
  3. Kamala Harris is expected to continue the policies that have helped improve the economy recently, and she brings a more optimistic and patriotic tone to the Democratic party.

An Open Letter to Nikki Haley

Bulwark+ • 6073 implied HN points • 24 Jan 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. The Republican party is facing challenges and Nikki Haley is encouraged to speak up against Trump
  2. Nikki Haley is urged to be honest and bold in her campaign, speaking out against Trump and embracing her true beliefs
  3. The importance of Nikki Haley addressing her past actions, speaking out against Trump, and potentially shaping a new role for herself

The Trump campaign has no grassroots Gen Z meme energy

Jeff Giesea • 818 implied HN points • 08 Aug 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. The Trump campaign lacks the young, grassroots support it had in 2016. It feels slow and less exciting compared to before.
  2. Kamala Harris is gaining momentum with strong support from young people and the media. Her recent rallies have drawn large crowds, showing enthusiasm for her campaign.
  3. Harris is innovating and adapting faster than Trump, which helps her in fundraising and polling. This gives her an advantage as the election approaches.

Donate In Crypto

Points And Figures • 532 implied HN points • 16 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. A campaign for Nevada State Treasurer has launched with a new website. It stresses that fundraising — including personal investment — is essential to run a competitive race.
  2. The campaign added cryptocurrency as a donation option and links to accept crypto contributions. It plans to report cash versus crypto donations to show transparency and validate crypto as a funding source.
  3. Active local outreach and fundraising events are being used to build support, including visits to Republican clubs and auctioning a trading jacket for scholarships. The campaign emphasizes supporting other Republican candidates and building statewide connections.

The MAGA Crack-up. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 482 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. The MAGA coalition is fracturing as internal fights among high-profile figures are reshaping the movement. That split makes Trump look powerful abroad but more contested and weaker at home.
  2. Britain’s fertility rate has dropped to a record low and births may soon be outnumbered by deaths, risking population shrinkage without immigration. This decline points to deep social and economic shifts influencing family decisions.
  3. A meme cryptocurrency tied to Eric Adams raised millions and then saw a $2.5 million withdrawal, suggesting a likely rug pull and highlighting how easily crypto can become political spectacle or scam. The episode underscores the real risks in novelty political fundraising via tokenized assets.

Russiagate Explained: The Sins of the 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 4867 implied HN points • 23 Jul 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. The 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) heavily relied on a single unclear fragment to claim that Putin wanted Trump to win. This led to different interpretations, but the report ignored these alternative views.
  2. Several flawed intelligence reports were used as foundation for the ICA's claims, despite warnings from CIA officers about their reliability. This raises questions about the validity of the ICA's conclusions.
  3. The ICA excluded important information from credible sources that could have provided a different perspective. This omission might show a bias in how the intelligence was presented to the public and policymakers.

Daily Poll Update - October 2, 2020

COVID Reason • 118 implied HN points • 02 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. The daily updates will share the latest averages for polls leading up to the election. This will help people understand the current landscape of voter opinions.
  2. Currently, the national poll shows Harris leading Trump by a small margin. It's close, so every vote will really count.
  3. The updates will continue consistently over the next 30 days as the election approaches. It's a crucial time for voters to stay informed.

Getting Organized

Points And Figures • 586 implied HN points • 09 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Campaigns are expensive and legally complex, so expect a steep learning curve and rising costs that can discourage newcomers.
  2. Your first hires should be a consultant who fits your style and a compliance/treasurer to handle the legal and financial rules and keep you out of trouble.
  3. Organize the campaign around serving citizens, not yourself, and get the back-office systems and local networks in place so your outreach can work.

Vivek Ramaswamy: ‘Victimhood Is a Choice’

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 472 implied HN points • 15 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Vivek Ramaswamy is positioned to win the Republican nomination for Ohio governor and has emerged as the clear frontrunner.
  2. He has secured major backing from the state GOP and Donald Trump, most rivals have dropped out, and he chose Rob McColley as his lieutenant governor pick.
  3. His campaign emphasizes optimism and rejects 'victimhood' as a core message to appeal to Rust Belt voters, while some establishment figures like Governor Mike DeWine have not fully aligned with him.

From Gucci to WPP, marketers are rethinking AI, ad agencies, and the rest is marketing campaigns

The Social Juice • 75 implied HN points • 28 Feb 26
💼 Business Campaigns
  1. AI is upending marketing: companies are using generative tools to make ads, cutting roles because of automation, and facing backlash when AI work feels low-quality or ethically shaky.
  2. The agency landscape is being reshaped as holding companies and clients reorganize, consolidate accounts, and rethink commissions and media models to stay lean and more integrated.
  3. Brands are leaning hard into bold creative moves — stunts, cultural partnerships, celebrity tie‑ins and purpose-driven campaigns — to cut through noise and stay culturally relevant.

Harris is flanking Trump on white male outreach

Jeff Giesea • 738 implied HN points • 06 Aug 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Kamala Harris's choice of Tim Walz as her running mate shows a strategy to appeal to straight white men. This move is seen as a way to reach a demographic that typically supports Trump.
  2. There is a belief that Walz's relatable personality and image could attract swing voters who might be on the fence about their political choices. Even small changes in voting patterns could have a big impact in the election.
  3. Harris could further connect with men by addressing their issues directly, which may help her campaign. Speaking on topics relevant to modern males could challenge the narrative and attract more support.

Good Riddance, Jasmine Crockett

QTR’s Fringe Finance • 54 implied HN points • 04 Mar 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Her loud, spectacle-driven style won viral attention but lost voter confidence. People want representatives who focus on governing and the less glamorous work, not constant performance.
  2. Public gaffes and factual errors—on TV and in public statements—undermined her credibility as a lawyer and congresswoman. Those mistakes made opponents and neutral voters question how carefully she handles facts.
  3. A more conventional, policy-focused challenger appealed to voters and won, showing that elections often reflect long-term impressions rather than single incidents. Blaming procedural issues after the loss came across as an excuse rather than accountability.

Come With Me As We Decide

Points And Figures • 799 implied HN points • 21 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Running for office is a step-by-step process you can organize with tools and reflection, and you should start with simple practical moves like securing a domain name and getting an EIN.
  2. Party culture affects how a campaign looks: Democrats tend to have a centralized party apparatus that narrows choices, while Republicans often rely on decentralized, grassroots help and many willing volunteers.
  3. Campaign logistics and compliance matter more than ideas alone — hire a compliance person early, don’t accept donations until your paperwork is in order, and be careful to avoid legal problems.

Commentator

Castalia • 579 implied HN points • 22 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. If Donald Trump had been shot and hadn't reacted, it could have changed politics a lot, making the Republican party scramble for a new leader. It might have led to violence, but it also could have been calmer than expected.
  2. The Democrats seemed resigned to losing the upcoming elections, with many believing Biden needed to step down. Their response has been quiet, as some leaders were preparing a plan to encourage Biden to leave gracefully.
  3. Now that Biden is out and Kamala Harris is the nominee, she needs to lead a strong campaign against Trump. Harris must highlight Trump's threats to democracy while showing she's capable, even though people often view her as insincere.

Why Politicians Should Stay Inside the Overton Window (Even When the Cause Is Just)

Bet On It • 105 implied HN points • 17 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Politicians who push views far outside what most voters accept can make it harder to achieve real reforms, because opponents can caricature them and coalitions can break down.
  2. There’s a division of labor: writers and activists expand what people can imagine, while elected politicians need to court public opinion and build coalitions to turn ideas into law.
  3. History shows moral urgency matters, but practical, moderate political strategies are often needed to win elections and pass durable reforms.

Recency Bias

Points And Figures • 799 implied HN points • 16 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. People overweight recent events and flip opinions quickly, which leads to hot takes and 180-degree swings in judgment.
  2. Media often amplifies mistakes and negative news more than successes, which distorts how well things are actually going.
  3. Upcoming policy changes and investments can change the economic and political picture by election time, so early predictions may be premature.

Commentator

Castalia • 819 implied HN points • 28 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Biden needs to step aside as he is not adding any value to the Democratic campaign. If he does so, the party could hold a convention and choose a new candidate who might have a better chance against Trump.
  2. Biden's poor debate performance shows he may not realize how badly it went. It's important for influential people around him to help him see the truth for the good of the party.
  3. Even if the Democratic convention seems messy, it's a valid way to choose a candidate. The party has strong talent and could effectively challenge Trump if Biden makes way for someone new.

Yup, I Am Thinking About It

Points And Figures • 666 implied HN points • 19 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Considering running for political office and treating it as a process rather than a snap decision.
  2. Actively listening and learning by meeting people one‑on‑one, door‑knocking, and doing grassroots outreach to understand issues better.
  3. Politics is complex—regulatory, financial, and legal factors differ by local, state, and federal levels—so people are encouraged to share experiences and ask questions about running.

Biden defenders need to take the 'L'

Silver Bulletin • 861 implied HN points • 01 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. The Democratic Party needs to move on from people who can't admit their mistakes regarding Biden's candidacy. It's important to acknowledge failures to learn and grow, especially in politics.
  2. Biden's age was a significant concern, and denying it didn't help the party. Many voters recognized his declining capabilities, showing that being honest about leadership qualities is crucial.
  3. Democrats should hold themselves to a higher standard than their opponents. Accepting accountability and striving for improvement can make a big difference in public perception.

Links For November 2024

Astral Codex Ten • 12664 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Ancient Chinese customs included burying people with passports for the afterlife. This practice was believed to help them gain entry into the underworld.
  2. A new drug for schizophrenia is approved, showing promise for fewer side effects and better treatment for negative symptoms, but it has a high starting price.
  3. Recent studies show that teaching experience may not be as important as previously thought, as using less experienced teachers can lead to worse student performance.

Netanyahu Says It's Antisemitic For Israeli Soldiers To Describe Their Own Atrocities

Caitlin’s Newsletter • 3772 implied HN points • 28 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Israeli leaders are saying it's antisemitic for soldiers to talk about the bad things they did in Gaza. This is a strong reaction to reports that claim Israeli soldiers were ordered to shoot at unarmed civilians.
  2. Soldiers shared their experiences of being told to use lethal force on people seeking humanitarian aid. They said there was no real danger, yet they were ordered to fire on unarmed crowds.
  3. The Israeli government is defending its military by calling these reports false and harmful. They argue that the claims aim to damage the reputation of the Israeli Defense Forces, which they consider very moral.

Commentator

Castalia • 639 implied HN points • 01 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Many Democrats feel that Biden should step aside for the next election, with polls showing a strong preference for a different candidate. The belief is that Biden's time as a leader may be coming to an end.
  2. Biden's team seems out of touch with public opinion and overestimates his connection with voters. They appear to believe that if they manage the media coverage well, it will change how people feel about him.
  3. There's a significant concern about Biden's age and health, with many questioning whether he can effectively lead. This has led to worries about who truly influences his decisions and whether his close circle is providing honest advice.

Actually, sometimes polls underestimate Democrats

Silver Bulletin • 297 implied HN points • 14 Jan 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Polls in 2025 were noticeably off, with average errors around seven points and an overall Republican bias near six points. New Jersey’s governor race was a major outlier where polls missed by roughly nine points.
  2. Bias shifts by cycle: presidential years have tended to underestimate Republicans because low‑propensity voters show up for presidential elections but are underrepresented in surveys, while midterm years usually have less bias. Pollsters’ weighting choices — like relying on recalled vote choice or past electorates — likely made 2025 polls less accurate.
  3. A handful of pollsters did well and most polls correctly picked winners, but small sample sizes and changing turnout patterns make single‑year ratings noisy. That uncertainty raises the risk that pollsters could overcorrect before the 2026 midterms.

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

Silver Bulletin • 9424 implied HN points • 05 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. In the final simulations for the election, Kamala Harris won slightly more than half of the time, but Donald Trump also had a strong chance, especially with potential ties in the Electoral College.
  2. The modeling approach adjusts for different polling methods and emphasizes reliable polls, aiming to offer a clearer picture of who might win the election.
  3. There’s still uncertainty in elections, and surprising outcomes can happen, so many factors could influence the final results.

Jonathan Chait Killed His Patient

JoeWrote • 111 implied HN points • 11 Feb 26
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Centrists are blaming progressives for the 2024 loss, but the party’s shift right to please donors actually shrank its appeal and hurt electoral chances.
  2. Harris’s favorability rose when she was a fresh, change-oriented candidate and fell after the convention when she looked like Biden redux, so the centrist strategy didn’t produce lasting gains and polling contradicts claims that more moderation would have won.
  3. Centrist pundits and operatives are likely to try to sink left-leaning candidates in future primaries, so removing establishment control and preparing defenses is necessary for progressive success.

The Silver Bulletin Year in Review

Silver Bulletin • 336 implied HN points • 31 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. The newsletter experienced a post-election normalization: overall subscriptions rose about 12% but paid subscribers fell roughly 27%, with realized revenue down less (around 17%) while median post readership stayed strong.
  2. The team is hiring an editor to raise the baseline output while keeping quality high, and plans to diversify beyond politics and sports by launching new forecasting products like a generic ballot, COOPER for college basketball, and continued work on ELWAY/QBERT.
  3. The editorial approach centers on data-driven forecasting and testable predictions, producing notable hits and some misses, and the plan is to be more forward-looking and varied in 2026.

Labour should fight Reform by pitching a "Gamer's Charter"

Odds and Ends of History • 469 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
🌍 World Politics Campaigns
  1. A growing cohort of young men, especially gamers, are politically disaffected and drifting toward Reform, so winning their support could be decisive at the next election.
  2. Traditional media and standard political outreach won't reach PlayStation, Discord, Twitch and other gaming spaces, so parties need culturally fluent messaging and channels to engage them.
  3. A focused 'Gamer's Charter' — a policy and outreach package tailored to gamers' interests — could both serve an underserved group and blunt Reform's appeal by meeting these voters where they are.

MAGA's $300 million heist

The Watch • 663 implied HN points • 21 Nov 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Donald Trump is seeking a huge payout of $230 million for what he claims is harm from investigations against him. This amount is shocking when compared to what innocent people, wrongfully imprisoned and abused by police, receive in compensation.
  2. Trump's case highlights a serious imbalance in the justice system, where he, someone who has never been incarcerated, can demand much more money than actual victims of police and legal misconduct.
  3. There are growing concerns that Trump is using his influence to benefit himself and his allies financially, while pushing policies that make it harder for ordinary people who face real injustices to get compensated.

The Democratic base isn’t in the mood to compromise

Silver Bulletin • 468 implied HN points • 11 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Democratic voters are angry and are gravitating toward combative, base-oriented candidates, so a message like “when we fight, we win” will be powerful in primaries even if it hurts general-election prospects.
  2. Selling moderation and “electability” is getting harder because many Democrats distrust the establishment, prefer anger-forward messaging, and turnout-based strategies no longer reliably favor Democrats.
  3. In Texas specifically, centrist options like Colin Allred stepped back while James Talarico may be the more electable choice, but insurgent figures like Jasmine Crockett have strong base appeal and the party can’t easily stop less-general-election-friendly nominees.

TGIF: The People’s Republic of Manhattan

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 2596 implied HN points • 27 Jun 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Zohran Mamdani is running for mayor of New York City and has gained attention for his unique campaign style. His approach combines humor and social media, reminiscent of Trump's marketing tactics.
  2. Despite having a privileged background, Mamdani's campaign portrays him as an outsider challenging the political establishment. He has proposed policies like free buses and rent freezes, aiming to appeal to the public's desire for change.
  3. Mamdani's election reflects a broader shift in New York politics, with moderate Democrats feeling uneasy about his progressive stance. His charismatic campaigning is seen as a potential game-changer for the city's future.

Trump, Dumb, and Dumber

Diane Francis • 1059 implied HN points • 25 Apr 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Trump allegedly paid hush money to cover up affairs, but it didn't work. The details became public anyway.
  2. Many believe Trump shows poor judgment and impulse control, which raises doubts about his ability to lead effectively.
  3. There’s a chance he may not be the Republican nominee for the upcoming presidential election because of the ongoing issues.

The Democrats’ Messy Midterm Primaries. Plus. . .

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 375 implied HN points • 18 Dec 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Democrats are facing messy, high‑stakes primaries that show a sharp split between establishment progressives and newer, more radical insurgents in cities like San Francisco and New York.
  2. Iranian women and broader segments of society are openly defying mandatory veil laws and reviving long‑standing democratic currents, suggesting the regime is losing its ideological hold.
  3. Zohran Mamdani’s victory has exposed deep generational and familial rifts in Jewish communities, with many parents alarmed that their children supported his socialist and anti‑Israel positions.

Election Update 4: Hints of Panic and Rage, But It's Still Early

TK News by Matt Taibbi • 7521 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Campaigns
  1. Election night can be stressful and filled with mixed emotions for news anchors as they report on unfolding results. They try to keep things light but can still feel the pressure of the outcome.
  2. While some early results seem to favor one candidate, it's still too early to draw hard conclusions. The dynamics of voting can change as more votes come in.
  3. It's important to stay calm and not panic no matter the initial news. The election process has many twists and turns that can change the situation quickly.