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Weekend Update #117: OK, the War was not Ended on Tuesday--So what Now?

Phillips’s Newsletter • 198 implied HN points • 26 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy War Analysis Political Commentary International relations Political strategy
  1. Trump has made some comments suggesting he sees Russia as weaker than before, but he's still not supporting meaningful help for Ukraine. He focuses on getting a deal to stop fighting rather than ensuring Ukraine's security.
  2. There are mixed opinions about Ukraine's military situation. Some believe they have enough supplies to continue fighting, while others fear a collapse in the near future due to lack of support.
  3. Currently, Russian advances on the battlefield are very minimal. There is little change, indicating that the situation might not be as bad for Ukraine as some fear.

Trump’s D.I.Y. Deep State

Nonzero Newsletter • 304 implied HN points • 14 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Political strategy Trump administration International relations
  1. Donald Trump often talks against wars but hires people who support military actions when he's in office. His choices for foreign policy roles seem to contradict his campaign promises.
  2. Some believe Trump uses aggressive advisors to help him appear tougher, but this plan often backfires, making it hard for him to pursue peace initiatives.
  3. By surrounding himself with hardline individuals, Trump gives them influence over his decisions, which may lead him further away from the diplomatic approaches he claims to prefer.

Why Is Trump Suing the Media?

Common Sense with Bari Weiss • 524 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Media Law Public Opinion Political strategy
  1. Trump is suing media companies, claiming they misrepresented polling data in a way that influenced the election. He believes this was part of a broader scheme against him.
  2. The lawsuit against The Des Moines Register and its pollster stemmed from a misleading poll predicting a loss for him. He sees it as a significant error that affected public perception.
  3. This legal action appears to be part of Trump's strategy to challenge and punish media outlets that he feels have treated him unfairly or inaccurately.

Part I: Democrats' risk-aversion helped to re-elect Trump

Silver Bulletin • 761 implied HN points • 03 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Political strategy Political Analysis Democratic Party
  1. Democrats were too afraid to take risks during the campaign, which may have helped Trump win again. They were in a tough position but didn't try bold strategies to change the outcome.
  2. The campaign team didn't seem to understand the general public's feelings or what would attract voters. They focused too much on internal data instead of connecting with average people.
  3. Many decisions made during the campaign failed to create excitement or clear messaging. The candidates didn't have a strong, unique vision, making it hard to draw support from undecided voters.

Harris is flanking Trump on white male outreach

Jeff Giesea • 738 implied HN points • 06 Aug 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Identity politics Political strategy
  1. Kamala Harris's choice of Tim Walz as her running mate shows a strategy to appeal to straight white men. This move is seen as a way to reach a demographic that typically supports Trump.
  2. There is a belief that Walz's relatable personality and image could attract swing voters who might be on the fence about their political choices. Even small changes in voting patterns could have a big impact in the election.
  3. Harris could further connect with men by addressing their issues directly, which may help her campaign. Speaking on topics relevant to modern males could challenge the narrative and attract more support.
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the porkulous is dead

bad cattitude • 336 implied HN points • 19 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Legislation Social media Governance Public Opinion Political strategy
  1. Social media changed how people discuss and analyze big bills. Instead of waiting for Congress to pass a bill without scrutiny, people can now quickly share and dissect it online.
  2. More eyes on a problem means faster and better solutions. With many people looking at a bill, issues can be spotted and addressed almost instantly, making it harder for Congress to sneak in unwanted parts.
  3. The rise of social media has empowered everyday people to hold Congress accountable. Now, representatives who engage with social media can access real-time feedback from their constituents, leading to stronger governance.

This Election, Prepare for the Unexpected

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe • 3348 implied HN points • 01 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Law Political strategy Constitution Campaigns
  1. The outcome of the upcoming presidential election could be very unpredictable. Even if a candidate seems to win, a lot could still happen before they take office.
  2. There are serious questions about the rules governing how votes are counted and certified. Changes have been made to laws, but misunderstandings and disputes could complicate the process.
  3. The possibility of legal challenges is high if there's a conflict after the election. Various interpretations of laws can lead to confusion about who is actually president if issues arise.

Commentator

Castalia • 819 implied HN points • 28 Jun 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Debates Political strategy Leadership
  1. Biden needs to step aside as he is not adding any value to the Democratic campaign. If he does so, the party could hold a convention and choose a new candidate who might have a better chance against Trump.
  2. Biden's poor debate performance shows he may not realize how badly it went. It's important for influential people around him to help him see the truth for the good of the party.
  3. Even if the Democratic convention seems messy, it's a valid way to choose a candidate. The party has strong talent and could effectively challenge Trump if Biden makes way for someone new.

Who is allowed to practice identity politics?

Can We Still Govern? • 805 implied HN points • 10 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Identity politics Political strategy Election Analysis Media Critique
  1. Kamala Harris did not campaign on identity politics, even though many critics claim she did. Her campaign focused more on economic issues and policies rather than solely on identity-related topics.
  2. Donald Trump did use identity politics in his campaign by targeting specific groups negatively. He often painted immigrants and other marginalized groups as threats, which resonated with certain voter bases.
  3. The media tends to label identity politics as only a left-wing issue, ignoring how right-wing politics also play on group identities, especially among white Christian nationalists.

Is Trump America-Pilling the Left?

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 2730 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Election Dynamics Public Opinion
  1. Wokeness comes and goes in cycles. People and institutions eventually realize that extreme wokeness doesn’t work, leading to a decline in its popularity over time.
  2. Liberals are learning from past electoral losses and shifting their strategies. They're picking candidates who appeal to a broader base rather than sticking strictly to progressive views.
  3. Trump's actions have shifted the focus from racism to concerns about democracy. As fear of his anti-democratic tendencies grows, liberals may become more patriotic and moderate in their responses.

Commentator

Castalia • 639 implied HN points • 01 Jul 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Leadership Public Opinion Political strategy Campaigns
  1. Many Democrats feel that Biden should step aside for the next election, with polls showing a strong preference for a different candidate. The belief is that Biden's time as a leader may be coming to an end.
  2. Biden's team seems out of touch with public opinion and overestimates his connection with voters. They appear to believe that if they manage the media coverage well, it will change how people feel about him.
  3. There's a significant concern about Biden's age and health, with many questioning whether he can effectively lead. This has led to worries about who truly influences his decisions and whether his close circle is providing honest advice.

Organized and Coordinated Attacks

Points And Figures • 879 implied HN points • 03 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Election Process Party Dynamics Voter Behavior Media influence
  1. The Democratic Party operates in a top-down manner, allowing members to understand their roles without needing direct instruction. This structure helps them coordinate efforts effectively, especially during elections.
  2. Republicans are more decentralized, leading to a wider variety of beliefs and approaches. This can create challenges in organizing efforts like voter turnout compared to Democrats.
  3. Recent polls and media narratives might not accurately reflect voter sentiment, raising concerns about their credibility. Many believe that political manipulation and biased reporting can skew public perception ahead of elections.

The Battle to Shape Trump's China Policy

ChinaTalk • 622 implied HN points • 06 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Political strategy Party Dynamics International relations Trade policy
  1. Trump's China policy is uncertain and has many different viewpoints among his supporters. They all agree about China's importance but disagree on how to deal with it.
  2. There are two main debates: one about economic issues and the other about military and geopolitical strategies. People might agree on economic solutions but have different ideas on military actions.
  3. Some view the U.S. as strong and capable of taking on China, while others are more pessimistic and believe the U.S. needs to lower its ambitions. This difference shapes their ideas on how to approach U.S.-China relations.

January 6th was Successful

Unpopular Front • 114 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Constitutional Law Media Criticism Party Dynamics Political polarization
  1. The January 6th attack on the Capitol was seen as a political success for Trump. Even after the chaos, he managed to rally support among his followers.
  2. Trump's approach has shifted the political landscape, making opposition seem less credible. Some critics are now viewed as supportive of him, whether they realize it or not.
  3. There is a sense that Trump's actions have broken the systems of law and norms, leading to a more raw and partisan political environment, where traditional standards no longer apply.

Trump vs Kamala: Who's winning online?

Taylor Lorenz's Newsletter • 2179 implied HN points • 31 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Campaigns Social media Political strategy Public Opinion
  1. Trump is getting a lot more social media attention compared to Kamala, with nearly double the mentions. This shows he has a strong online presence.
  2. Most social media talks about the candidates are negative, but older voters seem to have a more positive view of Kamala. Younger people prefer Trump.
  3. Trump's approach focuses on longer content like podcasts, which helps him connect better with his audience. Kamala's shorter, snappy content may not build the same strong relationships.

Musk's Nazi Salute Was Carefully Planned Stage Craft!

C.O.P. Central Organizing Principle. • 36 implied HN points • 27 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Public Perception Media Critique International relations
  1. Musk's actions are seen as a deliberate move to influence and control political leaders. This suggests a deeper connection between big business and government decisions.
  2. The idea is presented that both Musk and Trump serve as distractions from serious issues, such as military spending and foreign conflicts.
  3. There's a belief that the consequences of recent actions in Gaza and Ukraine are being manipulated, shifting blame onto political figures rather than accountability for military and corporate interests.

penn and telling on themselves

bad cattitude • 236 implied HN points • 11 Dec 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Cognitive Bias Media influence Public Perception Behavioral Economics
  1. People often manipulate others by framing arguments to control how they are interpreted. It's important to recognize when this happens.
  2. Noticing manipulation techniques helps you see the truth and reduce their power over you. Asking critical questions can keep you grounded.
  3. Instead of trusting distant opinions, focus on building trust with close friends and family. This creates a solid foundation for your beliefs.

Fake Jobs and Fake Facts

Can We Still Govern? • 375 implied HN points • 25 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Government Legislation Political strategy Elections Public Policy
  1. Musk's claim that some government jobs are 'fake' highlights a misunderstanding of how important certain roles are in addressing public issues, like climate change. Real government work often goes unnoticed and underappreciated.
  2. The idea of restructuring government with big influence from private sector billionaires raises concerns about accountability and transparency. People worry that this could lead to a lack of proper checks and balances in government operations.
  3. Musk's plans to reduce federal regulations and budgets might sound appealing, but the legal and practical realities show it would be much harder to achieve than claimed. Many regulations require processes that can't just be ignored or wiped away.

Kill the Chicken to Scare the Monkey

Rob Henderson's Newsletter • 928 implied HN points • 03 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Identity politics Political strategy Cultural Issues Social movements Public Discourse
  1. Identity politics can be used to create fear and control within groups. This can lead to people feeling pressured to conform to certain beliefs.
  2. Groups often engage in public shaming or 'struggle sessions' to enforce conformity. This method makes individuals afraid to speak out or be different.
  3. Understanding these tactics can help individuals navigate social pressures better. Knowing how fear works in group dynamics can be empowering.

Is the press trying to help elect Trump?

georgelakoff • 1886 implied HN points • 10 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Media bias Presidential politics Political strategy Democracy issues
  1. Republicans aim to undermine Democrats by focusing on their human fallibilities rather than proving criminal acts.
  2. Democrats should avoid engaging with press narratives that benefit Republicans and instead push their own perspectives.
  3. The media's coverage can heavily influence public perception of politicians, so it's crucial for Democrats to focus on calling out misinformation and staying on track with their messaging.

Shadow Cabinet

Thinking about... • 888 implied HN points • 06 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Government Structure Media Relations
  1. A shadow cabinet can provide an alternate political voice to the ruling party. This would give citizens access to different viewpoints and expert opinions on government actions.
  2. The existence of a shadow cabinet could help reshape American politics by promoting positive change and daily dialogue, rather than just focusing on election seasons.
  3. Having a shadow cabinet would also support the media by providing named experts who can comment on government issues, helping journalists offer more informed and diverse perspectives.

DEMOCRATS ARE IN A PICKLE

TRANSFORM with Marianne Williamson • 1827 implied HN points • 11 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Democratic Party Republican party Political strategy
  1. Democrats are acknowledging concerns about President Biden's age and mental acuity more openly now after months of denial.
  2. The Biden campaign's focus on past achievements may not be enough to win over voters; a bold agenda for economic reform and new beginnings is recommended.
  3. In order to defeat Trump, Democrats need to offer a vision of a better future rather than just expecting voters to be grateful for the present.

Wellesley College, Patriotism, Social Anxiety

Rob Henderson's Newsletter • 1420 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Public Opinion Patriotism Social Issues
  1. Many people feel proud to be American and see the U.S. as a land of opportunity. This belief is especially strong among non-white voters.
  2. The differences in values about patriotism and crime among voters show a divide between party messaging and what many common people feel. It suggests that certain messages may not resonate with everyone.
  3. Open plan offices can increase stress and negative mood, leading to more sick days compared to traditional cubicles. This impacts worker well-being and productivity.

The Court of Trump

Comment is Freed • 69 implied HN points • 19 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political strategy Governance Political Figures Party Dynamics
  1. Trump often says things that confuse people, making it hard to know what he really means. This can cause chaos in politics and business.
  2. His team is often divided, with people competing for Trump's attention rather than working together. This creates a lot of turnover and instability.
  3. The people around Trump can greatly influence his decisions and policies, so it's important to watch those relationships to understand future conflicts.

Democrats Have an Opening on Housing

I Might Be Wrong • 6 implied HN points • 19 Feb 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Housing policy Voter Engagement Democratic Party
  1. Democrats need to focus on real issues that matter to people, like the challenges of daily life. Voters want solutions that help them achieve their goals.
  2. Messages that resonate include addressing high costs and job dissatisfaction. It's important for politicians to connect with what people are really experiencing.
  3. Being honest and genuine in messaging can be a good strategy. If a message is true and addresses real concerns, it can be more effective.

Why Israel Won’t Take the Win

Nonzero Newsletter • 519 implied HN points • 18 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Military Affairs Political strategy Elections International relations
  1. Israel has an opportunity to declare victory after the death of a key Hamas leader, which might allow for a ceasefire and de-escalation of conflict.
  2. The U.S. has sent troops and missile defense systems to Israel, but this support may encourage Israel to continue its aggressive actions rather than seek peace.
  3. There are concerns that U.S. military support for Israel could drag the U.S. into broader conflicts and worsen America's global reputation.

Democrats Are Still Getting Rolled by Their Interest Groups

Richard Hanania's Newsletter • 1462 implied HN points • 11 Oct 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Political parties Political strategy Labor relations
  1. Interest groups have a strong influence on the Democratic party, often guiding their decisions and actions.
  2. Political strategies focusing on character and rhetoric might overlook the importance of representing wider coalitions.
  3. Recent labor strikes, like the one involving longshoremen, highlight the challenges Democrats face when balancing interest group demands with broader voter concerns.

Here is why Joe Biden is skipping a Super Bowl interview

Erick Erickson's Confessions of a Political Junkie • 1498 implied HN points • 07 Feb 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Election Presidency Political strategy
  1. Joe Biden is skipping a Super Bowl interview for the second time due to difficulty handling questions and not wanting to debate Trump.
  2. Concerns about Biden's age and mental deterioration are rising among voters, even within the Democratic party.
  3. Biden's path to re-election may involve the GOP making mistakes, but relying solely on that is risky if one truly believes Trump is a threat to the republic.

In 2024: Old vs. Old and Unwell

Diane Francis • 899 implied HN points • 18 Mar 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Candidates Public Opinion Political strategy Media influence
  1. Both Biden and Trump are old, but age alone shouldn't be the main concern for voters. It's more important to look at their character and mental health.
  2. The media often focuses more on Biden's verbal slips than Trump's, even though both sometimes make mistakes. Age-related mistakes are normal and not always a sign of decline.
  3. Voters are worried about the future as both candidates face serious issues. The election shows a need for fresh competition instead of just choosing between these two older men.

January 28, 2025

Letters from an American • 24 implied HN points • 29 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Electoral Politics Civil Service Executive Power Foreign Aid
  1. Trump's Project 2025 aims to turn federal agencies into places with loyal supporters instead of nonpartisan civil servants. This plan seeks to expand presidential power and promote a strong executive control over the government.
  2. The new rules from Trump's administration allow him to remove civil service protections for many federal workers, forcing them to follow his orders or risk losing their jobs. This is seen as a significant threat to the independence of federal agencies like the Department of Justice.
  3. The Trump administration has paused federal grants and loans, creating uncertainty for many programs that aid communities. Critics argue this move undermines important services and threatens lives, showing a blatant disregard for laws established by Congress.

How Trump Will Use the Alien Enemies Act of 1798

JoeWrote • 51 implied HN points • 21 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Immigration Legislation Political strategy Authoritarianism Judiciary
  1. The Alien Enemies Act from 1798 allows the President to remove non-citizens from countries the U.S. is at war with. This means even legal immigrants could be sent away without a trial.
  2. Trump might use the idea of a 'national emergency' to frame immigrants as threats, leading to more aggressive deportation policies against various groups, even those who are legally present.
  3. Resistance to Trump's plans should focus on the larger issues of racism and anti-immigrant sentiments in America, not just oppose him as an individual leader.

Day one agenda items for the president-elect

The Dossier • 227 implied HN points • 14 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Executive orders Political strategy Government reform Health Policy National Security
  1. The president-elect should focus on removing policies related to DEI and ESG in the government. This means cleaning up programs that are seen as overly progressive.
  2. Taking care of military personnel affected by previous mandates should be a priority. Soldiers who faced penalties for not following vaccination orders deserve reinstatement and compensation.
  3. Using executive orders can help the new president quickly implement his agenda. This includes reversing previous harmful orders and tackling government waste effectively.

January 29, 2025

Letters from an American • 21 implied HN points • 30 Jan 25
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Political strategy Election politics Government Policy Public Opinion Media influence
  1. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt tried to shift blame for rising egg prices to Joe Biden, even though they started increasing well before his presidency. This shows how political blame games can distract from real issues.
  2. Trump's team is using tactics from past administrations, like Nixon's, that polarize people against their opponents, making it a strategy to rally their base, even if it risks hurting a lot of Americans.
  3. Recent actions, like Trump's funding freezes on important programs, highlight how some leaders prioritize political battles over helping people, causing confusion and fear among citizens about essential services.

A Little Bit of Everything

Fisted by Foucault • 180 implied HN points • 26 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Foreign Policy Elections International relations War Crimes Political strategy Populism
  1. The US is seeing some major changes in its foreign policy due to a new incoming administration, which could complicate the situation in Ukraine. This transition may affect how the US interacts with Russia and its allies.
  2. Recent arrest warrants by the ICC for world leaders, including Israel's Prime Minister, have raised questions about the fairness of international justice and America's role in it. This has made the US look hypocritical to other countries.
  3. Germany's economy is struggling, with job cuts and company shutdowns indicating a larger issue. Many Germans feel their country isn't what it used to be, leading to potential shifts in political support.

Charting the path forward: Some things that won't work anymore, and a few that might.

The Future, Now and Then • 185 implied HN points • 22 Nov 24
🇺🇸 U.S. Politics Elections Government Political strategy Legislation Civil Rights
  1. There are different possible futures with Trump's second term, ranging from merely bad to much worse. It's important to be aware of both outcomes and prepare accordingly.
  2. Strategies that worked against Trump in his first term may not be effective this time due to stronger control over institutions and a reduced attack surface.
  3. It's essential to focus on building resistance in blue states, highlighting the infighting in Trump's administration, and protecting vulnerable groups while playing the long game.