The hottest Risk Assessment Substack posts right now

And their main takeaways
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Top Finance Topics
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 09 Mar 20
  1. The coronavirus has significantly impacted global markets, causing a loss of around $7.3 trillion globally in just three weeks. Investors are clearly reacting strongly to the uncertainty surrounding the virus.
  2. Different sectors are feeling the effects of the market downturn unevenly. Industries like energy and finance have suffered the most while health care and utilities have remained more stable.
  3. Market behaviors suggest a movement towards larger companies as safer investments, but some smaller stocks have seen slight gains. This goes against the usual trend of investors flocking to larger entities during crises.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 26 Feb 20
  1. The recent market crisis is driven by fear stemming from the COVID-19 virus, which complicates predictions about economic impacts. Investors are feeling uncertain and need to approach their decisions with caution.
  2. Market drops can be alarming, but it's important to view them in the larger context of overall market performance. Regular investors might not see major changes in their portfolios over the long term despite recent losses.
  3. It's essential to rely on your own judgment when making investment decisions, especially during uncertain times. With ongoing developments regarding the virus, staying informed and adaptable is key.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 27 Jan 20
  1. The past decade saw strong growth in stocks, with the S&P 500 nearly tripling in value and a notable rise in bond returns as well. It was a great time for investors, especially those who held onto their portfolios.
  2. Interest rates dropped significantly during this period, influenced by both global economic conditions and central bank actions. Many believe these low rates are here to stay as the economy's fundamentals support them.
  3. Tech companies, particularly the FAANG group, led the stock market's rise, drastically increasing their market capitalization. This shift shows how important tech has become compared to traditional industries like energy.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 13 Jan 20
  1. Accessing raw data for companies is easy now, but choosing the right data sources and how to analyze it is important. It's like picking the best ingredients for a recipe.
  2. Using different types of data, like macro and micro data, helps provide a clearer picture of a company's financial health. Each type of data tells a part of the company's story.
  3. Data can be biased and misused, so it's important to look beyond just numbers. Making decisions based on data should include critical thinking and understanding the context.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 01 Oct 19
  1. The stock market has been strong despite bad news, but investors feel unsure and divided about the future. It’s hard to know whether to be optimistic or pessimistic right now.
  2. Some people worry that stocks are overpriced compared to history, but it's important to consider if earnings have also increased. Prices can be high, but that doesn't necessarily mean they’re not justified.
  3. A few big companies have driven a lot of the stock gains, which can be concerning. However, this concentration isn't new, and it often reflects changes in the economy and how businesses operate.
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Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 10 Feb 18
  1. In a market crisis, it's easy to lose perspective and panic. It's important to step back, assess the damage, and remember your long-term gains.
  2. Market drops can happen for different reasons, including fear, fundamentals like rising interest rates, or a reassessment of risk. Understanding the cause can help guide your decisions.
  3. Having a solid investment philosophy is key. Stick to your beliefs about investing, especially during turbulent times, and make decisions that align with your core principles.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 25 Jan 18
  1. Country risk affects a company's equity risk. It's important to look at where a company operates instead of just where it's based.
  2. Different countries have different levels of investment risk. Higher risks usually require higher returns to make them worthwhile.
  3. Companies' cost of capital should vary based on the geographic locations of their projects. So, a project in one country might have a different hurdle rate compared to another.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 01 Feb 17
  1. When companies decide how much debt to take on, it’s really important to think about both the good and the bad sides of debt. Debt can help a company save on taxes and keep managers in check, but it also increases the risk of financial problems.
  2. There are real benefits to using debt, like tax savings, but many people get distracted by myths about debt being better for returns. It's crucial to understand that higher debt can also raise costs, especially if companies run into trouble.
  3. Different industries handle debt in various ways. For example, companies in technology tend to use less debt, while capital-heavy industries, like trucking and telecom, often carry more. Understanding this can help investors see the bigger picture.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 04 Nov 16
  1. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis needs a discount rate, typically estimated using beta to assess risk, but not everyone agrees on using this method.
  2. Investors can use alternative risk measures if they don't like betas or modern portfolio theory, such as based on historical earnings or other company characteristics.
  3. It's important to recognize that while betas can help estimate costs of equity, there are other ways to evaluate risk that might better fit different viewpoints on investing.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 29 Jun 16
  1. Brexit caused big market reactions, with the British Pound losing value quickly against the US Dollar. This showed that currency fluctuations can signal larger economic issues.
  2. Experts were often wrong in their predictions about Brexit's consequences, leading many to distrust their advice. This highlights how people sometimes ignore experts in favor of their own beliefs.
  3. Stories matter more than numbers in shaping public opinion. The Leave campaign had a stronger narrative, which attracted more support compared to the Remain side's focus on statistics.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 20 Apr 16
  1. Valeant experienced rapid growth by acquiring other companies and raising drug prices, which attracted many investors. However, this model was risky and heavily relied on debt.
  2. The company's troubles began when it faced scrutiny over its pricing strategies and financial practices, leading to a significant drop in stock value. Without financial transparency, investors became concerned about its future.
  3. Valeant's management credibility waned amid delays in financial reports and legal issues, making it clear that the previous business approach could not be sustained. Investors now have to tread carefully, as the company's future is uncertain.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 01 Feb 16
  1. Global stock markets lost over $5 trillion in January 2016, mainly influenced by drops in China and falling oil prices. This marked an overall decline of about 8.42% in market value.
  2. The equity risk premium in the US was noted to be high during January, indicating increased market risk. This was driven by factors like high cash returns that exceeded earnings.
  3. Market impacts varied significantly by region and sector. China was hit hardest, while sectors like utilities and tobacco fared better compared to others like biotech and electronics.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 04 Jan 16
  1. In 2015, US equity markets showed resilience despite facing significant crises, with the S&P 500 ending almost unchanged, which is a positive outcome given the challenges.
  2. The equity risk premium (ERP) for stocks is currently at 6.12%, suggesting that investing in stocks might offer good returns compared to risk-free assets, but this is based on softer earnings than before.
  3. Caution is needed, as the current high ERP could drop if earnings fall or bond rates rise, so it's essential to keep an eye on these factors when investing.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 29 Jul 15
  1. Country risk should be considered in investment strategies. Riskier countries generally have lower price-to-earnings (PE) ratios compared to safer ones.
  2. Comparing different equity multiples can help find good investment opportunities. However, you must be careful as some outlier countries can skew the results.
  3. Using enterprise value multiples can be less affected by country risk, but may still not fully account for it. A good approach is to value and price companies together to make informed investment choices.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 11 Apr 15
  1. The idea of a small cap premium suggests that smaller companies can earn higher returns than larger ones, but the evidence for this is getting weaker. Recent studies show that the historical data is mixed and may not support this premium anymore.
  2. Investors often assume that small companies are riskier and expect higher returns because of this. However, current market prices are not reflecting a higher expected return for small cap stocks compared to large ones.
  3. Many analysts keep using the small cap premium because it's a common practice, not necessarily because it’s the best approach. It's important to question its use and consider other ways to evaluate the risks related to smaller companies.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 01 Feb 15
  1. Discounted cash flow (DCF) is a method to figure out what an asset is worth based on its expected future cash flows, adjusted for risk and time. It's more about the practice of valuation than complicated math.
  2. Many people find DCF intimidating because it's often overdone with unnecessary details or used as a sales tool. This can make it hard for others to trust or understand the process.
  3. Valuation is not perfect, and you'll probably make mistakes due to uncertainty. But that's okay; even experts struggle with predicting the future, and market values can change too.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 19 Jan 15
  1. In 2014, the US stock market did well but some emerging markets performed even better, suggesting potential opportunities elsewhere. It's important to think beyond just strong performers when investing, as the market can shift quickly.
  2. Country risk can be tricky to assess, and two common methods are looking at sovereign ratings and CDS spreads. These numbers help understand the risks investors face in different countries.
  3. Even risky markets can offer bargains if the prices are right. It's key for investors to consider both risk and potential return when evaluating global opportunities.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 03 Jan 15
  1. The equity risk premium (ERP) shows what investors expect to earn from stocks over risk-free investments like government bonds. It's a key measure of investor sentiment and market risk.
  2. In 2014, the ERP fluctuated around 5% but increased at the end of the year due to updated growth rates, indicating changes in how investors view risks for stocks.
  3. Looking ahead, there are three main risks for the markets: potential drops in earnings, changes in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, and global economic uncertainties that can impact stocks.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 16 Jun 14
  1. There are different types of people who warn about stock market bubbles, like Doomsday Bubblers and Rational Bubblers. Each type has its own view on whether we are in a bubble or not.
  2. A bubble can be defined as a situation where stock prices rise significantly without support from the actual company's earnings or fundamentals. It's important to notice the difference between a real bubble and just market fluctuations.
  3. Deciding whether to react to a potential bubble is tricky. You could either reduce your investment in stocks or try to profit from a correction, but both options have their own risks and costs.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 02 Jan 14
  1. Many people are worried that stocks might be in a bubble, but opinions vary on this. It's possible to see things differently depending on which metrics you focus on.
  2. The cash flow and growth from companies will help determine stock values. If companies continue to grow and generate cash, stock prices may hold steady.
  3. Investors need to be cautious about risks like rising interest rates or economic downturns. These factors can significantly affect stock prices and the overall market.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 05 Sep 13
  1. Tesla's current market value seems too high given its low revenue and operating loss. Many investors wonder if it can continue to grow without making profits soon.
  2. For Tesla to succeed, it needs to increase its revenues and eventually turn a profit. This requires a lot of investment in production and technology.
  3. The risks for Tesla are significant, especially due to market competition and its financial status as a young company. It might have a tough road ahead despite its high market price.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 30 Jul 13
  1. PE ratios help investors compare stock prices across countries, but many companies have negative earnings making PE less useful for them. It's important to consider the overall financial health of countries, not just their PE ratios.
  2. Price to book ratios can give a clearer picture of a company's value but should be used carefully. Countries with low price to book ratios might look cheap but could also have low returns, suggesting a deeper look is needed.
  3. Enterprise value to EBITDA multiples provide another way to assess company value, though they can sometimes show unexpected results. High returns on invested capital don't always align with high EV/EBITDA ratios, so understanding each country’s context is key.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 29 Jul 13
  1. Stocks in riskier areas usually have lower prices. This shows that investors want higher returns for taking on more risk in emerging markets compared to developed markets.
  2. There has been a noticeable trend where the prices and valuations of companies in emerging markets are starting to converge with those in developed markets. This is mainly due to falling prices in developed markets rather than significant gains in emerging markets.
  3. Investors should adjust their expectations for returns in emerging markets. These markets are becoming less risky, but they are not positioned to give the high returns that used to be expected.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 10 Jul 13
  1. Investors often forget about risks during good times but become overly worried during bad times, especially in emerging markets. Recently, many have realized that emerging markets have more risk than they thought.
  2. Sovereign ratings and default spreads are important for understanding country risks, but they are often slow to react to changes. This shows that emerging markets can be more vulnerable and that investors need to stay updated on these risks.
  3. The perception of risk is shifting back to where emerging markets are viewed as riskier compared to developed markets. This might mean investors should reconsider where to put their money, especially if they believe the adjustment in stock prices isn't enough to match the increased risks.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 28 Mar 13
  1. US stock markets are currently doing well, but investors should be cautious about potential downturns or corrections. It's important to stay informed and not just ride the wave of rising prices.
  2. Key factors determining stock prices are cash returned to investors, expected growth, risk-free rates, and risk premiums. Each of these plays a role in how we value and perceive stocks.
  3. Despite some risks, stock prices are elevated for good reasons: strong cash flows, decent growth prospects, and poor returns from alternative investments make staying in the market appealing.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 07 Feb 13
  1. Valuation and pricing are different. Valuation looks at a company's future cash flows, while pricing is affected by market supply and demand.
  2. Investors need to assess their confidence in the estimated value gap. A big gap doesn't guarantee a profitable investment without confidence in how or when it might close.
  3. Catalysts can help close the price and value gap. These can be actions by the company, market changes, or influential investors stirring up attention.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 13 Jan 13
  1. Some people use complex numbers to scare others into agreeing with them. You can fight this by sticking to common sense and focusing on the main idea.
  2. Data can be twisted to support a certain viewpoint by only showing what fits. Always check for the full picture before believing claims.
  3. Many analysts hide behind data instead of making tough decisions. It's better to personalize and adapt data to your own understanding rather than rely on generic numbers.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 17 Apr 12
  1. Nationalization can greatly affect the value of companies, especially in countries with unstable governments. Investors need to consider the risk of losing their ownership rights when valuing businesses in such places.
  2. To account for nationalization risk, investors can adjust their cash flow expectations or increase the required return on investments. This helps them understand how much risk they are taking.
  3. When valuing companies based on financial multiples, be careful, as firms in high-risk countries might seem cheap but can be risky investments. It's important to evaluate the real reasons behind these low valuations.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 27 Nov 11
  1. Diversification helps reduce risk in investing. It's generally better to spread your money across various investments instead of putting it all in one stock.
  2. Some investors completely avoid diversification and focus on a few stocks because they believe they have a better understanding of the market. However, this can be risky if they are overconfident.
  3. Research shows that most individual investors are not well diversified and often miss out on better returns by being overly concentrated in fewer stocks. Diversifying can lead to more stable and higher returns overall.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 06 Aug 11
  1. A ratings downgrade doesn't bring new information; it's usually something people already knew. Instead of panicking, it's best to recognize the downgrade as confirmation of existing issues.
  2. Ratings agencies measure risk but don’t provide real solutions. It's important to remember they are not decision-makers, and relying on them could hurt long-term planning.
  3. The downgrade can actually offer a chance to focus on better decision-making. Instead of being fixated on maintaining ratings, leaders can prioritize effective policies that improve the economy.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 16 Apr 11
  1. Margin of Safety (MOS) is used at the end of the investment process, only after finding good companies and estimating their value. It's not helpful to think about MOS earlier in the process.
  2. MOS enhances risk assessment and intrinsic valuation but doesn’t replace them. You still need good estimates of value to use MOS effectively.
  3. The MOS should vary based on how certain you are about the intrinsic value. It's not a fixed number, as different stocks and situations come with different levels of uncertainty.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 26 Dec 10
  1. When picking assets, consider how liquid they are. More liquid assets are often a better choice for those needing quick access to cash.
  2. To evaluate illiquid assets, you can adjust their value down by using an 'illiquidity discount' or increase their risk by raising the discount rate.
  3. Using relative valuation involves screening for both cheap stocks and those that are more liquid, helping avoid investments in hard-to-sell assets.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 24 Dec 10
  1. Illiquidity affects all stocks, not just a few, which can lead to challenges in investment decisions. It's important to understand that even seemingly liquid markets can experience periods of illiquidity.
  2. When deciding how to allocate assets, it's crucial to consider the potential underestimation of risks associated with illiquid assets. Ignoring this can result in poor investment choices.
  3. Investors should tailor their asset allocation based on their need for liquidity. Those who prefer more liquidity might focus on large, stable assets, while others might benefit from investing in less liquid ones.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 21 Dec 10
  1. All assets are considered illiquid, meaning they can't always be sold quickly at their current price without costs involved. This changes how we understand and measure the value of assets.
  2. Illiquidity varies between different asset classes, like real estate being less liquid compared to stocks and bonds. Some stocks are also more liquid based on their size and price.
  3. Investors care about liquidity because it affects asset prices and returns. Illiquid assets tend to have lower prices and higher expected returns, especially during market crises.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 19 Nov 10
  1. Risk taking should be judged not just by the outcome but also by the process and information available at the time. Good decisions can sometimes lead to bad outcomes, and bad decisions can lead to success.
  2. It's important to consider the side effects of risk taking, like how it impacts others. A decision might be profitable for one person but harmful to society as a whole.
  3. How we reward or punish risk taking now can influence future behavior. If taking risks is consistently rewarded, more people will take risks in the future.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 19 Sep 10
  1. Investors often ignore the warning that past performance doesn't predict future success, and many still chase after funds that have done well recently.
  2. Successful investing usually depends more on how assets are allocated rather than just picking individual stocks.
  3. Momentum investing can be risky, as knowing when to sell is just as important, if not more so, than when to buy.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 06 Feb 10
  1. Understanding the risk-free rate is crucial for evaluating investments. You need to know what you can safely earn over time to make sound financial decisions.
  2. Typically, the US Treasury bond rate is used as the risk-free rate because it's considered default-free. However, there's still a chance that this could change, as even the US could face downgrades.
  3. Different countries have different risk-free rates based on their bonds. This means that to compare rates globally, we should account for expected inflation and default risks.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 31 Jan 10
  1. Emerging markets are seeing more companies being publicly traded, which makes their financial markets grow and become stronger. This is especially true in big economies like India, China, and Brazil.
  2. Liquidity issues are now affecting both emerging and developed markets, showing that crises can happen anywhere. Emerging markets are becoming more liquid as local investor bases expand.
  3. The risk of government default is being reconsidered, as some developed market governments show vulnerabilities. People are starting to value companies in emerging markets more based on their fundamentals rather than government risks.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 09 Jan 10
  1. Risk premiums have returned to pre-crisis levels, which has also led to an increase in stock multiples. This means investors are feeling less cautious now.
  2. The median Price Earnings (PE) ratio for US stocks improved significantly from its low point in 2009, showing a recovery in the market.
  3. The change in stock multiples is linked to investor risk appetite, and understanding this is key when deciding if a stock is cheap or expensive.
Musings on Markets β€’ 0 implied HN points β€’ 08 Jan 10
  1. The author updates datasets for companies from different regions each year, focusing on risk, profitability, and debt measures.
  2. This year's updates include new data for Indian and Chinese companies, expanding the coverage of the datasets.
  3. Future blog posts will discuss what these updates reveal about global companies and markets.